Manny was average in LA. That tell me more than his unique stats playing the ugly wall in Boston.

We don’t know if Jorge would be below average at 1B. He started his career at 2B. He could just as easily be average there. And that’s only if he can’t be a C/DH. Cause, again, over the course of a six to eight year contract for Teixieira, at least Jeter and A-Rod will need time at 1B too.

To throw back at you: “And God knows what will happen to” Teixeira’s “fielding over the next” 6-8 “years”. Yeah, I’ll take a three year contract, with a better offensive player, than a 6-8 year contract with a 1B.

It’s not that I’m advocating re-signing Abreu. It’s just that the best possible free agent OF (Holliday) next year is not as likely to be better than Manny or Dunn. And yet he’ll require a longer contract than either of them. The Yanks should be looking at upgrading the OF this year, because next year the opportunity isn’t as good. If that means carrying Damon, Nady, Matsui, Manny, and Dunn, then so be it. Damon’s range is still good enough for CF. Put Dunn in LF or 1B if Swisher doesn’t recover. Manny goes into RF. Matsui is the DH. And Nady is a part-timer. Now that’s assuming everyone stays healthy or no one is traded. That’s a big assumption.

Then in 2010-2011, Dunn and Manny are at the corners. If Holliday can be had he takes over in RF. Gardner or Jackson in CF. That’s a pretty solid group for the OF and DH slots and only Holliday would be signed past 2012. As he ages, he shifts to LF. 1B remains free for Jorge and Jeter then A-Rod and Montero. That’s flexibility.

“Doesn’t speed and defense have any value to you?”

In it’s proper place. Speed and defense only goes so far. An aging, and powerless, Carl Crawford ain’t it.

“You want Dunn and Manny in the same OF?”

Sure, why not? They bring in more runs with their bats than they give up with their gloves. That’s much preferable to an OF of Crawford, Jackson, and Magglio as you were previously suggesting.

[39] There are a number of clutchy type stats and if you look at them all, some players seem more clutch then others. Whether this is just random coincidence or there is something to it, I can’t say.

That said, over his career, ARod’s ‘Clutch’ OPS is better then his OPS. But not last year. And there can be no doubt that ARod, and especially Giambi, failed in many, many RISP situations. When you consider how many games we scored under 4 runs, I’m afraid ARod and Jason have to take a lot of responsibility. And I say this as a fan of both players.

Actually, I think CC stays on the West Coast, and hopefully, we can bribe Tex to come to NY.

I’ve read time and again in regards to A-Rod (and others) that they had a good OPS when I watch nearly every game and know that he was not as effective as OPS-wielding defenders suggest. I just don’t think OPS is definitive as to a player’s value anyway, and that’s not even getting into extra-statistical “intangibles” (which are actually sometimes quite tangible).

Putting that aside for a moment, my experience with A-Rod last year for most of the year was that he cherry-picked an awful lot. Before the season was down the drain, I know for instance that he hit a hell of a lot of meaningless home runs. I mean, a home run is always nice, but it’s like the one he hit vs Cleveland in the 2007 ALDS game 4. It looks on paper like it might have been meaningful but anyone watching the game knows it wasn’t. Similarly, he had a lot of HRs in 08 when the Yanks were up or down by a lot.

This may be a slippery slope to bringing up that old chestnut “clutch”, but it is what it is.

Swisher + Nady are a most likely a downgrade offensively from Giambi 2008 + Abreu 2009; at best it’s break even.

Posada (IF he can catch) is a huge improvement over Molina, though he gives back some on defense. Cano 2009 MAY be an improvement on Cano 2008, but by how much? Frankly, I am skeptical about Cano’s improvement. He is going to be 26 next season, and his offensive performance has declined the last two years from his (so far) peak in 2006. Is he going to learn K-zone judgement at this point? Even Long claimed that he still needed to improve in this area, and that is not a skill that is usually picked up at this stage. He’ll be better this year–he can’t be much worse–but I wonder if he hasn’t already peaked.

And what about possible or even likely decline from Damon, Jeter, and Matsui?

I go back to my prediction at [8}: the offense is going to be trouble next year without the addition of at least one big bat.

According to Ken Rosenthal, free agent lefty Andy Pettitte spoke to Joe Torre multiple times about the possibility of signing with the Dodgers. Rosenthal notes that Pettitte has a history of leaving when he doesn’t feel wanted, and the Yankees are taking a laid-back approach toward him this winter. Still, the Yankees remain Pettitte’s first choice. Rosenthal does not see Pettitte returning to Houston.

“Randy Johnson: 2008 ERA+ 117. 2009 salary: $8M?
Andy Pettitte: 2008 ERA+ 98. 2009 salary: $13M?
Add into the fact that Johnson is chasing win #300, would definitely only require a 1 year deal”

“Unit in a heart beat. Pettitte has never been as good as his reputation and Johnson is a legitimate box office draw that will easily pay for himself, which is something The Parking Lot Attendant likes.”

Logical, but scary.
Will the Yankees let Andy walk AGAIN?

if the sign either Dunn or Tex, then the lineup would surely have enough “bop”?

oh, and they have to keep Matsui so I continue to get the Yankees on tv here 3 times a week..if they trade him to Baltimore or Pittsburgh..oh no!!!

“Holliday could be a downgrade from Abreu, until he proves otherwise outside of Coors.” —- Well, 1/2 his ABs are outside of Coors.
Furthermore, over the last 3 years, Abreu has an (adjusted) OPS+ of 120. Holliday of 140+. You consider this close? Now wanna compare defense?

Over the last 3 years, JD has had an OPS+ of 110, Crawford 106. Crawford is a better defender and a better base stealer. I would say their OVERALL value is close. However, if I thought JD would continue to give us 110 in the future, I’d be happy to re-sign him, but I don’t know if I would bet on it.

Chyll… do we lose draft picks THIS year signing CC? AJ? If we ‘only’ spent $33m/yr on Tex and Sheets, doesn’t that give us lots of cash for 2010. And after another year of seeing AJax, Brett, Melky, Cano and the kid pitchers, might we better be able to identify our most pressing needs? If we spend $65m/yr on FAs this year, who do we get for our OF in 2010, when our OF is EMPTY? Based on our farm system, what are our needs going forward? Pitching or offense/defense? Our pitching on the farm has potential, while I might expect Jeter and Posada to decline this and/or next year.

In 2010, we have ARod, Jeter, Posada, Cano and maybe Swisher. And Po might not be catching. It seems to me we will have a BUNCH of positions and offense to fill. And of the 5 names above, I would guess ARod will be the only one with an OPS over .800.

I might be dumb, but I see our issues this year and next as being position players/offense… not pitching. And as good as Manny and Dunn hit, I’m not crazy about spending money on DH types when Po may need to DH. You want Dunn and Manny in the same OF? Oy!

Worse comes to worst, they could be traded.

I don’t think they make up for Giambi and Abreu, I think they make up for Molina and … 2007 Cano. Which means other positions don’t have to pick up the slack for 2nd base and catcher. So any downgrade at first or RF would be mitigated by improvements at 2nd, catcher, and anywhere else the Yankees underperformed last year. If someone wants to posit they didn’t underperform, be my guest. Yes, some players will be worse than they were but I think we’re looking at a net gain.

Obviously there’s room for improvement, but it seems like I’m hearing a lot of glass half empty talk … the guys who did well last year are definitely going to fall off, yet the guys who had so-so years, you can’t assume they’re going to do better? That doesn’t track for me. I say yes, Damon likely won’t have a season as good as 2007, but neither will A-Rod have as mediocre a season as he had.

As for Giambi and Abreu, I’m fine with Swisher and Nady. If they get Texeira, all the better. Either way I’ll take my chances without the cherry picker and the cipher. Glad to see them both gone.

Crawford is a downgrade, offensively, from Damon. Holliday could be a downgrade from Abreu, until he proves otherwise outside of Coors. If Holliday proves himself, signing Dunn and Manny to short deals doesn’t preclude signing him as well. Indeed, both are better hitters than Holliday.The Sox will likely re-sign Bay as soon as this season, as he’s already proven himself. Magglio may not be much better than Nady going forward and the Tigers have two options on him for 2010 and 2011 for a reasonable 15 million going forward. His 2007 sticks out as a fluke but if he heads north of 120 OPS+ they’ll pick up the option. And Ankiel gets on-base 33% of the time. I’m not sure how that’s an improvement.

Line all those guys up, with Damon, Matsui, and Nady, and Dunn and Manny are both clear upgrades over what next year’s free agent market offers. It’s not just about this year. It’s about planning for the vacancies of next year – DH, LF and RF. Dunn can be had for three or four years at much less money than Giambi was making. And he can play the OF. Indeed, LF has been his dominant position. Giambi could barely play 1B. Big difference. You keep saying Manny can’t play defense. His stats in LA prove otherwise. I’ll take stats over ill-informed opinion any gameday. If Holliday is legit, sign him to play RF and slide Manny to DH for the last two years of his contract. That leaves a 2009 to 2010-2011 lineup of (assuming they can trade Matsui):

Damon to Jeter
Jeter to Holliday
Dunn to Dunn
A-Rod to A-Rod
Manny to Manny
Jorge to Jorge
Cano to Cano
Swisher to Swisher
Nady to AJax

Sabathia is better than all of the pitchers named, except maybe Webb. And Arizona has an $8.5 million option on Webb for 2010. Yeah, they’ll be picking that up if not signing him to an extension.