Daily Archives: July 16, 2010

It has been two months since the last meeting between the Yankees and Rays, the teams with the two best records in baseball who also happen to share the same division, but the two teams have 13 games against each other in the second half starting with this weekend’s three-game set in the Bronx. When they last met, the Rays padded their lead in the East by winning a pair of slugfests at the Trop by a combined score of 18-12, sending the Yankees packing five games out of first place. Since then, the two teams have switched places, with the Yankees entering this weekend’s set with a two game lead in the East, having thus gained seven games on the Rays in the last two months.

Introducing that last series, I wrote about how the Rays had played over their heads to that point, scoring more runs than their component offensive numbers would suggest thanks to some effective baserunning and clutch hitting. Indeed, the primary difference between the two teams thus far has been run production. The Rays and Yankees are one and two in the AL in both fewest runs allowed (Rays: 3.85 R/G; Yanks: 4.00 R/G) and defensive efficiency (Yanks: .714; Rays: .708). The big difference is is on offense, where the Yankees have scored 5.33 runs per game with potential for second-half improvements from Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and a healthy Jorge Posada, while the Rays have scored 5.05 runs per game despite slugging just .405 as a team, the ninth-best mark in the league, which suggests they’re more likely to head in the other direction.

The Rays have improved at catcher, as 26-year-old rookie John Jaso has solidified the position with his strong on-base skills (.274/.393/.377), while former Yankee prospect Dioner Navarro, now also 26, has been farmed out to Triple-A after hitting .216/.268/.314 in 531 plate appearances between last year and this. They have yet to solve the designated hitter spot, however. When they last met the Yankees, the Rays had just dropped Pat Burrell in favor of Hank Blalock, but since then they’ve released Blalock as well, turning to Matt Joyce, the outfielder they received from the Tigers for Edwin Jackson. Joyce has shown some on-base skills of his own, walking 11 times against just seven strikeouts in 15 games, he hasn’t actually hit yet. Altogether, the Rays DHs have hit .240/.307/.373 on the season.

That’s better than what they’ve gotten from Jason Bartlett at shortstop, but at least Bartlett contributes in the fiel . . . huh? What’s that you say about his UZR numbers this season? Oh. So why hasn’t Reid Brignac stolen his job yet? Bartlett hit what last season? And what makes you think that was anything but a fluke? Hello? Hello? . . . I think they hung up.

Where was I?

Oh, so yeah, the Rays’ offense has its problems. It’s basically Crawford, Longoria, some solid on-base rates from Jaso and Ben Zobrist (.385, but a .398 slugging), the occasional Carlos Peña dinger (he has 18, but is still hitting just .203/.321/.415), and some bonus stolen bases from B.J. Upton when he actually gets on base (.230/.320/.395, but 25 for 31 on the bases). Sean Rodriguez has some power and speed, which is nice from a second-baseman, but he’s drawn just six walks all year (one every 39 plate appearances!) and has a .302 OBP.

Still, with their pitching and defense, the former of which includes a deeper end game than the Yankees thanks to strong showings from hard-throwing 32-year-old righties Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit and spectacular work from newly imported closer Rafael Soriano (1.60 ERA, 4.14 K/BB, 23 of 24 save chances converted), the Rays remain dangerous, and this weekend’s series will likely be just an opening salvo in battle between the two teams down the stretch.

While I have my eye on Sunday’s game, which pits veteran lefty Andy Pettitte against tyro southpaw David Price, both whom ranked among the top pitchers in the league in the first half, tonight’s game presents a far more favorable pitching matchup for the Yankees. It’s not that James Shields is a pushover, though he’s struggled of late, going 1-3 with a 6.29 ERA in his last four starts allowing at least four runs each time out and going 2-7 with a 7.66 ERA over his last nine appearances (eight of them starts, one a throw-day relief appearance in extra innings). It’s more that CC Sabathia has looked unbeatable of late going 8-0 with a 1.81 ERA over his last eight starts, all of them quality, all lasting a minimum of seven innings. He has faced the Rays once this year, holding them scoreless for 7 2/3 innings back on April 10, and is pitching on normal rest having started the Yankees’ last game on Sunday, so there’s little reason to expect his rhythm to be disrupted.

More good news, Juan Miranda has returned to the team to boost the feeble bench, bouncing Kevin Russo back to Scranton and starting at DH tonight and batting eighth between Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner. Jorge Posada is behind the plate, making this the best offensive lineup the Yankees have run out in some time.

The Yankees will honor Bob Sheppard and George Steinbrenner before the game. It seems fitting that they’re playing Tampa tonight given the Boss’s home base there and the added emphasis he always placed on beating the Rays. I expect the Yankees will do him proud tonight.

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Harry James, you guys…

A Very, Very Resilient Little Muscle

“How the hell do I know why there were Nazis? I don’t know how the can opener works!”

One thing I like about Woody Allen is that, for the most part — and unlike so many of even my favorite movie directors — he tries to create complete, psychologically complex female characters. It doesn’t always work, but I appreciate the effort. Martin Scorsese, to pick just one example, has made some of my favorite movies ever, but no more than a handful of female character with more than two dimensions.

Mia Farrow, Dianne Weist, and Barbara Hershey star in Hannah and Her Sisters as Hannah and… her sisters, Holly and Lee. Hannah is married to Michael Caine’s Elliot, and her ex-husband is hypochodriachal comedy writer Mickey, played by — well, you’ll never guess. But Allen wisely casts himself here as a kind of comedic Greek chorus figure, and not the leading man. The sisters’ various relationships, with each other and with a number of different men, make up the movie’s many plot threads, particularly Elliot’s doomed secret affair with Lee. (Michael Caine is one of the very, very few actors who could pull off this role without leaving you loathing the character, although I still end up having less sympathy for him than Allen’s script seems to). The great ensemble of complex, distinctive, well-drawn characters is the real strength of Hannah and Her Sisters – one of my favorite Woody Allen movies after Annie Hall and Manhattan, and one that he clearly poured a lot of care into.

The movie is packed with cameos, and future stars in small roles – Julie “Marge Simpson” Kavner plays a producer on a comedy show that also employs, for one or two lines each, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Lewis Black, and John Turturro. Allen must have had one hell of a casting director. Sam Waterston plays a slimy-suave architect who dates both Holly and her friend April – who’s played by Carrie Fischer. J.T. Walsh and Daniel Stern make appearances, the sisters’ parents are played by the late, great Lloyd Nolan and Maureen O’Sullivan, and Lee’s pretentious older artist lover is the awesome Max von Sydow. A very very young Soon-Yi Previn even shows up at the end as a “Thanksgiving Guest”.

Woody Allen, even in his youth, was always something of a grumpy old man – he never warmed up to rock and roll even a little bit, and after complaining about Bob Dylan in Annie Hall, here he grouches endlessly about having to sit through the “noise” of a punk band. Everyone in this movie loves opera, jazz, classical music, fine art, and Cole Porter; only Diane Weist’s insecure cokehead listens to musical genres that developed since 1950. But if you can overlook those rather anachronistic character touches in a movie that’s otherwise very much of its 1980s New York setting, you find some very believable, recognizable people. No one in this movie is a villain; everyone is just trying to muddle through, with varying degrees of success. And Allen’s script is big enough to find some sympathy for everyone.

Much like Mia Farrow’s character in Purple Rose of Cairo, Woody Allen’s Mickey essentially has his life saved after a half-hearted suicide attempt by movies – in this case, the Marx Brothers, who convince him that even if life is meaningless and God nonexistent, we might as well try to enjoy ourselves while we’re here. I never found it especially convincing that he and a suddenly transformed Dianne Weist end up blissfully together at the end of the film (with her sister’s/his ex-wife’s blessing), but I do buy into the moral a bemused Allen expresses in the final scene – “The heart is a very, very resilient little muscle, it really is.”

In a way, it’s the same message Allen had for the audience at the end of Annie Hall – a message I like so much that when my dad asked me to read something at his wedding last month, that’s what I picked. We need the eggs.

Granted, all of this might be a little easier to fully embrace if Allen’s own private life hadn’t taken such a creepy turn in the 90s, but never mind; as is so often the case, you have to separate the man’s personal life from his creative one if you hope to ever enjoy a movie without conducting a moral audit of its director. Which is something that I think Allen, or at least the desperate movie-loving character he plays here, would entirely agree with.

I met George Steinbrenner one time. It was at Doubleday Field about ten or 12 years ago. The Boss was in town to watch his minor league affiliate, the Oneonta Yankees, play in the annual NY-Penn League game that is part of Hall of Fame Weekend. I asked Steinbrenner if he would be willing to do an interview for the Hall of Fame’s video archive. Not only did Steinbrenner say yes to my request, but he expressed enthusiasm about the interview. He asked me my name, showing interest in what I did for the Hall of Fame. Throughout the interview, he was charming, gracious, engaging. At the end of our talk, I felt as if I had just interviewed an old friend at a college reunion. Frankly, the man could not have been nicer.

Quite obviously, George Steinbrenner treated his employees quite differently, particularly his office secretaries, public relations directors, general managers, and field managers. If I had worked for The Boss, I would have lasted about a day and a half. I suspect that I would have reacted to his first tirade with a few choice words of my own, or at least a prompt letter of resignation. Steinbrenner’s mistreatment of his underlings was one of his worst traits, a character flaw that was mocked so skillfully by Larry David in so many of those classic Seinfeld episodes.

While I can offer no defense of the way The Boss treated people in the front office, I have long been a defender of his old habit of railing against Yankee players and performance. He made an art form of critiquing slumping Yankee teams during the 1970s and eighties. My father and I found those media sessions to be great theater, often hysterically funny. And, here’s the thing, they were usually justified. When Steinbrenner issued one of his scathing assessments, they came in response to a prolonged period of poor play, seeming lack of effort, or general underachievement. He reacted just like fans would, just like fans at Bronx Banter usually do when the team fails to win.

I never felt sympathy for the players in those situations. Steinbrenner almost always paid his players well, even the backups and the middle relievers, and generally provided first- class amenities in the clubhouse, on the team’s charter, and at Yankee functions. When you make big money and enjoy the luxury of big league life, and then you don’t perform up to expectation, you have no right to complain when The Boss gets mad about it. Imagine that, a high-paying owner expecting his players to live up to their reputations and their salaries.

On a larger scale, Steinbrenner brought vivid color and personality to the owner’s box. Unlike too many of the owners in today’s corporate front office structure, Steinbrenner was passionate about his team, engrossed fully in the game as a fan, and knowledgeable about its many subtleties. As Bill Madden emphasizes in his new biography, Steinbrenner may very well be the last owner who was larger than life, a fully bloomed character.

I suspect that Madden is right. Now that The Boss is gone for good, the game has become a little less interesting.

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Hitters yesterday, pitchers today.

Starters:

CC Sabathia: 12-3, 3.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.54 K/BB, 13 QS (68%)

Sabathia tends to start slowly in April, but after a dud on Opening Day Night, he ran off six straight strong starts, which spoiled us a bit and made his three bad outings in his next four turns and May gopheritis (8 homers in his first five starts that month) seem like a bigger problem than they actually were. Since the calendar flipped to June, he’s gone 8-0 with a 1.81 ERA and just two home runs allowed in eight starts. Crisis over. Incidentally, after 19 starts last year, CC was 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA.

A

A.J. Burnett: 7-7, 4.75 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.76 K/BB, 8 QS (44%)

Burnett had only two real duds over the first two months of the season, but his June was a total disaster: 0-5, 11.35 ERA, 9 homers in just 23 innings over five starts. Those five starts coincided exactly with pitching coach Dave Eiland’s absence from the team, and A.J. has been sharp in his two starts since Eiland’s return (13 2/3 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 0 HR). That bodes well for Burnett’s second-half performance, but, jeez, talk about a hothouse flower. A.J. is the second-highest paid starter in the Yankee rotation, but is last among the team’s starting five in each of the stats listed above, largely due to his horrid June.

C-

Andy Pettitte: 11-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.49 K/BB, 13 QS (76%)

Pettitte, who just had the best first half of his 16-year career, was undeniably the Yankees’ ace in the first half. He allowed more than three runs in just three of his 17 starts, completed five innings in every one of those 17 starts, and completed six or more innings in 14 of them. Despite Pettitte’s protests, the Yankees skipped his second start in May because of some tightness in his elbow, but he had only allowed one run in the start before being skipped, allowed none in six innings after returning to action, and hasn’t had any further problems with the elbow since. As a pitcher who’s ERA has been nearly a half-run lower in the second half than the first over the course of his career, he’s a legitimate Cy Young contender.

A+

Javier Vazquez: 7-7, 4.45 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.11 K/BB, 9 QS (53%)

Vazquez’s return to the Yankees started almost as badly as his previous stint ended, though in retrospect, his 1-3, 9.78 ERA performance over his last five starts doesn’t look so bad compared to Burnett’s five-start in June. Javy at least had a win and back-to-back starts in which he allowed fewer runs than innings pitched. Still, Vazquez was lacking velocity on his fastball and seemed to be pitching scared, so the Yankees skipped his sixth start to give him a reboot. It worked. Since being skipped, Vazquez has posted a 2.75 ERA in 11 starts and one key relief outing (striking out Kevin Youkilis with two on and two out in a two-run game, setting up a ninth-inning rally against Jonathan Papelbon). Since the calendar flipped to June, seven of Vazquez’s eight starts have been quality.

C

Phil Hughes: 11-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.14 K/BB, 9 QS (56%)

Taking off my analyst hat for a second, how freaking cool was it that Phil Hughes made the All-Star team? Given all of the expectations, hopes, the refusal to trade him for Johan Santana (which I agreed with), the injuries, the struggles, to watch him pitch in the All-Star game at age 24 was just incredibly satisfying, even if he did wind up taking the loss. Andy Pettitte made the All-Star team as a 24-year-old sophomore and went on to be one of the best starting pitchers in the history of the franchise. Hughes is not only finally on that path, but he could actually be better than Andy in the long run. It’s enough to make my heart skip a beat.

Okay, back to an objective look at Hughes’ first half. Hughes was awesome in his first six starts (5-0, 1.38 ERA, nearly no-hitting the A’s in his second start of the season, allowing one or no runs in four of those six outings). He was also hit-lucky, benefiting from a .223 opponent’s average on balls in play and allowing just one home run despite giving up his fair share of fly balls. Since then he has posted a 5.08 ERA in ten starts, only half of which have been quality. He’s continued to win thanks to strong run support and his ability to pitch more than six innings per start on average, but his performance in those last ten games has been more “real” as it has been accompanied by a .315 BABIP (high, but not off the charts like his early-season mark) and ten home runs in ten starts (including seven taters in his last five).

Given that this is really Hughes’ first full season in the major league rotation (his previous high was 13 starts and 72 2/3 innings in his rookie year of 2007; he’s already at 16 starts and 101 innings this year), I have no problem with how he’s been pitching. His peripherals are strong, he’s proving he can work out of jams, turn over a lineup, etc. etc., and that 11-2 record and strong start are keeping the heat off his less dominating performance of late. Everything’s going according to plan, including the Yankees’ skipping him occasionally to keep his innings down. As far as finally getting his career as a starter on track, his first half has been an A. In the context of the rotation and the league as a whole:

B

Relievers:

Mariano Rivera: 1.05 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 5.50 K/BB, 20 SV, 2.400 WXRL

The Greatest of All Time still dominating at age 40 despite a sore left side and a bad right knee. Fuggedaboudit.

A+

Joba Chamberlain: 5.79 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.86 K/BB, 0.141 WXRL

Oh yeah, it was totally worth sacrificing up Chamberlain’s potential as a starter for this. To be fair, Chamberlain’s been better than his ERA and WHIP. Those peripherals are solid, and despite some ugly outings, he has still been a net positive per his WXRL (which totals up his impact on the team’s win expectancy in each of his outings). Still, since mid-May he has posted an 8.71 ERA in 22 outings, losing three games and blowing a save in a fourth. It’s not that he’s actually been awful, but he’s been maddeningly inconsistent. Instead of a potential successor to Mo, Joba has looked like the second-coming of Kyle Farnsworth or the relief version of Burnett. I’m becoming convinced that the Yankees greatly overestimated Chamberlain’s mental and emotional maturity and with all of the role-changing he’s done, he’s been set adrift and is developing into a classic million-dollar arm/ten-cent head-type with results that don’t live up to his stuff.

Here’s the good news regarding Joba’s rocky last two months: Joba has been unlucky, as opponents have hit .420 on balls in play against him since mid-May. He’s not giving up the long ball, having allowed just one home run over that stretch and just two on the season. He’s still striking guys out (19 Ks in 20 2/3 innings), and 14 of those 22 outings have been scoreless. Curiously, his scoreless outings have been coming come in threes. Since June 1, he’s turned in three-straight scoreless outings four times, each time giving up runs in his next appearance. That might just be a coincidence, but if I were the Yankees, I’d be looking for any kind of clue that might help Chamberlain get back to his pre-rotation dominance. Actually, if I were the Yankees, I’d trade for a lock-down eighth-inning guy, send Joba down to Triple-A as a starter and tell him we’re very sorry and we’ll never put him in the bullpen again. Chances of that happening: less than zero.

C

David Robertson: 5.46 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.88 K/BB, 0.296 WXRL

Walks were Robertson’s bugaboo coming up through the minors, and they’ve been a large part of his problem thus far this year, but one can understand why he might be afraid to throw strikes given his .398 BABIP. The good news is that, in direct contrast to Chamberlain, Robertson has been more effective since mid-May, posting a 2.82 ERA and allowing runs in just three of 21 outings since May 8. His walk rate hasn’t been better during that span, and his BABIP hasn’t been much better either, but he’s getting the job done (not allowing a home run in those 22 1/3 inning has helped).

C

Damaso Marte: 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 1.09 K/BB, -0.495 WXRL

Those peripherals and WXRL tell a very different story that Marte’s roughly league-average ERA and solid WHIP. That’s because the LOOGY has allowed 27 percent of his 22 inherited runners to score. That’s just six runs, but it’s also just one less than Chamberlain and Robertson combined, and if you add those six runs in to Marte’s pitching line, his ERA leaps up to 7.13. Ouch. Marte seems to be getting the job done against lefties, who have hit .146/.200/.268 against him with 11 strikeouts in 45 plate appearances, but his BABIP on the season is .160, which suggests things could get real ugly in the second half. Are you convinced yet that the Yankees need to trade for a relief pitcher?

D+

Chan Ho Park: 6.18 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.14 K/BB, -0.209 WXRL

If you’re getting depressed, you might want to stop reading now. Park missed a month due to a strained hamstring and it was probably his best month as a Yankee. When healthy, he has allowed six home runs in 27 2/3 innings and stranded just two of his six inherited runners. His peripherals are solid, but that doesn’t seem to be helping.

D-

Alfredo Aceves: 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.50 K/BB, 0.528 WXRL

Aceves hit the DL with a herniated disk on May 8 and is desperately trying to avoid season-ending surgery. After a set-back during his July 5 bullpen session and a third epidural, he has no timetable for a return. How much has his absence hurt the Yankees? He’s still second on the team in WXRL.

Incomplete

Sergio Mitre: 2.88 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.67 K/BB, 0.146 WXRL

Entering his second season after Tommy John surgery, Mitre looked like a different pitcher in spring training and looked ready to step into Aceves’s utility stopper role until he pulled an oblique taking batting practice in preparation for the Yankees’ series at CitiField in mid-June. That was a devastatingly stupid injury. Fortunately, Mitre is close to returning, having already thrown nine rehab innings, including three for Triple-A Scranton Thursday night. Activating Mitre and calling up Jonathan Albaladejo (1.01 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 4.92 K/BB in 44 2/3 innings for Triple-A Scranton) could go a long way toward improving the Yankee pen in the second half.

Incomplete

Boone Logan: 3.93 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 1.08 K/BB, 0.033 WXRL

See those peripherals? Mix in the fact that lefties have hit .280 against him with a .400 on-base percentage. The Yankees have been lucky that Logan has been a net positive in his two stints and is now again safely tucked away at Triple-A. They best not tempt fate by giving Logan a third chance.

C

Chad Gaudin: 4.67 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.44 K/BB, -0.339 WXRL

As WXRL reveals, Gaudin has been worse than his traditional stats would suggest. Since being released by the A’s with an 8.83 ERA and re-signing with the Yankees, Gaudin has allowed runs in half of his ten appearances. He has pitched twice since June 21, and with starter Dustin Moseley now in the major league pen, I’d expect Gaudin to be dropped upon Mitre’s return.

D+

Other dudes:

The Yankees have gotten some  quality emergency relief work from their Triple-A starters this year. Moseley, Romulo Sanchez, and Ivan Nova have combined for this line in five appearances: 9 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, with the only run scoring on a solo homer off Moseley, the only hit he allowed in a three-inning appearance. The sample is small enough to be meaningless, but Nova’s contribution came in his first two major league appearances, and Sanchez has recently been moved into the Scranton pen, which could be a precursor to his return to the major league pen. Less encouraging were Mark Melancon’s last two unfairly short stints (one appearance each). Melancon avoided his 2009 bugaboos, walking and hitting no one, but gave up five runs (four earned) in four total innings, and back at Triple-A his struggles have continued (4.72 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 1.74 K/BB in 24 appearances since the end of April).

Bullpen:

The Yankee bullpen is 20th in the majors in WXRL and 19th in ERA (4.14) and 9th in the AL in both measures. That’s with Mariano Rivera. The contrast between Mo and the rest of the bullpen has been so stark that it seems unfair to lump Rivera in with the rest. Here, then, is a grade for everyone else.

D+

Rotation:

The only AL team with a better SNLVAR (the WXRL equivalent for starting pitchers) than the Yankees is the Mariners, and only the Padres and Cardinals have a better mark in the NL. Those teams and the Giants are the only clubs with better starters’ ERAs than the Yankees’ 3.68. The Yankees have needed just two spot starts all season (both by Sergio Mitre due to Pettitte’s elbow and Vazquez’s early struggles), and three of their starters deservedly made the All-Star team. Also worth noting, only the Phillies (largely due to Roy Halladay), and Mariners (due to Felix Hernandez and, until recently, Cliff Lee), have gotten more innings per start from their starters this year, which is why the Yankees D+ bullpen hasn’t been able to drag the team down in the first half.

A+