vs.

Basically every analysis I read last year had Jeter playing at or near average defense, a far improvement over his terrible 2007 season.

Congrats. You’re now arguing with yourself. Or else you don’t know the meaning of the words “poor” and “average”

Now:

Last season his bat still made up for his glove (though his fielding was somewhat better last year, his hitting worse)

1. His fielding certainly wasn’t better. More evidence suggests it was much, much worse (like a -18 FRAA). Even 16th among qualified SS in RF is far *below* average since there aren’t 30 qualified shortstops.
2. He was an average bat last year (104 OPS+).
3. A well-below average glove at the most important defensive position plus an average bat equals a below average player. Given that, he’s a net negative to the team. And it isn’t even close really.

Now what makes that James study so damning is exactly the fact that it is a few years old at this point. Jeter’s glove and offense have each gotten significantly worse since then. An all-glove SS would be an upgrade at the position. If the Yanks were smart, they’d move him to 1B right now and hope his bat would recover some. But take his glove out behind the barn and shoot it in the head.

To continue: last year, Jeter ranked 7th in MLB in ZR and 16th in RF among qualified SS. Again, middle of the pack (admittedly “good” by his usual poor standards).

Plus, I re-read the James article that you quoted, which uses evidence almost exclusively from 2005 to compare Jeter (the worst) to Everett (the best fielding SS). Even in this extreme comparison James also concluded that Jeter’s bat made up for the difference between his and Everett’s gloves. And that is comparing him to the best fielding SS at the time, not even to an average fielding SS. Last season, by comparison, Cesar Izturis led the league in RF and was near the top in ZR…he also had 44 RC. Jeter, despite suffering his worst offensive season in decade had 85 RC.

Among qualified SS last season, Jeter was 9th in RC and 9th in RC/27 (3rd and 2nd respectively in the AL), 9th in OPS (3rd in the AL). He was still one of the better hitting SS in the league, and one of the best in the AL.

No one here debates that Jeter is overall a poor fielding SS. The real question is whether his fielding negatively outweighs his offense at his position. Last season his bat still made up for his glove (though his fielding was somewhat better last year, his hitting worse). If his fielding declines and/or his hitting does not bounce back, then maybe he will have reached the tipping point. But if that’s the case, then 1B probably will not be the solution anyway.

Which is what I have argued all along.

You invoke Palin, which is sort of ironic, since your arguments seem to contain Palinesque exaggerations and black-and-white dichotomies.

“Basically every analysis I read last year had Jeter playing at or near average defense, a far improvement over his terrible 2007 season.”

Now, after showing, by significantly expanding your reading list, how far below average he actually is, and has been for a few years now and only getting worse, you’re saying:

“Wow, so you just proved…what I have basically said all along.”

Are you high or something? That’s a Palinesque level of ignoring reality and that by saying otherwise you can change that reality.

Wow, so you just proved…what I have basically said all along. What the Gospel according to James does not confirm, is your contention that Jeter is by far the worst defensive SS, so bad that he negates all offensive benefits that his bat brings.

“Giving him every possible break on the unknowns, [Jeter] is still going to emerge as a below average defensive shortstop. ”

Case closed.

Baseball Prospectus:
2007: -3 FRAA; 98 RATE
2008: -18 FRAA; 87 RATE
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/jeterde01.php

Fielding Bible:
2007: -34
2008: -12
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/2008-plus-minus-leaders.asp

Dave Pinto:
2007: 91.20 (second to last)
2008: 99.20 (only Pinto is showing an improvement)

Then, of course, there’s this damning piece which seals the deal:
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/jeter.asp

What have you been reading?

“Then there’s absolutely no reason to sign him with Manny on the market.”

Perhaps. But I also think that there is a decent chance that Teixera is still relatively productive in years 5-6, and I think that there is a very good chance that he outperforms Manny in years 3-4. It’s all about risks and rewards. I would overpay for Teixeira up to six years. I’m prepared for the worst (4 good and 2 not good) and hopeful for the best (6 very good).

@46

” Five years at $100 mill? I’d be a lot more interested. Eight years at $150? No thanks.”

So then we are bickering over details. You say five years is the limt, I say six. We both agree eight is out (see comments at #42).

@47

“It used to be that as players aged they moved to less demanding positions, with 1B at the last stop before retirement.”

Only if their bat carried the position. Otherwise they were out of the league. Players did not automatically shift positions.

@ 44

“Sorry, but you’re dead wrong on Jeter. The list from RLYWL had him as a plus on defense. There’s no way in hell that’s true. ”

Basically every analysis I read last year had Jeter playing at or near average defense, a far improvement over his terrible 2007 season. Maybe 2007 was caused by injury. Maybe 2008 was a fluke. I imagine it is a little of both. But I accept that the numbers showed that Jater was just not that bad on defense *last year*. If you refuse to accept that, so be it…we’ll agree to disagree.

Now, even if one accepts my position, we’ll see how he does this season and next. We’ll also see how he does with the stick. If his bat continues to decline, then there is no reason to move him to 1B regardless of his defense.

Probably too late for anyone to read, but I wonder if Jeter to 2B might be an option, depending on how Cano doe or does not work out.