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	<title>Comments on: Just Joshing Us</title>
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		<title>By: flycaster</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74031</link>
		<dc:creator>flycaster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 15:48:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74031</guid>
		<description>[13] I&#039;ll try this again, though I never seem to get anywhere.  Whether there&#039;s an off day tomorrow is not the only factor a manager has to think about.  There&#039;s also how do I keep this guy from having 100 appearances by September 15th?  Because that&#039;s what will happen if you bring him in every time you&#039;d like to.  It&#039;s the problem that obviates the &quot;use your best guy in high leverage situations rather than the 9th inning&quot; idea.  There are too many high leverage situations.
Down by 3, I&#039;m not going to waste Soriano.  Down by one, maybe...Anyway, like to see some hits Tuesday night.  By us, I mean.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[13] I&#8217;ll try this again, though I never seem to get anywhere.  Whether there&#8217;s an off day tomorrow is not the only factor a manager has to think about.  There&#8217;s also how do I keep this guy from having 100 appearances by September 15th?  Because that&#8217;s what will happen if you bring him in every time you&#8217;d like to.  It&#8217;s the problem that obviates the &#8220;use your best guy in high leverage situations rather than the 9th inning&#8221; idea.  There are too many high leverage situations.<br />
Down by 3, I&#8217;m not going to waste Soriano.  Down by one, maybe&#8230;Anyway, like to see some hits Tuesday night.  By us, I mean.</p>
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		<title>By: monkeypants</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74030</link>
		<dc:creator>monkeypants</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 14:53:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74030</guid>
		<description>[10] And yes, even down 3 in the eighth, I might have been willing to use Soriano or even Mo since the next day was an off day, rather than Garcia. I&#039;m not sure how much an inning of work helps the #5 starter...and it may be more valuable to give your good relievers regular work. After all, Soriano and Mo had not pitched since April 7, so now it will be at least five days until they get into a game.  Why not get at least one of them an inning before an of fday?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[10] And yes, even down 3 in the eighth, I might have been willing to use Soriano or even Mo since the next day was an off day, rather than Garcia. I&#8217;m not sure how much an inning of work helps the #5 starter&#8230;and it may be more valuable to give your good relievers regular work. After all, Soriano and Mo had not pitched since April 7, so now it will be at least five days until they get into a game.  Why not get at least one of them an inning before an of fday?</p>
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		<title>By: monkeypants</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74029</link>
		<dc:creator>monkeypants</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 14:47:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74029</guid>
		<description>[10] I meant more generally---that with the Sox up 1-0, the imaginary sabermetric manager would have gone to his best relievers (SorMariano) and hopefully Logan and Garcia never enter the game.

On the other hand, I guess Joba is the third best reliever---after all, he is the 7th inning guy---so Girardi can&#039;t be too faulted with using him in the sixth and seventh even if in this case he failed.  Maybe Joba should be moved to the all important Sixth Inning Guy role, and Robertson promoted to Seventh Inning Guy?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[10] I meant more generally&#8212;that with the Sox up 1-0, the imaginary sabermetric manager would have gone to his best relievers (SorMariano) and hopefully Logan and Garcia never enter the game.</p>
<p>On the other hand, I guess Joba is the third best reliever&#8212;after all, he is the 7th inning guy&#8212;so Girardi can&#8217;t be too faulted with using him in the sixth and seventh even if in this case he failed.  Maybe Joba should be moved to the all important Sixth Inning Guy role, and Robertson promoted to Seventh Inning Guy?</p>
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		<title>By: rbj</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74028</link>
		<dc:creator>rbj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 14:41:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74028</guid>
		<description>[6] From what I&#039;ve heard, he&#039;s pitching Friday, but that could be wrong.

As for why he hasn&#039;t been used before, that&#039;s a different issue. The fact is, as of last night he hadn&#039;t pitched, the Yankees were down 3 against a very good team. If your #5 stater hasn&#039;t seen work yet, it&#039;s not a bad decision to get him an inning in. Beckett was totally on last night, and Paps, as much as I hate him, is a very good closer. Yankees chance last night was less than 2%.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[6] From what I&#8217;ve heard, he&#8217;s pitching Friday, but that could be wrong.</p>
<p>As for why he hasn&#8217;t been used before, that&#8217;s a different issue. The fact is, as of last night he hadn&#8217;t pitched, the Yankees were down 3 against a very good team. If your #5 stater hasn&#8217;t seen work yet, it&#8217;s not a bad decision to get him an inning in. Beckett was totally on last night, and Paps, as much as I hate him, is a very good closer. Yankees chance last night was less than 2%.</p>
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		<title>By: RIYank</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74027</link>
		<dc:creator>RIYank</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 14:25:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74027</guid>
		<description>[8] [9] It&#039;s a good point -- probably a lot of managers &lt;i&gt;do&lt;/i&gt; treat that situation as &#039;unwinnable&#039;. If so, then part of what makes the Win Expectancy so low is that the trailing manager doesn&#039;t go to his best relievers. (The probabilities are calculated from actual historical data.)

Still, it&#039;s got to be a very low Win Expectancy even if the trailing team puts everything on the line. So, even if Girardi made a mistake there, it couldn&#039;t have been a big mistake, from the point of view of gaining expected wins.

Monkeypants, the situation was worse than you stated, since the moment in question was the bottom of the 8th. I see, maybe you were thinking, &quot;Even if Soriano pitches and we shut them down, it&#039;s still a very long shot.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[8] [9] It&#8217;s a good point &#8212; probably a lot of managers <i>do</i> treat that situation as &#8216;unwinnable&#8217;. If so, then part of what makes the Win Expectancy so low is that the trailing manager doesn&#8217;t go to his best relievers. (The probabilities are calculated from actual historical data.)</p>
<p>Still, it&#8217;s got to be a very low Win Expectancy even if the trailing team puts everything on the line. So, even if Girardi made a mistake there, it couldn&#8217;t have been a big mistake, from the point of view of gaining expected wins.</p>
<p>Monkeypants, the situation was worse than you stated, since the moment in question was the bottom of the 8th. I see, maybe you were thinking, &#8220;Even if Soriano pitches and we shut them down, it&#8217;s still a very long shot.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: The Hawk</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74026</link>
		<dc:creator>The Hawk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 14:13:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74026</guid>
		<description>[8] I really don&#039;t believe in treating three run leads as insurmountable. I wonder what that win expectancy would be if every manager in that situation started treating it as if the game was over. Darn close to 0, I&#039;d imagine.

May as well try and keep it close, crazier things have happened than a team scoring three runs in the 9th inning. But again, it&#039;s more a question to me of why use Garcia in particular there. On the one hand yes you have a day off tomorrow, why not use Soriano or whomever, but I&#039;m more suspicious of the use of Garcia.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[8] I really don&#8217;t believe in treating three run leads as insurmountable. I wonder what that win expectancy would be if every manager in that situation started treating it as if the game was over. Darn close to 0, I&#8217;d imagine.</p>
<p>May as well try and keep it close, crazier things have happened than a team scoring three runs in the 9th inning. But again, it&#8217;s more a question to me of why use Garcia in particular there. On the one hand yes you have a day off tomorrow, why not use Soriano or whomever, but I&#8217;m more suspicious of the use of Garcia.</p>
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		<title>By: monkeypants</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74025</link>
		<dc:creator>monkeypants</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 14:02:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74025</guid>
		<description>[3] OK, according to this win expectancy calculator (http://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.php?team=V&amp;inning=9&amp;outs=0&amp;runners=1&amp;scorediff=-3), in over 7000 games the visiting team entered the 9th down three runs and won about 2% of them.

So the game was probably pretty much lost at this point.

Now of course, if the Yankees could have held the Sox lead to one run, their chances go up (but only to about 13%), which is why some argue that you should often (not always) use your best reliever earlier in a close game to keep it close, rather than save him for the ninth inning lead that may never come.  But that&#039;s a dead horse for another day!!  ; )</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[3] OK, according to this win expectancy calculator (<a href="http://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.php?team=V&#038;inning=9&#038;outs=0&#038;runners=1&#038;scorediff=-3" rel="nofollow">http://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.php?team=V&#038;inning=9&#038;outs=0&#038;runners=1&#038;scorediff=-3</a>), in over 7000 games the visiting team entered the 9th down three runs and won about 2% of them.</p>
<p>So the game was probably pretty much lost at this point.</p>
<p>Now of course, if the Yankees could have held the Sox lead to one run, their chances go up (but only to about 13%), which is why some argue that you should often (not always) use your best reliever earlier in a close game to keep it close, rather than save him for the ninth inning lead that may never come.  But that&#8217;s a dead horse for another day!!  ; )</p>
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		<title>By: The Hawk</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74024</link>
		<dc:creator>The Hawk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 13:59:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74024</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s not just using the opportunity as if it was garbage time, it&#039;s putting Garcia in there in particular. It strikes me as an odd time to have him pitch for &lt;i&gt;him&lt;/i&gt;, when they&#039;re losing and all he can do is make things worse - for two innings, no less.

And yeah, the situation only arises because ten or so games into the season he hasn&#039;t pitched yet. It seems like poor planning all around.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not just using the opportunity as if it was garbage time, it&#8217;s putting Garcia in there in particular. It strikes me as an odd time to have him pitch for <i>him</i>, when they&#8217;re losing and all he can do is make things worse &#8211; for two innings, no less.</p>
<p>And yeah, the situation only arises because ten or so games into the season he hasn&#8217;t pitched yet. It seems like poor planning all around.</p>
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		<title>By: monkeypants</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74023</link>
		<dc:creator>monkeypants</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 13:55:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74023</guid>
		<description>[4] Is Garcia starting on Friday, or are they using the off day tomorrow to skip his spot and use CC on Friday on regular rest?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[4] Is Garcia starting on Friday, or are they using the off day tomorrow to skip his spot and use CC on Friday on regular rest?</p>
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		<title>By: monkeypants</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74022</link>
		<dc:creator>monkeypants</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 13:53:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74022</guid>
		<description>[3][4] Actually, Girardi is probably correct inasmuch as the win expectancy for a team down 3 going into the top of the ninth has got to be under 10% (maybe RIYank can find teh exact number)?

This being said, with an off day following Girardi could have thrown out the WE chart in his binder and gone with a better reliever. Also, why is it that Garcia had yet to get any work yet this season?  He pitched Soriano with a four run lead but couldn&#039;t find room here our there to get some work out of his long man somewhere.

But then this leads to my larger critique of current baseball praxis: why do teams carry so many pitchers when it is obvious that #12 and #13, if not more, are useless.  That a manager needs to &quot;find&quot; work for the last arm in his BP is evidence enough that the team is carrying one too many pitchers.

Once the Twins games was rained out the schedule affords the Yankees the luxury not to carry a #5 starter.  So cut the staff to 11 men (send down or release someone useless like Ayala if they need to protect Garcia) until the end of April when the &quot;need&quot; for that extra pitcher is more pressing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[3][4] Actually, Girardi is probably correct inasmuch as the win expectancy for a team down 3 going into the top of the ninth has got to be under 10% (maybe RIYank can find teh exact number)?</p>
<p>This being said, with an off day following Girardi could have thrown out the WE chart in his binder and gone with a better reliever. Also, why is it that Garcia had yet to get any work yet this season?  He pitched Soriano with a four run lead but couldn&#8217;t find room here our there to get some work out of his long man somewhere.</p>
<p>But then this leads to my larger critique of current baseball praxis: why do teams carry so many pitchers when it is obvious that #12 and #13, if not more, are useless.  That a manager needs to &#8220;find&#8221; work for the last arm in his BP is evidence enough that the team is carrying one too many pitchers.</p>
<p>Once the Twins games was rained out the schedule affords the Yankees the luxury not to carry a #5 starter.  So cut the staff to 11 men (send down or release someone useless like Ayala if they need to protect Garcia) until the end of April when the &#8220;need&#8221; for that extra pitcher is more pressing.</p>
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		<title>By: rbj</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74021</link>
		<dc:creator>rbj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 13:42:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74021</guid>
		<description>&quot;With a three-run differential, the game was still winnable in the Yankees’ last at-bat.&quot;

I had the feeling at that point the game was lost. Not going to fault Joe for putting Freddy in at that point. He&#039;s going to be starting on Friday and there certainly can be a Garcia vs. Mitre debate, but once the decision has been made, you get the guy ready to pitch.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;With a three-run differential, the game was still winnable in the Yankees’ last at-bat.&#8221;</p>
<p>I had the feeling at that point the game was lost. Not going to fault Joe for putting Freddy in at that point. He&#8217;s going to be starting on Friday and there certainly can be a Garcia vs. Mitre debate, but once the decision has been made, you get the guy ready to pitch.</p>
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		<title>By: The Hawk</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74020</link>
		<dc:creator>The Hawk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:13:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74020</guid>
		<description>The one thing that really bothered me about this game - aside from Beckett barf-o-rama of course - was the Garcia move. I know I&#039;ve heard Girardi refer to gut decisions, but his gut is stupid if it told him to put Garcia in. No actually I&#039;m pretty certain this was one of those think-too-much ideas ... Why on earth he&#039;s worried about getting a pitcher work at the end of a winnable game vs a divisional opponent is beyond me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The one thing that really bothered me about this game &#8211; aside from Beckett barf-o-rama of course &#8211; was the Garcia move. I know I&#8217;ve heard Girardi refer to gut decisions, but his gut is stupid if it told him to put Garcia in. No actually I&#8217;m pretty certain this was one of those think-too-much ideas &#8230; Why on earth he&#8217;s worried about getting a pitcher work at the end of a winnable game vs a divisional opponent is beyond me.</p>
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		<title>By: Boatzilla</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74019</link>
		<dc:creator>Boatzilla</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 10:30:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74019</guid>
		<description>So much for having Beckett&#039;s number (past 2 years). Trouble brewing: If Posada doesn&#039;t hit, there&#039;s no place for him on the team. Mind you, I&#039;m sure he will hit, but, just sayin&#039;...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So much for having Beckett&#8217;s number (past 2 years). Trouble brewing: If Posada doesn&#8217;t hit, there&#8217;s no place for him on the team. Mind you, I&#8217;m sure he will hit, but, just sayin&#8217;&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Mattpat11</title>
		<link>http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2011/04/11/just-joshing-us/#comment-74018</link>
		<dc:creator>Mattpat11</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 04:26:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/?p=52497#comment-74018</guid>
		<description>Yankees also hit Buchholz pretty well. And knocked around John Lackey, for whatever thats worth in 2011.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yankees also hit Buchholz pretty well. And knocked around John Lackey, for whatever thats worth in 2011.</p>
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