But what we don’t know, can’t quantitively know now at least, is how the other players are affected, particularly in the infield. I think it’s a sure bet that they are affected though. And that is likely true of a line-up. Does A Rod batting behind Tex affect the pitches Tex sees? Of course. Does it affect Tex himself and how he approaches the at bat? I’d imagine so.

Hm, I thought I could explain this geometrically but it came out very convoluted, so I won’t bother.

Baseball-reference has started to list a Simple Rating System (SRS) with the league standings. SRS calculates how may runs per game better or worse than average a team is. The Yankees are currently +1.2, the Rays +1.4. The Orioles are -1.4. Let’s assume that these figures are more or less accurate and more or less predictive.

RLYW recently ran an article positing that using the team’s new additions to create an optimal lineup (Posada at C, Berkman at DH, etc) improved the team something like .5 runs per game over the typical lineup they ran out before the trade deadline (Cervelli at C, Posada at DH, etc.). Again, let’s just accept these figures as more or less accurate.

It seems to me that resting multiple starts on the same day might have a similar impact, something like .5 runs per game.

So (you see where I am going with this) doesn’t it make sense to rest multiple starters against the very worst teams when possible? In our example, that would mean that against the Orioles, the Yankees would go from being 2.6 runs per game better to something like 2.1 runs per game better. I suspect that over the course of the season series with the Orioles this would have less impact (i.e., it would “hurt” the Yankees less) than resting multiple starters against the better teams (for example, changing the Rays from .2 run favorites to .7 run favorites).

I imagine it has something to do with bell curves and standard deviations, but I’m not that much of a math guy, so I’ll turn it over to you.

Given this, however, all division games *could* be seen as more important than non-division games, simply because the a victory over a division rival is simultaneously a win for the team AND a loss (that is, not a win) for the division rival. Since to win the division a team must win more games than the other teams in the division, beating division rivals might be seen as going farther toward that goal. (THe wild card screws this up some, but let’s leave that aside.)

I suppose further that once the season is well-established, and it is clearly determined which teams are a more serious threat to win the division, a game against THEM is even more important. That is, even if the Yankees lose to Toronto tonight, there is still a chance that TB loses as well. But if the teams were playing head-to-head, a loss to TB would also guarantee that TB would have “gained” one additional victory over the yankees.

But yeah, in general you are correct, I do not really think that a win against one team is any more important than a win against another team.

If the games are merely harder, and not more important, then I don’t think it’s better to play your best team.

Thats when I say people should be careful what they wish for when they say how wonderful it would be to have a guy like Maddon managing the Yankees. Maddon is the perfect fit for a team like the Rays, huge talent in the rotation with talented but flawed players sprinkled throughout the field. His moves serve to squeeze every ounce of good baseball out of a flawed lineup.

You really can’t make those kinds of moves when you have a lineup with guys like Teixeira, Jeter, A-Rod, Cano (and their respective contracts). These things can end up doing more harm than good.

Please also remember that Casey may have misused Whitey in the fateful 1960 series.

No excuses for not putting the ball in play or throwing it accurately. Two hits. They be playing like the cubbies.

With that, I come to the conclusion that the biggest problem with the Yanks this year is indecision. They want to promote some of the kids, but because of arbitration issues, roster moves and production issues they won’t. They want to rest their older vets, but because of lack of production from the rest of the roster, they won’t. They want to make a deal to bring in better arms or bigger bats, but because of the asking price and the idea that they could be losing out in the long run, they won’t. ‘

The Yanks are certainly in a unique situation, largely of their own making. They’re the richest kid on the block, but nobody likes them. He wants to play with everyone else, but nobody trusts him to play fair, so they make special rules for him that handicap him from the start, not caring whether the rules themselves are fair or not. But because the kid has been a bully in the past, he has to deal with it. And because he has a chance to be a bully in the near future, no one will let him get involved in the game fully. If it were a basketball game, no one would pass to him. If it were a football game, they’d make him go long and pass to someone else. But since it’s a baseball game, he’s a LOOGY in the pen or the DH on an AL team in an NL park.

For what it’s worth, I think this team has only a couple of issues to overcome; a return to good form of at least two starters (CC and Andy) and a return to good form of Alex. Either one could minimize the use of the bullpen. But the damage has been done (Park, Joba, Vasquez, Alex again, Granderson and Jeter); August will determine once and for all whether this team has the goods or not to defend the championship, and to me the ship has taken on all the water it can handle; anything else happens and they’re goners.

Isn’t this sort of what Stengel supposedly did with some of his pitchers—tinkering with his rotation so that guys like Whitey Ford would face tougher teams, while his lesser starters faced the Cleveland Indians and Washington Senators?

But I’m prepared to be convinced otherwise.

Hughes keeping the ball in the park would should help, too.