Comments on: Penny For My Thoughts

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 21:41:55 +0000

[14] Fair enough…I guess my point was Penny’s All Star seasons were more the result of luck, so he doesn’t really have the “potential” you suggest. Sure, he could get lucky again, but then so could Aaron Small. It’s definitely a minor quibble, especially in the context of your further analysis.

By: Cliff Corcoran

Cliff Corcoran — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:19:57 +0000

William, I said, “Penny has the potential to tip that balance in Boston’s favor.” (emphasis added) I think that’s certainly true. He could rebound to his All-Star form, but I then spend the rest of the article explaining why I think he won’t.

As for Burnett, it’s old news that I have a lower opinion of him than many of you. As with Lester, I’m fine with that.

By: The Hawk

The Hawk — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 14:30:16 +0000

[10] HA! Yes – I’m saying you’re underrating Beckett – when you say he’s overrated*! This is fun. Another way you could say it is you are overrating his overrating and I am underrating your underrating of him. Or am I overrating it? All right!!!

*(esp) on a par with Burnett

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 13:25:33 +0000

[10] I mentioned Penny as a point of contention because you had mentioned he could make the difference between the two rotations. I don’t think he is good enough to do that.

I also don’t think you are overrating Beckett. In fact, I think you have him pegged perfectly. I just don’t think you are giving Burnett enough credit in the comparison.

By: Chyll Will

Chyll Will — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 07:47:08 +0000

[10] …if I do it right I might piss off all of them.

If you have any questions, I can be reached by email >;)

By: Cliff Corcoran

Cliff Corcoran — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:28:22 +0000

Just Fair, I don't think there's much risk of that, but never say never. William we agree on Penny. Not sure why you list that as a point of contention. And I'm not sure I give Beckett "such an edge" rather than just a regular old edge. That edge is based in large part on the fact that Beckett had a Cy Young-quality year in 2007, while Burnett has never been that good over a full season, the fact that Beckett is three years younger than Burnett, and the fact that Beckett is far stingier with his walks than A.J. I'm clearly higher on Lester than most of you, and I'm fine with that. I'm also entertained by the fact that the Hawk thinks I'm underrating Beckett and William thinks I'm overrating him. That could mean that my porridge is just right, or that I'm guaranteed to piss off a minimum of 50 percent of the people every time I make any sort of value judgment, and if I do it right I might piss off all of them.

By: Joseph

Joseph — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 04:12:21 +0000

I was actually rather pleased to hear of the Red Sox signing Penny, as I thought they might go after D. Lowe, Ben Sheets or perhaps try to talk Jake Peavy into coming to the A.L. East to strengthen their rotation. Boston’s 4-5-6 of Wakefield, Penny, and Bucholz doesn’t exactly strike fear in my heart, but of course, you never know.

By: Rich

Rich — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 04:03:45 +0000

I’m not ready to designate Lester as a perennial ace off of one season, and I still think that Hughes will have a better career going forward.

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:36:34 +0000

[4] Beckett’s two awesome post seasons can’t erase the fact that he has had one ace-like season over the past 5 years. I do, however, agree that Lester is far from an ace who is set in stone. If you look at his peripherals, Lester could be a candidate for regression. Ultimately, if Dice-K, can control his walks (which is far from a given, especially considering he got worse in 2008), he may wind up being Boston’s ace.

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:31:21 +0000

I disagree with the notion that the Yankees are chasing the Red Sox. The reality is the two teams are vying with each other on pretty much equal footing.

As for your rotation comparisons, I have some points of contention as well:

Why exactly do you give Beckett such an edge over Burnett? I posted a comparison during the AJ signing debate, but the two pitchers numbers over the past 5 years are pretty close to identical (both in terms of performance and durability).

I also think you understate the Yankees advantages with Sabathia and Joba versus Lester and Buchholz. Sabathia has developed a track record and has much better peripherals than Lester, while Joba has had much more major league success than Buchholz. Those two comparisons represent a significant advantage for the Yankees.

Finally, I don’t think Penny is a significant factor. There is still question about whether he will start the season healthy, not to mention recover from his injury. Also, if you look at his BABIP and peripherals in his very strong 2007 season, that performance stands out as an aberration. Penny is basically a league average pitcher when healthy, and that is highly in doubt. Unlike Burnett, who has maintained his stuff, Penny’s drop off has been significant. Any attempt to compare the two fails on that basis.

Conversely, I think the Red Sox probably have a slight advantage with Dice-K over Wang because the latter is also coming off of an injury, while the former misses more bats and gives up fewer hits. If Dice-K can control his walks, he could be an ace, which gives him more upside than Wang.

On the whole, if the Yankees sign Pettitte, or even if they go with Hughes, I think the addition of Sabathia and Burnett along with the return of Wang and the implementation of Joba in the rotation gives the Yankees the strongest rotation in the American League.