http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/8/656639/2008-ss-defense-by-pmr

of guys that got significant playing time there (over 2000 plays) there were 13 SS that saved more runs than Jeter. and 8 worse.

So while he wasn’t good, at least from PMR’s standpoint he wasn’t “clearly the worse” at all. he was about 3 runs worse. the worest was David Eckstien’s unfathomable -30 runs

In any sense, I think your overlooking the problem of replacement levels. while there will most likely be years on any long contracts that the player under perform his bill, the alternatives may not be any better. and even if they are, it’s almost impossible to find anywhere close to the production in the other years.

On the other hand. Jeter’s contract is up in 2010, there is no real point in moving him RIGHT NOW. while I feel that moving him after his current contract certainly make sense.

As for player declines there are a lot of maybes and ifs there, BR similar player is nice enough , but it would be a pretty poor idea to bank on it for your future plans. I’d raise the example that if you think Mark Teixeira’s comparables are bad, you might want to check out Nick Swisher’s which would suggest that he would most likely be DFAed … NEXT YEAR. and while Furcal have some nice comps (Biggio and Molitor ) he also have even more scary comps like Jay Bell, Jason Kendell , Woody English etc… and really, he’s not Craig Biggio, Aside from this year’s limited small sample size, he’s highest full season OBP is .369 , Biggio had a 10 year stretch over where he was well over .370.

It takes account into # and birthdays, it doesn’t take into account of your physical condition and any other factor that doesn’t reflect on your stats (are you a drunk? are you on roids? one of Jason Marquis’ most comparable pitcher is Corey Lidle, does that mean he’ll ram a airplane into an apartment building?)

The problems with your assesment is going for a low risk approach, we’re not really sure how much lower that risk is, but we are sure the potential upside is eons lower.

Correct me if I am wrong, but is not FRAA position-dependent, but BRAA not position-dependent. if so, you can’t simply subtract one from the other.

I’m not sure I see the fundamental difference between Tex for 4@25 or 6@20. The worst case scenario is that he shits out for the last two years, at which point the team could bench him or even cut him. The cost would be 20 million, or an average less tan four million per year over the life of the contract. In fact, one could make a good case that the extra 20 million is a very good gamble on the chance that he remains productive at age 34 and 35.

Again, no one is saying sign the man for 10 years at 200 million or more, but you’re sort of splitting hairs when you differentiate between 4/100 and 6/120.

It is. But Giambi was only a 1B because they had a logjam at DH and going back for three years. Compare with the Red Sox. Ortiz is a below average 1B, but he doesn’t have to play there because they have roster flexibility otherwise – a 1B in Youkilis that can play 3B or LF. If Lowell’s mobility is hindered in 2009, then they’ll have a similar jogajm especially since Ortiz’s mobility is hindered too.

Compared to Replacement he’s at a 5.3 WARP3.

Watching the games, rather than the box scores, shows Jeter to be a significantly below average fielder. He’s two steps behind balls that the average shortstop gets.

But when in doubt, look across the stats. Dewan, Pinto, and BP all show Jeter to clearly be the worst defensive SS in baseball. His defense will be even worse this year (look at the trendline). If his bat doesn’t improve, he’s a net negative.

One more point: Overpaying for a fourth year, when you have no other choices, is one thing (Matsui, Damon, Jorge). Overpaying for a fifth and sixth year is something else entirely.

Here’s something I could get behind: Offer Teixeira 100 million over 4 years. No other team will give him more than 20 million AAV, so in a sense he gets paid for an extra year while going back on the market one year early. Make him choose to take a six-year 120 million deal (from the Angels or Orioles) or a four years at 100 million from the Yanks.

I have a strong feeling you’re going to be blessed with my presence.

@64

Except he’s rapidly getting much worse. He couldn’t field the position last year.

Actually Teixeira’s glove is average.

I said CC, Manny (no one’s giving him four years – it’s between the Yanks and Dodgers. Who would sign him for four years? Not the Angels. Not the Red Sox. Who?), and Pettitte or Moose.

There’s no chance in hell that Jeter’s glove is above average. It’s not even close really, so that ranking is pure farce.

@62

Furcal can still go to his left and right. SS is the most valuable position on the field and we have a guy at -18 FRAA.

@63

Ah, yes, except you’re plain wrong. Let’s see how many times we can go back and forth with that statement. Giambi was more properly a DH and one who had two terrible seasons at 20 million per.

Hopefully the choice in 2012 is A-Rod AND Pujols for 1B/DH .

I simply can’t believe that after what this team has gone through with Giambi the last four seasons:

1. Never knowing what to expect year-to-year. Because 1Bs age very quickly – see Teixeira’s top comps.
2. Needing a LIDR for 1B. So the manager takes out a big hitter for a no-glove fielder only to have the game go to extra innings.
3. Having a guy who had to play 1B because the DH slot was already clogged with overpriced and rapidly declining veterans (Jeter, Posada, Damon, Matsui, soon A-Rod).

Folks want to repeat that experiment on another long and overpriced contract? Wow.

Let’s see:

A) take the better hitter on a contract half as long (Manny)
B) take the worse hitter on a contract twice as long (Teixeira)

And folks are ch-ch-choosing (B)? Wow.

Tex has a carrer OPS+ of 134, and 150 in his last 2 years. That ain’t Bond/ARod/Pujlos territory, but it’s still pretty damn good… and that’s added to an above average glove.

While your logic has valid points, if we apply it, we will NEVER get an impact FA. Impact FAs are in demand, there is always one team willing to overpay, and BY DEFINITION, they are overpriced in their prime and WAY overpriced in their decline. This is just the nature of the beast. The last GOOD deal on an impact FA might have been Manny or Vlad…. and those were some time ago.

Why do you think Cashman has stayed away in the last 3 years and is focusing on the farm? FAs are an inefficent way to build a team. But a winning team needs one or more, and as I said in [19], because of the Yankees situation, we have little choice IF WE WANT TO WIN now.

So what is your suggestion??? Please tell us your alternative. Say No to Tex, CC, AJ, and all the other overpriced/long contract guys? Manny for 4/$90? Are you willing to accept this team if they finish 3rd for the next 2 years?

We have to admit 4 years of Posada was a waste… but it’s only money. If he can’t throw, we DH him. Matsui is gone after this year and unless we go out of of way to GET a DH, Po can DH 120 games and catch 30 selected games. We all love Po, but we have have him as a DH as long as he can post a .850ish OPS.

When all the worry about moving Jeter and ARod. The vast majority of SS’s and 3B’s throughout history, remained at their positions until they retired. They are simply not as productive in their last years.

Cliff and Alex… I wih you would post POLLS on this site. We could see where people stand on issues, and better yet, check back in future years to see how ‘good’ we were.

My Poll;
If we only signed ONE(non-Yankee) FA who would it be? I say Tex. My guess is the Banter is 50/50, Tex/CC (assuming we sign Andy or Moose).
If we signed TWO (non-Yankee) FAs who would it be? I say Tex and CC. My guess is the Banter is 90/10, Tex and CC.
Should we sign AJ? I say NO. My guess is 80+% of the Banter agrees.
Should we sign MORE then TWO FAs this year? I say NO. I’ll guess 70+% of the Banter agrees.

And for fun, here is the table summarizing what RLYW ran, showing Jeter the most valuable SS in the AL as of mid-September:

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/al_shortstop_run_values_through_sept_14_2008

Replacement Level Yankee ran the numbers on Jeter for last year, and he was a net positive–probably the most valuable SS in the AL.

Using Furcal’s freaky 160 PAs before injury last season as a comparison, as opposed to the entire rest of his career (which is significantly worse than Jeter’s) is lousy methodology.

I grow weary of this.