Daily Archives: November 2, 2009

If the first two games of this World Series could have gone either way, the pitching matchups in Games Three and Four clearly favored the Yankees and, though they came close, it was the Phillies’ inability to break serve that has them one win away from failing in their bid to repeat as world champions.

Tonight’s pitching matchup calls for a Phillies victory that would send the Series back up the Turnpike with the Yankees leading 3-2. The Phillies haven’t lost a game started by Cliff Lee this postseason as Lee has been flat-out dominant. In four starts, he has tossed two complete games and twice struck out ten men without walking a batter, and doing both of those things in Game One of this World Series against the Yankees. In his four starts combined, Lee has walked just three, given up no home runs, and allowed just two earned runs, giving him a 0.54 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 10.0 K/BB. Opponents are hitting just .171/.192/.214 against Lee this postseason. His worst start saw him give up three runs, two of them unearned in 7 1/3 innings against the Rockies in Game Four of the NLDS. However good you think Cliff Lee has been, he’s been better.

That’s why the Phillies’ decision not to try to get three starts out of Lee drastically reduced their chances of repeating. Sure, Lee had never pitched on three-days’ rest before, but that doesn’t mean he can’t or that he wouldn’t succeed if he tried. One could argue that the Phils were better off getting two guaranteed wins from a fully-rested Lee than risking the second win by trying to milk a third out of him, but that only works if a) the Phillies can somehow win two other games (with a maximum of three games left in the series they’ve still won only Lee’s one start) and b) if they win tonight.

As I said, tonight’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Phillies, but that doesn’t mean A.J. Burnett is chopped liver. Despite all of my complaints about his contract and his inconsistency (both of which remain problematic, the contract especially), Burnett has answered the bell every time the Yankees have rung it. He took his turn every five days during the regular season, surpassing 30 starts for just the third time in his career, and, save for a bad first inning in Game Five against the Angels and his usual assortment of walks, hit batters, and wild pitches (resulting in 18 free bases in 25 1/3 innings), has been nails in the postseason. Burnett’s Game Two start against the Phillies would have bested Lee’s Game Four outing against the Rockies, so there’s more than momentum to cling to for those hoping the Yankees will wrap things up tonight.

The old baseball saying is that momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, but sometimes in postseason series a heartbreaking loss that puts a team one game away from elimination really does carry over to the next game. Think of the Giants in the 2002 Series or the Cubs in the 2003 NLCS (both walking-dead Game Sevens by Dusty Baker managed teams), the Cardinals in the 1985 World Series after Don Denkinger’s call opened the door to their collapse in Game Six, or the Angels in the 1986 ALCS after Dave Henderson’s Game Six home run ripped the pennant out of their hands. The Red Sox got a lead in Game Seven of the 1986 World Series, but I doubt even they believed they’d hold it after their crushing loss in Game Six.

The Phillies weren’t on the verge of the championship last night, they weren’t even really on the verge of tying up the series (they never had a lead in the game), but Pedro Feliz’s game-tying home run and Brad Lidge’s return to perfection in the first two rounds of the postseason made them believe they had the game in hand with the score tied 4-4 and two outs in the top of the ninth. The crowd even thought they had the final out in that inning when Johnny Damon foul tipped a would-be strike three from Lidge early in his game-changing at-bat. The sequence of events that followed (Damon’s single and steal of second and third on a single pitch against the shift, Alex Rodriguez’s ringing go-ahead double, and Jorge Posada’s two-RBI single, which gave Mariano Rivera some unneeded breathing room) was legitimately heartbreaking for a Phillies team that was flush with excitement after tying up the game in the previous half inning. They’d be right to wonder if they couldn’t complete that comeback what hope have they of coming back in the Series.

At the risk of rousing the ghosts of 2004, I’d say none. The only question is whether or not this series goes back to the Bronx, like the ALCS did, or Burnett and company get it done tonight despite the presence of Lee.

Major League Baseball has yet to approve the Yankees’ request to replace the injured Melky Cabrera, who tore his hamstring running to first last night, but Brett Gardner would be in center field either way and is tonight. With Jose Molina catching Burnett yet again, that gives the Yankees a bottom five of Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, and Burnett. That against Cliff Lee. Molina hits lefties better than righties (.259/.306/.384 career) and Gardner is at least Melky’s equal (beyond the gains in speed and defense, he posted a .272 EqA this year to Melky’s .267). Still looking at that lineup, one suspects we’ll get a sixth game out of this Series after all.

Alex Rodriguez and the Yanks are shooting for one…more…win.

Do it.

If the Yankees hold on to win the Serious, Johnny Damon’s at bat and stolen bases in the ninth inning of Game Four will be a major reason why. Duh, I know. But still, it’s hard not to linger on Damon for a moment this afternoon as we gear up for Game Five.

Whew.

After a tense, up-and-down (and-up-and-down-and-up) game, with some smart batting and quick thinking from Johnny Damon, and yet another monster (centaur-ish, even?) Alex Rodriguez hit, the Yankees beat the Phillies 7-4 and took a 3-1 lead in the Series. Now they’ve got three more chances to get that 11th postseason win… but for the sake of older Yankees fans and those with hypertension or weak hearts, let’s hope this thing doesn’t go to Game 7.

For one thing, while CC Sabathia came through and pitched a solid game tonight, he wasn’t quite the dominant force he was against the Angels; he’s now thrown 266 innings this year, so it would hardly be shocking if he was getting a little worn out. The Yankees staked him to a 2-run lead right away, on Jeter’s single, Damon’s double, Teixeira’s RBI groundout, A-Rod’s third HBP of the last two games, and Posada’s sac fly; for a little while, it looked like Blanton might implode. But either he got it together or the Yankees let him off the hook, depending on your point of view, and in the bottom of the first Sabathia gave back a run on two doubles – the second hit by Sabathia’s current arch-nemesis Chase Utley (who now, with that hair, looks like the sidekick to the snobby frat-guy villain of a Revenge of the Nerds sequel).

Both pitchers clamped down after that, until the bottom of the fourth, when Ryan Howard – you remember Ryan Howard – singled and scored on Pedro Feliz’s hit to left, tying the game. It didn’t last long: the Yankees rallied right back in the top of the fifth, with Jeter and Damon coming through again, knocking in Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera respectively, and making it 4-2 Yankees.

Since it was That Kind of Game, that score didn’t last, either. In the seventh Utley destroyed yet another Sabathia slider,  pulling the Phillies to within a run, and ending Sabathia’s night at a workmanlike 6.2 innings with three earned runs, six strikeouts and three walks. The Phillies went on to tie it up the eighth, when Pedro Feliz of all people rudely interrupted an otherwise-excellent Joba Chamberlain inning with a big blast to left: 4-4.

Charlie Manuel brought in Brad Lidge for the ninth, and the Philly closer made pretty quick work of Hideki Matsui and Derek Jeter. I admit that at this point, I was trying and failing to imagine the Yankees surviving an inning of Phil Coke. Johnny Damon’s two-out at-bat, though, turned everything around, not just for Lidge but very possible for the Phillies. It took nine tense pitches, as Damon fouled off several sliders and fastball after fastball, looking for something he could hit – and when he finally got it, he dumped it into left field.

With Mark Teixeira up, Damon immediately took off for second base, slid in with a little room to spare… then popped up, paused for just a fraction of a second, and took off for third. “I was like, ‘Where is he going?!'” said Jorge Posada after the game, and that makes two of us. Joba Chamberlain said he had “a mini heart attack” watching the play, while Brett Gardner’s initial reaction was “Uh oh.” I think most Yankee fans could probably relate to one if not all of those responses, but in fact, Damon simply realized that because on the shift on Teixeira, no one was covering third base – no one was even close to covering third base – and that given where Pedro Feliz had caught the ball, he wasn’t in any position to outrun Damon. Hence, two stolen bases on a single pitch.

Teixeira was hit by a pitch – I’m sure it wasn’t intentional, but still, Phillies pitchers: if you can’t pitch inside without hitting people, maybe don’t throw inside so much – and that brought up Alex Rodriguez. Of course. Lidge seemed rattled by then, and his second pitch to Rodriguez was a fat fastball that was promptly redirected towards the left field wall. The Yankees went up 5-4, and then up 7-4 on Jorge Posada’s two-run single. That was all they’d get, but not once in Mariano Rivera’s postseason career has three runs not been enough, and tonight was no exception.

(Incidentally, I love how Yankee fans have embraced the whole centaur thing. Personally, I think it’s hilarious if true – and it’s almost too weird to be invented – but anyway, Rodriguez has hit so well for most of this postseason, it would take a pretty serious felony for anyone to be bothered at this point).

Needless to say, the Series ain’t over til it’s over, as someone who’d know once put it, and you don’t have to try too hard to imagine ways in which the momentum could shift – Cliff Lee tomorrow, just for instance. But the Yankees are awfully close now… so stock up on the self-medication of your choice and get ready for another wild night.