Daily Archives: November 10, 2005

As went the American League Cy Young Award, so shall go the National League Cy Young. Last year’s winner was clearly the best pitcher in the league, but won’t win the award due to an unsatisfactory win total:

There are two reasons that Roger Clemens not winning this award will be less troubling than Johan Santana not winning in the AL. The first is that, while both pitchers took home the award in 2004, only Santana deserved it. Randy Johnson was easily the best pitcher in the National League in 2004, but, as we learned when discussing Santana’s case this year, his 16 wins simply weren’t enough. Instead the award went to the 18-4 Clemens, marking the second time this decade that Clemens had won a Cy Young award that should have gone to someone else (the other being the 2001 AL award, which Clemens won with a 20-3 record despite being clearly inferior to the 17-11 Mike Mussina). As a result, I won’t cry any tears over the fact that the Rocket won’t win his eighth Cy Young when he should only be winning his sixth.

What also makes Clemens not winning this award easier to take than Santana not winning in the AL is that the NL race is much tighter. Eliminating Clemens from the discussion, a solid case could be made for any of the remaining four pitchers on the chart above. Pettitte is second in ERA, ERA+ and VORP and leads in BB/9. Pedro Martinez leads in WHIP and K/9. Carpenter leads in strikeouts and is second to Pedro and Pettitte respectively in K/9 and BB/9. Willis leads in wins and HR/9 and is a surprisingly close second in RSAA, he also lead the majors with five shutouts and seven complete games.

Of course, wins are a team-dependent stat, and Willis’s HR/9 is a result of pitching in an extreme pitchers park. His RSAA is attractive, but he’s worst on this list in loses, Ks, WHIP, H/9 and K/9. Martinez, meanwhile, is worst in ERA+ (again due to pitching in a pitchers park), HR/9, VORP and RSAA.

Eliminating those two boils it down to Carpenter and Pettitte. Of the two, Pettitte has the better VORP, Carpenter the better RSAA. Their WHIPs, H/9, HR/9, and K/BB (4.17 and 4.18) are all nearly identical. Pettitte has a clear lead in ERA and ERA+, but Carpenter has the more attractive record and the even more eye-pleasing triple crown stats that all start with 2s (20 wins, 200 Ks, sub-3.00 ERA). Carpenter also tied Willis with 7 shutouts and finished one behind Dontrelle with four shutouts. The temptation is to favor Pettitte because he pitches his home games in an extreme hitters park, but shockingly the Juice Box played as a slight pitchers park this year (park factor of 98 to a 101 for Busch in its final season). With that in mind, it’s really a coin flip as to who the second best pitcher in the National League was this year. I’m fairly certain the writers will choose Carpenter. If so, I won’t complain.

“Absolutely, staying with the Yankees is my first priority,” [Hideki] Matsui told Sankei Sports. “But I want to feel that the Yankees really need me. I want to be respected. If I feel the Yankees do not need me anymore, I am ready to [talk to another team].”
(Hartford Courant)

Brian Cashman met with Hideki Matsui’s agent, Arm Tellem last night (in an editorial today in the Times, Murray Chass explains why Tellem is such a shrewd operator). It is expected that Matsui will remain in New York, but he won’t be a bargain. While Joe Torre has acknowledged that Matsui is most comfortable in center field, it is unlikely that the Bombers will go that route. Well, how about Rafael Furcal? Say again? Well, according to Ken Rosenthal:

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman asked one of Furcal’s representatives if Furcal would be willing to play center. Furcal, 28, likely will rule nothing out at this early stage of free agency — he routinely shags fly balls with Braves teammate Andruw Jones and jokes about replacing him in center. He not only is athletic enough to play the position, but also could bat leadoff for the Yankees, forming a dynamic 1-2 combination with Derek Jeter.

Even if the Yankees aren’t completely serious — and when are they not? — the high demand for Furcal almost certainly will enable him to land a five-year contract and possibly a six-year deal.

That’s rich, huh? Meanwhile, Joe Torre tells Daily News Yankee writer Anthony McCarron, that he’s spoken with Bernie Williams:

The two old friends had played phone tag for about a week before finally talking yesterday and Joe Torre came away with the sense that Bernie Williams wanted to continue his career as a Yankee, though Williams knows that he’d be a sub rather than the team’s starting center fielder.

…”I think he’d like to stay. Nobody’s making commitments either way and he knows center field isn’t what I’ve had for 10years, where he’s been the first man on the field…. I sense that he wants to come back in a different role.”

In the same article, Torre also endorsed the idea of giving Andy Phillips an opportunity to be the second-string first baseman.