Comments on: Number One Chief Rocka

By: Bama Yankee

Bama Yankee — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 03:29:58 +0000

[137] Thanks! I usually drop by daily to read the blog, but I just don’t post as much as I used to. Maybe I’ll start dropping by the game threads again, they seem a little more tame these days than the way I remember them back in the day…

By: weeping for brunnhilde

weeping for brunnhilde — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 03:22:09 +0000

[136] It is good to see you, Bama!

By: Bama Yankee

Bama Yankee — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 03:17:55 +0000

Hey RIYank, if you are still around. Someone else posted over in the other thread with a good question about that Win Expectancy stat. I had been wanting to ask you the same question: Don’t the Win Expectancy numbers include BOTH the bunt case and the non-bunt case? Shouldn’t you look at the Win Expectancy percentage of the bunt scenario WITHOUT those cases when the team didn’t bunt?

By: Bama Yankee

Bama Yankee — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 03:00:58 +0000

[134] Thanks for the clarification. What I should have said was “before I decided to not go with the bunt in that situation”. I will check that link out. I’m sure I’ll have a few more questions for you after I do. Thanks for the interesting discussion. I don’t post as much around these parts as I used to…I need to start dropping by more often. I miss this place…

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:43:42 +0000

[133] Just one correction: I didn't say totally dismiss the bunt! I said it's a wash. The chance of winning the game is pretty nearly equal for the two situations. So it will come down to things like, how hot is/was Jeter? How likely was he to actually reach base on the bunt? How likely was he to screw up the bunt so the runners didn't get to advance? Etc. Sure, here's a link to a very nice gadget, the Win Expectancy Finder. It's fun to play around with.

By: Bama Yankee

Bama Yankee — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:35:49 +0000

[129] Gotcha. Thanks for the explanation. I realize that it would be cumbersome, but I would still like to see those numbers (assuming we could get a large enough sample) before I totally dismiss the bunt in that situation.

Back to the Win Expectancy. Do you have a link to that data? I’ve seen some of it in the past but nothing that goes back as far as you mentioned. I would like to read more about it.

By: Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO

Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:24:03 +0000

Wretched loss. R.So had been pitching so well recently..
And Sox crushed the Rangers..sigh..

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:21:34 +0000

Oh well.

Hey, there’s Mattpat. Just in time for the loss.

By: weeping for brunnhilde

weeping for brunnhilde — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:21:26 +0000

Horseshit.

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:20:41 +0000

[121] Ah, well, now that this game doesn’t deserve my attention…

The Win Expectancy data I was using goes back to 1957, and it uses all games, all situations. You really need as much as possible to iron out sample size glitches. It’s not really relevant whether the teams in the data base used a lot of bunting, because what I was looking at was the contrast between the two situations, the one before a successful bunt and the other after. In other words, the bunt itself didn’t have to be included in the data because it was just the difference between the situations I compared.

Besides the probabilities you mentioned, we’d need the prob. of Jeter getting a double, homer… other significant events. It’s cumbersome. So for this reason, it’s wiser to rely on the big, general Win Expectancy data, and then try to adjust for whatever is special to the situation. (Jeter’s avg., bunting ability, third basemen’s fielding ability, etc.)

By: Mattpat11

Mattpat11 — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:19:40 +0000

Nice hustle Robbie

By: Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO

Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:14:57 +0000

Coco Crisp..

By: Marek

Marek — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:13:44 +0000

booooo

By: Alex Belth

Alex Belth — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:13:19 +0000

You have got to be fucking kidding me.

By: Mattpat11

Mattpat11 — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:13:04 +0000

Losing two games to Oakland is completely unacceptable.

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:13:02 +0000

Yeah.
That’s why I would have let D-Rob pitch the ninth.

By: weeping for brunnhilde

weeping for brunnhilde — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:12:54 +0000

Goddamn it.

I’m so fucking pissed off now.

By: Bama Yankee

Bama Yankee — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:06:51 +0000

Hey RIYank, thanks for discussing that bunt issue with me in the other thread. If you get a chance, I’ve posted another question about it for you over there. Thanks.

By: cult of basebaal

cult of basebaal — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:04:58 +0000

Eek, that was an inning of nasty.

Alright folks, gotta run, so I’ll leave the game in your capable hands!

Go Yanks!

By: RIYank

RIYank — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 02:04:13 +0000

Dang.
I bet he pitches the tenth, too, that sunovabitch.