Daily Archives: January 21, 2010

Well, these two were absolutely priceless, weren’t they?

[Here is another guest post by Jon DeRosa. Jon has previously written two pieces for Bronx Banter (here and here) and will be a semi-regular this season. Jon played ball at Georgetown and still has that sweet, lefty swing.–AB]

By Jon DeRosa

Of the 8 teams that entered the 2009 postseason, 7 teams saw their closer blow a save or lose a game. The 8th team was the Yankees. As they marched to the 2009 World Series Championship, much was made of Mariano Rivera’s fabulous and unprecedented Postseason career. And rightly so, because no pitcher has ever approached the same quantity of quality innings on the game’s grandest stage. But there are a few quirks of history from which Mariano has undoubtedly benefited that have enabled him to compile his mind-boggling numbers: He plays for the most successful team and his career began exactly at the introduction of the Divisional Playoff Round. He stands, not just alone, but so far isolated as to discourage any conceivable comparison. Nobody’s numbers compare. Nobody’s innings compare. It’s Mariano and then a Grand Canyon to somebody else. And that’s how I like my heroes and gods – unassailable.

But in 2008 didn’t Brad Lidge have a much ballyhooed “prefect” season and playoff run? And wasn’t Papelbon annoyingly brilliant the year before that? And Wainwright and Jenks? And most painfully, didn’t Foulke do a ballsy job in 2004? So then, isn’t the closer on the championship team likely to have pitched as well as Mariano has in any single year? Or do Mariano’s individual series stand out from the pack in the same way that his overall numbers do?

I looked at the closer on every World Series team from 1995-2009 (TB 2008 was the only team without a nominal closer) and compared their postseasons. I wanted to know which guys were the most dominant (K/9, K/BB, BR/9) which guys were the most effective (R+IR/G, WPA) and which guys shouldered the heaviest loads (INN, INN/G) and faced the toughest jams (aLI). I don’t claim to reach definitive conclusions, but I think there’s valuable information to be gleaned:

1) The highest WPA for any closer was 1.56 for John Wetteland in 1996. The lowest was Trevor Hoffman’s –0.35 from 1998.

2) Brad Lidge in 2009 faced the highest leverage situations at 2.90. And it’s no surprise he failed, since 11 of the 13 closers facing the highest aLI’s failed in the World Series. In contrast, 15 of the 16 lowest aLI’s saw the closer emerge unscathed. John Wetteland again distinguishes himself by facing the highest leverage situations without failure (and 4th highest overall): 2.36.

3) Memory matches the stats as Foulke’s change-up racked up 19 Ks in 14inn and Wainwright’s curve ball baffled more than just Beltran – 15 whiffs in 9.2 innings.

4) The Red Sox emulate the Yankees in at least one respect: they want to use Papelbon for multiple innings in the postseason. Other than Mo, Papelbon was the only pitcher to average more than an inning and a half per appearance in any single postseason.

5) Only 3 pitchers have kept a perfectly clean ledger – no runs inherited, earned or unearned. Papelbon, Wainwright, and Rivera (99).

6) Eight of the 15 World Series losers saw their closer blow a game (I am including Rocker in 1999) while only 3 of the 15 winners endured a meltdown. (For ranking purposes below, if he blew a game while losing the series, I didn’t consider him – both Rocker and Rivera version 2001 would have done well otherwise.) Regardless of your opinion on the value of closers, it’s hard to win a 4 game set when you cough up a lead in one of the games.

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Big Mama:

The King:

New York City is a Jets town this week. Lots of barking from players, columnists and the man on the street. I guess I haven’t been paying attention over the years–I was an avid NFL fan, a Jets fan, for most of the 1980s, but haven’t been emotionally charged about the game since–but I don’t understand why so many Jets fans are as brash as they are. I would be waiting for the other shoe to drop, waiting for the Jets to crumble. The older Jets fans I know will be watching Sunday’s AFC Championship game with one eye closed and their nerves decidedly clenched.

This morning, I talked to one of the security guards in my office building about the game. He’s a Mets fan and a Giants fan but he pulls for New York teams across the board. “The Jets are going to win, man,” he said. “I love Peyton, but this is the year for teh Jets.”

I asked if he was betting on the game. “No, I can’t do that, can’d do that. I bet with my heart. I can’t bet against the Jets. I go with my heart.”  Better not to bet at all.

I went upstairs and walked through the kitchenette on my floor. One of the kitchen staff was stocking the fridge full of milk. He is Haitian and has family back home, four brothers and a couple of sisters. He has heard from one of his brothers but doesn’t know about many of his cousins, especially after yesterday’s aftershock. One of his brothers’ wife is pregnant, due to give birth in a few weeks. His brother is trying to convince him to come back to Haiti to help out. But there is no place to live and it is dangerous. He has his own family and doesn’t have money to send. He is not sure what he is going to do. What he can do.

He is a powerfully built man with broad shoulders but has a gentle touch. His face is sympathetic.

I said good morning.

“Same old,” he said. “Same old.” He shrugged. The same thing he says all the time though it doesn’t ring true at the moment. “Same old, but it is good,” he said. “We have life.”

Today’s update is powered by The Charlatans UK:

• Johnny Damon is running out of options.
• Would Rocco Baldelli be a viable OF option?  MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch responds:

. . . Baldelli would make a nice choice for a platoon situation and fits the bill as a right-handed bat that the Yankees could add without breaking the bank. Despite the medical limitations that interfered after he was once a first-round Draft pick, Baldelli can hit — especially against left-handers — and for what it’s worth, he was also well liked in the clubhouse with the Rays and Red Sox.

• FanGraphs crunched the numbers, and values Derek Jeter’s 2009 season quite highly:

Back in late July, R.J. noted that Derek Jeter was having a resurgent offensive season and on his way to an excellent year. Jeter did not let up after that, either. He finished the season with a wRC+ of 142, his best since 2006 and second best since 1999. Combine that with excellent defense at short and Jeter had a 7.5-win season, his best year in the Fangraphs-WAR era and fifth-best among position players in 2009.

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