Comments on: Pointing, Warning and Winning

By: jjmerlock

jjmerlock — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 23:28:52 +0000

Hmm… you’re right – I should have just looked at the season average velocities, and your numbers are, of course, correct. His straight fastball velocity is up from last year, but the overall trend is definitely less velocity on both the cutter and the plain old fastball.

I do think there may be something more there if you look closer – although it’s hard to say, as those charts not only show the full range of the data sets, but then you’re looking at both average velocities for individual outings, as well as velocity ranges for those outings. So, for me, at least, it’s hard to know what exactly to make of the actual graphs just by eyeballing them. I know that one thing the charts remind you of is that he’s had two outings this year where the fastball was right around 95 – and in one of those outings, the cutter was almost at 95, as well. I think I’m still shocked by those readings.

What I’m saying in a very convoluted way is that I can’t tell from those graphs (just having averages and ranges shown together) is if the overall variance is markedly higher this year than last year and if he isn’t hitting higher numbers more often this year, even if a summarizing stat like average doesn’t show that. Is there a way to see something like “how many pitches has he thrown above 93 in year x,” etc?

I’m sure you’re right in your overall point; I’m just noting that averages – in any statistical analysis – only say so much.

By: Jon DeRosa

Jon DeRosa — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 15:46:30 +0000

[3] Fangraphs has his avg cutter at 92.6 in ’08, 91.3 in ’09, and 91.1 in ’10. So I’d say there is a distinct difference starting in 2009.

I also think it’s safe to say that there was a time when it was much higher than 2008, though I don’t know his exact averages or the exact time period.

By: jjmerlock

jjmerlock — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 15:23:08 +0000

[2] Looking at fangraphs, their charts seem to suggest that his cutter velocity is slightly up from last year, but the pitches they record as basic fastballs (no cutter, no two seam) clearly clock in at higher velocity readings. Which seems pretty wild.

By: jjmerlock

jjmerlock — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 15:07:50 +0000

Are you sure about Mo’s velocity? Have we just been seeing readings from misleading TV guns?

Because this year, he’s suddenly at 93, 94 in certain games, at least according to the telecasts. And among the endless list of things that is astounding about Mo, if those numbers are correct, the increase this year in velocity would be yet another thing to be amazed by.

By: Eddie Lee Whitson KO

Eddie Lee Whitson KO — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 04:31:43 +0000

[0] nice re-cap, weird game. wonder if the hijinks spill over into tomorrow, I hope Mr. Hughes can just make it a day at the office, no drama, 7IP. I’d like to see capn get a breather too, find his smile and all that. Great to see Granderson hit the ball.

And the Rays swept the Rangers – I didn’t expect that.