Comments on: Just Don’t Call Them Winnie and Goose

By: Paul

Paul — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 10:26:47 +0000

One last thought:

1) Granderson – Career on the Road: .284 /.353/.516 = .869
2) Granderson – 2009 on the Road: .267 /.345/.516 = .861

Once you accept that Comerica killed Granderson (and seemed to get in his head in 2009 to the tune of a sub-.700 OPS), you see a guy who’s going to have an excellent season no matter his position. And that’s before any assumption about what YS will do for his numbers.

By: Paul

Paul — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 10:11:35 +0000

Add Neyer to the “normally excellent but what?” crowd on Granderson. Over at NoMaas:

SJK: In every single article we’ve read, no one has mentioned the idea of moving Granderson to LF and making Gardner, who was one of the best CFs in baseball last year, head up the outfield defense. We’ve been advocating that idea for over a month now. What do you think about that idea and do you think there’s a chance it could happen?

RN: I think it’s a fine idea, in a vacuum. But the Yankees don’t play in a vacuum. For one thing, a lot of people would wonder why they traded for — and why they’ll spend at least $26 million on — a left fielder who doesn’t hit a ton.

****

I normally really like all things Cliff, Goldman, and Neyer. Indeed, that’s an excellent crowd. But given his numbers against RHP (.900 OPS) and away from Comerica I think we’re in for a real treat. Here’s a another view. On the road for his career (1454 PA): .284 /.353/.516 = .869. That’s the baseline. Unless you somehow think YS will hurt his swing, we’re looking at a guy who will be pushing or exceeding a .900 OPS. How is that not hitting “a ton”?

By: Mattpat11

Mattpat11 — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 20:04:14 +0000

[18] I’ve been saying for a couple years that Curtis Granderson the person could become a “face of baseball” type guy. Not necessarily the best player, but one of those guys that parents tell their kids to aspire to be. I think coming to New York can only help that.

By: Paul

Paul — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:36:32 +0000

[17] I guess I just think you and Goldman are consistently overstating his flaws given Comerica vs. YS. I mean the difference between the two for lefty batters is huge. Then when we see a .731 OPS versus LHP on the road, I don’t see that as a flaw. It’s an average CF rate. Here, look at this tortured math to arrive at a projection:

RHP – Home: 35% of AB * .950 OPS = .333
LHP – Home: 15% of AB * .780 OPS = .117
RHP – Away: 35% of AB * .900 OPS (career avg) = .315
LHP – Away: 15% of AB * .730 OPS (career avg) = .111

Add all that up? You get a .875 OPS. My only real assumption is that he gets a 50 point benefit in OPS at home. Who here wouldn’t be very pleased by that result? And that’s him playing full-time (i.e., not sitting against LHP). I think that’s conservative but it could be generous too.

Because the projections don’t take into the Comerica vs YS effect, they have him much lower than he should be (.820 to .840 OPS). The FAN version has him at a .865 OPS. It really just comes down to how well he hits in Yankee Stadium. If he gets no benefit, we’re looking at a .820 – .850 OPS hitter. If he gets more than some (i.e., Damon) he’ll be among the most valuable hitters in the game.

By: Horace Clarke Era

Horace Clarke Era — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:28:57 +0000

I didn’t see anyone doubting Granderson either, not in a big way. I share the view that he’ll be a hit in the Bronx, both as a person and as a batter with the short porch.

I think worrying about ‘enough production’ for a corner OF is a silly way to judge who should be CF and LF. If both Gardner and Granderson are playing what does it matter – really! – who plays where from that perspective. The only issue is the better defensive alignment.

By: Cliff Corcoran

Cliff Corcoran — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:12:53 +0000

[14] Was I that negative on the Granderson trade? I think I said it was a solid swap, but warned not to overlook Granderson’s flaws. I think i was trying to temper expectations more than expressing low expectations of my own. Maybe it didn’t come off that way. I should reread it. Pretty sure I said Granderson could hit 40 homers given his new home park and pointed to Comerica’s effects on lefty batters. I also have been an AJax doubter.

By: 51cq24

51cq24 — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:08:40 +0000

[9] since i assume johnson will be in the 2 hole and granderson will hit behind arod, i think the more relevant comparisons are johnson/damon and granderson/matsui. i think that johnson is clearly a better hitter than damon, and that his high obp will make him even more of an upgrade than it looks on paper. granderson is clearly not as good a hitter as matsui, but he is a bit more of a power threat, and should be even more so in yankee stadium, so i think that his impact if he hits behind arod may be comparable to matsui’s, despite his lower obp. i’m pretty optimistic overall. i’m neutral on winn, but i don’t think it’s supposed to be that big a move.

By: Mattpat11

Mattpat11 — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 18:53:28 +0000

[14] Granderson, and to an extent, Vazquez, are the off season moves I’m not worried about at all. I’m surprised so many people are worried about him

By: Paul

Paul — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 18:26:25 +0000

[11] I don’t agree that it’s clear cut. 1) NJ’s minimal defense means he gets more at-bats…if healthy. 2) Matsui himself has to stay healthy. 3) NJ’s production will be more OBP-based but in the #2 slot that’s all he needs to do. By contrast, Matsui is expected to be a run producer. Walks are easier to project than homers.

Granderson is going to make a people look silly this year – I’m looking at Goldman as well as Cliff. By the end of the year when folks look up and he’s approaching a .900 OPS and Ajax is struggling to hit a .700 OPS, we’re going to hear a bunch of stories about how it was a steal. It’s rare that I’m this gung-ho on any player, but I simply can’t see the negatives that some people seem to be hanging onto, especially when I see those Comerica splits. 70% of the time Granderson is going to hammer right-handed pitching. The other 30% of the time he’s going to be above average, especially at home.

By: a.O

a.O — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 18:04:46 +0000

[4] Of course I don’t know for sure, but my suspicion is that the idea of a hard dollar constraint is a fiction designed to create negotiating leverage. That is, if they really wanted or needed someone, the budget would be “flexible” and the money would be found. But where you have everything or nearly everything you need, you can avoid offending fans by saying that Granderson made Damon expendable.

By: Shaun P.

Shaun P. — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 18:00:35 +0000

[7] You are the finance expert, but my guess is that the growth and diversity of the Steinbrenner’s Yankee-related assets of today, compared to 20 years ago, means that a budget is almost a necessity now.

Back when the Boss was still in charge a few years ago, something tells me he was more focused on the here and now than the future, given his advancing age, whereas Hal (who’s under 40 IIRC) and Hank are probably a lot more concerned about the future. A budget makes sense in that perspective as well.

By: Cliff Corcoran

Cliff Corcoran — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 18:00:26 +0000

[9] Matsui > Johnson

By: Bama Yankee

Bama Yankee — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:54:10 +0000

Judging from the baseball card pictured above, either Winn has a very unusual batting grip or he is in the process of laying down a bunt.
Assuming it’s the latter, could we see more “small ball” in our future? Seriously, does anyone know about his bunting skills?

By: a.O

a.O — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:50:10 +0000

[6] My feeling is that the appropriate comparisons are Damon v Granderson and Johnson v Matsui. There, I think we got an upgrade on both, because Johnson is a least capable of
being a defensive replacement and he is less expensive than Matsui with comparable production. Still, that one is close. Damon v Granderson is, IMHO, is not close. And as for Damon v Johnson, it is close and depends on what you assume about Damon’s production going forward. My feeling is that the multi-year deal he seemingly required was not warrented because of the likelihood of a decline due to age and due to comparison to a contract year and due to the fact that his big upside, offense, is not in great need onthe current team. Anyway, that’s my $0.02.

By: Sliced Bread

Sliced Bread — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:39:44 +0000

sensible and solid analysis as always, Cliff.

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:21:01 +0000

The Yankees have a lot of swap-based debt, so maintaining their credit rating is essential. I wonder if the establishment of a budget is geared toward that end?

By: Horace Clarke Era

Horace Clarke Era — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:11:49 +0000

Tidy, Cliff. Your shrug equals my ‘meh’ but Winn is fine for what he’s needed for and what he’s making. For me, it was mainly seeing Damon off in a situation where if everyone had been somewhat smarter we’d have him. What do people feel … Nick J > Johnny D or

Winn, by the way, even at 36 is a nice pinch running option late.

I'd be astonished to see Montero before September … doesn't calling him early also start his clock running sooner? Far more likely Cash makes a July deal for a missing part. It isn't wrong to start a year with a team you think can win, and then fine-tune if needed. That isn't abandoning general rules of (some) fiscal restraint.

Of course other teams find the very idea of 'fiscal restraint' and 200 million appalling.

By: Paul

Paul — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 16:44:29 +0000

Granderson’s .731 OPS against LHP isn’t struggling given his defense. And I have a strong feeling he’ll top that in YS.

If you want to platoon Granderson, fine…but the only place it’s necessary is Comerica.

As for Winn’s arm, where’d you get your info? I’ve seen elsewhere it described as decent and fangraphs has him just above average.

By: Mattpat11

Mattpat11 — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 16:39:27 +0000

[2] I refuse to believe that the budget constraints are fake. Please. Ive come to terms with this. I don’t want to find out in two months that this was done by choice.

In other news, the Yankees hired Kevin Towers.

By: standuptriple

standuptriple — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 16:38:13 +0000

Not the worst insurance plan. He is Melky Sr, but his arm isn’t that bad. Trust me, I went to college with Winn and live/work in the Bay Area. He was abysmal from the right side last year and on numerous times I suggested he stop switch hitting. Maybe being on a team/lineup with more discipline (and seasoned switch hitters) he can rebound.
How strange is this though? I can now say that I have zero-degrees of separation (Kevin Bacon) from not one, but two Yankees (grew up knowing CC). Thanks Cashman!