Perhaps some similar analysis could be done computing the run value of an IF error with a runner on 1B (and/or 2B). Again, too lazy to do it, but I suspect that we’d find that:

-the IF plays better (when measured in errors) with Molina behind the plate, when you control for outs/runners on base situations

-there is obviously some run count benefit to the fewer errors

-if we can agree to chalk up the better IF play to Molina, then we have to assign at least some of those runs to Molina’s benefit.

This is what my gut says, though as we know often times stats don’t back up what we swear we can see with our own eyes

BTW don’t get me wrong, I hate Molina’s bat and I want him gone next year for sure. I agree with [15] that I’d like to see Cervelli catch maybe 40-50 games next year and see what he can do.

-How many curve/breaking pitches were *not* thrown by our pitchers for fear of a PB? And in turn how much of a reduction in pitching performance (and in turn, W/L) did that create? Thinking AJ especially here.

-While the SB/CS ratio for both our primary catchers is mostly similar, it seems that teams were simply less likely to run on Molina b/c of the perception that he has a better arm. If so, then there’s value in that, even if not exactly quantifiable in the same way.

You’d have to look at the % SB attempts in each out situation (and I’m lazy like you so will not do it!), see how many fewer attempts were made on Molina as compared to the % attempts on average, and % attempts on Posada, and apply the same ratio to those attempts that did not occur. My guess is that the reduction in attempts, and the successful SBs, would somewhat if not greatly improve the analysis for Molina. It would obviously still not compensate for his awful bat. But it’d probably be less lopsided.

No. Mo’s going to pitch forever! Right . . . right?

goes to find dark corner to curl up in and rock back and forth

I’d say 100 – 120 games behind the dish for Posada. I would like to give Cervelli a chance to show what he’s got at the ML level before making him the full time catcher. He did show a bit this year, but I’d like to see what he can do once the pitching adjusts to him.

Who knows how many runs his defense as a whole costs…but let’s focus on the biggest complaints (his failure to control the running game and passed balls). I played around with Baseball Prospectus’s Runs Expectancy Matrix for 2009 (http://tinyurl.com/yhehwsf), and:

Assume that a runner is one 1B and he steals second, he improves the team’s chance of scoring a run by about .26 runs (with no outs), .15 runs (with one outs) or .10 runs (with two outs). I didn’t calculate for all of the other permutations, because I am basically lazy. I also have no idea how many times, on average, teams steal in different scenarios (how many outs).

Still, eyeballing the list, I think that it’s fair to say a SB costs the defensive team about .20 runs…but let’s round up to .25.

However, for every CS in the same circumstances, the offensive team loses .60 runs (0 outs), .43 runs (1 out) or .22 runs (two outs). Again, guestimating, it looks like the defensive team gains about .50 runs for every CS, or maybe somewhat less.

As for PB: these are like SBs, except that runs often score (a runner scores from 3B on a PB; he rarely steals home). I have no idea how much damage a PB does, but would .50 runs be a generous estimate?

So, accepting these rough estimates, last year Posada on defense:

PB: 8 = – 4 R
SB: 80 = -25 R
CS: 31 = +15 R
Total = -14 R on defense.

According to Baseball-Reference, last season Posada created 72 runs on offense (72 RC — a crude tool, admittedly, but we are dealing in rough estimates).

That looks like a major advantage in runs despite Po’s allegedly catastrophic defense.

===

There is another layer to this analysis, though: we need to consider the level of defense that would replace him. Last year, Jose “Greatest Defensive Cather Ever and Special Burnett Whisperer” Molina:

PB: 3 = -1.5 runs
SB: 23 = -5.75 R
CS: 9 = 4.5 R
Total = -2.75 R, which offsets a good bit of his offensive contribution of 11 RC.

No contest.

Cervelli MiL: .273/.367/.380/.747
Cervelli ML: .283/.294/.354/.648

Short answer: maybe.

But that’s not really the point, because…

It could mean not signing a DH and putting that money ($10m?) elsewhere.

Translation: Instead of having a plus bat at C (Posada) and DH (Matsui or FA), opt for a plus bat at DH (Posada) and hope to not suck at C (Cervelli).

BTW, how much value is there, really, in “above average speed for a catcher” ?

(though to be honest, it looked like he got key hits more often than not; but should I trust my lionize? >;)

Plus, while Steve suggested 50 games for Po in 2010, I would up that to 80. In 2011, it might be 50, depending on Cervelli/Romaine/Montero.

One point is with less D time, might Po’s O be better?
It could mean not signing a DH and putting that money ($10m?) elsewhere. If we DH internally for the next few years, Holliday’s cost seems more reasonable.

It’s possible that Po had an ‘off’ year on D in 2009, but (we all saw that) he was really bad. Worst D for a catcher in MLB. We saw how really bad D hurt Abreu’s overall value.

Could Cervelli be a league average hitter (for a C) with above average glove and speed?

Of course, I still give Po the nod, but it may not be as obvious as we think, and having Po be productive over the next 2 years is an issue. I think it’s an issue to be examined.

FWIW (without looking at the article), moving Po to DH is, well, really, really silly if the option at C is Molina/Cervelli/similar. If the team can manage to get a legitimate MLB catcher in the offseason, then maybe we have something to talk about.

Happy birthday, Mo. And thanks for all the fish.

Over at WW, Steve has a ‘not new topic’, but interesting post:
Yanks Should Move Posada To D.H. In 2010

Actually, there is a lot of good logic for it. Defensive metrics are somewhat inconclusive, especially for a C, but I think we have seen Posada’s D greatly decline, right in front of our own eyes.

This matter would obviously effect the Matsui question, and our roster construction, so it is something Cashman must make his own conclusion on.

(and yes, even though the save wasn’t an official stat til ’69, B-R.com went back and calculated)