No, the Sox would rather have a team filled with upside/value guys (like Smoltz, Penny, and yes Hermida) than overpay for anyone, even if that guy is arguably worth it. And for all the kvetching over the “failed” Smoltz and Penny signings, they still won 95 games!

Thus, if I had to bet, the Sox aren’t really interested in Holliday, mostly because he’s a Boras client and they know he’ll come with a premium attached.

And speaking of toeing the line on value and not overpaying, I’ve heard some rumblings in Boston that folks are worried about the Sox letting Beckett go (he’s a free agent after 2010) because they aren’t going to offer him a contract longer than 3 years, or they won’t pay him what he could get on the market, or both. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to Beckett elsewhere in 2011.

2008 and 2009 OPS+:
Melky: 68 and 99
Jeter: 102 and 132
Cano: 86 and 129
Swisher: 92 and 129
Posada: 103 and 133
Damon: 118 and 126 (but we have to replace him for 2010)

Does it really matter what ARod and Tex do if the SIX guys/slots above play like 2008? If they play like 2009, we can Win without an impact LFer. If they play like 2008, every with Holliday in LF, we don’t beat Boston. And if 2010 is halfway between 2008 and 2009, how we replace LF and DH could be the differnce in maiking the Dividion/PS.

Frankly, with our money, I say: “WHY GAMBLE”?
Salary wise, we can trade JD and Nady for Holliday. I know if may be 6 years (but maybe Cashman can swing 5), but I still think it’s a winning move.

Dump Molina, save $2m, and give Brains a shot. What can we lose? Maybe Brains will surprise us and post better numbers then Molina. Not that unlikely. And he sure will be better on the bases.

Hinske made $1.5m last year. Crazy NOT to bring him back for that. JHJr made $2m last year. He’s better then Pena, but we could save $2m and go with Pena without that much loss.

I’d say there is a reasonable shot that Matsui will do a 1 year contract to stay with the Yanks. If not, Thome is 95% of Matsui, and may even be as good or better because of YS.

JD is ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY NOT signing for one year. At 2, maybe… depending on other offers. As much as he loves being a Yankee, the guy wants to pile up numbers. He is eyeballing 3,000 hits. He is concerned with his legacy. If the Yanks really want one year of JD, they will have to overpay by $6m, and get him via Arb.

I say: Same team as last year except Holliday instead of JD, and Thome IF necessary.

Outside of AJax (who really should replace MelkyGardner), we have no OFers on the farm in the next 3 years. I would front load Holliday’s contract a tad (20, 19, 18, 18, 17 and 16) which at least makes a trade possible (if need be) after 4 years. The guy is 30. JD is 36. There is no reason we should not get 4 or 5 fine years from Holliday.

P.S. Theo does NOT really want Bay, hence the rather MickeyMouse offer of 4/$60. Holliday is Boston’s #1 target. Theo does NOT like Bay’s defense, especialy compared to Holliday’s. Tex made us better and hurt the Sox. Holliday will do the same thing.

[57] I never expect the Yanks to go cheap. But with these prospects it would be a nice surprise.

I’d be great to get Dunn via trade, because he’d be the best DH, but I don’t see it happening this offseason.

I’m also pretty sure that they have no problem exposing Corona (again) and Nunez in the Rule 5 draft. Russo they will keep, and it’ll be easy to have a spot for him by letting Molina walk or dropping Guzman or Towers or Mitre. And with both Pena and Russo, they really don’t need Corona or Nunez.

[51] I love Montero too, but the kid has hit poorly since coming back from his injury. I think the worst thing the Yanks could do is to rush him to the bigs now. The extra development time will help him – I think he needs it – and there’s no place for him to play everyday. If they brought him up now, they’d be wasting his major league service time with him sitting on the bench and not developing!

I also think Jackson should start the year in AAA, though I do recall arguing that with Melky playing LF full-time and Jackson/Gardner in CF, the Yanks just might save enough runs on defense to survive the hit on offense.

I’ll actually be surprised if they don’t sign all of Pettitte, Damon, and Matsui. It’s the easiest path and probably the smartest given the market and the long-term flexibility it enables.

Either that or they make a deal. Chad At LoHud spoke to Cashman about the multiple middle infielders that are Rule 5 eligible (Russo, Corona, Nunez) and Cashman referenced the Swisher deal. Adam Dunn is the first name that comes to mind here.

Ahh, the game’s afoot!

I’d take Thome in a heartbeat for a temporary, stop-gap measure.

He’s one fuck of a hitter.

If the Yankees simply replaced all of Pettitte (3.3 WAR), Damon (3.0 WAR), and Matsui (2.4 WAR) with in-house options (say, Kennedy, Jackson, and Montero), we’re still looking at a likely playoff team (92-95 wins) and one with a payroll under the luxury threshold ($170 million). And that’s assuming all of the kids are replacement level. And really, would any of us complain about the Steinbrothers stuffing $30 – $40 million into their pockets? In fact, I’d be excited to watch the kids full-time. Montero’s bat is ready. And Jackson’s glove is ready. Between the two alone, that’s at least 2 or 3 wins.

That said, I absolutely love the fact that that strategy isn’t in the Steinbrenner DNA. They’ll spend. The difference now though is that the GM is in control for smarter spending. That’s scary. The farm is just starting to produce again, they play in a ATM, and their biggest rivals are hamstrung by old, decrepit ballparks. It’s a good time to be a fan.

I’d be fine with Thome. I really like how they handled Matsui this year. It was almost the perfect use of the position (450 ABs then rotate through others). Thome is the type of professional who would accept the same almost full-time status. The Yankees certainly have option

Damon in LF scares me. But I’d say pencil him out there and if Matsui gets hurt he’s the DH. I just like the Jeter-Damon combo to give up on it a year too early. And on that score there’s nothing else available.

The plan to not have a full-time DH would mean throwing a “banjo” hitter out there, seemingly for the sake of it, every day of the week…600 ABs for Peña/Cervelli. That is nuts.

[48] I would rather the team have a full-time DH who sits occasionally when Jeter and Posada take a turn, rather than not carry one at all and sacrifice a line up spot every night.

[47] Rotating the DH means an everyday lineup with a well below average backup in the mix. No team can afford to simply punt a spot in the batting order. The Yankees would be foolish to take such a cavalier approach.

[48] The 2009 Yankees had a full-time DH. How did that work out? If the Yankees had a strong 4th OF and catcher platoon, it would make more sense to rotate the DH, but they don’t.

Also, having a strong everyday DH allows you more freedom to completely rest players because his bat extends the lineup. For example, a Matsui (who has an OPS+ over 120) in the lineup everyday makes it easier to sit Jeter and have Pena take his place. Not only is the offensive impact the same as having Jeter DH, but the full rest is even more beneficial.

It’s for one year. IF we lose Matusi. You got a better idea for a temporary DH?

Boras should have left that one out if he wants a 3 year deal.