No matter what, we need an OFer for the future. AJax (IF…. If he is real) Swisher and Melky won’t cut it. We have a 3rd and 1st baseman for quite a while, and a C/DH for another 2 years, so a power bat for 2010/2011 will only come from a trade or FA OFer or DH.

With the poor economy and Holliday being a FA at the end of the year, I’m not sure if Beane can hold out for too much. For teams that won’t pay $15+ m, Holliday becomes a 3 month rental, so I’m not sure if a team will give up much, unless they feel 3 months of Holliday is the difference between the PS or not.

I would ask what other FA OFers look tasty for 2010? It’s a short list, and I think Crawford is the only alternative (I assume the Sox re-sign Bay and Vlad will start aging in dog years at anytime). We can wait until Holliday becomes a FA and simply be top bidder, but this assumes we won’t need another impact bat to assure us the PS this year.

One pitcher’s preseence (Wang) contributed to 30% of their losses, but Hughes’s stellar outing last night offers signs that they can easily compensate for that deficiency going forward, and despite A-Rod’s absence, they have been able to get off to a 10-10 start, even though they are overly dependent on him offensively.

[1] One of the Yankees’ biggest problem is that they don’t have sufficient depth in the mL system to overcome injuries and poor performances. Gutting it for a Holliday would make that problem much worse going forward. I seriously hope Cashman is too smart to do that.

Toronto is off to a hot start, but they have yet to play any AL East teams.
Of 20 games for the Yanks, only 6 have been at home.
Every team has injuries. If by the RCNB, a team’s injuries come early, but they are healthy later, vs the other way around, that has bearing on how valuable a hot/slow start is.

If we were 12-8 (.600) but still 3 games behind Boston, would we be better off? We are 2.5 ahead of TB, but they have played a tough schedule with only 7 Home games. I think realistically, it’s a complicated formula. Making the PS it not based on our record per se, but our record compared to other teams.

We have had a number of issues we didn’t expect. CC and Tex are 2 of our 3 biggest guns, and have underperformed (especially in light of our biggest gun being out of the lineup). But our 2 biggest questions, Po and Cano, seem to be looking good. Andy also seems to be in good shape.

To me, the only issue is that we have lost a few games that were in the bag. 95% of the time, Mo saves that game against Boston and a 6 rub lead with AJ pitching a shutout holds up. What hurts is not so much the 10-10 record, but that we should be 12-8, a game ahead of Boston and 5.5 ahead of TB.

But all in all I think we are OK. If we don’t continue to have injuries (beyond the norm) and what we’ve seen from Po and Cano hold up, I have to assume CC and Tex will heat up, and we will be fine. Certainly, Phil and Melancon and nice pluses.

And you know Cashman is going to get SOMEBODY mid season. I personally hope it’s Holliday.

It will certainly be a competative year, but I think we are right there. We have issues and weak spots, but on paper, we still have a very good team.