If there’s a significant cost to the PH move, that makes it very questionable. I suspect that there is no significant prospect of Posada needing a DL stint.

Thinking about it more, it also shows that he does not really trust Teix either (or else he would not have been so driven to score the run in THAT at bat), but he is more resistant to PH for the Teix for whatever reasons.

Of course, that does not mean he increased the chance of scoring the additional run by 25%. For example, so far this season NJ has hit the ball to the OF 27% of the time, Posada 40%. In terms of strikeouts, NJ has K-ed 27% of his PAs, Posada 14%.

So, PH with Po increased the chances of scoring the one run *in that AB*, say, 15%?

It’s not that you’re afraid of NJ walking. It’s that walking, which is his strength, isn’t (very) helpful in the circumstances. The stuff that Posada does well is very helpful.

unless (maybe) if you have no faith in the guy batting after him. But, this is more an indictment of Teixeira, no?

Sure. But Girardi has to go to war with the… nah, forget that one.

My guess is that PH Posada only marginally increased the odds that the ball would be put in play and score a run (I’m guessing a 25% better chance of the ball put in play, of which the run scores only on a subset).

That’s a lot, by my standards. Suppose you gain 10% in your chances of scoring a run. Think of it this way: with a runner on second, it’s the difference between having a .350 hitter at the plate and having a .250 hitter.

But if he walks, then you still need Teixeira to get the run in, and that’s not automatic.

This is true. Though the idea that you would pinch hit for a batter because you are afraid of him walking is bizarre, if you ask me, unless (maybe) if you have no faith in the guy batting after him. But, this is more an indictment of Teixeira, no? As I suggested last night, if the run at 3B is so important, then perhaps the better move is let the high OBP guy try to get him in (NJ) and if that fails, PH for Teixeira, who is scuffling about as much as anyone in the lineup. Then move NJ to 1B for the last inning or two.

Of course nothing is automatic. As we saw last night, putting in Posada did not get the run in from 3B. My guess is that PH Posada only marginally increased the odds that the ball would be put in play and score a run (I’m guessing a 25% better chance of the ball put in play, of which the run scores only on a subset).

I guess the point is that the one extra run has a lot of value compared to additional runs you might score in a rally

Very true. But it does not take into account things like the ramifications for potentially having to DL Posada. Or, for that matter, since the run was relatively unimportant, giving NJ an extra AB to work out of his slump…or letting him walk so that Teix can take a crack at driving in the run.

As I said last night, this is all pretty small stuff; I recognize that my complaint is greatly out of proportion. On the other hand, that third run was so marginal and the odds of scoring it improved (my guess) to such a small degree, that it begs for an action v. non-action analysis. That Girardi made the move, unless he really, really felt that the one run was important, suggests that he has lost faith in NJ—which again was my main beef. But if has, then why bat the man #2?

Of course. But if he walks, then you still need Teixeira to get the run in, and that’s not automatic.

Look, Posada and NJ have essentially the same OBP. But (i) NJ has a much, much smaller chance of getting a hit, and (ii) this year he’s striking out a whole lot more. Those are the two main factors that will decide whether the runner scores from third, so Posada is a much better bet.

As you say, they already had the lead, so cashing in the runner on third was not vital (though I imagine that at that stage, a three run lead is much bigger than a two run lead).

Entering the 8th with a 2 run lead, the home team wins 9 out of 10. With a 3 run lead, it’s 19 out of 20. With Chamberlain and Rivera in the bullpen, I’m sure the Yankee’s win expectancy was higher than that. I guess the point is that the one extra run has a lot of value compared to additional runs you might score in a rally (thus, NJ working a walk is low value in that situation).

It took a *very* good throw from Konerko to get him, he was this close to being safe and the throw could have just as easily hit him, given the angle Konerko took in throwing it.

Dodger Stadium looks cook. Vin Scully announcing the game by himself is a pleasure to listen to. Jonathon Broxton looks like he could be a sumo wrestler. The Pirates are an awful, awful team.

Time to head out, hope to wake up and read a good game re-cap!

How has Johnson been singled out. Well, admittedly I do not get all of the games on TV up here, but when I have watched and listened to the games the announcers harp on NJ’s struggles, he’s too passive, etc. Then a few games ago supposedly adopted a new “aggressive” approach (much lauded by Singleton). Then we hear on LoHud that Girardi, until recently more or less supporting NJ, questioning his approach: “Girardi said Nick Johnson, who’s back in the lineup, may be taking too many pitches at times, that Mark Teixeira may be starting to come around and that A-Rod has basically been hitting in hard luck.”

Yes, he hurt his back, but I am not convinced that this was not used as an excuse to sit him for an extra game or two. After all, NJ was used to PH on April 27 after sitting for two games. Then he sat again on April 29. Yes, against a LHP, but NJ has hit LHP ever so slightly better than RHP over his career.

It’s starting to look to me—and this is just the sense that I get—that NJ is becoming the first guy Girardi bumps from the lineup, despite Girardi’s public statements about remaining patient. I’m sure that I’m overreacting, but we’ll see how this continues to play out as the season goes on.

My other concern with PH Posada—even to test his leg—was raised in the game thread: now they have lost the chance to retroactive DL him if it turns out that the injury is more severe than previously thought.

In the end, this is all small potatoes. I guess my real complaint derives from my role as NJ apologist. Batters are struggling up and down the lineup, including Teixeira (who has not been putting the ball in play as much as NJ), but Girardi *seems* to have singled out NJ, who is at least getting on base.

I agree about the BP absurdity, but at this point I’ve almost given up even thinking about it.

I did have a problem with using Marte to face Mark Teahen with a two-run lead leading off the eighth. Was that necessary? What if the Sox had tied it up and a lefty had come up in a more important situation later? Joba can’t face a lefty with no one on base and a two-run lead? Managers do this sort of thing constantly, it’s absurd.

As for Cervelli’s helmet, I’m pleased to see him sticking with it and glad it’s a non-issue, save for Al Leiter praising him for wearing it on tonight’s broadcast. It certainly isn’t hurting his hitting. Cervelli is quickly becoming one of my favorite Yankees, not because of his value, but because of his attitude. I love watching him burn behind the plate, jawing, gesticulating, making big convoluted windups to throw the ball back to the pitcher or around the horn. Seems he talks non-stop on every mound visit. He cracked Rivera up after the last out. Plus he’s got that old-school vibe with the high socks and no batting gloves, but, and this is the key, he’s smart enough not to rail against a helpful measure like the helmet.