Comments on: Yankee Panky: Paralysis By Analysis? http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/ Development site for Bronx Banter Blog's upcoming look and feel Tue, 21 May 2013 15:01:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: Rich http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169010 Rich Wed, 13 May 2009 01:41:26 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169010 [103] I agree,and as I said, I was wrong for failing to do the proper research (it won't happen again!), but that doesn't change the fact that multiple well regarded organizations pursued him. [103] I agree,and as I said, I was wrong for failing to do the proper research (it won’t happen again!), but that doesn’t change the fact that multiple well regarded organizations pursued him.

]]> By: Bum Rush http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169009 Bum Rush Tue, 12 May 2009 22:46:22 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169009 And in Igawa's last three Japanese seasons he averaged 23 homeruns....in a AAA league. Yeah, great signing! And in Igawa’s last three Japanese seasons he averaged 23 homeruns….in a AAA league. Yeah, great signing!

]]> By: Bum Rush http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169008 Bum Rush Tue, 12 May 2009 22:40:33 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169008 Actually, don't answer that. Your "pressure" point shows I'm completely wasting my time. Yup, Igawa knows how to pitch under pressure. You're also leaving out the part when they demoted him to the minors in 2005 because he liked to fly RC helicopters more than pitch. The Japanese knew he sucked. And they gladly took the Yankee money. Actually, don’t answer that. Your “pressure” point shows I’m completely wasting my time. Yup, Igawa knows how to pitch under pressure. You’re also leaving out the part when they demoted him to the minors in 2005 because he liked to fly RC helicopters more than pitch.

The Japanese knew he sucked. And they gladly took the Yankee money.

]]> By: Bum Rush http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169007 Bum Rush Tue, 12 May 2009 22:37:10 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169007 Did Igawa play for their 2005 WBC team? He was never one of their best pitchers no matter how much you want to believe otherwise. The last two years he's shown exactly why. Unless you think his AAA proves he deserves another shot? Did Igawa play for their 2005 WBC team? He was never one of their best pitchers no matter how much you want to believe otherwise. The last two years he’s shown exactly why. Unless you think his AAA proves he deserves another shot?

]]> By: Raf http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169006 Raf Tue, 12 May 2009 22:29:55 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169006 <b>$49 million on a Japanese scrub not good enough to make their WBC team is not reasonable.</b> *sigh* What were Igawa's stats with the Hanshin Tigers? He was a consistent strikeout pitcher in Japan, showing an ability to miss bats. He has pitched in the playoffs there, which shows that he had the ability to pitch under "pressure." He won a Sawamura Award and an MVP in the Central League... It was a perfectly reasonable signing. $49 million on a Japanese scrub not good enough to make their WBC team is not reasonable.

*sigh*

What were Igawa’s stats with the Hanshin Tigers?

He was a consistent strikeout pitcher in Japan, showing an ability to miss bats. He has pitched in the playoffs there, which shows that he had the ability to pitch under “pressure.” He won a Sawamura Award and an MVP in the Central League…

It was a perfectly reasonable signing.

]]> By: Bum Rush http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169005 Bum Rush Tue, 12 May 2009 22:28:07 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169005 After Jeter, using my Carnac-inspired abilities I predict that Damon or Matsui will be next. All in all, we're now at three of the opening day nine to hit the DL and we aren't even two weeks into May. And Teixeira should have been disabled. Now Jeter. It's only a matter of time before Matsui's knees start acting up and Damon pulls a hamstring. At least that's something to look forward to: When 7 of the opening day 9 have been on the disabled list. But I suppose then it will still have been the manager's fault. Can't wait for the day that Ramiro Pena, Brett Gardner and Kevin Cash start the same game! Whoops that's tonight! And against Halladay! After Jeter, using my Carnac-inspired abilities I predict that Damon or Matsui will be next. All in all, we’re now at three of the opening day nine to hit the DL and we aren’t even two weeks into May. And Teixeira should have been disabled. Now Jeter. It’s only a matter of time before Matsui’s knees start acting up and Damon pulls a hamstring. At least that’s something to look forward to: When 7 of the opening day 9 have been on the disabled list. But I suppose then it will still have been the manager’s fault.

Can’t wait for the day that Ramiro Pena, Brett Gardner and Kevin Cash start the same game! Whoops that’s tonight! And against Halladay!

]]> By: Bum Rush http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169004 Bum Rush Tue, 12 May 2009 22:22:08 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169004 <i>perfectly reasonable gamble given the information</i> Please stop carrying the water. $49 million on a Japanese scrub not good enough to make their WBC team is not reasonable. And that money on the back of the rotation is really, truly overspending. <i>Igawa was signed to a 5/$20M contract.</i> That's not what was spent. What next, you're going to claim Pavano was a "reasonable" signing because the insurance picked up the cost? perfectly reasonable gamble given the information

Please stop carrying the water. $49 million on a Japanese scrub not good enough to make their WBC team is not reasonable. And that money on the back of the rotation is really, truly overspending.

Igawa was signed to a 5/$20M contract.

That’s not what was spent. What next, you’re going to claim Pavano was a “reasonable” signing because the insurance picked up the cost?

]]> By: Raf http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169003 Raf Tue, 12 May 2009 22:18:18 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169003 <b>Then they sure laid out some serious cash for a back of the rotation starter.</b> Igawa was signed to a 5/$20M contract. Reasonable, considering the market (Gil Meche signed for the same number of years for nearly 3 times as much. Then they sure laid out some serious cash for a back of the rotation starter.

Igawa was signed to a 5/$20M contract. Reasonable, considering the market (Gil Meche signed for the same number of years for nearly 3 times as much.

]]> By: Bum Rush http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169002 Bum Rush Tue, 12 May 2009 22:15:42 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169002 47. Bum Rush May 12th, 2009 at 11:22 am <i>Jeter, Posada, A-Rod</i> The three most important players on the club. Who were their backups again? And Jeter will be the next to miss significant time. 98. Rich May 12th, 2009 at 5:06 pm Per Ham: Jeter has an oblique pull. It doesn’t stop. ****** Yeah, this team sucks because of the manager. Old and rapidly declining. And they have been for at least five years. 47. Bum Rush
May 12th, 2009 at 11:22 am

Jeter, Posada, A-Rod

The three most important players on the club. Who were their backups again?

And Jeter will be the next to miss significant time.

98. Rich
May 12th, 2009 at 5:06 pm

Per Ham: Jeter has an oblique pull. It doesn’t stop.

******

Yeah, this team sucks because of the manager. Old and rapidly declining. And they have been for at least five years.

]]> By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169001 The Hawk Tue, 12 May 2009 22:11:26 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169001 [104] Then they sure laid out some serious cash for a back of the rotation starter. Some might say ... too much. [104] Then they sure laid out some serious cash for a back of the rotation starter. Some might say … too much.

]]> By: Raf http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-169000 Raf Tue, 12 May 2009 22:07:19 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-169000 [102] Igawa was planned to be a back of the rotation starter, and a perfectly reasonable gamble given the information. The Yanks weren't counting on him to be an ace. [102] Igawa was planned to be a back of the rotation starter, and a perfectly reasonable gamble given the information. The Yanks weren’t counting on him to be an ace.

]]> By: Raf http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168999 Raf Tue, 12 May 2009 22:06:13 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168999 [100], [101] Pavano's peripherals showed that 2004 was a fluke season. From THT <i>However, even assuming for a moment that he has gotten over the injury bug and will now be a healthy pitcher for the foreseeable future, what Pavano did in 2004 screams fluke. There is no denying that his 3.00 ERA this year was excellent, but when you look a little closer at some of his numbers you can see some problems. Take a look at Pavano's pitching with the Marlins in 2002/2003, compared to this year. <code>Year ERA SO% BB% HR% BIPH 2002-03 4.18 15.6 5.7 2.1 .303 2004 3.00 15.3 5.4 1.8 .282</code> As you can see, his strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed occurred at nearly identical rates in both time periods. From 2002-03, Pavano got a strikeout against 15.6% of the batters he faced and he struck out 15.3% last year. He allowed a walk 5.7% of the time in 2002/03 and 5.4% of the time this season. He gave up a homer 2.1% of the time in 2002/03 and 1.8% of the time last season (a difference of about 3-4 homers over the course of a season). The one major difference in his performance (aside from ERA) is the fact that 30.3% of the balls put in play against Pavano in 2002/03 went for hits, while that number dropped to 28.2% in 2004. That may not seem like a big deal, but it is. If Pavano had duplicated hit ball-in-play numbers from 2002/03 this season, he would have allowed 15 more hits than he did, which would have inflated his batting average against from .253 to .271. If you choose to believe that Pavano learned how to better prevent hits on balls in play in 2004, then he is likely to repeat that feat in future seasons, but I choose to believe he benefited from some good defense and a little luck (particularly considering the Marlins as a whole allowed 30.0% of balls in play to fall for hits and the entire NL was at 30.5%).</i> [100], [101] Pavano’s peripherals showed that 2004 was a fluke season.

From THT
However, even assuming for a moment that he has gotten over the injury bug and will now be a healthy pitcher for the foreseeable future, what Pavano did in 2004 screams fluke. There is no denying that his 3.00 ERA this year was excellent, but when you look a little closer at some of his numbers you can see some problems. Take a look at Pavano’s pitching with the Marlins in 2002/2003, compared to this year.

Year ERA SO% BB% HR% BIPH
2002-03 4.18 15.6 5.7 2.1 .303
2004 3.00 15.3 5.4 1.8 .282

As you can see, his strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed occurred at nearly identical rates in both time periods. From 2002-03, Pavano got a strikeout against 15.6% of the batters he faced and he struck out 15.3% last year. He allowed a walk 5.7% of the time in 2002/03 and 5.4% of the time this season. He gave up a homer 2.1% of the time in 2002/03 and 1.8% of the time last season (a difference of about 3-4 homers over the course of a season). The one major difference in his performance (aside from ERA) is the fact that 30.3% of the balls put in play against Pavano in 2002/03 went for hits, while that number dropped to 28.2% in 2004.

That may not seem like a big deal, but it is. If Pavano had duplicated hit ball-in-play numbers from 2002/03 this season, he would have allowed 15 more hits than he did, which would have inflated his batting average against from .253 to .271. If you choose to believe that Pavano learned how to better prevent hits on balls in play in 2004, then he is likely to repeat that feat in future seasons, but I choose to believe he benefited from some good defense and a little luck (particularly considering the Marlins as a whole allowed 30.0% of balls in play to fall for hits and the entire NL was at 30.5%).

]]> By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168998 The Hawk Tue, 12 May 2009 21:57:50 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168998 Oh and Igawa was a pathetic move, besides being bad. Playing catch up to the Red Sox, yuck. Oh and Igawa was a pathetic move, besides being bad. Playing catch up to the Red Sox, yuck.

]]> By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168997 The Hawk Tue, 12 May 2009 21:57:20 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168997 I clearly remember Pavano being sought after and conventional wisdom was he was someone you should go after. That doesn't mean <i>EVERYONE</i> thought so but a lot of people did. Weaver and Vasquez - those moves seemed to be in the right direction, they just imploded here. Of course they weren't sure things, but there was upside there. I don't think there's anything wrong with a little risk. In fact, it's necessary sometimes. Wright, Johnson, Brown ... All bad deals from the get-go. Okay now I'm talking about my opinion only but I didn't like the looks of any of those. I clearly remember Pavano being sought after and conventional wisdom was he was someone you should go after. That doesn’t mean EVERYONE thought so but a lot of people did.

Weaver and Vasquez – those moves seemed to be in the right direction, they just imploded here. Of course they weren’t sure things, but there was upside there. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a little risk. In fact, it’s necessary sometimes.

Wright, Johnson, Brown … All bad deals from the get-go. Okay now I’m talking about my opinion only but I didn’t like the looks of any of those.

]]> By: Rich http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168996 Rich Tue, 12 May 2009 21:18:44 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168996 [99] Yet five teams, including the Sox, offered him a similar contract. TBH, I supported the signing, but I had done insufficient research on his peripherals. [99] Yet five teams, including the Sox, offered him a similar contract.

TBH, I supported the signing, but I had done insufficient research on his peripherals.

]]> By: Raf http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168995 Raf Tue, 12 May 2009 21:08:52 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168995 <b>Similarly, many baseball people thought that the Weaver trade and the Pavano signing were sound moves.</b> The Weaver trade was sound, the Pavano signing wasn't. Similarly, many baseball people thought that the Weaver trade and the Pavano signing were sound moves.

The Weaver trade was sound, the Pavano signing wasn’t.

]]> By: Rich http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168994 Rich Tue, 12 May 2009 21:06:55 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168994 Per Ham: Jeter has an oblique pull. It doesn't stop. Per Ham: Jeter has an oblique pull. It doesn’t stop.

]]> By: Rich http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168993 Rich Tue, 12 May 2009 21:05:44 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168993 [89] <b>I don’t know why Brown is lumped in with the rest, believe it or not, he was a decent acquisition.</b> I actually think that trading for Vazquez made even more sense, with the only caveat being that he led the NL in abuse points in 2003. Similarly, many baseball people thought that the Weaver trade and the Pavano signing were sound moves. But like the Brown acquisition, they didn't work out. [89] I don’t know why Brown is lumped in with the rest, believe it or not, he was a decent acquisition.

I actually think that trading for Vazquez made even more sense, with the only caveat being that he led the NL in abuse points in 2003. Similarly, many baseball people thought that the Weaver trade and the Pavano signing were sound moves.

But like the Brown acquisition, they didn’t work out.

]]> By: Raf http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168992 Raf Tue, 12 May 2009 21:04:20 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168992 Gardner's leading off... :facepalm: Gardner’s leading off… :facepalm:

]]> By: Rich http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/05/12/yankee-panky-paralysis-by-analysis/#comment-168991 Rich Tue, 12 May 2009 21:00:35 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=18890#comment-168991 New lineup: Gardner CF Damon LF Teixeira 1B Rodriguez 3B Matsui DH Cano 2B Cabrera RF Cash C Pena S New lineup:

Gardner CF
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
Cabrera RF
Cash C
Pena S

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