I have reposted the story in the game thread, by the way.

[83] You are right that wins > runs. And probably that it’s easier to improve the management of outs than to improve the ability to get hits (because the concept of outs as an asset is relatively new to baseball while hitting is, at least conceptually, mature). The strategy of using outs as an asset is not necessarily the last “the optimal strategy.” A team merely not giving up outs to the best of its ability could still lose to a team with a conscious goal of a high out strategy like having a relatively low OBP but with high slugging, for example.
[93] [98] fantastic

For some reason this just occurred to me. Did anyone else smack your own forehead so hard it was painful when Jon Miller demonstrated that the basic rules of baseball are too complex for him? It was after the Swisher “appeal play” at second. They’d shown the replay and Joe Morgan was trying to save face (he had smugly announced that Swish left too early), and he was grasping at straws and said that the runner can leave as soon as the ball touches the fielder’s glove (as if this helped Joe’s case). And Miller agreed (this part is correct), and then claimed to have seen a game in which a runner scored from third on a foul pop that the fielder touched and then dropped. He said he saw this play.
My god.
I swear, Joe Morgan looked like a giant in the booth. He was Dustin Pedroia standing between two five year olds, towering over them like a giant. A huge, gritty, giant.

Personally, I’d send the runners in that situation. Damon k’s, he k’s.

A hitter will make an out more often than not, may as well take my chances with him swinging away

I would say most of the time it’s a given that the defense makes the play.

Having said that, there are some players you bunt with, there are many that you don’t. With the Yankees as constructed, there shouldn’t be anyone in the starting lineup that should bunt. Not surprising, given that the offense can explode for a bunch of runs at any given time.

http://xkcd.com/540/

(Even though I have one of those hats and chug sabermetric coolade like it was Miller Lite.)

I’m not so sure everyone around here agrees that there are times when the bunt is useful. IIRC, there are some who take the extreme view about never giving up outs…no matter what !!!11!!one one shift one…

It’s that “never-bunt” crowd that I wonder about. They seem to be drinking the Bill James/sabermetric Kool-aid from one of those fancy helmets with the cup holders and staws. Bunting is part of baseball and just because you bunt doesn’t always mean that you are automatically giving up an out (the defense still has to make the play…and if it is a pressure spot like the playoffs, it is certainly not always a given).

http://xkcd.com/386/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204022

Right, I’ve never thought much of the “taking the bat out of X’s hands” argument.

Obviously, everyone agrees that there are times when the bunt is useful (I just demonstrated that it is useful much of the time, with the win expectancy, right?). But if you don’t start with some basic trends, basic data, then you’ve got very little chance of figuring out what the best move is.

Oh, and in case this wasn’t clear: I’m really not concerned about Girardi calling for too many bunts. It won’t happen, and even if he does call for one when he shouldn’t, it’s probably only a tiny loss in win expectancy.