by Cliff Corcoran |
November 8, 2005 7:22 am |
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The Baseball Writers Association of America is off to a solid start this awards season, having chosen Hudson Street and Ryan Howard, two deserving candidates, as the Rookie of the Year in the AL and NL respectively. Of course, one need look no further than the second place finishers to see that those selections are not necessarily evidence of sound objective analysis throughout the BBWAA. Today, the American League Cy Young Award will be announced. So, before our ink and paper friends give us something to complain about, let’s take a good look at the candidates.
Looking at the traditional “triple crown” statistics (wins, strikeouts, ERA), as many writers are sure to do, there is no clear favorite in the American League. The league’s only 20-game winner, Bartolo Colon (21-8) struck out just 157 and posted a less-than-exciting 3.48 ERA. ERA leader Kevin Millwood (2.86) actually posted a losing record (9-11) for the 93-69 Cleveland Indians. Meanwhile, strikeout leader Johan Santana won a “mere” 16 games.
Santana’s win total is significant because no starting pitcher has ever won a Cy Young Award in a non-strike year with fewer than 17 wins, and only Randy Johnson in 1999 and Pedro Martinez in 1997, both in the NL, ever won the award with as few as 17 wins. In those two cases, Martinez struck out more than 300 with an ERA below 2.00, while Johnson struck out 364 men, 126 more than Santana did this year (238), with an ERA almost a half-run better than Santana’s 2.87.
History aside, Santana, who won the award last year with a 20-6 record, was once again easily the best pitcher in the American League in 2005. Here’s a look at Santana and his five closest competitors:
| Name |
W-L |
SO |
ERA |
ERA+ |
WHIP |
H/9 |
HR/9 |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
VORP |
RSAA |
| Johan Santana |
16-7 |
238 |
2.87 |
153 |
0.97 |
6.99 |
0.85 |
9.25 |
1.75 |
73.0 |
39 |
| Bartolo Colon |
21-8 |
157 |
3.48 |
120 |
1.16 |
8.69 |
1.05 |
6.35 |
1.74 |
51.1 |
17 |
| Jon Garland |
18-10 |
115 |
3.50 |
127 |
1.17 |
8.63 |
1.06 |
4.68 |
1.91 |
50.1 |
26 |
| Mark Buehrle |
16-8 |
149 |
3.63 |
143 |
1.18 |
9.13 |
0.76 |
5.67 |
1.52 |
54.2 |
36 |
| Kevin Millwood |
9-11 |
146 |
2.86 |
143 |
1.22 |
8.53 |
0.94 |
6.84 |
2.44 |
52.3 |
26 |
| John Lackey |
14-5 |
199 |
3.44 |
122 |
1.33 |
8.96 |
0.56 |
7.04 |
2.88 |
50.3 |
13 |
(more…)