I am also unclear about how you were able to get a full season’s worth of data, considering that we’ve only played two months. If you used last year’s data, I don’t see how that is relevant this season.

I really can’t follow your comments, so I apologize if you’ve already addressed these issues.

[35] What fuss? I just don’t think your conclusion has any merit. What has happened so far is significant, but your conclusion is not, in my opinion (which could very well be wrong).

As I said, I’ll respond to the other point later.

But there is a certain comedy to making such a fuss over what’s happened so far and then dismissing numbers based on what’s happened so far – seeing as my point, all along, has been that what has happened so far has only limited significance.

Because, at present, that’s the difference between playing the Detroit Tigers or the Texas Rangers every night versus playing a slightly better Chicago White Sox every night.

When you take that over fifty games, playing that same team every night, the 26-24 team presents a significantly more difficult challenge than the 23-27 team.

Or, if you look at the numbers which represent a full season worth of games, those differences are like the differences between playing an 85.5-76.5 *every single night* versus playing a team that is 79.5-82.5 *every single night*.

Which is six full games. Or, if you look at last year’s final results, something very close to the difference between playing a playoff team from last year (Minnesota or Detroit) *every night* versus playing something close to last year’s Chicago White Sox *every night*.

Both of these represent significant differences. It’s like you’re pretending to not understand the weight of averages when you pile that many games into creating them.

Right now, I’ll bet you’re drooling over guys whose stats represent a 3 WAR (a Robbie Cano, last I checked) – and rightly so.

As to my comps, to be more accurate, I could try to cobble together the home versions and road version comps that you would be facing *every night*.

But the power of averages with some numbers underneath them means that 3 full games in the standings – or 6 full games (if you look at the full season numbers) – is a significant weight when it represents what you face for every one of those days.

I’ll have comments on whether or not you remove games played by the relevant team against their opposition later – which I have had thoughts for and against – but that has to wait for now.

[25] Not sure where your numbers are coming from, but ESPN has the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays strength of schedule at .513, .521 and .484. Over 50 games, the difference between those records is about 2 games. Quality of opponent is clearly important, but it has not been nearly as significant as you keep suggesting.

So, here’s the rundown:

The Yanks sit two games back of Tampa in the loss column, and have two and three less losses, respectively, than Toronto and Boston.

It’s hard to get that excited right now about a team that has absolutely zero arms I trust outside of Mo (I’m falling on the side of that short stretch being just a blip, and possibly injury-related). If we don’t start to see some reliability from Robertson or Joba or Marte, if Ace doesn’t come back and we don’t see a magical resurrection of CHoP, I’m not tooptimistic.

We gave William his two weeks, though, and instead of the 7 to 8 games back he imagined, it’s two in the loss column.

If the bullpen doesn’t turn it around, things could get ugly fast enough, again – and there’s so much left of the season that anything could happen. That being the main point – *anything can happen*.

And in case folks missed it the other day, as much as the Rays *look* like a very good team, they got out to that start, in part, by playing the easiest schedule – and I mean the easiest BY FAR.

Here’s who the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox have ACTUALLY faced thus far, breaking opponents into home versions and road versions (Toronto may be for real – if our bullpen hasn’t sunk us by then, and if Toronto proves some staying power by being in the thick of things at that point, at the All Star break, I’ll add them to the spreadsheet):

#1: Updated Opponent Combined Winning Percentage, 2009 pre-September records plus current records -

Yankees: .527

Rays: .490

Red Sox: .509

#2: Updated Opponent Combined Winning Percentage, Current Records only (aka Big Willie-style, aka what has happened so far is *overwhelmingly significant*) -

Yankees: .517

Rays: .454

Red Sox: .505

What’s happened so far is of dubious significance, and anything can happen from here on in. But the numbers don’t lie – those are significant differences in the difficulty of opposition faced in the first 50+ games. No matter how you slice it.

ooh, i’m sorry it’s loud by you. i was thinking your situation was better since those horrible rednecks left. i’m on a wonderfully quiet cul-de-sac in a safe neighborhood. i loves it!

that said, i am listening to metal at a somewhat decent volume right now! : ) but i never listen to music too loudly and it’s not disturbing anyone. i hope you find some quietude and get some sleep.

perhaps the perpetual purring of the pinstriped score truck will rock you to neverland! : )

Oh and I kind of got facetiousness in the post but forgot my own snark tags. But yeah, thanks!

[20] dude. i’m right there with you! when i left the studio, i put on espn radio and was confused, as well.

glad you had a good weekend! at least one of us did. mine was brutally uneventful…

Another painful Maddon loss, needless to say.