Comments on: Straight From the Sewer

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:57:48 +0000

[166] I suppose it all depends on what your definition of “two other prospects” is …

By: OldYanksFan

OldYanksFan — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:54:56 +0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5405807
The New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks were “never close” to a deal for Dan Haren on Friday, despite widespread reports that the Yankees had separated themselves from the other bidders for Haren, a source familiar with the discussions told ESPN.com.

The two teams did swap names Friday, the source said. But the Yankees rejected a Diamondbacks proposal that would have sent Joba Chamberlain, highly regarded pitching prospect Ivan Nova and two other prospects to Arizona for Haren.

The Yankees, instead, have proposed an entirely prospect-based deal, which Arizona rejected. Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall told reporters in Phoenix that other teams had made offers of “at least equal value” to what the Yankees proposed.

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:53:51 +0000

[164] Hahahahahaha!

That’s AWESOME!

By: thelarmis

thelarmis — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:47:48 +0000

[161] hilarious – i have NO idea what a “pc” or “mac” means. caveman drummer.

boom-bap, boom-boom-bap!!!

By: thelarmis

thelarmis — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:46:55 +0000

[161] oh, maybe mac is what i meant! i know *zero* about computers! i have a little dell laptop. windows 7. it’s new, this year. it’s a “studio” model. matches my “studio tan”!

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:45:59 +0000

On Mac it should be Option+4, try that.

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:44:55 +0000

Oh, you have a Mac?

By: thelarmis

thelarmis — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:42:06 +0000

[158] ooh, is that a bond reference? i’ve actually never seen a bond flick before…

[158] i’m guessing you need a pc for that, or something…

time to kill the sixer…!

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:35:11 +0000

[157] Hold *down* the alt … then hit 0162 and release … you should see ¢!

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:34:25 +0000

[157] Don’t make me Porzikova you!!!

By: thelarmis

thelarmis — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:30:33 +0000

[156] you must have some kind of james bond computer, or sumink! i gotta whole lotta nuthin’ with the alt key. now, carol alt… ; )

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 07:28:44 +0000

[142] sooo cool you can make the “cents” sign! alas, my laptop is limited…

Behold, I shall not give you a fish, I shall teach you to fish!!!

Hold down the ALT key … and then type 0162 on your number pad (make sure Num Lock is lit).

Good eatin’!

By: Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO

Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:47:28 +0000

[154] Ok, that makes sense. The K-rate aspect I can understand..but I’m still not sure on the whole luck thing..ah well, ya just can’t…

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:38:42 +0000

152) no, the fact that he had several successful season IS the reason that he was an outlier. Wang’s extended success defied historical precedents. Normally pitchers who do not strike out lots of guys do not have his level of pre-injury success. That makes him an outlier.

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:36:51 +0000

For example, this article from 2007, http://www.observer.com/2007/chien-ming-wang-occasional-ace

A few money quotes:

…hitters put so many balls into play against Wang that results depend, to an unusual extent, on luck…

Those who believe Wang is destined for greatness point to his ability to “throw ground balls” as the secret to his longevity. The problem with throwing ground balls, however, is that there is a nasty tendency for many of them to go between fielders and into the outfield…

Even Chien-Ming Wang is dependent on the strikeout for success. And this is not surprising—no pitcher has managed any sustained level of success with a strikeout rate as low as Wang’s career mark of 3.74 per nine innings.

Take a look at the stats—no matter how soft the tosses are, no matter how dastardly the slider—no pitcher has managed a sustained career of excellence striking out fewer than four and a half per nine innings…

But at age 27, it is as likely as not that his strikeout bump this season is statistical fluctuation, still leaving him at the mercy of opponents’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers with even better strikeout rates than Wang’s, this can be the true killer, and is dependent a bit upon team defense (far from a Yankee strength) and largely on luck.

By: Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO

Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:33:46 +0000

[151] He had 4 excellent seasons before getting injured though..isn’t that enough of a sample size to not be an “outlier”? And had he not gotten injured..I mean, he wasn’t flukey Carlos Silva first-half out there…

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:26:56 +0000

150) of course, CMW was always an outlier, right? He pitched to a lot of contact with relatively low K rates. The stat guys always warned that his success would be difficult to sustain.

By: Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO

Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:20:34 +0000

[149] Thinking back to our friend CMW, as soon as he could not get proper sink on his pitches, he got lit up..endless parade of long flys and homers..I don’t see where there is any “luck” there at all, just faulty pitching..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxodluTaz4g&feature=related

Some of you may recognize this one from the “Live in San Francisco: Paco de Lucia, Al Di Meola, John McLaughlin” album. Guitar heaven!

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:16:53 +0000

148) you got me how much a pitcher can control. The statheqds tend to assume that balls in play…not walks, homers or strike outs…are more or less out of the control of the pitcher. This merely pushes that thinking to include home runs as to some degree a ball in play.

I really don’t know how much, over the long haul, a pitcher can control what happens when a batter hits a fly ball.

By: Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO

Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:13:26 +0000

[145] But surely a pitcher can control where he delivers the pitch..for example, on the outside corner to a righty slugger, less likely to give up a Fenway cheapie homer…?

I don’t know, it’s too hot this afternoon to ponder further, time for more Paco!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oyhlad64-s&feature=related