Comments on: Color By Numbers: To Homer, Or Not To Homer? Should That Be the Question?

By: William Juliano

William Juliano — Fri, 18 May 2012 13:04:38 +0000

[5] The “too many HRs argument” can be based on two premises. The first is the assumption that the hitters are changing their approach (i.e., “trying”)to go deep, which I think is doubtful. Most Yankees’ hitters hit home runs, so they don’t need to “muscle up”. Considering how naturally HRs come to them, I am not sure why they would try something different. Besides, if such an approach was conducive to hitting homers, why wouldn’t they do it all the time?

The second premise is that the hitters should be changing their approach by dialing back on their swings (going the other way, moving runners, etc.), but that contradicts their normal effectiveness.

The bottom line for me is the Yankees have a HR hitting team and shouldn’t do anything to change their normal approach, except in rare instances. It’s all well and good to play small ball, but what the first graph shows is that when the Yankees hit a HR they win a high percentage of their games. And, when they don’t give any up, they win even more. What that tells me is teams’ main focus should be maximizing their HR spread in any way possible.

By: OsRavan

OsRavan — Fri, 18 May 2012 12:43:44 +0000

I myself dont agree with the ‘too many homerun’ argument bit.

But, in their defense, doesn’t the argument go that by always *trying* to hit the homerun, the team assures they wont get other sort of hits at crucial times and it becomes all or nothing? So, logically, wouldn’t your numbers actually BACK UP their argument? i.e when the team hits homeruns they win, but if they can’t hit a homerun they cant win other ways because all they are trying for is the homerun?

I’m not sure what stats you would look at to disprove the above argument. Maybe something having to do with hits with risp in seasons with a lot of homeruns versus seasons with less? Dunno.

But yeah, even while I agree with you that on the whole more homeruns are better for a team, I could see where it could be argued the above stats dont demolish the other argument.

Interesting post though (and wow huge drop off recently too on that graph)

By: OldYanksFan

OldYanksFan — Thu, 17 May 2012 23:01:55 +0000

We have a good team.
We only have trouble Winning in 2 types of games:
1) Games where we hit HRs.
2) Games where we don’t hit HRs.

h/t Joe Namath

By: Chris in Sydney

Chris in Sydney — Thu, 17 May 2012 21:29:51 +0000

Russell Martin was quoted last night as saying that it seemed like guys (his teammates) were trying to hit three-run homers with no one on. Are they all just trying to hit homers no matter what the situation? It just seems like they’re really bad at hitting with runners on base because many guys don’t change their approach. Seems to me this is something Girardi should be emphasizing more.

By: Alex Belth

Alex Belth — Thu, 17 May 2012 20:37:00 +0000

Yeah, I don’t see a problem with hitting homers. Giving them up, however, that’s an issue. And Phil Hughes going tonight isn’t settling any nerves on that count.

By: rbj

rbj — Thu, 17 May 2012 20:36:12 +0000

Very interesting.

Off to watch the Nomad Yankees visit the Mud Hens tonight.