Comments on: The Other Guys http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/ Development site for Bronx Banter Blog's upcoming look and feel Thu, 20 Jun 2013 02:42:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: RIYank http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142302 RIYank Wed, 06 Oct 2010 22:56:18 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142302 [26] If a pitcher <i>always</i> has a low BABIP, then yeah, we know it's not luck. Also, Chien-Ming Wang, remember? You expect the Reds to win both games <i>who</i> starts? Oh, I get it -- they'll beat Oswalt twice. They're going to have to win 3 out of 4, looks like, because they're not going to win Game One. [26] If a pitcher always has a low BABIP, then yeah, we know it’s not luck. Also, Chien-Ming Wang, remember?

You expect the Reds to win both games who starts? Oh, I get it — they’ll beat Oswalt twice.
They’re going to have to win 3 out of 4, looks like, because they’re not going to win Game One.

]]> By: williamnyy23 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142301 williamnyy23 Wed, 06 Oct 2010 22:20:43 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142301 In principal, BABIP is an indicator of luck, but when broken down individually, you find that it really isn't. That's why I am never comfortable using it as an indicator, unless one year's figures are completely out of line with a larger body of work. For example, Mo always has a low BABIP, but we know that is far from luck. [24] I actually think the Reds win this in five. The Cincy lineup is pretty potent and matches up particularly well against Oswalt. I expect the Reds to win both games he starts. The question will be stealing one more. Because the Phillies hitters dont match up well with the Reds starters, I think at least one of those other games will be close enough for the Reds to steal. In principal, BABIP is an indicator of luck, but when broken down individually, you find that it really isn’t. That’s why I am never comfortable using it as an indicator, unless one year’s figures are completely out of line with a larger body of work. For example, Mo always has a low BABIP, but we know that is far from luck.

[24] I actually think the Reds win this in five. The Cincy lineup is pretty potent and matches up particularly well against Oswalt. I expect the Reds to win both games he starts. The question will be stealing one more. Because the Phillies hitters dont match up well with the Reds starters, I think at least one of those other games will be close enough for the Reds to steal.

]]> By: RIYank http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142300 RIYank Wed, 06 Oct 2010 22:05:42 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142300 [23] Look, I didn't make this up. BABIP for a pitcher one season does not predict BABIP for the same pitcher the next season. Over the long haul, variation is indistinguishable from random noise. That's in general. I'm sure there are some exceptions. [23] Look, I didn’t make this up. BABIP for a pitcher one season does not predict BABIP for the same pitcher the next season. Over the long haul, variation is indistinguishable from random noise.
That’s in general. I’m sure there are some exceptions.

]]> By: OldYanksFan http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142299 OldYanksFan Wed, 06 Oct 2010 21:29:59 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142299 Here is a comment from a poster on RAB: Rey22 says: Anyone else feeling a Phillies sweep? Their top 3 is just unfair. My reply: OldYanksFan says: Absolutely…. and they got some serious offense to boot. I don’t think we stand a chance against that Pitching. The Phillies Win the whole shebang pretty easily. Here is a comment from a poster on RAB:
Rey22 says:
Anyone else feeling a Phillies sweep? Their top 3 is just unfair.

My reply:
OldYanksFan says:
Absolutely…. and they got some serious offense to boot.
I don’t think we stand a chance against that Pitching.
The Phillies Win the whole shebang pretty easily.

]]> By: OldYanksFan http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142298 OldYanksFan Wed, 06 Oct 2010 21:28:31 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142298 [23] I'm not sure about Mo's BABIP (or is it FIP?... or DIPS?), but we know when he's on, no one can square up the ball, and most of the hits he gives up are cheapies. They track LD/FB/GB data, but not how hard a ball is hit... like poorly, average and hard. We all know a hard hit 2 bouncer GB will find more holes then a 6 hopper of chopped ball. A smoked FB has a better chance of avoiding leather then a lazy fly. I personally look a BABIP for batters, but don't put much stock in it. There is obviously some random luck over the course of a year.... but if a player has a low BABIP, it must have something to do will have well he is squaring up the ball. [23] I’m not sure about Mo’s BABIP (or is it FIP?… or DIPS?), but we know when he’s on, no one can square up the ball, and most of the hits he gives up are cheapies.

They track LD/FB/GB data, but not how hard a ball is hit… like poorly, average and hard. We all know a hard hit 2 bouncer GB will find more holes then a 6 hopper of chopped ball. A smoked FB has a better chance of avoiding leather then a lazy fly.

I personally look a BABIP for batters, but don’t put much stock in it. There is obviously some random luck over the course of a year…. but if a player has a low BABIP, it must have something to do will have well he is squaring up the ball.

]]> By: RIYank http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142297 RIYank Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:55:06 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142297 [21] Yeah, I don't see an easy way to check that. But you're right, BABIP is not all luck for a batter. SABRmetric wisdom is that it's all luck for a pitcher. [21] Yeah, I don’t see an easy way to check that. But you’re right, BABIP is not all luck for a batter. SABRmetric wisdom is that it’s all luck for a pitcher.

]]> By: OldYanksFan http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142296 OldYanksFan Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:49:55 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142296 Is BABIP really all luck... or how well and hard you hit the ball? I think that's part of it. Did Cano's Linedrive % go down the 2nd half? Is BABIP really all luck… or how well and hard you hit the ball? I think that’s part of it. Did Cano’s Linedrive % go down the 2nd half?

]]> By: RIYank http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142295 RIYank Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:46:41 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142295 [19] Might be largely luck: his BABIP was .342 in the first half, .306 in the second half. [19] Might be largely luck: his BABIP was .342 in the first half, .306 in the second half.

]]> By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142294 The Hawk Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:42:30 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142294 Considering where it once was, it's a little chocking Cano's average ended up (nominally) lower than last year. Considering where it once was, it’s a little chocking Cano’s average ended up (nominally) lower than last year.

]]> By: The Hawk http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142293 The Hawk Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:40:27 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142293 Really bad job by Price. That makes me more nervous about CC for some reason. Really bad job by Price. That makes me more nervous about CC for some reason.

]]> By: RIYank http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142292 RIYank Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:39:52 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142292 Wow. Feliz is not good with pressure. Even the pressure of a 4-run lead! Wow. Feliz is not good with pressure. Even the pressure of a 4-run lead!

]]> By: seamus http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142291 seamus Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:33:33 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142291 [15] but are they going to pay back arod? lol [15] but are they going to pay back arod? lol

]]> By: RIYank http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142290 RIYank Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:26:16 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142290 [14] Yeah, although <a href="http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2010/09/texas-rangers-to-receive-3-billion-in-new-20-year-tv-deal/1" rel="nofollow">the Rangers are going to have spending money.</a> [14] Yeah, although the Rangers are going to have spending money.

]]> By: Jon DeRosa http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142289 Jon DeRosa Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:19:31 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142289 I didn't need anymore convincing about breaking the bank for Cliff Lee this winter, but this was a nice reminder. Hopefully, he is pricing himself out of Texas, even with their new ownership willing to spend. I didn’t need anymore convincing about breaking the bank for Cliff Lee this winter, but this was a nice reminder. Hopefully, he is pricing himself out of Texas, even with their new ownership willing to spend.

]]> By: RIYank http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142288 RIYank Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:16:58 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142288 [12] Nope. [12] Nope.

]]> By: seamus http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142287 seamus Wed, 06 Oct 2010 20:10:15 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142287 Lee might have one more inning. I bet he starts the 8th but doesn't finish it if he throws a lot of pitches. Lee might have one more inning. I bet he starts the 8th but doesn’t finish it if he throws a lot of pitches.

]]> By: seamus http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142286 seamus Wed, 06 Oct 2010 19:50:37 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142286 i don't care who wins tb-tex series. i'm more concerned with the twins. i don’t care who wins tb-tex series. i’m more concerned with the twins.

]]> By: Chyll Will http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142285 Chyll Will Wed, 06 Oct 2010 19:39:31 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142285 [6] I'm with you, dude. We're not going to avoid Cliff Lee at all; he'll be pitching against us now or for us next year. [6] I’m with you, dude. We’re not going to avoid Cliff Lee at all; he’ll be pitching against us now or for us next year.

]]> By: seamus http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142284 seamus Wed, 06 Oct 2010 19:27:17 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142284 [7][8] self-referential patterns developing! [7][8] self-referential patterns developing!

]]> By: seamus http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/10/06/the-other-guys/#comment-142283 seamus Wed, 06 Oct 2010 19:26:56 +0000 http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=42430#comment-142283 [8] game 1 certainly looking good for the rangers so far. Lee has thrown 71 pitches through 5 so he looks poised to go 7 or 8 at least. [8] game 1 certainly looking good for the rangers so far. Lee has thrown 71 pitches through 5 so he looks poised to go 7 or 8 at least.

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