Yeah, a 110 ERA+ ain’t bad, except if it’s a proven injury risk and you have $16-$18m/yr tied into it. The Yankees have not produced many above average pitchers, but I wonder if the ‘smarts’ and effort behind our last 4 years of farm pitcher development is far and away better then in previous generations. It could be Wang, Joba and Phil alone are more then a decade’s worth of prior attempts.

Do you think we have any above average kids in the system?
If so, 1 question is: AJ > Kid + Dunn?
Even if the kid is not as good as AJ, what does that $16m/yr do for the team if we have an average kid in AJ’s place.

I mean, it’s NICE to have 3 or 4 aces on the staff, but is that the best formula? To me, with CC, Wang and Joba, we already have a top 3. Just how much above average do our #4 and #5 guys have to be? Wouldn’t those resourced be better allocated to the O and the D?

Is the AJ/Lowe/Sheets PHILOSOPHY that much different then the RJ/Pavano one?

I mean, if we can’t count on our farm to produce some better-than-average pitchers, we ae in deep shit.

Also, if Kennedy bombs, its easy enough to dump him. If AJ gets hurt, hes an 80 million dollar paper weight

Also, Teixeira is not on Mattingly’s level with the glove. In fact, according to UZR, before his excellent fielding season in 2008, he was below average from 2005-2007. I think Tex is a good defender, but definitely not elite like Mattingly was.

As for Giambi, don’t sell his Yankee career short. Four of his years boasted an OPS+ well above Tex’s career level of 134 and were on par with his best seasons. While a definite defensive liability, I don’t think the gap is as large as you seem to think.

Everyone keeps talking about all the arms the Yankees have in the minors, but over the past 50 years, how many starting pitchers with an ERA+ of 111 do you think they’ve developed? I’d have to guess that number is pretty small. People salivate over Josh Beckett, but his career ERA+ is only 116. The reason for that is Beckett has great stuff, which seems to come to the forefront in the post season. I think that’s part of the Burnett appeal.

I just don’t think this is a Burnett versus Tex debate, but a Holliday versus Tex debate, and I can see why Cashman would prefer to go after pitching now and out the bat off for one more season.

I don’t think Burnett will stay healthy enough to face Boston five times a year. He saw them once in 2007.

Basically, I’m not convinced that Ian Kennedy can’t do what AJ does but more often and for a lot less money and headaches.

I have Sidney Ponson nightmares.

I saw (on TV) MANY Mattingly games. He saved runs ALL the time with his defense. Turning seemingly impossible 3-6-3 DPs. Charging bunts. Throwing guys out at the plate. Robbing doubles down the line. Going in the hole. So, yeah, while a ‘Mattingly’ CFer or SS would be more valuable, a guy who excels at both O and D is very valuable, no matter where he plays.

And again, I’m comparing spending money on Andy/Tex as opposed to AJ/Lowe or Sheets. Which deal is the better money spent? Which deal makes our team better?

And while we keep saying 1B is easy to fill, who have we had since Donnie? Tex is much better then Tino, and overall, better then post 2001 Giambi. Frankly, when I look at our offensive lineup, I ask, how good are these guys as a whole at producing runs? When I like at our defensive lineup, I ask, how good are these guys as a whole at saving runs? When looking at the team as a whole, positions do not really come into it.

I ask this honestly….
We know a 3rd baseman saves LDs down the line. More then a 1Bman?
We know a 3rd baseman saves singles in the hole. More then a 1Bman?
We know a 3rd baseman (but not ARod) field popups. More then a 1Bman?
We know a 3rd baseman fields bunts. Ever see Mattingly charge a bunt and fire out a guy at 3rd base?
And taking throws from 3 other infields potentially saves or allows a lot of baserunners. Cutoff throws?
So why 1Bmen are low on the defensive spectrum, this is a relative comparison. A great fielding 1Bman might not be as valuable as a great fielding 3Bman or SS…. but he is STILL very valuable.

And lastly, how many quality arms, with MLB potential do we have on the farm?
How many .900 OPS guys with great gloves do we have on the farm?

Why are we commiting BIG bucks, when we already have 7 years of CC, to 5 year contracts for pitchers? In 2011, 2012, and 2013, are AJ/Lowe going to be that much better then one of our kids, that we would pay $16m more for them????????

I guess the best reason to think AJ likes the big stage are his #s against the Yankees and Boston, which are great. Afterall, if Burnett can pitch well against Boston 5 times, does that not enhance his value (kind of like RJ in 2005).

Finally, if the Yankees sign Pettitte and Burnett, that would make Hughes #6 and Aceves #7. In other words, there will be no Ponson in 2008, so perhaps that is being considered.

20 starts a year doesn’t impress me at all. That’s how we’ll wind up with Sidney Ponson over and over and over again, trying to fill the 10-15 starts that AJ loses.

As for the potential, I think at this point AJ is who he is. Strikeouts or not, I just don’t see him turning into a dominant pitcher in his mid 30s.

Is there any reason to think AJ will thrive on the big stage? it seems like everyone we get has that rep, regardless of whether or not they do.

The 16 mil per isn’t what annoys me as much as the idea that in five years, we could have shelled out 80 million dollars for less than 100 starts.

Its not just AJ. I don’t think pitchers that are ten percent above average are worth five years, frankly.

But more important than anything, I HATE the idea that this team is going to bet even one season on as completely unreliable as AJ Burnett. If we miss the playoffs in any of these years because we needed Sidney Ponson to pick up 13 starts, the contract is a bust.

Also, 1B shouldn’t be that hard to fill. Having Swisher man the position isn’t too bad if he reverts to 2006-7 form.

Would I like Tex? Yes. Would I hate it if he goes to Boston? Yes. Ultimately, however, I don’t think this is a Beltran moment.

I know Burnett’s injury track record is a concern, but he is not a Carl Pavano. He has made at least 20 starts since 2004, so it’s not like he goes into hibernation like the American Idle. I have to admit that I started the offseason wanting to stay far away from Burnett, but the idea keeps growing me on.