As for the dance vid, if I can’t dance you can have your revolution.

I love pitching, but you still got to put some runs on the board. Think of what Mark will hit batting in front of ARod.

People are very much reacting with their heart right now and overblowing the situation. Either looking to use this to validate their already standing belief that Cashman stinks/can’t judge pitching, or using their beef with Burnett to declare Armageddon.

When it comes down to it, you can hate the contract and think it is for too long, and you can think that the Yankees need more hitting than pitching, but it seems very strange to me to argue against Burnett as anything but a plus to this team.

Personally, I wonder why he chose NY over ATL. I think the money was close, but he actually WANTED to come to the big city. He seems to thrive in the spotlight, and that may work to his advantage. Barring injury (I know, I know), I wouldn’t be shocked if he outdoes Sabathia this year, just based on disposition and the road that led them to the Yanks. Sabathia is no shrinking violet but he does seem to have a foot out the frigging door already; Burnett’s apparent lack of intensity at times may be mitigated by the big stage.

One thing that is flat out wrong, however, is your contention that the Yankees are asking Burnett to become something he has never been. The Yankees are simply asking him to do what he has done over the last 4 years…if he can stay a little healthy, or refine his performance a little more, even better.

The rational for the price is plain and simple: market economics. The Braves were bidding with the Yankees, so the price went up. That’s the same reason why the landscape is littered with “over paid” pitchers. Is Burnett being paid too much? Perhaps, but when a pitcher with talent hits free agency, that is what happens.

The idea that the Yankees don’t need someone who had an ERA+ of 113 in 730 innings over the past 4 years is bewildering. That is exactly what they need!

Finally, if you can defend 3 or 4, then this isn’t the ludicrous deal that you and others are suggesting..at least not until 2013. I am actually shocked you made that admission because it belies my point…that the anti-Burnett cascade is more emotional than analytical.

Similarly, by looking at innings totals for his career, you are clouding the picture. You are treating his early years when he was breaking in as if they were full seasons. Burnett’s trajectory is very easy to read. He broke in slowly, had two full seasons, then TJ surgery in 2003 followed by a shortened recovery season in 2004. Over the last four years, in spite of some nagging injuries, he has still managed to log the 33 most innings over that span, and, more importantly, as Jaffe notes above, he was the 16th best pitcher among those with at least 700 innings during that time.

Your argument doesn’t really have any facts at all. He is not slightly above average (13% above average over the last 4 years is more than slightly above average); his K/BB rate is not sub par; and while he is prone to nagging injuries, his attrition rate is not abnormally high. All of your contentions are fostered by perception, but dispelled by facts.

As for Farnsworth, his scouting report would read: he throws a very hard, but straight fastball with a A+ slider that he can’t control. If you think that compares to a high-90s riser, low-90s sinker and A++ curve, I am sure there are many scouts who would disagree.

While it may sound like it boils down to “they’re all idiots.” But I truly, really think that the Yankee front office, and perhaps Brian Cashman in particular, are awful, awful evaluators of pitching talent.

They’re very easily swayed by whatever the conventional “wisdom” in baseball might be, regardless of how it jives with the facts. The conventional wisdom is that AJ Burnett is a topline starter who is now “over” his injury problems and and had a dominant season last year. None of these things are likely true, but the Yankees FO is so stupid, stubborn, gullible, desperate or some combination there of that they are willing to believe it.

This is also a front office that truly believes in HE FINALLY TURNED THE CORNER, no matter how many times they get burned by it. They’re so desperate to get in on the ‘ground floor’ of almost anything that they’re willing to believe that almost anyone’s career year is the beginning of a big turn around. That’s how we keep getting stuck with the Wrights and Pavanos and Womacks and Farnsworths and Ponsons out there. I have a feeling we’ll be saying the same about the likes of Xavier Nady if he’s hitting .268/.320/.474 next year.

I also do think there’s probably an element in the Yankee front office that knows this deal is likely a disaster, but fear for their jobs. AJ Burnett will likely be a bust. But IF he goes to the Braves team he’s not a bust, or even if the conventional wisdom is that he’s not, or if the Braves happen to win a World Championship while he’s on the team somewhere regardless of what he actually does, Hank Steinbrenner will probably go nuclear. So in their minds, from purely personal standpoints, without the best interest of the team at heart, the risk of 5 years/<100 starts from Burnett is less than Burnett going somewhere else and succeeding in some way or another.

That being said, they just placed a huge bet on AJ Burnett suddenly becoming something he’s never been, ten years into his career and at thirty two years of age. Bad, bad, bad move.

thanks. you’ve saved my saturday.

Likewise William, for all your arguments you still can’t come up with a rational for a 5Year contract at that price..you could defend 3 or 4, but 5 years is crazy..the Yankees did NOT need Burnett like they did CC..and yes, topping 200 IP only 3 times in 10 years is worthy of Pavano comparisons..check out some of the Blue Jay blogs for more on this guy..no one questions his stuff, it’s electric, but can he deliver regularly..for that money, you HAVE to be certain..

My comparison to Farnsworth was in response to the arguments about his “stuff”. There are a lot of pitchers out there with great raw “stuff” but many of them actually suck. In contrast, some pitchers with so so stuff seem to pitch pretty well (Maddux, Moose last year, Jamie Moyer, etc.). When handing out nearly a hundred million I prefer to have something more to go on than the fact that the guy throws hard.

As for the Pavano comparison, I make it based only on health, not on performance. I agree the comparison is not appropriate in terms of performance. I do believe it is very appropriate in terms of health, however.

As for Beckett’s Octobers, note that his two postseasons prior to this year happened to come following his two best regular seasons. He was pitching well because he was healthy (which he rarely is). This year he was back to his usual ex-Marlin self and had a poor postseason which likely cost the Sox the pennant. I don’t buy into the Beckett myth.

Tommy, the Farnsworth comp is a bullseye save for one thing: Kyle could stay healthy.

I guess I am just looking for someone who hates this deal to provide an objective argument that uses some scouting and stats-based arguments. Instead, the anti-Burnett sentiment seems to be a knee jerk reaction to the perception that Burnett is Carl Pavano, which persists inspite of the fact that nothing bears that out.

William, I can think of another guy with great stuff. He had a high 90s (touching 100) fastball and a nasty, nasty low 90s slider. When he was on, he was unhittable. If only someone could harness that stuff, or help him turn the corner. Ah, Kyle Farnsworth, how we miss you. I’m telling you, AJ Burnett is the starter version of Krazy Kyle. Just wait and watch. I hope to G-d I’m wrong and he leads this team to October, but I just don’t see it happening.

Furthermore, I just don’t get your argument about Sheets either. From 2005-2007 he was beset by injuries, and unlike Burnett only returned to pitch significantly down the stretch in one of them. In other words, Burnett recovered from both of his injuries in 2006 and 2007, while Sheets was basically shut down. Even last year, when Sheets reached 200 IP, he ended the season with an injury, the status about which we really don’t know.

Finally, Sheets has an ERA+ of 116 in the NL Central. Burnett has been better than that during his time in the AL East and almost as good over his career. I am not sure how one is really an ace, while the other is not. You seem to be painting his entire career with the brush of his pre-injury 2004 season.

If you honestly think that’s the Yankees logic, I guess I could see why you have been venting, but quite honestly, I don’t think that holds any water. AJ Burnett’s stuff is not just evident when he pitches against the Yankees…it is blindingly obvious to anyone who watches him pitch. Think about what you said…he has a high 90s four seamer, low-90s sinker and a nasty hook. That is a scouting report from someone’s fantasy. This is simply not a case of scouting by isolated performance.

Do you also believe the Yankees signed Pavano, Womack and Wight because of their performances against the Yankees in the playoffs? Do you have any evidence of that? I find that accusation to be pretty absurd.

As for Sheets, I was dead against going anywhere near him when the offseason began, but that’s because I thought he’d get Burnett-type offers. Instead he’s looking at two-year deals, and I’d rather take that risk than this one, particularly because Sheets, when healthy, has been the true ace Burnett hasn’t.

He has pitched almost as many inning as Beckett in that span.

Beckett is hardly the model of consistency either. As a rule, teams should avoid large commitments to members of the early ’00s Marlins (Burnett, Pavano, Clement, Beckett, Penny, Dempster).

As for the Hawk’s request, here’s what I think the Yankees are thinking:

“This guy has monster stuff and he killed us last year. We need pitching and with Burnett throwing high 90s four-seamers, low-90s sinkers, and nasty curveballs behind CC we can do to other teams what the Jays behind Halladay and Burnett did to us last year. Pay him whatever he wants.”

It’s this kind of logic that led to signing Pavano (“he was great against us in the ’03 World Series”), Womack (“he got that double off Mo in Game Seven of the ’01 Series”), Jaret Wright (“he beat us twice in the 1997 ALDS”), and many others. It’s scouting based on isolated performances rather than track record, and it’s the wrong way to run a team. Burnett was below league average against the rest of baseball last year, can’t stay healthy, will be 32 in January, 36 at the end of the deal, and has never pitched up to the level of his great stuff.

Also, you really think Beckett’s 116 ERA+ is that much better than Burnett’s 111 ERA+?

What’s more, you think Sheets would have been better risk? Even though he has missed time with an injury in each of the past 4 seasons (totaling only 602 innings)? Even though he ended last year with an injury, and reports have suggested the Yankees were concerned by his medical records?

I know it’s catchy to call him DL Burnett, but there are too many facts getting in the way of the portrayal that so many are trying to project.

Is AJ Burnett a marathon man? Absolutely not? His he a Carl Pavano-like malingerer? Nonsense!