Light rain fell on the first inning. Curtis Granderson walked and was eager to get into position to draw first blood. He tried to steal second as Cano popped out, and then doubled down and ran again as Alex Rodriguez was working his count. Granderson beat the throw, but his foot hiccuped on the damp dirt and delayed touching the bag for a split second. It was enough time for Ian Kinsler to snatch the ball and slap a tag, and enough of an incongruity to confuse the umpire into a blown call. As the replay clearly showed otherwise, the announcers congratulated the umpire for getting it right. That was it for the sound.

The Rangers jumped onto the scoreboard in the first inning, again. This was the fourth time in the series they scored in the first inning. The Yankees have put nothing on the board in the first inning all postseason. With two-strikes on the leadoff hitter, Phil Hughes couldn’t sneak a fastball up and in. Elvis Andrus shot it through an heavily shifted outfield and pulled into second with an easy double. Josh Hamilton singled when Hughes again tried to go up and in, but missed badly up and out over the plate. Washington, fearing the double play, put Hamilton in motion and when Vlad grounded to second and the Yankees needed two outs to prevent the run from scoring, they could only muster one.

Lewis held the Yankees hitless through four. Curtis Granderson worked two walks, but was erased on the bases both times. In the fifth inning, Alex Rodriguez doubled, his second hard-hit ball of the game. He moved to third as Lance Berkman flew out to the warning track.

That brief instant, when Berkman’s shot flew into the night was the only happy moment of the game for the Yankees. It looked like a 2-1 lead was in reach, but Josh Hamilton tracked it down. Alex scored on a ball that hit Nick Swisher and bounced away, but the umpires missed it. That’s the second time they’ve missed Nick Swisher getting hit in the leg. Both times it cost the Yankees an out, as Swisher couldn’t do anything as the at bat continued.

In the fifth inning, the game fell apart. Much like the sixth inning of Game Four, the Yankees faced a relatively benign one-on, one-out situation. An intentional walk to a left-handed batter to gain a platoon advantage raised the stakes and the Rangers held the trump. Vlad Guerrero ripped the game-changing double on the hangy-i-est of curve balls. After Robertson replaced Hughes, Nelson Cruz ripped the season-ending homer on the flattest of fastballs.

Hughes hung a few curve balls and was up in the zone with his fastball too often. He didn’t give the Yankees what they needed tonight, but since the Yankees only got three hits tonight, who could have given them what they needed? The Yankees were in this game as long as the pitching was perfect. The Rangers hitters are too hot; perfection was never an option.

From the point where it was 1-1, with the Yankees proud owner of two shiny doubles in one inning, it was hard to imagine the game would be effectively over a few minutes later. The Yankees managed one more hit the rest of the way. Kerry Wood got in trouble in the seventh, and Girardi called his third and fourth intentional walks of the night. The Rangers still plated another run to set the score in stone at 6-1. Recapping the Yankee offense from the sixth through the ninth is too depressing to endeavor. You’ve seen better wood from the “before” guys in Viagra ads.

At this point, I had one request from the baseball gods. Do not let the stink of this game get on Mariano Friggin Rivera. They obliged. Mariano threw a scoreless, meaningless inning and for a few outs, if you squinted, you could turn the Rangers’ “6″ into a “0″ and imagine better times.

There’s not much shame losing any best-of-seven series. Texas has good players and won their fair share of games. They beat a very good Rays team before the Yankees. They are worthy American League Champions. But the Yankees did not just get beat by the Rangers. They got blown off the field. For a six game series, it was about as lopsided as I have ever seen.

When the Yankee season ends, that’s the start of my winter. And the only kind winter I enjoy is one wrapped up in World Championship. Things were put off with baseball as the excuse. Dentist? Hard to schedule until I know when the Yankees play. Dinner with friends? Are they Yankee fans? Yes, well they’re busy too. No? I don’t want to see them until after the Yankees win. The weight of the world comes crashing in, and there’s no good reason to keep it out.

This is not the time for a review of the season. But with no division title, no pennant, and a really poor showing in this final game of the year, no matter our conclusions, the 2010 Yankees are not going down in franchise history as anything special – the curse of being the Yankees is that the minor successes of 2010 will be completely ignored.

I hope it will be a team that is skipped over, as we track along to more championships, and not one that stands out as the start of a long, bleak drought as the players age into mediocrity and the team cannot replenish their bank of stars. This hurts, but it could be as early as next year that the empire regroups and strikes back – the blessing of being the Yankees is that they are the only team that intends to win the World Series every year. And sometimes, they do.

Season is on the line once again tonight for the Yanks. Win, and they force a Game 7, lose, and they go home.

Here’s the line up:

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Robinson Cano 2B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Lance Berkman 1B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada C
Marcus Thames DH
Brett Gardner LF

I say Berkman is the hero should the Yanks win.

Nothing else to add but the usual (this time with feeling):

Let’s Go Yan-Kees!

Tonight, down in Texas, where the weather is sure to be more hospitable for playing baseball, Phil Hughes and the Yanks look to extend their season.

The Rangers, of course, look to advance to the Whirled Serious for the first time in franchise history.

No pressure…

This one hurts but the season isn’t over yet and self-pity won’t get us anywhere. CC goes at 4, and there is hope. Let’s not act like those so-called fans who fled from the Stadium early the past two nights. Win or lose, rain or shine, we’ll be here, root-root-rootin’ for the home team.

I’m a pretty calm baseball watcher these days. That’s what happens when you cover the team for a while, or when you’ star to mentally write up the action while it’s still happening, or take notes… you just get more detached. I’m not in the locker room anymore so I don’t have to smother my inner fan with a pillow, but my inner fan has long since taken to self-censorship. I am usually pretty even-keeled about the Yankees these days.

But not always.

I’m all twitchy about tonight’s game, more than I have been in a long time — years — and I don’t know why. The Yankees won the World Series just last year; if they don’t make it this year I’m okay with that. For whatever reason, though, this game is getting to me. I’m having friends over tonight, to watch with me; I don’t want to be alone with A.J. Burnett.

Longtime readers will recall that I have a Bernie Williams bobblehead doll — my only Yankee bobblehead — which, during big games, I often move around my studio apartment until I find a “lucky spot.” Laugh all you want, but would the Yankees have won the World Series last year if the Bernie bobblehead hadn’t been nestled under my bed (after the freezer lost its luckiness)? I guess we’ll never know. Anyway, I haven’t bothered with the Bernie bobblehead pretty much all year, but I’m pretty sure he’ll be shifting around quite a bit tonight.

Here we go… hold onto something.

Cliff Lee vs. Andy Pettitte–let’s chat. No matter how Lee fares tonight, and I assume he’ll pitch well once again, I’ve got a bad feelin’ about Andy.

Am I just being dramatic? My Spidey Sense is tinglin’.

[Picture by: galvarez51]

Splitsville. Under normal circumstances, that’s not a bad outcome opening a best-of-seven series on the road. But facing Cliff Lee in Game Three disrupts normal circumstances. In Game Two, Phil Hughes got pounded, the Yankee offense could not turn base-runners into run-scorers, and the Rangers evened the ALCS at one game apiece with a 7-2 victory.

Texas scratched out a really grimy run in the first inning. Elvis Andrus tapped a bounder over the pitcher’s mound and Phil Hughes deflected it into no-man’s-land behind the rubber. He stole second, and maybe even was safe. I don’t know because TBS only replayed a few times and never found the money shot which would tell me for sure.

(Why is it that I saw the Buster Posey tag-out 50 times and Lance Berkman’s strike three 150 times, but this call was just brushed aside? The media has decided that the blown calls are not acceptable, but when picking which calls to grouse about, they carefully choose the calls that support the narrative they wish to endorse. Lance Berkman took strike three, which was trumpeted from here to eternity, but only a handful of those reports included the other bad calls that went against Berkman in the very same at bat.)

Under duress, Hughes unleashed his best stuff of the game as he struck out Michael Young, Vlad Guerrero and Nelson Cruz. He was unlucky to walk Josh Hamilton after a tough battle and a missed strike three, and because Andrus had also stolen third base, that put the Rangers in a position to get creative on the bases. They tried to trade an out for a run (which I thought was a somewhat-desperate idea with long-ball threat Nelson Cruz at the plate) but the Yankees called an aggressive play and Cano returned Posada’s throw to sender late and wide and Andrus had drawn first blood.

I assume this was a predetermined play because Cano took the throw in front of the bag and threw back to Posada without hesitation, and every team I’ve ever played in every level from Little League on up predetermines what to do when there are runners on first and third. If it was improvised, I thought it was an OK decision from Posada, as sweating one run in the first inning is wussified, and a terrible decision by Cano, because he was unable to prevent the run from scoring and he allowed the inning to continue with one of the Rangers’ most dangerous hitters in the box.

The Yankees looked very dangerous in the top of the second. Cano almost erased the deficit with a wall-scraper, and with two runners on, Lance Berkman made a bid for extra-bases with a rocket to right. Nelson Cruz was able to corral both blasts and the Yankees got nothing for their troubles. But since Hughes had struck out the side in the first and the Yankees had clobbered the ball in the second, Yankees fans had reason for optimism.

That feeling did not survive the bottom of the second. Hughes missed badly to David Murphy and he put it off the face of the second deck in right field. When I saw David Murphy was batting third for the Rangers when the Yankees visited in September, I was reassured that the Rangers were pretty crappy. Then Texas swept the Yankees and here he is doing a lot of damage in the ALCS.

Hughes kept missing spots and the Rangers kept making him pay. He cranked up the extra-base machine and served up five doubles and triple for five more runs and put the game out of reach for even the Yankee bats. I don’t take much issue with Girardi’s moves, though I know he has his detractors here, but why Hughes was still pitching in the fifth inning I’ll never understand. He was getting hit hard from all comers and the Yankees were going to have chances if they kept the score within sniffing distance.

To be fair though, the Yankee offense did not ride to the rescue today and maybe even holding the Rangers at five wouldn’t have mattered. The Yankees had 14 base runners, but only two of them crossed the plate. The Yankees lacked the requisite big hit and fortunate timing. For instance, Cano crushed the ball four times for a double and homer (and two warning-track outs), but he stranded four runners in crunch time.

For most of the game, The Yankees had the donut offense working for them – a big hole in the middle. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira couldn’t extend or finish the rallies. If those guys were contributing, I think it would have been another fun night. Hopefully they’re saving it for Cliff Lee.

Keeping the Yankee rallies in check for the first five-plus innings was Colby Lewis. He was pitching in Japan last year. This is what at least Hiroshima Carp fan thought of him:

Methinks steroids are not yet en vogue in Hiroshima, because schlubby Colby Lewis should not evoke this kind of nightmarish imagery. Nor should the Yankees be worried about facing him again in the series. If the Yankees return to Texas for Game 6, they will knock him around. They were on him today, and hopefully they’ll turn the scoreboard crooked if they face him again. The Yankees also threatened against the bullpen, but without the breakthrough heroics of Game One.

The only worrisome aspect of this loss was Phil Hughes and his total lack of command. He let up seven hits with two strikes. He’s got to polish those guys off. Why was he crisp and unhittable against Minnesota and throwing batting practice today? I think it’s just a different quality opponent mixed with the inconsistencies of a young, possibly fatigued pitcher. I think it’s possible he’s got a good game in him if needed in Game 6, but I would not be surprised to see him struggle again.

The Yankees now head back to the Bronx and prepare for Cliff Lee. They’re sending Andy Pettitte up against him, so by no means should we paint them as lambs to the slaughter. I’m excited for the game and for some ridiculous reason have a good feeling about it. I don’t think the Yankees will really hurt Lee, but I like their chances to come out of the game with a win. If the Yanks lose that one, I’ll change my stripes for the rest of the series, but until then, bring it on, Cliff.

It was a good ‘un.

Here are some fearless ALCS predictions from the crew at Bronx Banter.

First of all, I predict that I’ll have worked myself up into a state of near fury/exhaustion before the first pitch is thrown tonight. I’ve got nothing against Texas. I’ve never been there, other than a stop at the Dallas airport, but mostly, I admire Texas. But I predict that I’ll be cursing it up-and-down for the duration of the series. The sight of former president Bush will be fodder enough to get me going I figure.

I also predict that my wife will have had it up to hear with me by Saturday night. 

As much as it bothers me to say, I think the Yanks will win the series. At least they should. The thought of them losing…no, there’s no way to make that palatable. Ron Washington is cool, sure, and I’ve got nothing against Michael Young. I’ve always loved Vlady. But collectively, the Rangers come across as a college team, youthful spirit, antler-horns,  hollering, rah-rah. And why shouldn’t they next to the business-like Bombers? Still, that doesn’t mean I have to find it “refreshing.” 

I figure Mo is going to blow one game and the Yanks will beat Lee.  Oh, and if A.J. Burnett gets a start, he’ll do okay.

The Rangers will steal at will against Posada.

I don’t have a feeling about Alex Rodriguez but he’s due to catch fire and be a monster. He was terrific down the stretch. I’d be as geeked as the next guy if he goes on a tear.

Also, I fear Nelson Cruz.

Matt Blankman:

Yankees in 5. Superstition makes me nervous calling for a Yankee victory in fewer than 6 games, but really, if my thoughts and actions have such little impact on my own life, they can’t possibly affect a major league baseball game. The Yankees will drop one in Texas, find a way to win Cliff Lee’s start, and win the pennant in the Bronx. While I’m reading tea leaves, I see another effective start for Hughes, at least one Yankee bullpen implosion and some big hits from Mr. Cano. Also, look for some creative Bronx cheers for Cliff Lee – it’s not often you have to boo a guy you’re simultaneously wooing for next season.

Jon DeRosa:

I predict that the most annoying Ranger batter will be Michael Young, most annoying pitcher will be a tie between the twoDdarrens, and all three of them will be eclipsed by Nolan Ryan, who will be on camera so often that he’ll be the number-two most-annoying sports figure this fall (Nobody’s touching Favre. execpt Favre, obviously).

Diane Firstman:

In no particular order…

Derek Jeter will be replaced by something with greater mobility and range …. Dalek Jeter.

Nelson Cruz’s “Boomstick” will be seized as a “weapon of run production”.

Even prior to his Game 3 start, Cliff Lee will use his extraordinary abilities to sense that there are more than the supposed 33 miners in that Chilean mine, and fly his “invisible jet” to Chile to assist in the rescue of two more miners.

Jorge Posada will be caught in a rundown . . . by Bengie Molina.

The Steinbrenner Memorial will gain sentience during the 7th-inning stretch in game 3. Its eyes will start to glow bright red, and the mouth will move, singing “God Bless America”. Josh Hamilton will then be vaporized by beams from the memorial’s eyes.

Joe Girardi will relieve A.J. Burnett during the fifth inning of game 4, and bring in the XXL Chalupa.

Bruce Markusen:

Ever since the Rangers eliminated the Rays, all I’ve read and heard about is the looming presence of Cliff Lee. Well, I think the Lee Factor is being overstated. At best, he will make two starts in the Championship Series, and that’s only if the Rangers extend the series to seven games. Lee is obviously very good, but he’s not even the best pitcher in the American League, nor in this particular postseason. And the Yankees have reached Lee in recent memory, including last year’s Game Five loss in the World Series.

It will be important for the Yankees to win in six, so as to avoid having to face Lee on the road in a decisive seventh game. I think the Yankees can do it, because of the advantages they have in pitching depth, lineup strength at the bottom, and of course, the closer’s role. The Yankees’ lineup is so deep that it will give the Rangers’ bullpen repeated matchup problems; Ron Washington had little confidence in using his relievers, outside of Neftali Feliz, in the Division Series, so that trend says a lot about his mostly inexperienced corps of relievers.

A lot has been made of the Rangers’ speed against Jorge Posada, but the Rays would have posed an even bigger problem because they have even more speed than Texas. The Rangers have one big-time base stealer in leadoff man Elvis Andrus, but he was also caught 15 times in 47 attempts and is susceptible to slumps; against good pitching, he can be kept off the bases. Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz have good speed, but they are not blazers. I think the Rangers’ speed can be controlled.

So what do I expect? The Rangers are a very good team, but the Yankees had the better record, against tougher competition, and I think that should hold forth. I expect a good, competitive series, much like last year’s ALCS against the Angels, with the Yankees winning in six.

Emma Span:

Yankees 3, Rangers 3: In Game 7, Cliff Lee ascends to a higher inter-dimensional plane midway through the third inning, and Bud Selig declares a tie.

Hank Waddles:

The funny thing about sports is that it only takes a game or two for the conventional wisdom to swing around a hundred and eighty degrees. It wasn’t too long ago that people were expecting the Yankees to bow out of these playoffs early. They were too old, the starting rotation was a disaster, and — oh, yeah — they were really old. After three games against the Twins and six days resting, they’re suddenly the overwhelming favorites to reach the World Series. It would be easy for me to just agree with everyone and say something safe like “Yankees in 7,” but that would be boring. Here’s what will happen.

Game 1
Do you really think CC will have two clunkers in a row? Not likely. Eight innings from Sabathia, one from Mo, turn out the lights.

Game 2
I fully realize that any non-Yankee fan reading this next statement will vomit all over his keyboard, but here it is: Phil Hughes strikes me as a true Yankee. There. I said it. He just seems to get it. He says the right things when he wins, and he says the right things when he loses. Unlike other guys on the staff, he stands up and takes the heat when he pitches poorly and doesn’t try to convince us that he actually pitched well, even though we all watched and know he didn’t. (I’m looking at you, Joba.) But back to Game 2. Hughes will be good enough to win, maybe even great. Yanks win this one, too.

Game 3
I love Andy Pettitte, but he’s pitching against Cliff Lee. Lee will give up a lead-off single to Jeter, a blooper that arcs just over the infield. Then he’ll retire everyone else. His line will look like this: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 27 Ks.

Game 4
Now here’s where I get a little crazy. A.J. Burnett will win this game. Stick with me, though. I know he’s got 15 losses. I know that if his ERA were a holiday it would be Memorial Day. But over the past two years Burnett has never ever pitched the way I expected him to on a given night. My expectation here, of course, is that he’ll implode in the second inning and give way to a conga line of Dustin Moseley, Sergio Mitre, and Ed Whitson. But to paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, if every instinct I’ve ever had about A.J. Burnett has been wrong, then the opposite would have to be correct. A.J. Burnett will win this game.

Game 5
CC closes out the series with another dominant win, wrapping up his second straight ALCS MVP in the process. But here’s the interesting thing. As Sabathia leaves the mound to tumultuous applause with one out in the ninth, the cameras follow him as heads to the Yankee dugout and finds a seat next to… Cliff Lee! Figuring there’s no need to proceed with the usual “we’ll evaluate everything in the off-season” charade, Brian Cashman drew up a contract during the seventh inning stretch and Lee will ink it as soon as the final out is recorded. Cashman, of course, will deny all this, but he will let slip that a press conference has been scheduled for early December.

So there you have it. Yanks in 5.

Will Weiss:

Yankees in 5

Reason: Much has been made of the Yankees being 1-4 against the Rangers in Texas in September. If you trot out such lockdown relievers as Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre, you’d be 1-4 against any team with a respectable offense, let alone the Rangers. At least there wasn’t a Royce Ring sighting.

The news of Hughes pitching Game 2 positions the Yankee rotation to be L-R-L-R-L-R-L if it goes the distance, which keeps the Rangers’ lineup
off-balance. You can see the method behind Girardi’s madness. Hughes has yet to allow an earned run in three appearances in Arlington, amassing a 2-0 record, a WHIP of 0.46, and holding the Rangers to a .064 batting average. Confidence has to be high. Plus, it gives Pettitte extra days to rest the groin. It’s conceivable that the Yankees return home with a 2-0 series lead, which could mean AJ Burnett’s Game 4 could mean a sweep, or put them in position to go up 3-1. At that point, I like my chances with CC at home to lock it down.

[Drawing by Larry Roibal]

On the one hand, I love the playoffs.  After living and dying through 162 games, your reward as a fan is to watch your team as one of eight — and now four — still in contention for the world championship.  On the other hand, I hate the playoffs.  My TiVo is suddenly not good enough, so I have to plan my world around a baseball game being played three thousand miles away.  Heaven forbid I should miss a single pitch.  How bad is it?  A couple days ago my wife suggested that we schedule a date night for next Thursday.  The good husband answered quickly, “Sure, sounds good.”  But the bad husband inside was secretly calculating: Friday, Saturday, off-day Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, off-day Thursday… No problem! Look away.  I am hideous.

A.J. Burnett is also hideous, but rumor has it he’ll be pitching in this series, a fact that by itself gives the Texas Rangers a pretty good shot at advancing to the World Series.  The more I think about that, the more I think about belt-high fastballs and looping curve balls and line drives back through the box, the more worried I get.  If I were in charge, I’d pitch Burnett against Cliff Lee in Game 3, essentially conceding that game to the Rangers.  As the rotations stand now, it almost looks like Girardi is conceding both Games 3 and 4, meaning that Sabathia had better win the opener and Phil Hughes had better win Game 2.

What if they don’t?  What if Josh Hamilton comes to Yankee Stadium and remembers that Home Run Derby in the old Stadium?  What if Elvis Andrus gets on base seven or eight times and steals fourteen or sixteen bases?  What if Ian Kinsler plays like Ian Kinsler again?  What if Cliff Lee gets to pitch twice?

If you want to know what I really think, the Yankees will win this series, but it won’t take a miracle for the Rangers to win.  I just hope that when I’m sitting in the movie theater on Thursday night, I’m still looking forward to the World Series.

“We were alert out there tonight,” said Texas Manager Ron Washington. “We were ready to play ball. I’m not saying Tampa wasn’t, but we were ready to play ball tonight – and it showed.”

(N.Y. Times)

So it’s the Rangers–who out-Rayed the Rays last night–to take on the Yanks for a chance to go to the Whirled Serious (Steven Goldman says, have no fear, the Rays will be back next year). This is a more balanced Texas team than we’ve seen in the past. They are spirited and fully capable of beating the Yanks (and for all the Rangers news that’s fit to link, check out the Newberg Report). Still,  I like the Bombers’ chances. I’m curious to see if there is any rust for the ol’ Yanks come Friday night. The one thing that can’t happen is coming back to New York down 0-2 to face Cliff Lee. That said, I’ve got confidence in our boys.

Whadda ya hear, whadda say?

Now, we know that the Rangers are reluctant to use Lee on short rest, but perhaps young Price won’t be subject to the same limitations. Yet, moving up Price, or Lee for that matter, doesn’t change anything. Whether they pitch Saturday (three days) or Monday (five days), they’re getting two starts in the seven games. If they pitch on regular rest on Monday, they have the benefit of their usual recovery time, and the manager retains the option of asking them to come back on short rest for Game 6 or regular rest for Game 7.

After the first four games, determining the matchups becomes difficult and depressing. Given Andy Pettitte’s fragile physical state, it seems spectacularly unlikely he would pitch on short rest for Game 5. That means A.J. Burnett or Ivan Nova or Waite Hoyt or someone who wouldn’t ideally start is going if Game 5 is necessary. One alternative, and it’s probably not a good idea or even a realistic one, is Hughes pitching Game 2 . This would open up the possibility of shis tarting Game 5 on three day’s rest. Then Pettitte would pitch Game 3 and would line up to pitch in the seventh game if, for some reason, Sabathia couldn’t make another short-rest start.

My college roommate hailed from Edina, Minnesota. Eric was a catcher with an arm-shaped cannon (he’s unavailable to suit up for the Yankees Wednesday night) and remains a die-hard Twins fan. When we played stickball in the park in the sweltering June heat, he wore a turtleneck. When he went out to retrieve the Washington Post from a snow pile in February, he wore shorts and sandals. These Minnesotans are built differently than us New Yorkers. We save our shorts for the summer and bundle up in righteous indignation when it snows.

When the Yankees fell into their September funk, I began envisioning a brief, chilly, miserable series in Minnesota, with their ecstatic fans stomping their flip-flops and Robinson Cano inappropriately smirking from within the latest Gore-Tex innovation in hood-masks as he went oh-fer eight. Weather reports from Minnesota predict sun and warmth, so the Yankees will luck out in the first two games of the ALDS weather-wise. Hopefully it’s the first of many breaks that will go their way, because if they don’t catch some futher good fortune, this is the year the Twins get over the hump and beat the Yankees in the ALDS.

Minnesota set the tone for their 2010 season on March 21st. That’s the day they signed their franchise-player and reigning American League MVP to an eight-year, $184 million contract. The contract was almost Yankee-like in terms of length and amount. It was a commitment to the player, sure, but it was also a commitment to the team and the fan base. In concert with opening a new stadium, the organization was assuring any doubters that the Twins intended to compete with the big spenders.

It was only a few years ago that the Twins desperately peddled Johan Santana to the Yankees and Red Sox. After realizing they were being used as the target in an organizational pissing contest, they turned, dazed and confused, and accepted whatever crappy deal was still left on the table from the Mets. Santana has been good for the Mets, but the Twins are probably thrilled that they’re not the ones paying him right now, with or without shoulder surgery. But I can’t believe that either the fans, players or the management was happy about being the shuttlecock in a game of badminton between Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein.

Now the Twins have a new outlook, beginning with their new ballpark and continuing with a payroll that added 50% from 2009. The payroll still doesn’t come within half of the Yankees’, but for the players and fans in Minnesota, it must feel liberating. It must feel like they have finally joined the big time. And I think this optimism and confidence will fuel the upcoming ALDS. It’s their house; it’s their time.

Eric just returned from a trip to Target Field, and he witnessed a notable shift in attitude from last year. In 2009, as the Twins staggered across the finish line in game 163, the fans were content with just making it to the ALDS, and were resigned that the looming Yankees, rested and ready, presented a likely insurmountable challenge. This year, the opposite is true. During their last homestand, he spoke to fans that were begging for the Yankees. In his sense, the Twins used to be a JV-squad sacrificing itself for the Varsity in a tune-up before their big game, but now those JV players are ready to be the Varsity.

It’s tempting to dismiss our conversation as “fan-think.” How much do professional athletes reflect or adopt the attitudes of their fan base? Do the players really care about the payroll? Do they even care about payback? Do they care about having home-field advantage? And even if they do, how much can it effect the bottom line? Does any of this matter if Arod hits a 440 foot three-run homer off Liriano in the top of the first Wednesday night? I know we want to quantify this experience into numbers, and leave the speculations on the emotions of the players to the unwashed mainstream, so let’s leave these questions unanswered for the time being and see how the teams stack up against each other and if there are good reasons to favor the Twins apart from the tidal wave of positivity swelling there at the moment. And what preview would be complete without terrible little introductory phrases?

Reason #1 – Bring Back the Baggie

In the first year of Target Field, home runs were scarce. The Twins hit 52 at home and 90 on the road; their opponents were good for a 64 to 91 split. Yet the Twins outscored their opponents 399 to 313 at Target field, and by the much narrower margin of 382 to 358 on the road. Of course it’s normal to play better at home than on the road, even for very good teams. But not-so-hidden in this data is that the Twins don’t rely on home runs to score their runs. At home, where they win at a .654 clip (even better than the Yankees at home), the Twins score almost five runs a game despite hitting very few home runs. The Twins put the ball in play more often than the Yankees, with fewer walks and whiffs and more hits. They play to their park. The Yankees, whose runs scored correlate much more closely with their homers, might be hard pressed for runs in this environment. They only scored six runs in Target Field during a three-game set in May. I don’t like the Yankees chances to win one of two or two of three in Minnesota without the long ball.

Reason # 2 - Gotta Walk Before You Run

When the calendar read Friday the 13th, the moon was full, and the necessary rituals and incantations were performed to conjure Carl Pavano into a Yankee uniform, he only walked 30 men in 145.2 innings. He’s actually gotten better for the Twins. Or to put it another, more-vomit-inducing way, the Yankees paid him $1.3 million per base on balls; in 2010, the Twins paid him about $190k for each walk. The Twins throw strikes. Every starting pitcher that the Yanks are likely to face walked fewer men per nine innings than the Yankees most accurate starter, CC Sabathia. The Yankees were middle of the pack this year in hits and batting average, but third in homers and second in walks. If Target Field eliminates the former, and the Twins pitchers can effectively limit the latter, then the Yankees are going to have to finish off some rallies with hits with runners in scoring position. Shudder.

Reason # 3 – Can Phil Thrive in Five?

The Yankees have a starting pitching dilemma. After CC Sabathia, they have a choice between Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte. It makes sense to start fly-ball-prone Hughes at Target Field, but that lines him up for Games two and five. If the season comes down to a Game five in Minnesota, I’d rather have Andy Pettitte on the mound. So do the Yankees draw up the rotation to give Pettitte two starts or do you hope it doesn’t get that far? Either Hughes will let up a few home runs in Yankee Stadium or be called upon to start the biggest game of his life.

The Twins have no such indecision. They will give the ball to Liriano and Pavano in Minnesota and have some flexibility from that point forward. Due to Liriano’s previous arm trouble, I don’t expect to see him on short rest, but it’s an option for the Twins in Game four if they want it. More importantly, Carl Pavano doesn’t even need to pack his spikes for the flight to New York. He’ll only toe the rubber in front of those who love him (well, those who fervently support him, at least). That’s probably a good thing; the Yanks have a budget and all the extra security guards required for a Pavano-start might have cost an arm (Cliff Lee) and a leg (Carl Crawford).

Reason # 4 – It’s Hard to Find a Good Mechanic

Recent history suggests that teams sputtering (or charging) as the regular season ends don’t necessarily sustain that quality of play into the Postseason. So the fact that one of these teams has managed only two wins in the last ten games can be seen a simple matter of a strong team resting its best player and taking its foot off the gas once the Postseason berth was assured. Much more telling is its 18-12 record in September and October (or its 36-22 record since August). That team is the Twins and I see no reason, provided Mauer is 100%, to dock them for their last ten games.

The Yankees on the other hand, have not taken their foot off the gas. They have removed the wheels and engine and thrown the keys in a briar patch along the side of the road. They have to rebuild the machine, going 9-17, 13-17, or 29-30 to end the year (depending on which arbitrary cut-off you prefer). Since August, they just have not been very good. I don’t think it’s the same thing to end the year with ten bad games and to have a below .500 final two months of the season. Even great teams play poorly for stretches of time. But how long before you re-evaluate the quality of the team? For me, the Yankees are right up against that point of re-evaluation.

I think the above picture is fairly bleak for the Yankees, but I admit a large part of that is a negative reaction to their recent play. In 2000, they showed that a veteran team, a defending Champion, could access a different gear in the Postseason. I also didn’t mention that big-bopper Justin Morneau is out for the ALDS. That makes the Twins less scary than they could be, but he hasn’t been there for the entire second half of the season. The Twins 36-22 record over the last two months come entirely without him. They have had plenty of time to form an identity around the players available to them now, with Jim Thome providing the power. Like when the Thing briefly left the Fantastic Four and they used She-Hulk as temporary muscle. If they end up playing two games at Yankee Stadium, how many home runs will Thome hit? I’d set the over-under number at 2.5.

Many of the excuses the Twins could fall back upon when they faced the Yankees are now obsolete. They have a new state of the art ballpark and are filling it up every night. They don’t have to worry about their star player being sucked into the Yankees’ financial tractor beam. Now the team has to answer the bell and reward the ownership for their investment and their fans for their faith. I can only guess, but I believe these Twins are a credible mirror for their fan base right now: filled with pride, eager to prove themselves against the biggest bully on the block, sensing that things have changed and that this is their time. They will be fired up beyond recognition and will play a fantastic series. I just hope you all have the good sense to look away when Carl Pavano is dancing around like Kenny Rogers circa 2006, celebrating his team’s advancement to the ALCS. Especially if CC Sabathia can’t set the course in Game 1, because then it’s going to be a sweep and that celebration will be at Yankee Stadium.

If all of this wasn’t enough, the Twins have a song. This is not the Super Bowl Shuffle. This is not a song by the Twins, it’s a song about the Twins by Craig Finn of The Hold Steady and the Baseball Project. It’s 2010, and there are only like five famous active rock bands, so the chance that anybody reading this actually knows who The Hold Steady are is pretty remote. But they’re a heckuva a band and Craig is known for name-checking all things Minnesota in his songs and has appeared on stage in a Ron Gardenhire jersey more than once.

I can ignore Craig’s religion in his songs, so I can forgive him his baseball team. Even though The Hold Steady is based out of Brooklyn (which last time I checked, Craig, was in New York Fucking City) and he disses the Yankees repeatedly by spewing the tired refrain that the Twins “don’t buy their titles” (they do now, Craig), what upsets me most is that the Hold Steady got me through last Postseason with their revved up anthem “Stay Positive” which implores, unambiguously, that “We gotta stay positive.” Now, when pessimism encroaches, and I seek solace, I’ll think, oh shit, this is the douchebag that wrote the damn Twins song. So one last time, before Liriano throws the first pitch on Wednesday night and this song is forever ruined, with the big bad Twinkies licking their chops, we gotta stay positive.