No, the Sox would rather have a team filled with upside/value guys (like Smoltz, Penny, and yes Hermida) than overpay for anyone, even if that guy is arguably worth it. And for all the kvetching over the “failed” Smoltz and Penny signings, they still won 95 games!

Thus, if I had to bet, the Sox aren’t really interested in Holliday, mostly because he’s a Boras client and they know he’ll come with a premium attached.

And speaking of toeing the line on value and not overpaying, I’ve heard some rumblings in Boston that folks are worried about the Sox letting Beckett go (he’s a free agent after 2010) because they aren’t going to offer him a contract longer than 3 years, or they won’t pay him what he could get on the market, or both. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to Beckett elsewhere in 2011.

2008 and 2009 OPS+:
Melky: 68 and 99
Jeter: 102 and 132
Cano: 86 and 129
Swisher: 92 and 129
Posada: 103 and 133
Damon: 118 and 126 (but we have to replace him for 2010)

Does it really matter what ARod and Tex do if the SIX guys/slots above play like 2008? If they play like 2009, we can Win without an impact LFer. If they play like 2008, every with Holliday in LF, we don’t beat Boston. And if 2010 is halfway between 2008 and 2009, how we replace LF and DH could be the differnce in maiking the Dividion/PS.

Frankly, with our money, I say: “WHY GAMBLE”?
Salary wise, we can trade JD and Nady for Holliday. I know if may be 6 years (but maybe Cashman can swing 5), but I still think it’s a winning move.

Dump Molina, save $2m, and give Brains a shot. What can we lose? Maybe Brains will surprise us and post better numbers then Molina. Not that unlikely. And he sure will be better on the bases.

Hinske made $1.5m last year. Crazy NOT to bring him back for that. JHJr made $2m last year. He’s better then Pena, but we could save $2m and go with Pena without that much loss.

I’d say there is a reasonable shot that Matsui will do a 1 year contract to stay with the Yanks. If not, Thome is 95% of Matsui, and may even be as good or better because of YS.

JD is ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY NOT signing for one year. At 2, maybe… depending on other offers. As much as he loves being a Yankee, the guy wants to pile up numbers. He is eyeballing 3,000 hits. He is concerned with his legacy. If the Yanks really want one year of JD, they will have to overpay by $6m, and get him via Arb.

I say: Same team as last year except Holliday instead of JD, and Thome IF necessary.

Outside of AJax (who really should replace MelkyGardner), we have no OFers on the farm in the next 3 years. I would front load Holliday’s contract a tad (20, 19, 18, 18, 17 and 16) which at least makes a trade possible (if need be) after 4 years. The guy is 30. JD is 36. There is no reason we should not get 4 or 5 fine years from Holliday.

P.S. Theo does NOT really want Bay, hence the rather MickeyMouse offer of 4/$60. Holliday is Boston’s #1 target. Theo does NOT like Bay’s defense, especialy compared to Holliday’s. Tex made us better and hurt the Sox. Holliday will do the same thing.

[57] I never expect the Yanks to go cheap. But with these prospects it would be a nice surprise.

I’d be great to get Dunn via trade, because he’d be the best DH, but I don’t see it happening this offseason.

I’m also pretty sure that they have no problem exposing Corona (again) and Nunez in the Rule 5 draft. Russo they will keep, and it’ll be easy to have a spot for him by letting Molina walk or dropping Guzman or Towers or Mitre. And with both Pena and Russo, they really don’t need Corona or Nunez.

[51] I love Montero too, but the kid has hit poorly since coming back from his injury. I think the worst thing the Yanks could do is to rush him to the bigs now. The extra development time will help him – I think he needs it – and there’s no place for him to play everyday. If they brought him up now, they’d be wasting his major league service time with him sitting on the bench and not developing!

I also think Jackson should start the year in AAA, though I do recall arguing that with Melky playing LF full-time and Jackson/Gardner in CF, the Yanks just might save enough runs on defense to survive the hit on offense.

I’ll actually be surprised if they don’t sign all of Pettitte, Damon, and Matsui. It’s the easiest path and probably the smartest given the market and the long-term flexibility it enables.

Either that or they make a deal. Chad At LoHud spoke to Cashman about the multiple middle infielders that are Rule 5 eligible (Russo, Corona, Nunez) and Cashman referenced the Swisher deal. Adam Dunn is the first name that comes to mind here.