vs.

Basically every analysis I read last year had Jeter playing at or near average defense, a far improvement over his terrible 2007 season.

Congrats. You’re now arguing with yourself. Or else you don’t know the meaning of the words “poor” and “average”

Now:

Last season his bat still made up for his glove (though his fielding was somewhat better last year, his hitting worse)

1. His fielding certainly wasn’t better. More evidence suggests it was much, much worse (like a -18 FRAA). Even 16th among qualified SS in RF is far *below* average since there aren’t 30 qualified shortstops.
2. He was an average bat last year (104 OPS+).
3. A well-below average glove at the most important defensive position plus an average bat equals a below average player. Given that, he’s a net negative to the team. And it isn’t even close really.

Now what makes that James study so damning is exactly the fact that it is a few years old at this point. Jeter’s glove and offense have each gotten significantly worse since then. An all-glove SS would be an upgrade at the position. If the Yanks were smart, they’d move him to 1B right now and hope his bat would recover some. But take his glove out behind the barn and shoot it in the head.

To continue: last year, Jeter ranked 7th in MLB in ZR and 16th in RF among qualified SS. Again, middle of the pack (admittedly “good” by his usual poor standards).

Plus, I re-read the James article that you quoted, which uses evidence almost exclusively from 2005 to compare Jeter (the worst) to Everett (the best fielding SS). Even in this extreme comparison James also concluded that Jeter’s bat made up for the difference between his and Everett’s gloves. And that is comparing him to the best fielding SS at the time, not even to an average fielding SS. Last season, by comparison, Cesar Izturis led the league in RF and was near the top in ZR…he also had 44 RC. Jeter, despite suffering his worst offensive season in decade had 85 RC.

Among qualified SS last season, Jeter was 9th in RC and 9th in RC/27 (3rd and 2nd respectively in the AL), 9th in OPS (3rd in the AL). He was still one of the better hitting SS in the league, and one of the best in the AL.

No one here debates that Jeter is overall a poor fielding SS. The real question is whether his fielding negatively outweighs his offense at his position. Last season his bat still made up for his glove (though his fielding was somewhat better last year, his hitting worse). If his fielding declines and/or his hitting does not bounce back, then maybe he will have reached the tipping point. But if that’s the case, then 1B probably will not be the solution anyway.

Which is what I have argued all along.

You invoke Palin, which is sort of ironic, since your arguments seem to contain Palinesque exaggerations and black-and-white dichotomies.

“Basically every analysis I read last year had Jeter playing at or near average defense, a far improvement over his terrible 2007 season.”

Now, after showing, by significantly expanding your reading list, how far below average he actually is, and has been for a few years now and only getting worse, you’re saying:

“Wow, so you just proved…what I have basically said all along.”

Are you high or something? That’s a Palinesque level of ignoring reality and that by saying otherwise you can change that reality.

Wow, so you just proved…what I have basically said all along. What the Gospel according to James does not confirm, is your contention that Jeter is by far the worst defensive SS, so bad that he negates all offensive benefits that his bat brings.

“Giving him every possible break on the unknowns, [Jeter] is still going to emerge as a below average defensive shortstop. ”

Case closed.

Baseball Prospectus:
2007: -3 FRAA; 98 RATE
2008: -18 FRAA; 87 RATE
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/jeterde01.php

Fielding Bible:
2007: -34
2008: -12
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/2008-plus-minus-leaders.asp

Dave Pinto:
2007: 91.20 (second to last)
2008: 99.20 (only Pinto is showing an improvement)

Then, of course, there’s this damning piece which seals the deal:
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/jeter.asp

What have you been reading?

“Then there’s absolutely no reason to sign him with Manny on the market.”

Perhaps. But I also think that there is a decent chance that Teixera is still relatively productive in years 5-6, and I think that there is a very good chance that he outperforms Manny in years 3-4. It’s all about risks and rewards. I would overpay for Teixeira up to six years. I’m prepared for the worst (4 good and 2 not good) and hopeful for the best (6 very good).

@46

” Five years at $100 mill? I’d be a lot more interested. Eight years at $150? No thanks.”

So then we are bickering over details. You say five years is the limt, I say six. We both agree eight is out (see comments at #42).

@47

“It used to be that as players aged they moved to less demanding positions, with 1B at the last stop before retirement.”

Only if their bat carried the position. Otherwise they were out of the league. Players did not automatically shift positions.

@ 44

“Sorry, but you’re dead wrong on Jeter. The list from RLYWL had him as a plus on defense. There’s no way in hell that’s true. ”

Basically every analysis I read last year had Jeter playing at or near average defense, a far improvement over his terrible 2007 season. Maybe 2007 was caused by injury. Maybe 2008 was a fluke. I imagine it is a little of both. But I accept that the numbers showed that Jater was just not that bad on defense *last year*. If you refuse to accept that, so be it…we’ll agree to disagree.

Now, even if one accepts my position, we’ll see how he does this season and next. We’ll also see how he does with the stick. If his bat continues to decline, then there is no reason to move him to 1B regardless of his defense.

Probably too late for anyone to read, but I wonder if Jeter to 2B might be an option, depending on how Cano doe or does not work out.

“The argument is that the Yankees have a couple of potential 1B types already and there’s no compelling reason, to me, to overpay a guy in order to firmly affix a him there for the next 6 or more years.”

Exactly.

The bit about defensive spectrum is also gold. Why do people miss this point so often? It used to be that as players aged they moved to less demanding positions, with 1B at the last stop before retirement. Now folks – teams and fans – only see players in one position, defense be damned. With an older 1B like Tex, there’s really no place left for him to go because his bat isn’t good enough to be a strict DH when he’s done being somewhat limber.

They should be judicious, not dogmatic.

Absolutely, and a perfectly fair and judicious argument is that money shouldn’t be spent for premium players on the far right of the defensive spectrum at 1B. It’s easier to acquire decent hitters for cheap at that position while investing resources for more difficult positions to fill with premium players. It’s not a weak argument by any means. Five years at $100 mill? I’d be a lot more interested. Eight years at $150? No thanks.

The argument is that the Yankees have a couple of potential 1B types already and there’s no compelling reason, to me, to overpay a guy in order to firmly affix a him there for the next 6 or more years.

Cliff argues that because the Yankees have pitching talent they should hold on to it and pursue hitting regardless of position. I say pursue unique pitching talents and trade for young positional talents on the left side of the defensive spectrum. Meh, we shall see and the Yankees being the Yankees, I see a couple of massive free agent signings coming soon.

Then there’s absolutely no reason to sign him with Manny on the market. The Yanks would get a better bat for the first three years, the same defense as Abreu, and the same defense at first with Swisher. Signing Manny to a three year deal, since no team will give him four years, put them back on the market in 2012 for another slugger. Wouldn’t you know, one Albert Pujols is a free agent then.

I couldn’t agree more.

@41

Sorry, but you’re dead wrong on Jeter. The list from RLYWL had him as a plus on defense. There’s no way in hell that’s true. Besides, at least Aviles was better. And there’s an argument for Peralta too. Worse for your case, both of them can still field the position. Jeter is at a -18 FRAA. He’s a 1B/DH right now.

The point is:

In 2009, they already have guys that (realistically) will need time at 1B/DH (Matsui, Damon, Posada, Jeter).
In 2010, they already have guys that (realistically) will need time at 1B/DH (Posada, Jeter).
In 2011, they already have guys that (realistically) will need time at 1B/DH (Jeter if you want him getting 3000 hits in pinstripes rather than with the Tigers).
In 2012, they already have guys that (realistically) will need time at 1B/DH (A-Rod).

The roster is clogged during, supposedly, the best years of Teixeira’s next contract. Teixieira for six years IS inherently bad. We’ve just been discussing one of the reasons. The other two – which you’ve conveniently ignored – are @2.

You’re new to these threads, so you missed all of my posts last season arguing against Teixeira if it meant a seven, eight or (gasp) ten-year deal. I think six is the outer limit, fully expecting that the last two are likely to see performance under value.

Actually, if it were me, I accepted Giambi’s option for next year and taken my chances with him repeating this season. But they didn’t, so I am arguing from the current reality. Given the market and the team needs, and the salaries coming off the books, and the contracts coming off in the next two seasons, I think Teixera is the best route to go (for six years max).

“Because he’s essentially getting a 4-year deal starting in his age 31 season?”

Even so, how would a four-year deal for a 31 y.o. 1B be comparable in badness to a four-year deal for a 37 y.o. catcher.

Posada’s deal was very, very risky indeed. But just because the Yankees made a (likely) terrible gamble on a 36/37 y.o. catcher should not mean that they should never sign 28/29 y.o. players to deals of six years. They should be judicious, not dogmatic.

heck, I’m not even all that sold on Teixera (read back through threads last season: I repeatedly expressed doubts). But most of the arguments raised against signing him to six years (especially the keep-first-base-open-for-future-old-players) have been very weak.

I did not mean to say that *you* were unfair. I meant that your comparison was unfair (that is, a poor comparison). Anyway, Jeter is simply not a 1B/DH type: I reject this premise outright. He was last season the most valuable SS in the AL, and one of the top 25% most valuable in the league. He is a poor defender who, in his worst season, still out-hits his position.

In any case, your argument seems now to be shifting to: the team should not sign Teixera for six years (for example) largely because they are still living with a number of bad four-year deals. In other words, Teix for six years is not inherently bad, but rather is prevented by past bad contracts. I might be convinced by this, though it means, effectively, that the team would be paralyzed until all of the bad contracts are off the books.

Because he’s essentially getting a 4-year deal starting in his age 31 season? If a player follows a typical career path, the years of the best offensive ability are between 26-30. I don’t doubt that Teixeria is a very good hitter that will likely produce well into his 30s, but don’t waste money/years/roster space on a 1B just because he’s the best thing going this year.

I’m of the opinion that money and years are not invested properly in premium first basemen. Economic leverage is better suited for positional players further left on the defensive spectrum (like A-Rod or Beltran). A league average 1B can be had relatively cheaply. It’s not a glory position and having an elite there isn’t all that much of an upgrade. Having an outfield that can play defense is much more important to me. A-Rod will be a 1B very soon.

The bonus to signing a solid talent like Sabathia is that talented young pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball. The Yankees have loads of it and could convert some of that talent into a legitimate positional hitter and enjoy all the years of peak productivity, instead of the last half. If they know that they have legit ace on board (followed by, hopefully, Joba blossoming into another legit ace) trades of minor league pitching talent can be made (e.g., sign Sabathia, Hughes goes to TX for Saltamacchia, Posada goes to 1B).