Gritner, by the way, also has floaty ball infield magic and so logic should also not be applied to any decision involving him. I do wonder, if by some total failure of physics and probability gritner ends the year with slightly above position average offense (plus 55 steals) he is able to hold on to the spot for a second year? Seems unlikely regardless of what he does unless the Hal further lowers the budget and Jeter brings it to the cap…

Short of both arms falling off or developing a serious Crack problem, I can’t imagine Beltre staying with the Sox for $5m. And unless the guy is a quasi-stud, I can’t see the Sox letting him get 640 PAs (and therefore $10m in 2011).

However, it’s not MY opinion that the Sox should get AGon… just the Boston media that has been talking about this since last year. But I think we can agree that the Sox will be looking for a big bat next year. I’m not sure what VMart is worth as a FA (Sox have him for $7.7m this year), but I don’t think the Sox want him behind the dish… so he’s probably gone after this year… unless they want him as a full time DH/BUC.

The Sox got Lackey, and set themselves up as a Pitching/Defense first team, with hopes that VMart and Beltre’s bats would fill in for Bay. If they land in 3rd place, my guess is a major turn around and shopping for a slugger or 2, hopefully a RHB. Beckett, Lester, Lackey and Dice-K are signed for 2011, so while they might go after 1 SP, I think at least 1 big bat will be their priority. Also, Nancy and Cameron are signed for 2011, so unless they move Ellsbury to a #4 OFer, ‘The Big Bat’ must be an INFer or DH.

My guess is:
AGon/1st
Midget, Scutaro (signed for $5.500 in 2011) and Youk at 3rd.
MAYBE Vmart at DH (if he’s good this year and cheap next year)
They get a decent, young Catcher (probably via trade).
And maybe a big Bat for LF, and make due with Ellsbury/Cameron for CF/4th OFer.

[3] beltre has a 2011 player option. if he exercises it, what is the point of gonzalez for the red sox unless you use him or ugly at dh?
in which case they still have no catcher and ss, cf, and lf are suspect.

I’m not certain how much Howard’s deal effects Crawford. They are two entirely different players; Ryan’s game is power and Carl’s is speed and defense. The halo effect would have to be pretty enormous. Adrian yes, Werth maybe-probably because of how the two have coexisted in the lineup (co-depended?).

[2] That is one of the main reasons I like having Swish on this team. Not that anyone would consider it, but you’d think he would practically insist on doing it if need be.

Looking at the Yankees Offensive stats, I’m surprised to see that aside from Po and Cano (poetry) kicking serious ass, and Swisher being a bit better (.877 OPS) then we may have expected, every other starter is somewhere between slightly underperforming to Doghood…. althought maybe Jeter (.792) is where he will end up?

Watching NJ has been painful, but he still has an OBP of .385, tied with other-Nick. I’m not worried though. If he’s healthy, he will hit.

Actually, considering the schedule (teams played and 70% of games played on the Road), ARod, NJ and Teix (our vaulted 2,3,4 combo with a combined .658 OPS), it’s kind of amazing we are playng .650 ball. My guess is Po and Cano are 9-1 and the rest of the team is 4-6. I think this actually bodes very well for us. Once ARod, NJ and Teix get going, we could be truly scary.

Reading around these InterNets, it seems the feeling is the Howard deal will single-handedly inflate the FA market, and put guys like Werth, Crawford and especially Adrian Gonzalez in a very good position. If teams really want these guys and aren’t willing to sit back and wait, we are going to see some seriously overpaid contracts.

This could be very good for us. We might want a LFer next year, but with Montero coming aboard, our 2011 offense may already be on the field. However, my guess is the Sox are going to seriously want to reload. If they finish 3rd, RSN will cry for EVERY big gun on the market. They have been drooling over AG for a while, and at 28 years old, he may be looking for 8/$180m. From 2007 thru 2009, his ROAD OPS has been .970! In reality, and away from SD, he may be more valuable the Howard (He appears to be just a tiny bit behind in WAR).

Frankly, if we replace Andy and NJ with Cliff Lee and Montero, our payroll only goes up about $3-5m…. unless we swap JV and Joba, in which case we lower the payroll.

And I won’t even guess what Crawford (he of career .344 wOBA, 104 OPS+, 4 WAR) gets. I know he has great legs and glove, but I’m not sure how his WAR comps with AG and Howard, but it does. Granted, he’s a very nice player, but I can’t see paying $15m AAV or more for him.

All in all, I think we are in fine shape.