For all the games that the Yanks “could have” won vs the Angels, Sox, Tigers, and Phillies, think about all the games they “should have” lost versus other teams – the Luis Castillo games vs the Mets, as just one example.

Clay Davenport’s third order wins and losses at BP takes a team’s actual run differential, looks at what the run differential should be, based on the components of run scoring, and then adjusts that differential for strength of schedule and opponent’s hitting and pitching. In other words, its a filter on what a team has done, and says what a team should have done.

The Yanks are 51-37. By third order record, they “should be” 52-36.

Obviously, an out here, a runner driven in there, and not only is their actual record different, but their adjusted record is different, too. Still, I think the Yanks are right where they ought to be.

Note that the Red Sox’s 3rd order record is also 52-36. Its the Rays that could be trouble; they “should be” 56-33, not 48-41.

Cashman, on the other hand, came off as sneaky, conniving, arrogant and borderline incompetent.

[22] To clarify what I’m suggesting with my comment on the Yankees’ 5-15 record against first-place teams this year as “disappointing”: The Yankees are built to be the best team in baseball every year. They’re not going to sweep teams that are on par with them, but they should beat them at least 50 percent of the time. I’d say a .200 winning percentage against anyone is disappointing. Moreover, their run differential in those games is -35. They’re +75 against everyone else.

I know the record is skewed by the 0-8 mark against the Red Sox. I’d actually be satisfied if the Yankees were 8-7, 9-6, 10-5 against the Sox, Phillies, Tigers and Angels, the teams Pete Abe laid out. Consider how many leads they blew to those three teams. We’d be talking about a different state of affairs at this point if the starting pitching or bullpen did its job in a couple of situations, or if the offense was able to plate a few runs with RISP and less than 2 out.

I will say this, though, and this is a theme throughout the second half of the Verducci book: this 2009 edition, with the infusion of Sabathia, Burnett, Swisher (for all his foibles), and Teixeira, is more of a team than any of the groups that I covered. I think the only way for them to win is to take it one step further, because it still seems to me that in certain situations, individual pride takes over and it compromises them.

[21] I agree with you, Raf. It would be nice, though, to see them put together the same level of completeness in a game against the “big boys” as they do against the Twins.

Overall though, I do agree – the focus on the 0-8 vs Boston is all sorts of wrong. But it feeds into existing angst, and sells papers/gets ratings, so here we are . . .

I actually did not say that the traditional media makes up a storyline. Rather, I said that the traditional media picks up on a story and sells it (this to some degree of course perpetuates and promotes the story line).

I do find it interesting (as you point out in [19]) how “elite teams” gets defined and redefined. Why are we looking only at the Angels, Red Sox, and Phillies? What about Tampa Bay or Detroit or even Texas?

Even the comment at [8] is intriguing: “To be 5-15 against first-place teams is disappointing.” Yes, it is very disappointing, but it is a record that is rather skewed by an 0-8 mark against the Red Sox. Removed from the mark is a much less disappointing (but disappointing none-the-less) 5-7 mark.

I’ve posted here before that all of this seems to come down to the three series against the Red Sox. The failure so far to match up with the Sox is really driving most of the commentary about the Yankees failure to match up with the “big boys,” especially because their appalling record against the Boston lads can make several their composite record against numerous small subsets look worse.

I can, lest a manager gets fired, or a player gets traded/demoted/released after every cold streak. Granted, sometimes the situation calls for it, sometimes it doesn’t.

I enjoy watching the Yanks play, as well as some of the subplots involved. 2 games out at the ASB is not an insurmountable lead. If we’re Mets fans, I can understand the angst. If we’re Royals fans, I can understand the angst. But to be two out, wild card leaders, with a couple of trading deadlines looming on the horizon, I’m not going to be worried just yet. I would love it if the Yanks won every game for the rest of the season, but realistically, I know that isn’t going to happen.

OK monkeypants, come clean – you’re really Joe Sheehan, aren’t you? [18] reads like a classic Sheehan column on how the traditional sports media tends to make up the storyline, and then shoehorns the facts into it – and why that’s bs.

Just as an example, in 2005, on July 14th, the top 4 teams in the AL were:

Chicago
LA
Boston
Minnesota and Baltimore (tied)

Minnesota finished the year 7th in the AL, Baltimore 10th.

I agree, though, that as a fan, you can’t wait until the end of the season to size your team up. You have to do it daily. But to be objective about it, and to compare your team to other teams definitely, you have to wait until the end of the season. Until then, its all speculation and guesswork – which is fine, but don’t use that as the basis for saying your team is good or bad. Lots of games left to play.

In turn, if Will is accurate in saying that he is just reading the media landscape, I suspect that media-types will pick up on these complaints (maybe program directors listen to angry callers on sport radio) and spin stories about the Yankees lack of clutchitude against the big boys, or whatever.

That’s the beauty of this storyline. Once one accepts the initial premise–that the “big boys” comprises solely the Phillies, Angels and Red Sox–then the subsequent story of the Yankees failure against the big boys will never, indeed can never, die during the regular season. It’s built-in copy.

But it gets even better: the Yankees spotted the BSox eight games, so their combined record against the “big boys” will assuredly remain poor no matter what they do the rest of the season. The season series against Philly and the Angels is over, so their is no way they can ever “beat those teams” in the regular season. In fact, even if they swept the next ten games against Boston, their season record against this three-headed monster would still be three games under .500.

In other words, if Will is correct that “until the Yanks beat those teams…[they] will be under heavy scrutiny,” no matter what the Yankees do in the regular season they will remain under heavy scrutiny!

Since we don’t know whether they’ll make the playoffs or not, the measure of the team is taken against other elite teams.

I can’t get behind the idea that you don’t size up a team until the end result of the season is known. To me that defeats the purpose of following a team, of being a fan, really.

[8] All fair points, which I why I made clear I never get any exposure to the NYC-media malestrom, re: Joba or anything else. To me, though its a silly question, because its riddled with small sample size analysis.

Joba as a reliever, in the big leagues: 59 IP

Joba as a starter, in the big leagues: 154.3 IP

That’s not nearly enough data to prove he belongs in the bullpen, because starting pitchers with no MLB experience struggle, with very few exceptions, and guys who go from starting to relieving tend to pitch better in relief.

[12] When one grows up and goes to college in upstate NY, and then moves to Massachusetts, and avoids the tabloids and talk radio like the plague – one misses out on such things. =)

[2]“With all the problems this team has had, and given the division they play in – 4 of the 5 best teams in MLB are in the AL East – to be where they are is awesome.

I’ve immensely enjoyed watching this team play and I will continue to do so – even if they miss the playoffs again (oh well!).”

This mindset is exotic – even alien – to me.

You’re surprised by this? I remember the Torre gallows watch after the first week of the 1998 season.

all of the positives are being overshadowed by the Yanks dismal record against the big boys, specifically Red Sox, Angels, Phillies. Until the Yanks beat those teams, the makeup of this team will be scrutinized by media chatterboxes, and even rational fans.

That’s something I haven’t been able to figure out. Last year they did well against playoff teams (with the exception of the Angels), but were on the outside looking in @ the end of the season. I don’t think how they do against “the big boys” is particularly relevant.

Having said that, Steve Lombardi posted an interesting entry about this @ WasWatching

Then I look at the sentence you wrote–innocent in itself and (I accept) reflective of how you see it. You could have stopped at the “the makeup of this team is under heavy scrutiny.” Or, you could have toggled off several of the players who operate under the spotlight (honestly, I think no player, perhaps in all of MLB, is under heavier scrutiny than A-Rod). But rather, you chose to focus on exclusively on Chamberlain. Methinks that this reflects, on some level, your own opinion about his position on the roster.