Comments on: Just Like Old Times http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/ Development site for Bronx Banter Blog's upcoming look and feel Wed, 22 May 2013 21:38:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236203 The Hawk Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:35:55 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236203 [74] LOL no-one's worried about killing anyone, it's a matter of performance. [74] LOL no-one’s worried about killing anyone, it’s a matter of performance.

]]> By: 51cq24 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236202 51cq24 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:47:43 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236202 pitching on 3 days' rest is not going to kill anyone or ruin anyone's career. the question is, who would you rather have, pettitte on 3 days' rest or gaudin on a billion? yes, those starts by andy were mostly years ago (his most recent was in 2006). but we're talking about one game. i think he can handle it. and if he can't, you still have gaudin backing him up. pitching on 3 days’ rest is not going to kill anyone or ruin anyone’s career. the question is, who would you rather have, pettitte on 3 days’ rest or gaudin on a billion? yes, those starts by andy were mostly years ago (his most recent was in 2006). but we’re talking about one game. i think he can handle it. and if he can’t, you still have gaudin backing him up.

]]> By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236201 The Hawk Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:05:57 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236201 [72] <i>The 3 day rest thing for Pettitte surely (surely!) has to note how old he was when he did those.</i> Yeah I would not push it with Andy in this regard for that reason - he's kind of old. [72] The 3 day rest thing for Pettitte surely (surely!) has to note how old he was when he did those.

Yeah I would not push it with Andy in this regard for that reason – he’s kind of old.

]]> By: Horace Clarke Era http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236200 Horace Clarke Era Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:53:26 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236200 I'm not even calling AJ's game a semi-stinker. I call it stanching the bleeding, going 5 shut out after a lousy start, giving the team a chance to win - which they could have done. For me, he's been fine. The 3 day rest thing for Pettitte surely (surely!) has to note how old he was when he did those. We've all been calling him a 90-100 pitch guy on four days rest. AJ is a different matter. Big guy, strong, still young(ish). He COULD go Monday in Philly in Game 5 on 3 days, but then Pettitte is set for Game 6 at home Wednesday on 3 as well. I don't like it, myself. I don't think we can dodge our 4th starter, unless it rains - which it might well do, and that would be (to my mind) an advantage for us. I’m not even calling AJ’s game a semi-stinker. I call it stanching the bleeding, going 5 shut out after a lousy start, giving the team a chance to win – which they could have done. For me, he’s been fine.

The 3 day rest thing for Pettitte surely (surely!) has to note how old he was when he did those. We’ve all been calling him a 90-100 pitch guy on four days rest. AJ is a different matter. Big guy, strong, still young(ish). He COULD go Monday in Philly in Game 5 on 3 days, but then Pettitte is set for Game 6 at home Wednesday on 3 as well. I don’t like it, myself. I don’t think we can dodge our 4th starter, unless it rains – which it might well do, and that would be (to my mind) an advantage for us.

]]> By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236199 The Hawk Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:13:41 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236199 [48] <i>after watching AJ’s last meltdown you’re still pointing to the larger sample size? </i> I don't see how you can not. I agree the post season is a different beast but after all, even during the post season, Burnett turned in two excellent performances alongside that meltdown (which to me wasn't much of a meltdown since the flow was stanched after the four run first inning, and the runs allowed after that were on Posada's watch and shouldn't have happened at all, but that's another story). In fact, if you think about it, even this post season, Burnett gave up 7 runs in 13 or so innings pitching to Molina and 2 in 2 innings pitching to Posada, and though I wouldn't extrapolate and make decisions based on that, you'd have to still give the advantage to Molina. (I'm not positive of the numbers but I think that's about right) But the point is, just because he throws a stinker or semi-stinker to Molina doesn't mean you throw out all the data you've complied before it. You're trying to maximize Burnett's performance, not ensure that he pitches a shut out every time. [48] after watching AJ’s last meltdown you’re still pointing to the larger sample size?

I don’t see how you can not. I agree the post season is a different beast but after all, even during the post season, Burnett turned in two excellent performances alongside that meltdown (which to me wasn’t much of a meltdown since the flow was stanched after the four run first inning, and the runs allowed after that were on Posada’s watch and shouldn’t have happened at all, but that’s another story).

In fact, if you think about it, even this post season, Burnett gave up 7 runs in 13 or so innings pitching to Molina and 2 in 2 innings pitching to Posada, and though I wouldn’t extrapolate and make decisions based on that, you’d have to still give the advantage to Molina. (I’m not positive of the numbers but I think that’s about right)

But the point is, just because he throws a stinker or semi-stinker to Molina doesn’t mean you throw out all the data you’ve complied before it. You’re trying to maximize Burnett’s performance, not ensure that he pitches a shut out every time.

]]> By: Shaun P. http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236198 Shaun P. Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:47:12 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236198 [69] And along those lines: 2009 Yanks EqA: .286 (led MLB) 2009 Phillies EqA: .272 That 14-point difference is rather large; greater, in fact, than the difference between Philly and SD (.260 EqA). Note that SD had an exactly league-average offense (IIRC, .260 EqA is league average). If we look at EqR: Yanks: 909.3 (led MLB) Phillies: 824.6 The 84.7 run difference is essentially the difference between Philly and the Mets (737 EqR). Unfortunately I can't find team RARP totals (RARP is essentially VORP, but unlike VORP - which I believe remains "broken" - RARP does not equate OBP with SLG) - but my guess is they'd also show a healthy gap between the Yanks and the Phillies. [69] And along those lines:

2009 Yanks EqA: .286 (led MLB)
2009 Phillies EqA: .272

That 14-point difference is rather large; greater, in fact, than the difference between Philly and SD (.260 EqA). Note that SD had an exactly league-average offense (IIRC, .260 EqA is league average).

If we look at EqR:

Yanks: 909.3 (led MLB)
Phillies: 824.6

The 84.7 run difference is essentially the difference between Philly and the Mets (737 EqR).

Unfortunately I can’t find team RARP totals (RARP is essentially VORP, but unlike VORP – which I believe remains “broken” – RARP does not equate OBP with SLG) – but my guess is they’d also show a healthy gap between the Yanks and the Phillies.

]]> By: Shaun P. http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236197 Shaun P. Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:36:57 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236197 [68] There are flaws, and then there are FLAWS. OPS and OPS+ are FLAWED - equating OBP with SLG is a huge, huge error. No one stat is perfect, but there are many, many stats that are far better at showing a team's actual offense than OPS+. And FWIW, as I show in [66], I too believe the Yanks have the better team - the far better team, in fact. [68] There are flaws, and then there are FLAWS. OPS and OPS+ are FLAWED – equating OBP with SLG is a huge, huge error.

No one stat is perfect, but there are many, many stats that are far better at showing a team’s actual offense than OPS+.

And FWIW, as I show in [66], I too believe the Yanks have the better team – the far better team, in fact.

]]> By: williamnyy23 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236196 williamnyy23 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:25:45 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236196 [58] I am not suggesting that the Phillies wont be competitive...just that the Yankees have the better team. While that doesn't mitigate the dangers of the small sample, it is still better to have that as an advantage (because ultimately have better players, and more of them, should increase your chances of things breaking your way). [66] It is flawed in that respect, but what stat isn't? Besides, the Phillies OPS+ is inflated by their SLG%*, so if you adjusted OPS to boost OBP, the Yankees would look even better. *The Phillies OBP was below the Mets and Nats. [58] I am not suggesting that the Phillies wont be competitive…just that the Yankees have the better team. While that doesn’t mitigate the dangers of the small sample, it is still better to have that as an advantage (because ultimately have better players, and more of them, should increase your chances of things breaking your way).

[66] It is flawed in that respect, but what stat isn’t? Besides, the Phillies OPS+ is inflated by their SLG%*, so if you adjusted OPS to boost OBP, the Yankees would look even better.

*The Phillies OBP was below the Mets and Nats.

]]> By: williamnyy23 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236195 williamnyy23 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:20:58 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236195 [55] OPS+ isn't really relative to one league or the other, but what other batters have done in comparable conditions. In other words, the league average OBP and SLG used as a baseline will be different for players on different teams (because park factors are taken into account). So, a team in the AL is being compared to a more difficult environment. The reason the gulf is wider is because the Yankees are 19% better than what the average team would have performed under the same conditions (i.e., number of games in the same ballparks). If you accept that the American League has better competition, than an OPS+ derived playing mostly AL teams will be stronger. Or, think of it this way...if a little league team was 100% better than its competition, you wouldn't also think it was better than a professional team that is only 1% better than its competition. [55] OPS+ isn’t really relative to one league or the other, but what other batters have done in comparable conditions. In other words, the league average OBP and SLG used as a baseline will be different for players on different teams (because park factors are taken into account). So, a team in the AL is being compared to a more difficult environment.

The reason the gulf is wider is because the Yankees are 19% better than what the average team would have performed under the same conditions (i.e., number of games in the same ballparks). If you accept that the American League has better competition, than an OPS+ derived playing mostly AL teams will be stronger.

Or, think of it this way…if a little league team was 100% better than its competition, you wouldn’t also think it was better than a professional team that is only 1% better than its competition.

]]> By: Shaun P. http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236194 Shaun P. Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:07:27 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236194 [53] And OPS+ is still a flawed statistic because it still values OBP and SLG equally. In any case, there's a huge golf between the Yanks and the Phillies, just like there was between the Yanks and Angels - Yanks' 3rd order W-L was 101-61, Philly's was but 86-76. That 15-game difference looms as large as the 14 game difference with LAA (87-75) and the 18 game difference with the Twins (83-79). So I'll say Yanks in 5, but if it goes 6 games and they get to clinch at home, I won't mind too much. ;) [53] And OPS+ is still a flawed statistic because it still values OBP and SLG equally.

In any case, there’s a huge golf between the Yanks and the Phillies, just like there was between the Yanks and Angels – Yanks’ 3rd order W-L was 101-61, Philly’s was but 86-76. That 15-game difference looms as large as the 14 game difference with LAA (87-75) and the 18 game difference with the Twins (83-79).

So I’ll say Yanks in 5, but if it goes 6 games and they get to clinch at home, I won’t mind too much. ;)

]]> By: 51cq24 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236193 51cq24 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:57:04 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236193 burnett's: http://tiny.cc/BScjI burnett’s: http://tiny.cc/BScjI

]]> By: 51cq24 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236192 51cq24 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:56:43 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236192 [63?] ah, that would be the problem then. andy's splits: http://tiny.cc/ftAcI [63?] ah, that would be the problem then.
andy’s splits: http://tiny.cc/ftAcI

]]> By: monkeypants http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236191 monkeypants Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:55:05 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236191 [62] How many links did you try to post? I have found that wordpress lets you include one link. More than one kicks your post into moderationland. [62] How many links did you try to post? I have found that wordpress lets you include one link. More than one kicks your post into moderationland.

]]> By: 51cq24 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236190 51cq24 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:51:31 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236190 WHAT THE FUCK??? i've tried 4 times now to post links to aj's and andy's splits on 3 days' rest. for whatever reason, wordpress does not want me to do it, no matter what form i post it in. basically, aj only has 4 starts but has been great (4-0, 2.33 era, 1.07 whip, 2.4 k/bb); andy has 14 starts and has been average but better than gaudin (4-6, 4.15 era, 1.43 whip, 1.82 k/bb). but andy's numbers don't include the postseason ones i posted. WHAT THE FUCK??? i’ve tried 4 times now to post links to aj’s and andy’s splits on 3 days’ rest. for whatever reason, wordpress does not want me to do it, no matter what form i post it in. basically, aj only has 4 starts but has been great (4-0, 2.33 era, 1.07 whip, 2.4 k/bb); andy has 14 starts and has been average but better than gaudin (4-6, 4.15 era, 1.43 whip, 1.82 k/bb). but andy’s numbers don’t include the postseason ones i posted.

]]> By: rufuswashere http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236189 rufuswashere Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:50:48 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236189 [57] My bad! Sorry, getting old (as my kids keep reminding me). Ok, from 1995, how about the Mattingly or Leyritz home runs in game 2 ALDS? [57] My bad! Sorry, getting old (as my kids keep reminding me).

Ok, from 1995, how about the Mattingly or Leyritz home runs in game 2 ALDS?

]]> By: Start Spreading the News http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236188 Start Spreading the News Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:44:45 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236188 Plus AL pitchers seem to love pitching in the NL these days. Just ask Smoltz and Penny. So our pitchers who have had to face offenses like the Angels, Red Sox and Tampa should not find the Phillies intimidating. Plus AL pitchers seem to love pitching in the NL these days. Just ask Smoltz and Penny. So our pitchers who have had to face offenses like the Angels, Red Sox and Tampa should not find the Phillies intimidating.

]]> By: monkeypants http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236187 monkeypants Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:44:17 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236187 [56] Nope...mine don't even appear. I submitted the first one, and it disappeared. I tried to resubmit and was told that I had sent a duplicate comment. I changed the second one slightly, submitted, and it disappeared. When I posted at [52] on mine ([53] on yours since you are awaiting moderation), it showed up fine, as did my comment at [55]. Weird. [56] Nope…mine don’t even appear. I submitted the first one, and it disappeared. I tried to resubmit and was told that I had sent a duplicate comment. I changed the second one slightly, submitted, and it disappeared.

When I posted at [52] on mine ([53] on yours since you are awaiting moderation), it showed up fine, as did my comment at [55].

Weird.

]]> By: Horace Clarke Era http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236186 Horace Clarke Era Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:43:02 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236186 [50] William, your last comment underscores why large trend discussions are somewhat beside the point. I agree: short series is too random (why I hatehate 5 game series, always have). We go deeper than Philly into the batting order with good hitters, but the top 5/6 for them are really good. Weird things happen at the bottom of batting orders, and we all know it (a defensively oriented catcher for Anaheim? Five doubles? Doyle/Dent? Are there people here who REMEMBER Brian Doyle?) Basically Philadelphia has the horses on the mound and at the plate to be very very strong. So do we. I am very happy we won the All-Star game, by the way. Kazmir was the winning pitcher, wasn't he? I want Burnett to have every tool/asset he can get in Game 2, first WS. I lean Molina. Not that Girardi's called to ask. [50] William, your last comment underscores why large trend discussions are somewhat beside the point. I agree: short series is too random (why I hatehate 5 game series, always have). We go deeper than Philly into the batting order with good hitters, but the top 5/6 for them are really good. Weird things happen at the bottom of batting orders, and we all know it (a defensively oriented catcher for Anaheim? Five doubles? Doyle/Dent? Are there people here who REMEMBER Brian Doyle?)

Basically Philadelphia has the horses on the mound and at the plate to be very very strong. So do we. I am very happy we won the All-Star game, by the way. Kazmir was the winning pitcher, wasn’t he? I want Burnett to have every tool/asset he can get in Game 2, first WS. I lean Molina. Not that Girardi’s called to ask.

]]> By: 51cq24 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236185 51cq24 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:41:59 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236185 [54] boggs' walk was in atlanta [54] boggs’ walk was in atlanta

]]> By: 51cq24 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2009/10/26/just-like-old-times/#comment-236184 51cq24 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:41:03 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=25475#comment-236184 [53] did it tell you that your comment is awaiting moderation? that's what mine says in 47. does anyone else see 47? are my numbers all screwed up now? [53] did it tell you that your comment is awaiting moderation? that’s what mine says in 47. does anyone else see 47? are my numbers all screwed up now?

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