Comments on: Cliff Notes

By: Bruce Markusen

Bruce Markusen — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 04:17:08 +0000

Whenever I hear the words “mystery team,” I immediately think that’sw bogus. I find it hard to believe that any teams have made Lee a seven-year offer.

Maybe the mystery team is in the Japanese Leagues.

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 02:43:38 +0000

13) or even “going forward.”

By: monkeypants

monkeypants — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 02:43:07 +0000

I sure hope Lee carries them to the promised land next season, because I’ve got a real bad feelng about Lee foing forward.

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 01:52:51 +0000

[10] Until recently, 12% was the approximate historical CAGR of the S&P 500, so that’s what stuck in my mind. Coming out of a recession, one might expect an even greater CAGR, but there are no guarantees. Jumbo CDs might be a tick above 3% now, so I guess you could use that as a baseline. Of course, investment doesn’t have to mean a financial security, but instead the Yankees’ expected ROI for any use of cashflow.

As for inflation/deflation, I am not sure that really applies here because the the main cost of doing business for a baseball team are players salaries, and those usually don’t track the typical indicators.

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 00:59:17 +0000

From Chad Jennings, Brian Cashman's answer to a question about Cliff Lee:

“I may have made an official offer,” he said. “I’m just deciding not to admit whether I have or haven’t. For some reason.” Exactly 20 seconds went by. “Yeah, we’ve made an offer,” Cashman said. “You guys have worn me out.”

By: Yankster

Yankster — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 23:35:09 +0000

[6] How did you decide on 12% on your present value calculation. When I’ve done the same thing on this site I’ve used 3% and I’d argue that over the next seven years (based on the spread between long treasuries and TIPS) that the rate should be closer to 2%. Which changes the calculation quite a lot. Glad you brought it up. I’ve been wondering if the current near deflation environment would change long-term contracts, but it doesn’t seem to have had any impact at all.

By: Emma Span

Emma Span — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 23:11:46 +0000

[7] Ha! I may need to borrow the line “a Molina will kill you in your sleep.” You know, for next October…

By: Sliced Bread

Sliced Bread — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:53:19 +0000

[6] very interesting point. I’ll check out your post.

By: Sliced Bread

Sliced Bread — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:52:24 +0000

[5] you’ve been on a roll since your “a Molina will kill you in your sleep this October” prediction. I know the Frenchy et les Royales thing was more of a wish than a prediction, but just the same.

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:51:24 +0000

[4] As the contract gets longer though, you can give more real dollars and not increase the present value. In fact, I put together a little post about just that Basically, Yanks can offer $150 for six or $165 for seven and it works out close to the same in present value.

By: Emma Span

Emma Span — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:38:26 +0000

Incidentally, Francoeur-to-the-Royals was on my Hot Stove Wish List from a month ago. Cross one off…!

http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2010/11/12/hot-stove-wish-list/

By: Sliced Bread

Sliced Bread — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:25:54 +0000

[3] I’d go those extra dollars per year, but really 6 year is enough, agreed?

[2] yeah, hopefully Andy won’t retire – but if he’s going to, let’s hope he waits until the Lee deal is done. If he wanted to do the Yankees a favor, he could suggest now that he’s leaning towards coming back. That could help the Yanks a little in the Lee negotiations. Maybe keep a little change in the ash tray for bullpen help, etc.

By: williamnyy23

williamnyy23 — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:03:44 +0000

[1] I doubt six years at $20 million gets it done. More like $23-25 million per year seems likely.

By: Emma Span

Emma Span — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 22:03:25 +0000

[1] Heh.

Yeah, I do love watching Lee play (still get a warm fuzzy feeling when I think of that lackadaisical behind-the-back catch he made in the ’09 Series, with the little shrug after). So it’s not like I’d be upset if they got him. But… 7 years? Yipes.

Then again if Andy Pettitte really is going to retire (and I’ll believe that when I see it), I shudder to think.

By: Sliced Bread

Sliced Bread — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 21:05:32 +0000

For now, I’m firmly entrenched in “Camp GetCliffLeeNow,ToHellWith2011Payroll&2015Roster Construction.”
It’s becoming a cold and lonely place to spend the winter, and this talk of 7 year contracts has me thinking about breaking camp and moving back indoors where the rest of you are warming yourselves by throwing 4 and 5 year contracts on the fire.

I’d do 6 years, $20 mill tops. This team is built to win now, with a rapidly aging core. Cliff Lee gives the team the best chance of winning championships the next 2-3 years. That’s why I’d go the extra miles to get him now.

Plus, I’m a total sucker for lefty ace types. I promise I won’t ask for another one next year.