Comments on: Livin’ on a Thin Line

By: BIGAL

BIGAL — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 00:35:42 +0000

The Yankees season is not over if they don’t win 2 out of 3 in LA, and Girardi’s job is not in danger because of that series either, that’s bull. The Yanks have 11 games left against the Red Sox, those are the telling series for a make or break season. Besides, if they only take 1 game in LA, that’s 5 out of 7 for the current road trip, who in the Yankees front office would not be happy with that.

By: OldYanksFan

OldYanksFan — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:08:42 +0000

[15] If you read all the comments (and I have one there), it’s pretty much covered. The (commenting) Yankee fans have assessed Gritner accurately. Bottom line: Average arm.

By: OldYanksFan

OldYanksFan — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:06:01 +0000

[11] “Re: Hughes, I think that Girardi is, as he was with A-Rod, faced with the choice between “what is in the team’s best long-term interests” and “how do I keep winning tons of games”. As should surprise no one, he’s leaning towards the winning now goal by keeping Hughes in this ridiculous short-reliever role.”

Shaun – I have to ask… Are these Girardi’s decisions or Cashman’s/the FO’s?
Girardi runs things on the field, but I would think ‘overall strategy’ comes from above. I can’t see Cashman letting Girardi handle Hughes (or any other important issues) in a way that is counter to the ‘overall plan’. Do we give Girardi too much ‘credit’ for these decisions?

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:05:22 +0000

[25] Regarding the lineup, at least Girardi is not subscribing to the obligatory day-game-after-night-game rule for starting the back-up catcher. The lineup is weaker today, but crippled.

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:00:19 +0000

[28] [34] Sadly, I hear he doesn’t like to bat so he’s not thrilled about going to the NL.

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:59:02 +0000

[28] The key for this effort would be to get Halladay himself to sign the petition, since he has a full no-trade clause!

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:57:14 +0000

[23] Small sample size is indeed something to be wary of esp. with defensive statistics. But stat geeks usually say that 1000 innings is enough, and Brett has 750 or so, which means the projection shouldn’t be wildly off.
In any case, pleading small sample size here kind of misses the point. If he had a great bunch of games throwing out runners, but it was a small sample, then we could wisely say that he couldn’t be expected to keep it up. But what’s happening is that the metric tells us that in that small sample he’s had an incredibly good arm, and anyone watching him would disagree. That cannot be explained by the size of the sample.

I like the suggestion that it has a lot to do with cutting off balls in the gap, thus depriving hitters of extra bases.

By: Shaun P.

Shaun P. — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:57:01 +0000

[29] [23] OK, I screwed up the html tags. I think its working now.

By: seamus

seamus — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:56:47 +0000

[25] probably want to limit a-rod on the turf. and sitting Damon doesn’t seem like a bad idea. Not sure what is up with him in left lately. But maybe playing in the dome is a bad idea for Damon right now. Vision problems?

By: The Hawk

The Hawk — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:56:34 +0000

If the Yanks don’t win two of three from the Angels, the season is effectively over. Fire Girardi.

…

I drank too much coffee.

By: Shaun P.

Shaun P. — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:55:38 +0000

[23] Don’t trust your eyes, ms october!

And if you don’t believe me, check this out.

I think the biggest problem defensive metrics are going to have in terms of gaining mainstream acceptance is that they will frequently tell us what we see (or think we see) is wrong – and that’s a very hard thing for people to accept.

[22] We can hope, and that’s about it. I’m with you all the way, monkeypants. Is it wrong of me to hope for a minor Pettitte injury that forces them to stretch Hughes out?

By: The Hawk

The Hawk — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:55:18 +0000

Does anyone want to help me start a Halladay-to-NL petition? I think we could really get a grassroots movement going here.

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:55:11 +0000

[20] The same thing happened with Pettitte. He picked off tons of runners early in his career, but that number has declined since then. His move isn’t any worse, but people has simply stopped taking as many big leads.

As I recall, this made its way into our discussions of Posada v. Molina last year. Molina’s fine CS rate still did not compensate for Po’s poor rate + much better bat, or so I argued at the time (and I stand by that). The problem is that we don’t know how much of deterrent Molina is–it is difficult to calculate “would of tried to steal” attempts.

Defense really is the last great frontier for baseball stats. I wonder if there will ever be truly trustworthy defensive stats for individual players, given that it is the one aspect of baseball most affected by team play (if that makes any sense).

By: The Hawk

The Hawk — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:54:14 +0000

I don’t support a trade for Halladay but if it were to happen I’d rather part with Chamberlain than Hughes at this point.

By: ms october

ms october — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:53:22 +0000

not exactly trotting out the a lineup for aceves. cody on that ground-up rubber turf might get interesting.

Jeter SS,
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Cabrera LF
Ransom 3B
Gardner CF

By: rbj

rbj — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:53:17 +0000

[10] Mo = class.

By: ms october

ms october — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:50:22 +0000

[15] well a few things – first of course sss; also, this data includes 2008, and i remeber the banter consensus was last year his arm was better than we all thought (i’ll try to find time to look up some other numbers to support if i have time later) – so much of this could be predicated on last year’s numbers; also, his speed in tracking balls down is surely helpful.

markakais on the list *seems* to make sense. it is somewhat useful for these defensive metrics to have some confirmation between what you think you are seeing and what the numbers are saying.

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:49:49 +0000

[11] I entirely agree regarding Hughes. I don’t really mind a manager playing for wins today–that’s his job. I do mind, however, that the organization does not *seem* to have a plan in place for him as they did with Joba. Plus, even if the goal is to win today and tomorrow be damned, I’m not convinced using the kid for 8 and 13 pitches at a time is the best way to achieve even the short-term goal.

Whatever. I ‘ll stop beating this dead horse soon enough. Resistance is futile.

By: The Hawk

The Hawk — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:49:48 +0000

Brett Gardner is not a very good outfielder. He’ll get better but that just shows you the folly of stat sticklin’.

By: Shaun P.

Shaun P. — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:49:16 +0000

[15] Don’t trust your memory?

The commenters’ theory makes sense to me. Remember how much weight reputation carries with defense. I’m pretty sure no one still runs on Ichiro! just because of that one play he made in early April 2001, throwing our old friend T-ball long out at 3B from deep RF in Oakland.