4/80, sure fine, you my boy Jete. What about 6/120? 5/100? yeesh. I guess we’ll see!

Don’t forget too that Igawa’s $4M/year comes off the books in 2012.

Speaking of forgetting, I forgot about Winn in [29], so make that “the Yanks payroll will go down by about nine million dollars. (+$7.5M + 0 + $4M – $18.5M – $1M -$1.1M = – $9.1M).”

Note too that if the Yanks decide Marte is expendable, that’s another -$3.75M off the books.

Bottom line – the Yanks can easily afford to pay Jeter $20M/year without any worries at all.

With respect to Jeter, I’m not suggesting you cripple the organization and give him a shortstop contract for life, or some sort of deal that allows him to play the position longer than Jerry Lewis’s deal to host telethons, but I’ll put it this way:
there will and should be very little if any negotiation of Jeter’s next deal. His agents will present a figure, the Yankees will present a figure, and a deal will be made rather quickly, I’m predicting. Questioning what he’s really worth, and breaking out the “Projected WAR X $4m per” calculator.. not worth it if you ask me.

I love that you give it so much thought, though — and I appreciate your knowledge of the game, and your detailed posts.

All interesting questions to be sure, but if your concern is the payroll, why not look at the payroll?

Salary bumps for various players (Tex, Swish, Cano, Granderson) and a drop for A-Rod adds $7.5M to the payroll.

The “chaff” (Park, Miranda, Mitre, Gaudin, Logan, Thames) are being paid about $4.6M. Let’s guess that keeping/replacing those guys costs the same, so change of $0.

The arb-eligible players are Hughes and Joba (and Logan, but I’ve already dealt with him above). Let’s guess that new contracts/arbitration awards for Hughes and Joba add about $4M more to the payroll.

Then we get to the 5 free agents. Mo re-signs for $15M/year (change of $0). Pettitte retires (I think he will) (-$11.75M). Nick the Sick gets the boot (-$5.25M). Finally, Vazquez re-signs for 2 years, $20M ($10M/year, -$1.5M).

Finally, let’s say the Yanks do offer Jeter a $20M/year contract (which would be -$1M).

Presuming all the assumptions I’ve made above are true – and at the least, I think they are reasonable – the Yanks payroll will go down by about eight million dollars. (+$7.5M + 0 + $4M – $18.5M – $1M = – $8M).

So let’s just say that I’m not especially worried about the Yanks offering Jeter $20M/year. I’ll even go out on a limb and say he signs for less than that ($18M), with some kind of Brett/Ryan/Clemens “personal services” contract on the side.

2010 $11,215,937
2011 $10,649,828
2012 $6,662,530
2013 $5,141,060
2014 $3,369,376
2015 $1,239,694
2016 $132,406

Jeter: 22.6
Rivera: 15.0
Pettitte: 11.75
Vazquez: 11.5
NJ: 5.50
CHPark: 1.20
Winn: 1.10
Thames: .9

Total: $ 69.55 million

That’s a lot of dough. The Yankees can easily resign Jeter and Mo for too much and too many years, and still have plenty of fundage left over. And then in 2012, Posada’s 13.1 million comes off the books.

well-stated!

may I ask what you do for a living? finances?

Would you consider Jeter at 20 mil a “loss leader”?

My larger point, however, is that every time Jeter has a lesser year or (like last night) gets caught stealing (so he’s only successful 75% of the time this season), some folks start throwing around phrases like “slowing down” and “decline” and discussing how the team can’t/shouldn’t pay too much for his services…all the while completely overlooking that even in diminished form he is still one of the top few players at his position, a premium position at that!

So, given the Yankees generous budget and limited options for replacement, 4/80 (for example) just doesn’t seem all that problematic to pay for one of the best players at a premium position, even if it is likely to get uglier at the end of the contract (but by which time 20 million would be worth relatively less AND other players will be off the books allowing the team to, effectively, offset overpaying by probably a year or so).

So I’ll ask again.
What is he worth as a FA?
(Hint: Projected WAR x $4m per)

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html

SS free agents after 2010:
Alfredo Amezaga (age 33)
Orlando Cabrera (36) – $4MM mutual option with a $500K-$1MM buyout
Juan Castro (39)
Alex Cora (35) – $2MM option vests with 80 starts
Craig Counsell (40)
Bobby Crosby (31)
Adam Everett (34)
Alex Gonzalez (33) – $2.5MM club option
Khalil Greene (31)
Cristian Guzman (33)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (35)
Cesar Izturis (31)
Derek Jeter (37)
Julio Lugo (35)
Jhonny Peralta (29) – $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Nick Punto (33) – $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Edgar Renteria (35) – $10.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jose Reyes (28) – $11MM club option with a $500K buyout
Miguel Tejada (37)
Juan Uribe (31)
Omar Vizquel (44)

Not an appealing lot … maybe Peralta or Uribe?

I get your overall analysis, but comparisons between Donnie and Jeter large fail to compel. Donnie was beloved, but he was basically a below average producer for a 1B with a long history of injuries when his contract ran out at age 34.

Jeter is a well above average producer at a premium position coming off a near MVP season. He has no serious history of injuries. Simply put, he is a much better investment even at this late stage in his career than Donnie Baseball was.

Is Jeter worth 3/45 or 4/80? I have no idea. But I do not think that 4/80 cripples this team even if (and it is an IF) Cashman wants to stay at 200 million (for now…presumably his budget will increase by 2014). We have to remember who will be coming off the books in the meanwhile: Posada, Mo, Burnett, Igawa (!), Marte. Some of these guys may resign, some not, some for less money. CC can opt out of his contract after next season.

“You’re not really worried about Tex and ARod are you?”
Yes… I am. You have never seen a great player have a bad year?
The truth is, Teix doesn’t need a .900 OPS for the season, but the team could use him to have a .900 OPS from now on. And on ARod… might his hip be an issue? We can all see he is not running as well.

Now I’m not REALLY worried, but I don’t know if we can rely on Cano and Swisher to carry the team the whole year. And certainly in the PS, we need our big bats.

Record aside…. Is this team really playing as well as youz guyz expected?

On Jeter: Derek is a great, HOF player. But he’s not the first great player the Yankees have had. No, I wouldn’t trade him, as they did the Babe. B/4 Jeter, Donnie was a beloved Yankee, and they didn’t even re-sign him, no less make him one of the top 5 paid players in the game.

I don’t think the Yankees have mistreaded Jeter, paying him $189m over the last 10 years. And I do want to re-sign him. But I hear numbers like 4/$80m being thrown around. With our other contracts on the books, I don’t see overpaying him by 50%.

Jeter has done a LOT for the Yankees.
But New York has done a LOT for Derek.
My guess is if he’s on Texas, he’s still a first ballot HOFer, but has millions less in endorsement money.

Quick question:
If at 36, he is a 111 OPS+ SS, what’s he worth as a FA?
My guess is 3/$45 at best. And I think that’s high. Am I wrong?

I’m not hating on Jeter…. however……
It seems to me Cashman is trying very hard to keep the payroll at $200m or less. IF… if this is true, 4/$80 for Jeter could really hurt this team

Hm. Didn’t we hear this a whole lot in 2008, when he hit .300/.363/.408/.771?

Now, a (somewhat) more serious answer to your question (should they pay him). Accepting the flaws in OPS+, Jeter’s relatively poor performance in slash stats this year still results in a 111 OPS+, as good or better than he hit in 1996, 1997, 2002 (when he was 28 y.o.!), 2008, and a smidge below 2004. In other words, he’s having an off year, so far, but we’ve seen this before.

Moreover, his 111 OPS+ is far better than the average AL SS (currently averaging 85 OPS+), and is in fact not far behind the average AL 1B (115 OPS+).

I’ll take his production at the SS position every day of the week and a double-header on Sunday. Given the Yankees’ relatively unlimited budget, you bet I would extend him for a few years at a zillion dollars. Would that investment “pay off” in the long run? Probably not.