Pettitte made just one mistake all night, a hanging curveball that man Jeff Mathis hit for a double to lead off the third for the Angels. Mathis moved to third on a groundout and scored on a two-out Bobby Abreu single. It was the only run the Halos would get off Pettitte in his 6 1/3 innings of work. Pettitte got into a bit of a jam with two outs in the sixth when Torii Hunter singled and Vlad Guerrero doubled him to third, but Hunter’s single was a chopper that didn’t get beyond the infield grass and Guerrero’s double was a bloop to shallow right that Vlad golfed out of the dirt. Andy then fell behind Kendry Morales, 3-0, but got a Morales to chop a comebacker right at his beak for the final out of the inning.

In the meantime, the Yankees put up a three-spot on Angels starter Joe Saunders in the fourth. After Robinson Cano walked and the newly Swish-hawked Nick Swisher punched a single through the shortstop hole, Melky Cabrera bunted both runners up. Saunders then pitched around Derek Jeter, walking him on eight pitches, to get to slumping fellow lefty Johnny Damon. Damon got ahead 2-0, then punched the 2-1 pitch up the middle to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead. After Mark Teixeira reached on an infield single deep in the shortstop hole that reloaded the bases, Saunders walked in a third run on five pitches to Alex Rodriguez. The last pitch to Rodriguez seemed to be a strike (Alex was seen saying as much to Mick Kelleher at first base), but one got the sense that Saunders got off easy given Rodriguez’s hot hitting in this postseason. Darren Oliver got Jorge Posada to hit into a double play to end the threat, but Pettitte and the Yankees had their lead.

With one out in the top of the seventh, Juan Rivera singled on Pettitte’s 99th pitch of the night. Joe Girardi then called on Joba Chamberlain to pitch to the righty Mathis. Mike Scioscia countered with switch-hitting Maicer Izturis, thus taking one of his hottest hitters out of the game. Given his struggles in this series, Chamberlain seemed like a dubious choice with a slim, two-run lead, but Joba got Izturis to hit a would-be double play ball to shortstop. The ball took a funny bounce on Derek Jeter, but rolled right to Cano standing on second base for a fielder’s choice. Joba then got Erick Aybar to ground out to Jeter on two pitches.

Just six outs from the World Series, Girardi didn’t mess around. He skipped right over the scuffling Phil Hughes and went straight to Mariano Rivera. Rivera was greeted by a Chone Figgins single that was later plated by a single by Guerrero, but the other three men he faced in the eighth grounded out to the right side of the infield.

Nursing a one-run lead, the Yankee bats added some insurance in the eighth, again initiated by a Cano lead-off walk, this time on four pitches from Ervin Santana. With Scott Kazmir on in relief, Nick Swisher attempted to bunt Cano to second, but second baseman Howie Kendrick dropped the throw at first base leaving men on first and second with none out. Cabrera then attempted to bunt both runners up, but Kazmir babied the throw which sailed over Kendrick allowing Cano to score and pinch-runner Brett Gardner to go to third. After an unproductive groundout by Jeter, who has been battling a cold, Damon worked a seven-pitch walk, and Mark Teixeira hit a sac fly to deep center to plate Gardner and set the score at 5-2. Jered Weaver then came on and walked Rodriguez on four pitches before striking out Posada on six.

With that, Rivera popped back out of the dugout and set the Angels down in order, wrapping up the pennant by striking out pinch-hitter Gary Matthews Jr. with a fastball up and away.

There’s a sense that the Yankees are back in familiar territory, but while Pettitte will be playing in his eighth World Series, Jeter and Rivera their seventh, and Posada his sixth, this is a first for the vast majority of the team. Hideki Matsui was on the 2003 pennant winners, Jose Molina was on the 2002 Angels, Johnny Damon and Eric Hinske were on the 2004 and 2007 Red Sox, respectively, and Damaso Marte was on the 2005 White Sox, but for the other 16 men on the roster, including Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and even home grown Yankees Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera, this will be their first World Series.

One could see that difference in the celebrations. While Rivera and Posada shared a long, quiet embrace, Teixeira and Rodriguez acted like, well, like they had just won the American League pennant.

The Yankees have two days to celebrate and prepare for the arrival of the Phillies on Wednesday. With Pettitte having done his job, CC Sabathia will start Game One of the World Series in a stellar matchup against fellow lefty Cliff Lee. For the first time since 1996 the Yankees will be the challengers to the defending world champions. That’s fine by me. Feels like old times.

The real drag would be if the Angels force a Game Seven. That would not only force CC Sabathia to pitch on Monday, pushing his first World Series start back to Game Three and eliminating any hope of him making three Series starts, but would also draw a John Lackey on three-day’s rest. It would be thrilling baseball, but I’m sure Yankee fans would rather save the thrills for the World Series.

At any rate, until tomorrow night . . .

There are only five Yankees, and no coaches, remaining from the 2004 team that blew a 3-0 lead in the ALCS against the Red Sox–Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Alex Rodriguez–but it surely lingers in the minds of Johnny Damon, who was on the other side of that collapse, and Andy Pettitte, who spent October 2004 in Texas, nursing his surgically repaired pitching elbow and likely wishing he could have taken the ball for his old mates in the disastrous Game Seven.

Pettitte gets his chance tonight, looking to put the Yankees into the World Series for the first time since 2003, the final year of his initial run with the team. Alex and I both expect Pettitte to come up big, but the fact that the Yankees are 0-5 in their last two ALCS in potential series-clinching games will linger in my mind until they put a “1″ in the win column there.

Pettitte’s start tonight will be his first home start of this postseason. Pettitte struggled at the new Yankee Stadium early in the regular season. On May 7, in his third start at the new park, he gave up four home runs in six innings in a loss to the Rays. In his previous start, he had allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Angels in a game the Yankees came back to win. However, Pettitte seemed to finally settle in at the new digs down the stretch. In four home starts in August and September, he posted a 2.52 ERA and compiled this line: 25 IP, 22 H, 7 R, 11 BB, 20 K. Yes, the walks were a bit high, but he allowed just one home run in those four starts, a seventh-inning solo shot by David Murphy.

Joe Saunders is the man charged with extending the Angels’ season. Saunders pitched very well, and very similarly, in his last two starts against the Yankees, September 21 in Anaheim (8 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K), and in Game Two of this series in the Bronx (7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K). With that ALCS start included, Saunders is 7-0 with a 2.56 ERA in nine starts since returning from a disabled-list stay due to a tired pitching shoulder.

Despite a tendency to overmanage in other areas thus far this series, Joe Girardi is running out his standard lineup tonight, complete with Nick Swisher batting in his usual eight spot. The only question now is if they’ll get the game in. They’ll try, primarily to avoid facing Jered Weaver and John Lackey in the final two games. At this point in the postseason, I doubt there’s much risk of losing gate due to a one-day delay.

Let’s cut to the chase here. After a 13-inning Game Two, the Yankees and Angels were tied in extra inning again in Game Three, this time 4-4 in the bottom of the 11th. In relief of starter Andy Pettitte–who allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings on a solo homer by Howie Kendrick in the fifth and a two-out, two-run, game-tying shot by Vladimir Guerrero in the sixth–Joe Girardi had already used Joba Chamberlain (who allowed what was then the go-ahead run following a Kendrick triple in the seventh), Damaso Marte, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, and Mariano Rivera.

Rivera came on in the bottom of the tenth following a lead-off double by backup catcher Jeff Mathis off Hughes. Erick Aybar greeted Rivera with a sac bunt that Rivera, attempting to get Mathis at third, bounced past Alex Rodriguez in a play that eerily recalled Rivera’s error in Game Seven of the 2001 World Series. Rivera’s throw hit the dirt because he made it while spinning and falling to the grass on the third-base side of the mound. The error would have won the game for the Angels had Johnny Damon not backed up the throw perfectly, holding Mathis at third. With the infield playing in, Chone Figgins hit a hard shot down the first base line that Mark Teixeira smothered, holding Mathis and forcing Figgins out at first for the first out. With runners on second and third and one out, Girardi had Rivera walk Bobby Abreu to set up a force at every base and sent Jerry Hairston Jr. out to left field to replace the weak-armed Damon in case he needed to make a potentially game-saving throw to the plate. Rivera got Torii Hunter to ground into a 3-2 force to Teixeira that erased Mathis at home, then got Vlad Guerrero to ground out to Teixeira’s right to end the inning.

The catch was that, when Girardi sent Hairston into the field, Hairston was already in the game as the designated hitter having pinch-hit for Brett Gardner, who pinch-ran for original DH Hideki Matsui, who walked to put the tying run on base in the eighth. Gardner was caught stealing two pitches before Jorge Posada hit a game-tying solo homer. Hairston hit for Gardner because Gardner’s spot in the order came due when the Angels’ lefty closer Brian Fuentes was on the mound (never mind that Hairston hit .242/.319/.422 against lefties during the regular season while Gardner hit .291/.381/.400 against them and had a reverse split in Triple-A in 2008 as well).

Moving Hairston into the field put Rivera in the batting order in Damon’s place, which was due up third in the following inning. Rivera used 17 pitches to get into and out of that jam in the tenth, and his spot came due with two outs and none on in the top of the 11th. Still, Girardi sent up third-catcher Francisco Cervelli to hit for Rivera, leaving just Jose Molina and Freddy Guzman on the bench (I assume Guzman can’t throw either, or he’d have been a much simpler defensive replacement for Damon). Facing Ervin Santana, Cervelli struck out, and Girardi went to David Robertson in the bottom of the 11th, leaving just Alfredo Aceves and Chad Gaudin in his bullpen.

Robertson, who pitched out of a jam in Game Two of the ALDS against the Twins in almost exactly the same manner that Rivera did in the tenth inning of this game, got Juan Rivera to ground out to short and Kendry Morales to fly out to left to start the 11th. Then Girardi popped out of the dugout to bring in Aceves to face Howie Kendrick.

Why?

That will be a question Joe Girardi will be asked until the Yankees win this series, and throughout the winter and possibly beyond if they don’t. Robertson looked good against his two batters, getting ahead 1-2 on Rivera and throwing strike one to Morales before running the count full and getting him to fly out. His postseason mettle had been tested in that jam against the Twins, and the Yankees had just two pitchers left in the pen in part because Chamberlain, Marte, and Coke each threw just one-third of a frame, and Rivera had been taken out after one due to loss of the DH.

Pressed for an answers after the game, pitching coach Dave Eiland said, “We just liked the matchup better.” I understand that to a certain degree. Robertson and Aceves are both right-handers, but Robertson is a power pitcher who challenges hitters with his low- to mid-90s fastball that seems faster due to his delivery and a hard-breaking curve, while Aceves is a kitchen-sink junkballer who changes speeds and keeps hitters off balance. Matchups aren’t always just about handedness or even the raw quality of a pitchers stuff. Sometimes they’re about style, and Girardi and Eiland clearly preferred Aceves’s junkballing against Kendrick, who is something of a right-handed Robinson Cano type, rather than Robertson’s power combo.

What I don’t get is why they felt they had to make a move with two out and none on. Yes, Kendrick had homered earlier in the game, but that was off the lefty Pettitte. Kendrick has just 12 homers in 963 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in his major league career. If Kendrick got a hit, Girardi and Eiland could concern themselves about the best matchup against the typically weak-hitting Mathis (which very well may have been Aceves as well, but I suspect would have been Robertson).

As it was, Aceves fell behind Kendrick 2-0, then 3-1, and Kendrick hit the 3-1 pitch back up through the middle for a single. Aceves then threw ball one to Mathis after which Mathis crushed a shot to the left-field gap that scored Kendrick with the winning run, handing the Yankees their first loss of the postseason, 5-4 in 11 innings.

The loss is a bitter one given the many questionable decisions that led to it, but it may ultimately proove moot. The Yankees still hold a 2-1 lead in the series and have CC Sabathia going Tuesday night in Game Four, giving them a good chance to go up 3-1. Of course, the Yankee offense will have to contribute as well. The Yankees’ four runs in this game came on a quartet of solo homers (by Derek Jeter leading off the game, Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, and Jorge Posada), but they left ten other men on base, not counting Gardner, who was erased by a well-timed pitchout. The Yankees are 5-1 thus far this postseason, but they’ve scored exactly four runs in all but the first of those games and needed extra innings in two of them to get to that underwhelming total.

The Yankees need to turn the page quickly from this exhausting and dispiriting loss. They’re still in great shape in this series, but given their history in Anaheim, it’s easy to see how this loss could get into their heads. Yankee fans should be glad it’s not Chad Gaudin or Joba Chamberlain starting Game Four.

The Angels’ must-win games are those started by this afternoon’s starting pitcher, Jered Weaver. The Angels won Weaver’s Game Two start in the ALDS against the Red Sox, taking commanding 2-0 lead in the series on their way to a three-game sweep. Coming into this series, they rejiggered their rotation so that Weaver could make his first start at Angel Stadium, where his ERA this season was nearly two runs better than it was on the road (and is nearly a run better on his career) and where he made his strong ALDS start. Weaver was the Angels’ best starter during the regular season and tonight matches up against Andy Pettitte, the Yankees’ number-three. That’s as close to a favorable pitching matchup as the Angels are going to get prior to John Lackey taking on A.J. Burnett in Game Five. This is a game the Halos have to have.

That would be true even if the Angels didn’t come home down 0-2 in the series, but given that predicament, this game goes from a must-have to perhaps their last chance to save their season. Because both of the games in New York were played as scheduled (despite foreboding forecasts of rain), CC Sabathia remains on schedule to start Game Four on short rest against Scott Kazmir, who struggled in his ALDS start against the Red Sox. If the Angels lose again tonight, Sabathia, who dominated the Halos in Game One, will take the mound with a chance to complete an unexpected Yankee sweep. (I’d quote the unfavorable stats about teams down 0-3 in best-of-seven series, but the lone exception to the rule just happens be the last team to face the Yankees in the ALCS.)

However, if the Angels win tonight behind Weaver, it makes Game Four a must-win for the Yankees, not only because Sabathia is starting, but because another loss there would let the Angels all the way back into the series, tying it up 2-2 and giving Anaheim all of the momentum heading into that Lackey-Burnett matchup in Game Five.

Weaver made three starts against the Yankees this season, the best of which was the one he made at home, when he struck out nine Yankees in six innings on July 11. Still, even in that game, Weaver allowed four runs (three earned), in part due to the two home runs he allowed. One of those homers was hit by Eric Hinske, who was left off the Yankees’ ALCS roster, but the other was hit by Mr. Clutch himself, Alex Rodriguez.

The loser in that game, incidentally, was Andy Pettitte, who gave up six runs on seven hits in just 4 1/3 innings. Pettitte was similarly kicked around in an earlier start against the Angels in the Bronx, but a return trip to Anaheim resulted in a quality-start win on September 21. The difference was the overall improvement in Pettitte’s pitching in the second half, which he maintained with a solid start against the Twins in the clinching game in the ALDS.

In his two postseason starts since returning to the Yankees, Pettitte, who tied John Smoltz for the most postseason wins ever with that win in the Metrodome’s final game, has allowed just one run in 12 2/3 innings, striking out 12 against three walks and no homers. Weaver has a 2.19 ERA in two career postseason starts, both of them coming at home against the Red Sox in the ALDS. He’ll face the usual Yankee lineup this afternoon.

Most significantly, Johnson, who was brought in to be the dominant ace who would make the difference for the Yankees in the postseason as he had for the 2001 Diamondbacks who beat the Yankees in the World Series, was awful in both of his postseason starts as a Yankee. To make matters worse, both of those starts were key Game Three rubber matches in best-of-five ALDS series that were tied 1-1. Johnson’s failures put the Yankees in 1-2 holes against the Angels in 2005 and the Tigers in 2006, a game away from elimination, contributing mightily to the team’s first-round exits both years.

Burnett has proven to be a far better teammate than Johnson, but his regular season performance in 2009 was certainly Unit-esque. However, his role in the postseason has thus far been very different. There are two key reasons. The first is that CC Sabathia, not Burnett, is the man the Yankees are counting on to be that dominant post-season ace, and Sabathia has thus far delivered. The second is that Burnett, though he opened the season in the third spot in the rotation behind Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, is not starting those crucial Games Three. Instead he’s following Sabathia, which means that thus far both of his starts have come with the Yankees up 1-0. That’s a much lower risk situation as a Burnett stinker would do no worse than tie the series with plenty of games left to play.

Also, to Burnett’s credit, he pitched well against the Twins in his first career postseason start. It was a typical Burnett outing in which he put more men on base (seven, five via walk plus two hit by pitch) than got there via hits (three), but the end result was just one run alowed in six innings and, ultimately, a Yankee win.

Tonight he looks to put the Yankees up 2-0 against the arch-rival Angels and lefty Joe Saunders, once again pitching to Jose Molina. As for Saunders, he’s been excellent since returning from an August DL stay, going 7-0 in eight starts with a 2.55 ERA, including a strong 8 1/3-inning outing against the Yankees in Anaheim on September 21. The DL stay was due to a tight shoulder, and it seems the two weeks off were exactly what he needed.

Outside of Molina batting ninth, the Yankee order is the same as last night, including Hideki Matsui DHing against the lefty (because he hits them well, and so that Posada can sub in for Molina once Burnett is out of the game).

Despite forecasts of rain, it’s still dry in northern New Jersey a half-hour before first pitch. Still, the bitter cold could negatively effect Burnett’s ability to grip his knuckle-curve, giving sinker/slider pitcher Saunders and edge. If so, perhaps Girardi will get Posada in the game even earlier, as it was Burnett’s doubts about Posada’s ability to block that curve in the dirt that led to his preference for Molina.

This year, Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland never once asked Sabathia to start on short rest during the season and gave him an extra day or two of rest before 12 of his 34 starts. Sabathia finished the year with “just” 230 innings pitched. As a result, his postseason line after two starts looks like this: 14 2/3 IP, 12 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 15 K, 1.23 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 2-0.

The Yankees got two runs in the bottom of the first of Game One of the ALCS Friday night thanks to a pair of defensive miscues by the Angels, who played a sloppy game on a frigid night in the Bronx. Sabathia made those two runs stand up for eight innings, and Mariano Rivera closed the door in the ninth, giving the Yankees a 1-0 lead in the series. That’s really all you need to know, but here are the details.

After Sabathia pitched around a two-out single by Torii Hunter in the top of the first, a hit that would prove to be one of just four Sabathia allowed on a night in which just five Angels reached base, Derek Jeter led off the bottom of the first with a classic opposite-field single off John Lackey. Johnny Damon, who went 1-for-12 in the Division Series against the Twins, but spent the layoff in between series working on his swing with hitting coach Kevin Long, particularly on reducing his head movement, followed with an opposite field single of his own, dropping a hit down near the left-field foul line. Ex-Yankee Juan Rivera gathered up the ball, but his throw to second was off-line, allowing Damon to move to second. After Mark Teixeira flew out to shallow left, Alex Rodriguez lifted a sac fly to center to give the Yankees an early 1-0 lead. Lackey then got Hideki Matsui to pop out behind third, but shortstop Erick Aybar didn’t hear third baseman Chone Figgins tell him to take the ball and it fell in between the two of them for what was absurdly ruled a single as Damon scored the second Yankee run of the inning.

That was all Sabathia would need. In the top of the fourth, Vlad Guerrero hit what looked like a home run to the visiting bullpen in left center, but the ball hit off the Plexiglas wall and Guerrero, in his home run trot, cruised into second with a double. He later scored on a Kendry Morales single, but that was the only run the Angels managed all night. Sabathia didn’t give up another hit the rest of the night, retiring 13 of the next 14 Angel batters (the exception being a walk to Morales in the seventh).

Meanwhile, the Yankees added some insurance runs. Damon led off the fifth with a double and scored on another by Matsui. Alex Rodriguez walked in between the two and ran through a stop sign to try to score on Matsui’s hit. The throw beat Rodriguez to the plate, but despite an awkward collision, catcher Jeff Mathis never actually tagged him. Nonetheless, Alex was ruled out and no one argued the call. It was just as well, he should have obeyed his third base coach (Alex admitted his mistake after the game, saying he had put his head down too early), and the run wouldn’t have changed the outcome of the game.

In the sixth, Melky Cabrera, another ALDS scuffler who had a good night, going 1-for-2 with a pair of free passes, walked, moved to second when Lackey’s attempted pick-off throw dove into the runner and got past Morales at first base, then scored on a single to center by Jeter. Jeter’s hit took an unexpected hop on Torii Hunter in center, getting past Hunter and allowing Jeter to go to second, but the extra base proved moot. Nonetheless, it was the Angels third error of the game (and should have been their fourth).

Pitching in relief of Lackey in the seventh, righty Jason Bulger loaded the bases with two outs on a pair of walks and a pitch that hit Robinson Cano in the ankle, but both the HBP and the jam left no lasting results as Nick Swisher struck out to end the threat.

Sabathia worked eight full, throwing a reasonable 113 pitches and striking out seven. Rivera came on in the ninth and, after a leadoff walk to Hunter, locked down the 4-1 win. The Yankees take a 1-0 lead in the series and are looking sharp and smart with CC still on schedule to pitch twice more in this series should it reach seven games.

As a sort of pregame show, here’s the latest Bronx Banter Breakdown staring Alex, myself, and Ted Berg talking Yankees-Angels ALCS. My massive series preview is the post below this one. We can’t get any more ready. Play ball!

When the decade began, the idea of a Yankees-Angels rivalry seemed laughable. The Yankees were on their way to their fourth world championship in five years and the Angels hadn’t made the postseason since 1986. Then came 2002. Having come two outs from a fifth title in 2001, the Yankees won the AL East for the fifth year in a row and were matched up against a surprising 99-win Wild Card team from Anaheim in the first round. The Yankees were the clear favorites, but after pulling out a come-from-behind win in Game One thanks to an eighth-inning homer by Bernie Williams, they were swept in the next three games by the relentless Angels, who went on to win the franchise’s first pennant and world championship.

A losing season in 2003 seemed to paint the Halos as a fluke, but they came storming back in 2004 and won their division. Since then, the Angels have won the AL West in five of the last six years, went 30-18 against the Yankees from 2004 to 2008, and beat the Yankees in the ALDS again in 2005 in a nerve-wracking series that saw the Yankees blow fifth-inning leads in Games Two and Three and lose Game Five in large part because of an outfield collision between Gary Sheffield and Bubba Crosby that allowed two runs to score.

It was also that series that, to many minds, sealed Alex Rodriguez’s reputation as a post-season choker. Rodriguez hit .133 in the series and, representing the tying run in the ninth inning of Game Five, followed a Derek Jeter leadoff single with a back-breaking double-play. The trick was that the Angels gave Rodriguez nothing to hit, walking him six times and hitting him twice. As with that double play, Alex got himself into trouble by expanding his zone and swinging at the junk he was being offered, but he still posted a .435 on-base percentage on the series. That devilish and effective strategy came from the mind of manager Mike Scioscia, who took over the Angels in 2000 and has presided over what has been by far the franchise’s most successful decade.

The Angels seemed to have the Yankees’ number again this year when they swept them in Anaheim just before the All-Star break to take a 4-2 lead in the season series, but the Yankees, as they did to the entire league, stormed back in the second half to even the series, thus avoiding losing the season set to the Halos for the first time since 2003.

Both teams swept their way to this year’s ALCS, though the Angels did it in more convincing fashion against a superior opponent, the Red Sox, while the Yankees needed a pair of comebacks to beat the lowly Twins. For the Angels, it is their first ALCS appearance since they beat the Yankees to get there in 2005. For the Yankees, it’s their first since they were victims of the Red Sox’s groundbreaking comeback from a 0-3 deficit in games in 2004. Though both teams are postseason staples, making five of the last six, neither has reached the World Series since the Yankees out-lasted the Red Sox in the epic 2003 ALCS.

The blood isn’t nearly as bad in this matchup, but the Yankees find themselves on an unfamiliar side of this one-sided rivalry. It’s the Bombers who always come up short in this pairing. Having finally escaped the perilous best-of-five format of the Division Series, this rivalry will literally reach the next level over the next week. Though the Yankees are clearly the better team by objective measure, I expect the series will be hard-fought and heart-stopping. My official prediction is Yankees in seven, and I expect nothing less.

Lineup:

Derek Jeter (.334/.406/.465, 30 SB @ 86%)
Chone Figgins (.298/.395/.393, 42 SB @ 71%)

When broadcasters and baseball scribes talk about the Angels learning patience from Bobby Abreu, they’re primarily talking about Figgins. Chone’s previous career high was 65 walks, but this year he led the AL (besting even Abreu himself) with 101, posting a career-best .395 on-base percentage as a result. That spike in his walk rate is the only reason he even sniffs Jeter here. Derek has far more power, and Figgins, despite his speed and impressive gross stolen base total, makes too many outs on the bases (he led the majors in times caught stealing this year with 17). Another strike against Figgins is that he went hitless in the ALDS (the only other starter to go hitless in this year’s LDS was Colorado’s Clint Barmes), while Jeter crushed. Figgins did draw a walk, though.

Johnny Damon (.282/.365/.489, 24 HR, 12 SB @ 100%)
Bobby Abreu (.293/.390/.435, 15 HR, 30 SB @ 79%)

Abreu hit third for the Angels for most of the regular season, but in the LDS, Mike Scioscia moved him into what is really the most appropriate lineup spot for him, the two-hole. Bobby shed some power in 2009, but he got on base more often and stole more bases at a higher percentage this year than he did in either of his two full seasons as a Yankee and did it for a fraction of the price. Damon’s power, meanwhile, was largely a product of the new Yankee Stadium as he hit a more pedestrian .284/.349/.446 on the road. Damon’s perfect record on the bases is impressive, but he gave back a lot of those outs in the field, while Abreu improved over his dismal performance in right field for the Yankees in 2008. Also, in an inversion of the Jeter-Figgins comparison, Abreu crushed in the LDS, while Damon’s only noticeable act was his pointless dive for Brendan Harris’s triple in Game Two.

This is one of just two wins for the Angels, and suggests that the Yankees would be better off bringing back Abreu, who is four months Damon’s junior, and letting Damon walk should they be unable to land Jason Bay or Matt Holliday for left field at an acceptable price this winter. But that’s for another post . . .

Mark Teixeira (.292/.383/.565, 39 HR, 122 RBI)
Kendry Morales (.306/.355/.569, 34 HR, 108 RBI)

I juggled the middle three spots in the lineup to produce the closest comparisons. Putting Teixeira up against his replacement, Kendry Morales, was an obvious choice. Cuban defector Morales hit just .249/.302/.408 with 12 homers in 377 major league at-bats prior to 2009, but crushed in the minors, hitting .335/.374/.518 at triple-A over the last three seasons. He finally brought that production to the Show this year at age 26, but he still falls short of Teixeira, who is just three years older if Morales’s official age is accurate, due to his his deficit in on-base percentage. Also, Scioscia hits Morales fifth, giving him fewer opportunities than Teixeira has in the Yankees three-hole. With numbers this close, that matters.

Alex Rodriguez (.286/.402/.532, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 14 SB @ 88%)
Torii Hunter (.299/.366/.508, 22 HR, 90 RBI, 18 SB @ 82%)

Hunter and Rodriguez match up because both missed roughly a month due to a leg injury. Hunter played in 119 games, making 506 plate appearances; Rodriguez played in 124 getting 535. Coincidentally, both were born in July 1975. Their work on the basepaths is a wash, otherwise Rodriguez wins this one easy, as you’d expect. Also, though Torii had a big homer in Game One, Alex had a far better ALDS, which isn’t terribly predictive, but feels nice to say.

Hideki Matsui (.274/.367/.509, 28 HR, 90 RBI)
Vladimir Guerrero (.295/.334/.460, 15 HR, 50 RBI)

Another apt comparison in terms of age (Vlad is eight months younger, but seems older) and condition (both have been reduced to DH duties by a series of immobilizing injuries). However, full-time DH duty was enough to keep Matsui healthy this year as he racked up 526 plate appearances, while Guerrero still broke down, managing just 407 PA.

Despite his recent decline, Guerrero has still been worth a good ten wins more than the right fielders the Yankees have played in his place since George Steinbrenner opted to sign the 35-year-old Gary Sheffield instead of the 29-year-old Vlad prior to the 2004 season:

Despite his poor regular season, Guerrero had a good ALDS, albeit without an extra-base hit. Matsui went just 2-for-9 against the Twins, but had a home run and three walks for a superior OPS. Given that Vlad doesn’t walk much, his vanishing power gives Godzilla the edge over even a healthy Impaler.

Jorge Posada (.285/.363/.522, 22 HR, 81 RBI)
Juan Rivera (.287/.332/.478, 25 HR, 88 RBI)

Getting back to the actual Angels batting order, we have a pair of Yankee farmhands with similar triple-crown stats, though the full slash stats show Posada’s obvious superiority, ditto the fact that Posada put up his counting stats in about 150 fewer plate appearances. That said, Rivera, who seemed like a throw-in when the Yankees dealt Nick Johnson to Montreal for Javy Vazquez, has far exceeded my expectations for him. Coincidentally, both Rivera and Johnson lost most (in Nick’s case, all) of 2007 to a broken leg.

Robinson Cano (.320/.352/.520, 25 HR, 85 RBI)
Maicer Izturis (vs. RHP .290/.344/.428; 13 SB @ 72%)/Howie Kendrick (vs. LHP .313/.331/.500; 11 SB @ 73%)

None of these seventh-place hitters hit a lick in the LDS, but prior to that, Cano out-hit even the combined splits of the Angels’ second-base platoon. That said, Hendrick, demoted in mid-June while hitting .231/.281/.355, thereby opening the door for Izturis to take over the bulk of the keystone duties, hit .351/.387/.532 after returning. With the Yankees giving a potential five starts to lefties CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, Kendrick will get the majority of the at-bats at the position in this series. Kendrick is 8-for-12 career against Sabathia, a small sample, but a convincing one, which tilts this spot back toward the Angels. Still, Kendrick can’t match Cano’s power, is even less likely to draw a walk, and Cano beats Izturis easy.

Note: Izturis was better against lefties in ’09, but that was a small-sample fluke that ran counter to his career history.

Nick Swisher (.249/.371/.498, 29 HR, 82 RBI)
Jeff Mathis (.211/.288/.308)/Mike Napoli (.272/.350/.492, 20 HR, 56 RBI)

It’s not surprising that, having been one, Mike Scioscia has a weakness for defense-first catchers, but his habit of starting Mathis over Napoli defies explanation. It’s nearly equivalent to starting Jose Molina over Jorge Posada. There’s very little in their defensive stats to back up Scioscia’s preference. Mathis isn’t markedly better at throwing out runners. Napoli has hit .273/.359/.527 with 40 homers and 105 RBIs in 609 at-bats over the past two seasons, but he only plays half the time because . . . why? Edge: Swisher.

Melky Cabrera (.274/.336/.416, 10 SB @ 83%)
Erick Aybar (.312/.353/.423, 14 SB @ 67%)

The difference between the Twins and Angels is stark at the bottom of the order. The Twins ran out a bunch of over-extended bench players and minor leaguers. The Angels have real-life hitters down here (at least when Napoli starts). Aybar gives up too many outs on the bases and his slash stats are buoyed by his batting average, but Melky’s foundation feels no more firm, giving the Angels the edge here.

Bench:

Save for Jose Molina’s lone at-bat as a starter in Game Two, no Yankee other than the typical starting nine came to the plate for the Bombers in the ALDS against the Twins. Of course, that was a three-game sweep, and the ALCS is likely to last at least twice as many games. Nonetheless, the Yankees have made one change to their playoff roster, dropping Eric Hinske to add pinch-runner Freddy Guzman. That effectively leaves them with a speed and defense bench devoid of a legitimate pinch-hitting option. So Brett Gardner or Guzman could pinch-run for, say, Jorge Posada or Hideki Matsui, but if that spot in the order should come around again, Jerry Hairston Jr. would be the most attractive pinch-hitting option. That seems like bad planning. Guzman is redundant with Gardner not getting starts, but with Melky Cabrera having struggled in the Division Series (2-for-12 with 5 Ks), Girardi has implied that Gardner just might draw some starts in center in this series, as well he should. Thus Guzman takes Gardner’s place on the bench and Melky takes Hinske’s for those games.

The Angels’ bench is actually similarly constructed. Both teams are carrying three catchers, one who can rake, one who is likely to draw undeserving starts, and a rookie to back up the position should pinch-running be required. Both have a speedy white outfielder (the Angels’ is Reggie Willits, who is actually a closer match to Guzman than Gardner). Both have an athletic, but generally punchless Junior (L.A.’s is Gary Matthews). The Angels will have good bats on the bench when Jeff Mathis and Maicer Izturis are starting, but they’ll pay for it in the starting lineup. The Halos have an extra man in corner infielder Robb Quinlan, who’s rendered largely irrelevant by the fact that the starting corner infielders are productive switch-hitters, as well as by his own futility this season. Call it a draw.

Rotation:

Though Joe Girardi hasn’t made an official announcement, the  Yankees are expected to take advantage of the off-day between Games Four and Five and go with a three-man rotation, barring the very unlikely event that they find themselves up 3-0 heading into Game Four. Such a rotation would find CC Sabathia starting on short rest in Game Four, but would still allow every other game to be started by a pitcher on full rest, including Sabathia in a potential Game Seven. Having Sabathia pitch three times in the series, including in Game Seven, is absolutely the right thing to do, but the plan could be washed out by the rain in the forecast for this weekend. For that reason, the matchups beyond Game Three will likely remain a mystery until this series moves to the West Coast.

LHP CC Sabathia (3.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 34 GS, 21 QS)
RHP John Lackey (3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.96 K/BB, 27 GS, 16 QS)

Sabathia is the best pitcher on either team, but the Angels beat him both times they faced him this year, both times scoring five runs in 6 2/3 innings. However, both games came prior to the All-Star break, and Sabathia found another gear in August, going 8-0 with a 1.62 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 4.21 K/BB in the ten-starts prior to his regular-season closing stinker. CC proved that final start a fluke in Game One against the admittedly weaker-hitting Twins, sloughing off his recent postseason struggles in the process. John Lackey beat CC on July 12, but that was then. Of greater concern was Lackey’s strong performance against the Red Sox in Game One of the ALDS. Edge: Yankees, in part because this one could go down to the bullpens.

RHP A.J. Burnett (4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.01 K/BB, 33 GS, 21 QS)
LHP Joe Saunders (4.60 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 1.58 K/BB, 31 GS, 13 QS)

Saunders draws the Game Two start to keep Jered Weaver at home, where his ERA was nearly two runs better. Scott Kazmir got beat up on the road in the ALDS, so Saunders. The catch is that Saunders’ road ERA was a run worse than his home mark and, as the fourth-starter in the Halos LDS sweep, hasn’t pitched since the regular season. Saunders did finish the season strong (7-0, 2.55 ERA in eight starts), but if that was so impressive, why didn’t Saunders draw an earlier start against the Bosox? Saunders started against the Yankees twice this season, both times in Anaheim, the first bad, the second, part of that season-ending run, good. Burnett was typical A.J. in two starts against the Angels on the season, going seven but allowing four runs in California in April, and striking out 11, but failing to complete six innings in the Bronx in September. This game could go in any direction, but Burnett’s the superior starter.

LHP Andy Pettitte (4.16 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB, 32 GS, 17 QS)
RHP Jered Weaver (3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB, 33 GS, 20 QS)

As I alluded to above, Weaver’s ERA at home this season was 2.90 compared to a 4.78 road mark, and he dominated the Red Sox at home in the LDS (7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K). Andy Pettitte was better on the road, but not that much better (3.71 to 4.59). Weaver gets the edge here, but if the series goes long, his second start (be it Game 6 on full rest or Game 7 in rotation) will come in the Bronx. Ditto Pettitte, though Andy seemed to conquer the new stadium in the season’s final two months.

RHP Chad Gaudin (4.76 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.79 K/BB, 25 GS, 11 QS)
LHP Scott Kazmir (4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB, 26 GS, 14 QS)

Sabathia will start against Kazmir in Game Four, but I wanted to show how well Gaudin actually matches up here based on the full regular season. Of course, Kazmir straightened himself out over his final nine starts (a common theme here), going 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 2.94 K/BB over his last eight starts. In fact, Kamzir’s Game Three start in Boston in the ALDS was his worst outing since August 9, which apparently was enough to convince Scioscia to start Saunders over Kaz in Game Two. Kazmir’s performance in Game Four will likely determine whether he, on normal rest, or Weaver on an extra day, starts a potential Game Seven, the choice being between a second start for Saunders, in Game Six, or Kazmir in Game Seven.

Closer:

Mariano Rivera (1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 6.00 K/BB, 44 SV, 2 BS, 6.032 WXRL)
Brian Fuentes (3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.92 K/BB, 48 SV, 7 BS, 2.434 WXRL)

Fuentes has the edge in saves, but he converted just 87 percent of his opportunities (among his blown saves was one against the Yankees on May 1 in which he faced four batters and failed to get an out) and was a mere 39th in WXRL. Rivera, who converted 96 percent and led the majors in WXRL. To make matters worse, Scioscia has developed a habit of starting the ninth inning with a different pitcher, using Fuentes almost as a ninth-inning LOOGY, while Rivera will often enter in the eighth, particularly in the postseason. This isn’t even close.

Behind Rivera the Yankees’ bullpen is clearly superior to the Angels’, only in part because the Yankee bullpen was the best in baseball (per WXRL) during the regular season. However, Phil Hughes wasn’t terribly sharp in the Division Series against the Twins, and Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, and Damaso Marte have only recently been restored to the pen. Thus, Joe Girardi’s willingness and effectiveness in juggling rolls according to performance will be key to the Yankee bullpen’s success for the remainder of the postseason. As for Scioscia, he’ll take what he can get and hope his starters pitch efficiently and go deep into games.

Defense:

The Yankees beat the Angels soundly in terms of both defensive efficiency and caught-stealing percentage and the two teams made almost exactly the same number of errors. The Yankees’ defense is the most underrated aspect of what is truly a championship-caliber team.

Baserunning:

The Angels stole 37 more bases than the Yankees during the regular season, but were caught 35 more times. That makes the Yankees the better basestealing team having swiped at an 80 percent success rate as a team to the Angels’ 70 percent. As I just mentioned, the Yankees were also better at throwing out runners, with Jorge Posada and Jose Molina both catching 28 percent of attempting opponents. So don’t believe they hype about the Angels’ running game. All the running they do might actually benefit the Yankees as they’ll run into some extra outs.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2009 Record: 97-65 (.599)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (.568)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium (103/102)

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Maicer Izturis (S)/Howie Kendrick (R)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli (R)
RF – Bobby Abreu (L)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Vlad Guerrero (R)

Bench:

R – Howie Kendrick (2B)/S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
S – Gary Matthews Jr. (OF)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
R – Robb Quinlan (1B/3B)
R – Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis (C)
R – Bobby Wilson (C)

Rotation:

R – John Lackey
R – Jered Weaver
L – Scott Kazmir
L – Joe Saunders

Bullpen:

L -Brian Fuentes
R – Kevin Jepsen
L – Darren Oliver
R – Jason Bulger
R – Ervin Santana
R – Matt Palmer

Key injuries:

RHP – Scot Shields (knee surgery)
RHP – Kelvim Escobar (shoulder tenderness)
RHP – Dustin Moseley (forearm surgery – nerve condition)

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
L – Bobby Abreu (RF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
R – Vlad Guerrero (DH)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Juan Rivera (LF)
S – Maicer Izturis/R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
R – Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli (C)
S – Erick Aybar (SS)

* * *

New York Yankees

2009 Record: 103-59 (.636)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (.586)

Manager: Joe Girardi
General Manager: Brian Cashman

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Yankee Stadium 2.0 (103/103)

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Nick Swisher (S)
CF – Melky Cabrera (S)
LF – Johnny Damon (L)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

L – Brett Gardner (CF)
S – Jerry Hairston Jr. (UT)
S – Freddy Guzman (OF)
R – Jose Molina (C)
R – Francisco Cervelli (C)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Phil Hughes
L – Phil Coke
R – Joba Chamberlain
R – Alfredo Aceves
L – Damaso Marte
R – David Robertson
R – Chad Gaudin

Key injuries:

RHP – Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder surgery)
OF – Xavier Nady (Tommy John surgery)

Typical Lineup:

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Johnny Damon (LF)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
L – Melky Cabrera (CF)

The first is a look at the heroes and goats of the four Division Series.

The second is a look at the players on advancing teams who struggled in the LDS and will need to step up their game in the second round.

The last is a photo gallery of the 15 most significant blunders in postseason history (not including blown calls or questionable managerial decisions), ranked and captioned by yours truly (start at 15 and click “back” to count down to number-one).

There’s plenty of Yankees (and Angels) material in each one, including this rather disturbing scene from the last playoff game between the two teams, which the Yankees will work to erase from their fans minds starting tomorrow night.

Starting pitchers A.J. Burnett and Nick Blackburn matched zeros for five innings. Blackburn allowed only a walk to Hideki Matsui before Robinson Cano, who along with Mark Teixeira was one of just two Yankee starters who went hitless in Game One, singled with two outs in the fifth. Burnett put runners on in every inning, but stranded them in the first five.

The first big play of the game came in the top of the fourth. After getting two quick outs, Burnett hit Delmon Young in the back and Carlos Gomez in the hand to put runners on first and second. Matt Tolbert then lined a clean single to shallow right center for what looked like the first RBI hit of the game, but Gomez took a wide turn around second then slipped. With Derek Jeter standing on second screaming for the ball, Nick Swisher fired to second to catch Gomez off the bag just moments before Young was able to cross home, ending the inning without a run scoring.

The Twins finally broke the scoreless tie in the top of the sixth after Young drew a one-out walk and stole second as Gomez struck out. Tolbert was due up, but had come down with a strained oblique, forcing Twins manager Ron Gardenhire to pinch-hit with Brendan Harris. Harris, who hit .238/.289/.340 against right-handers on the season, took to 3-1, then launched a bomb to the left-field gap. Johnny Damon did his jump-and-fall-down routine in a hopeless attempt to catch the ball, and the ball ricocheted off the wall and got past Melky Cabrera giving Harris an RBI triple. Burnett stranded Harris by getting Nick Punto to ground out on what proved to be his last pitch of the night. Then the Yankees answered back.

With Burnett out of the game, Joe Girardi sent Jorge Posada up to hit for Jose Molina. Posada flew out, but Derek Jeter crushed a ground-rule double to right center, and two batters later the new Alex Rodriguez delivered yet another two-out RBI single to tie the game.

Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke split a scoreless seventh. John Rauch answered with a 1-2-3 inning of his own. That passed the ball to Phil Hughes in the eighth. Taking his cue from Burnett, Hughes got two quick outs and had the crowd roaring “Huuuughes” with the count 1-2 on Gomez, but then issued three straight balls to put Gomez on base. That man Harris followed with a single that sent Gomez to third (and nearly to home). That brought up Nick Punto, the Twins gritty, gutty, scrappy, crappy ninth hitter. Punto took to 2-2, fouled off a pitch, then singled through the middle scoring Gomez with the go-ahead run.

Crap.

Joe Girardi then brought in Mariano Rivera who, as the TBS announcers reported, had allowed just 3 hits in 50 at-bats with men in scoring position in his postseason career. That became 4-for-51 as Denard Span singled Harris home to give the Twinks a 3-1 lead. Watching Rivera give up an insurance run, the Yankee Stadium crowd fell dead silent.

Twins set-up ace Matt Guerrier and Rivera exchanged scoreless innings, handing that 3-1 lead to Joe Nathan in the ninth. The first time these two teams met this season, the Yankees opened the series with a trio of walk-off wins at Yankee Stadium. In the first of those, Joe Nathan was handed a two-run lead in the ninth only to cough up both the lead and the game, one of just two losses Nathan suffered on the season.

Perhaps I had that game in the back of my mind, because looking at the Yankee batters due up–Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Hideki Matsui–I was convinced the Yankees would get a bloop from Teixeira and a blast from Rodriguez to tie the game.

Guess what?

Teixeira hit a 1-1 rope into right field for a lead-off single, and Alex Rodriguez, after taking to 3-1, crushed a fastball to the back wall of the Yankee bullpen in right for a game-tying home run.

Alex Rodriguez’s first postseason series as a Yankee was the 2004 ALDS against the Twins. With the Yankees trailing 6-5 in the 12th inning of Game Two of that series, Rodriguez hit a game-tying ground-rule double off Nathan as the Yankees rallied for the win. In Game Four, with the Yankees leading 2-1 in the series and the game tied 5-5 in the 11th, Rodriguez doubled, stole third, and scored what proved to be the series winning run on a wild pitch from Kyle Lohse to Gary Sheffield. Rodriguez hit .421/.476/.737 in that series and went 6-for-14 with two home runs and a pair of doubles in the first three games against the Red Sox in the subsequent ALCS.

From Game Four of the 2004 ALCS through the Yankees next two postseason series, ALDS losses to the Angels and Tigers, however, Rodriguez hit a dismal .109/.310/.196 in 58 plate appearances. He picked things up a bit against the Indians in 2007, hitting .267/.353/.467, but his only RBI came on a solo homer in the final game. Now, after two games in this postseason, Rodriguez is 4-for-8 with five RBIs, three of which came with two outs and the other two of which came on a game-tying home run off one of the game’s best closers in the bottom of the ninth. Throw in his work with the Mariners, and Alex Rodriguez is a career .290/.376/.503 hitter in the postseason. With that game-tying shot, Rodriguez officially laid to rest the “Alex can’t hit in October” fallacy. Good riddance.

Rodriguez’s homer sent the game into extra innings. Following the form, Alfredo Aceves got two quick outs in the tenth, then put runners on the corners before getting Orlando Cabrera to fly out. With Nathan still on in the tenth, Posada delivered a one-out single, setting up a typically thrilling pinch-running appearance by Brett Gardner.

Gardner stole second on the 2-0 pitch to Derek Jeter. Then, with the count 3-1, Nathan and Cabrera attempted to pick Gardner off on a timing play and had him beat to the bag, but Nathan’s throw looked more like a field goal attempt, splitting Cabrera on the bag and Punto playing his position and sailing into shallow center. Gardner dove back to the base, colliding with Cabrera’s knee, then stumbled after popping up to take third, but still beat Gomez’s throw.

With Gardner on third and one out, Gardenhire had Nathan issue an intentional ball four to Jeter and brought in rookie lefty Jose Mijares to go after Johnny Damon. Mijares’s first three pitches were out of the zone. He then poured in a gimme strike and got the count full when Damon fouled off the next pitch. Damon put good wood on the 3-2 pitch, but his sinking liner toward shortstop was caught by Cabrera, who was playing in to cut off the run. Gardner, thinking the ball would hit the grass, broke with contact rather than waiting for the ball to hit the ground and was easily doubled off to end the inning.

Gardner told Chad Jennings after the game, “It‘s a tough read. There’s not much time to make a decision and I thought it was going to short-hop him. When I saw that he caught it, I was committed to going home. Obviously I’m a little frustrated at myself for making a bad decision.”

Joe Girardi turned to Damaso Marte to start the 11th against Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel, but both singled, forcing Girardi to turn to the penultimate man in his pen, rookie David Robertson.

I should note that Mauer actually did more than single; he hit a ground-rule double down the left-field line, but left-field umpire Phil Cuzzi called the clearly fair ball foul, blowing his only responsibility in the game. The tone of this recap might have been very different had Cuzzi gotten the call right. Nonetheless, the soon-to-be MVP regrouped to single to center.

Robertson began his postseason career by giving up a single to Michael Cuddyer, but Mauer had to hold at third on the hit, putting Robertson in a bases-loaded no-outs jam with only Chad Gaudin, being held in reserve for extended work, available to relieve him. Robertson threw a curve to Delmon Young that Young lit into, but hit directly at the drawn-in Mark Teixeira (the Twins runners all stayed on their bases). Carlos Gomez then also swung at the first pitch, hitting a slow chopper to Teixeira, who threw home to force Mauer for the second out. With the bases still loaded, that man Brendan Harris came up, but flew out to Gardner on a 1-1 pitch, stranding all three runners, putting the Twins total for the game at 17 men left on base.

Mijares stayed on to face Teixeira batting righty in the bottom of the 11th. Teixeira took ball one. Missed strike one. Took ball two, then yanked the 2-1 pitch off the top of the left field wall, just above the 318-foot sign for a game-winning home run.

There was a brief pause before everyone realized the ball had indeed skipped into the stands for a home run, then the place went nuts. Teixeira looked like he was skipping around the bases. As he rounded third, he launched his helmet into the air then ran deep into his swarming teammates, who began jumping up and down in unison.

The Yankees had 15 previous walk-off wins this season, each celebrated with a pie in the face from A.J. Burnett. The only Yankee regulars who didn’t deliver walk-off hits during the regular season were Jeter and Teixeira. Friday night, Burnett got to end the night of his first post-season start by slathering Teixeira with one of his custom walk-off pies.

Yanks lead 2-0 and look to end the series and the Metrodome against Carl Pavano on Sunday. Suddenly, that feels just right.

I was an outspoken opponent of the five-year, $82.5 million contract the Yankees signed A.J. Burnett to in December. With one of those five regular seasons in the books, Burnett has exceeded my expectations in just one way: he stayed healthy and took every one of his turns throughout the season. That’s no small thing, but the net result of Burnett’s 33 starts wasn’t quite what you’d expect from a $16.5 million pitcher, and there are still four more years in which Burnett could well validate my concerns about his injury history.

The contract doesn’t matter tonight. All that matters is how well Burnett pitches in his first postseason start, which is why Joe Girardi has opted to start Jose Molina behind the plate despite the huge drop in production he represents at the plate compared to Jorge Posada. Opposing batters have hit just .221/.307/.352 against Burnett with Molina behind the plate compared to .270/.353/.421 with Posada receiving him. Supposedly the difference is due in part to Burnett’s lack of confidence in Posada’s ability to block his sharp curve in the dirt, which results in Burnett failing to break the pitch off properly when throwing to Posada. Burnett led the league in wild pitches, and one would assumes a certain percentage of those were pitches Burnett thought Posada should have blocked.

Burnett’s breaking point seemed to come in his August 12 start, when, with Posada catching, he uncorked three wild pitches then refused to talk about the issue after the game, saying bruskly, “I’d rather not talk about the wild pitches.” Up to that game, Posada caught 13 of Burnett’s starts while Molina, Francisco Cervelli, and Kevin Cash caught the other ten, five of them coming when Posada was on the disabled list. After that August 12 start, Posada caught just three more of Burnett’s starts, while Molina caught seven. Burnett didn’t thrown another wild pitch after August 12, but two of the three times he pitched to Posada he was rocked, giving up nine runs in five innings to the Red Sox on August 22, and six runs in 5 1/3 innings to the lowly Orioles on September 1. Those were the last two Burnett starts caught by Posada.

That’s why Joe Girardi is sitting a .285/.363/.522 hitter in a playoff game in favor of a man who has hit .217/.273/.298 in 406 at-bats over the last two seasons. I believe Posada himself said it best when he said, in reaction to the news that Molina would be starting, “I just hope we win that game.” Burnett’s need for Molina behind the plate only adds to the pressure he’ll be feeling tonight in his first career postseason start (he was out following Tommy John surgery when his Marlins beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series). The contract may not matter tonight, but Burnett will by trying to live up to it.

As for how he did in the regular season, Burnett’s aggregate line was actually no better than the no-name Twins sophomore he’ll face tonight:

A.J. Burnett: 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.01 K/BB, 33 GS, 21 QS
Nick Blackburn: 4.03 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.39 K/BB, 33 GS, 19 QS

Those lines are damn similar, with Blackburn holding the edge in the three key rate stats, which just goes to show how overrated Burnett really is. As for the 27-year-old Blackburn, his final 2009 line is almost an exact match for his 2008 rookie campaign, which means the Twins can now expect this sort of production from him. Blackburn’s WHIP is high because he led the league in hits allowed. Burnett’s is high because he led the league in walks with a career-high 97. That is also why A.J.’s K/BB is so low (because of all those walks, Burnett’s WHIP and K/BB this year were his worst since 2003, when he made just four starts).

Of course, Burnett and Blackburn are far from similar pitchers, as their strikeout and walk rates reveal:

Burnett: 8.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
Blackburn: 4.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

Better all those walks and strikeouts than all those hits, but you’d rather see a pitcher keep his opponents off the bases altogether.

Both pitchers finished the regular seaosn strong. In his last four starts (all with Molina catching), Burnett posted a 1.88 ERA, struck out 28 men in 24 innings, and allowed just one home run. In his last four starts, Blackburn posted a 1.65 ERA and walked just one man in 27 1/3 innings.

Blackburn last faced the Yankees on May 16. He took a 4-3 lead into the eighth inning of that game only to let the Yankees tie it up in that inning (and ultimately win it in extras). Burnett faced the Twins twice this year, both times allowing just two runs in six-plus innings, but walking ten in those 13 frames.

The Twins have made one tweak to their lineup tonight. Jason Kubel is DHing, Denard Span is in right, and Carlos Gomez is in centerfield and batting in place of the team’s no-name DH platoon. Alex suggests this is because the Twins want to run on Burnett, but while A.J. allowed 23 steals on the year, he and his catchers caught 34 percent of attempting basestealers, that compared to a 25 percent league average and Jose Molina and Jorge Posada’s matching (yes, matching) 28 percent throw-out rates.

Since I left them out of my initial preview, here are the ALDS rosters:

Minnesota Twins

2009 Record: 87-78 (.534)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 86-77 (.528)

Manager: Ron Gardenhire
General Manager: Bill Smith

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (93/93)

1B – Michael Cuddyer (R)
2B – Nick Punto (S)
SS – Orlando Cabrera (R)
3B – Matt Tolbert (R)
C – Joe Mauer (L)
RF – Jason Kubel (L)
CF – Denard Span (L)
LF – Delmon Young (R)
DH – Jose Morales (S)/Brendan Harris (R)

Bench:

R – Carlos Gomez (CF)
R – Mike Redmond (C)
S – Alexi Casilla (IF)
R – Brendan Harris (IF)/S – Jose Morales (C)

Rotation:

L – Brian Duensing
R – Nick Blackburn
R – Carl Pavano
R – Scott Baker

Bullpen:

R – Joe Nathan
R – Matt Guerrier
L – Jose Mijares
R – Jesse Crain
L – Francisco Liriano
R – Jon Rauch
L – Ron Mahay

Key injuries:

1B – Justin Morneau (stress fracture in lower back)
3B – Joe Crede (herniated disc in lower back)
RHP – Kevin Slowey (wrist surgery–bone chips)
LHP – Glen Perkins (shoulder tendonitis)
RHP – Boof Bonser (labrum and rotator cuff surgery)
RHP – Pat Neshek (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Denard Span (LF)
R – Orlando Cabrera(SS)
L – Joe Mauer (C)
L – Jason Kubel (DH)
R – Michael Cuddyer (RF)
R – Delmon Young (LF)
S – Jose Morales/R – Brendan Harris (DH)
S – Nick Punto (2B)

* * *

New York Yankees

2009 Record: 103-59 (.636)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (.586)

Manager: Joe Girardi
General Manager: Brian Cashman

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Yankee Stadium 2.0 (93/93)

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Nick Swisher (S)
CF – Melky Cabrera (S)
LF – Johnny Damon (L)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

L – Brett Gardner (CF)
L – Eric Hinske (4C)
S – Jerry Hairston Jr. (UT)
R – Jose Molina (C)
R – Francisco Cervelli (C)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Phil Hughes
L – Phil Coke
R – Joba Chamberlain
R – Alfredo Aceves
L – Damaso Marte
R – David Robertson
R – Chad Gaudin

Key injuries:

RHP – Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder surgery)
OF – Xavier Nady (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Johnny Damon (LF)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
L – Melky Cabrera (CF)

There are still some questions that need to be answered, chief among them whether or not David Robertson will be available and effective by season’s end, but prompted by Joe Girardi’s use of Bruney and Jonathan Alabaladejo last night and Brian Cashman’s comments about Joba Chamberlain (coming up), I thought I’d weigh in on the subject.

First, here are Cashman’s comments on Joba via Pete Caldera’s blog:

He needs to declare himself. He’s no different than anyone else. Everybody loves his tenacity,but we’re going to take the best 10 guys. There’s no assumptions there. He’s put himself in a position where the manager has to make a decision that there’s not one guy ahead of him that he needs to give the ball to. He might not realize it, but he’s in competition with any number of guys to take the ball.

Also relevant to Joba’s situation is the fact that the Yankees, assuming they finish with the best record in the league, will be able to chose which of the two ALDS schedules they’ll play. One would require a normal four starters, but the other includes and extra off-day and would allow them to use just three starters in the first round. Given how Chamberlain has pitched of late, I’m guessing they’ll go with the three-starter scenario.

While I would understand the team trying to send a message to Joba by leaving him off the ALDS roster (while simultaneously allowing him to pitch simulated games to stay ready for the ALCS), I’d be surprised to see them pass up the chance to use him out of the bullpen in the ALDS.

Cashman’s quote indicates that the Yankees will bring just ten pitchers to the ALDS, which should result in something like this:

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
L – Andy Pettitte
R – A.J. Burnett

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Phil Hughes
L – Phil Coke
R – Alfredo Aceves
R – Joba Chamberlain
L – Damaso Marte
R – Chad Gaudin

Marte has allowed a run in just one of his eight appearances since returning from the DL. In those eight appearances, he hasn’t allowed any of his ten inherited runners to score, hasn’t allowed a home run, and has struck out six in 5 1/3 innings against two walks. Gaudin, whose start tonight could significantly reinforce or undermine his chances for making the postseason roster, has a 3.68 ERA as a Yankee and can be an effective long-man in case of an early exit by a starter, a deep extra-inning game, or can eat innings in a blowout.

Note that David Robertson is currently rehabbing a sore elbow and was last seen playing catch at 60 feet. If he’s able to return effectively during before the season ends, he could bounce Marte, Gaudin, or even Chamberlain from the roster.

So, if the Yankees are only taking ten pitchers, who are their 15 position players? First the starting nine:

1B – Mark Teixeira
2B – Robinson Cano
SS – Derek Jeter
3B – Alex Rodriguez
C – Jorge Posada
RF – Nick Swisher
CF – Melky Cabrera
LF – Johnny Damon
DH – Hideki Matsui

Then the top bench guys:

CF – Brett Gardner
OF – Eric Hinske
UT – Jerry Hairston Jr.
C – Jose Molina

That leaves two spots, which is where you might find a third catcher (Francisco Cervelli) a bonus speed-and-defense player (Freddy Guzman), or an extra infielder (Ramiro Peña). Given the lack of opportunities given to Shelly Duncan since his recall, I don’t think he’s being considered as a right-handed pinch-hitting option. By that same token, Guzman has only appeared in two games thus far, suggesting that he’s not being seriously considered either. It could be that one of those spots goes to a healthy Robertson, giving the Yankees 11 pitchers and an eight-man bullpen in the ALDS.

There are 11 games left on the Yankees’ regular season schedule, including tonight’s. That’s enough time for those last two bench players to make themselves known or for certain relievers to pitch themselves on or off the roster. Alabaladejo and Bruney did themselves no favors last night. We’ll see if Gaudin can do better tonight.