Freddy Garcia suffered his first loss since July 15th. (Photo Credit / Darren Calabrese - Canadian Press)

Author’s Note / Excuse: Apologies for the delayed post. If you need further proof that the NFL, not Major League Baseball, is the National Pastime, try getting online between 1 and 4 p.m. on a Sunday to access photos from a baseball game to include in a recap. The requisite sites were performing at speeds not seen since 1997.

Threads in this space, elsewhere in the Blogosphere, the Twitterverse, Facebook — basically anywhere you search for Yankees information — have featured criticism of Joe Girardi for managing passively over the past week and a half. That judgment was typically reserved for his bullpen maneuvering, specifically in the one-run losses in Baltimore, Anaheim and Seattle, and then again in the series opener at Rogers Centre Friday night. Not as prevalent in those threads was that the “A” lineup, while physically present on the field, was doing little to help the winning cause.

Then on Sunday, with the Yankees’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot at five, the starting lineup looked more like one you’d see in mid-March than mid-September. Girardi has stated publicly that he’s been looking for places to give the regulars some rest. The counter, “Win the games, win the division, secure the playoff spot and then rest people.” And so it was that the only regulars in the starting lineup were Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher, A-Rod and J Martin.

The result was a feeble, fundamentally unsound 3-0 defeat that left the Yankees 4-6 on this season-long 10-game, four-city road trip. Brandon Morrow dominated the Yankees, striking out seven and walking only one. The Yankees had five hits, only two of which left the infield. Like in the early going Saturday, they ran themselves out of potential scoring opportunities. In the first inning, with Eduardo Nuñez Nuñez on second and Robinson Canó on first, Canó was thrown out on the tail end of a double steal. Later, in the top of the sixth, Nuñez, who Michael Kay and John Flaherty lauded on the YES telecast during his first at-bat, once again incited fans’ ire by inexplicably trying to turn a single into a double. Nuñez hit a clean single to rightfield. Nuñez tried to catch Jose Bautista napping, but it didn’t work. Bautista fired behind the runner to first base, where Edwin Encarnación fired to second to catch Nuñez by a mile. Inning over, potential rally over. Nuñez’s one-out double in the ninth inning marked the only other time in the game the Yankees had a runner in scoring position.

Meanwhile, Freddy Garcia surrendered three runs on five hits and three walks in 4 2/3 innings, and he made a throwing error that contributed to one of the three runs. In short, Garcia did little to pitch himself into consideration for either five-man rotation over the final two weeks of the regular season, or the playoff rotation.

Other things we learned …

* The Ghost of Raul Valdes, who pitched out of a bases-loaded jam in the seventh, may have shown that he could be the Yankees’ LOOGY over the next two weeks and into the postseason.

* The Yankees’ bullpen, in the last two games, pitched 9 1/3 innings of shutout ball. The group allowed just two hits and walked four — three by Scott Proctor — in that span.

* The Rays are white-hot. They beat up the Red Sox again and are surging toward a September comeback to rival the 2007 Colorado Rockies. The Yankees have a six-game edge over the Rays in the loss column, which may seem cushy with only 10 games left, but this week’s series at Yankee Stadium cannot be taken lightly. Depending on Monday’s result against the Minnesota Twins, sweeping the Rays would clinch that coveted playoff spot for the Yankees, leaving next weekend’s series against the Red Sox open for clinching the division.

This week features the games the regulars get paid the big money to play. Let’s see how the manager and the team respond.

Thank the Baseball Gods for the Guillen family; in a cold quiet winter they bring us sparks and adventure. Yesterday White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen’s son Oney absolutely lit into former White Sox and current Red Sox reliever Bobby Jenks on Twitter. Highlights are many, but include:

hahah memo to bobby jenks get a clue u drink to much and u have had marital problems hugeee ones and the sox stood behind u

they did not air out ur dirty laundry, u came to srping not drinking and then u sucked and started srinking again be a man

be a man and tell the manager or the coaching staff how u feel or the organization when u were with the sox not when u leave

u cried in the managers office bc u have problems now u go and talk bad about the sox after they protected u for 7 years ungrateful

if it wasnt for u and mainly u freddy garcia would have like 17 wins and the sox would have beat the twins …

…oh and yes i remember clearly u blowing a hugee game in 09 and u laughing ur bearded ass off while everyone busting there tail…

…one little story remember when u couldnt handle ur drinking and u hit a poor arizona clubby in the face i do. and later u covered it wit

Im sorry thats ur answer to everything. How can u disrespect ur ex team like that

Uh, yikes. The comments from Jenks that brought this on were obnoxious, but fairly tame in comparison. He told reporters that he wanted “to play for a manager who trusts his relievers, regardless of what’s going on,” and said “Why would I come back to that negativity? I’m looking forward to playing for a manager who knows how to run a bullpen.” He also felt that the White Sox didn’t handle their decision not to re-sign him particularly well, which is debatable, but a common enough sentiment when teams and players part ways.

Jim Margalus of South Side Sox writes,

I wouldn’t be surprised if most, if not all, of what Oney Guillen tweeted about Jenks was true. There were a couple of weird tongue-holding episodes at the end of the season; Jenks creating an uneasy scene by spitting on the clubhouse floor, Kenny Williams saying “there are certain things I’m not going to talk about right now.” To this point, Williams has resisted kicking Jenks out the door, but Oney seems to have filled in at least some of the blanks. None of it was necessary.

OK, nothing Guillen’s middle son does is necessary when it comes to White Sox Business, but this was bringing a grenade to a pillow fight. Jenks only criticized Ozzie the Manager, and that brings only Bobby the Pitcher into play. There’s lots of room for insult there. His attitude, his inconsistent performance, which may have been attributable to his inconsistent conditioning … pick one and hammer away if you please. That’s an eye for an eye, and all in a day’s work for these highly compensated professionals.

That would accomplish far more than taking private information and making it public.

This isn’t the first time Jenks’ personal issues went public; in Jerry Crasnick’s “License to Deal: A Season on the Run With a Maverick Baseball Agent”, Crasnick and Jenks’ former representative Matt Sosnick describe the pitcher as “an agent’s nightmare – the type of player who constantly tests management’s patience and rarely takes responsibility for his actions,” whose “drinking and capacity for self-destruction… soiled just about everything he touched,” a “reclamation project” who “couldn’t be reclaimed.” Ouch again.

I’m sure the Red Sox knew what they were getting into and if Jenks pitches well, as he has in the past, no one on the team or in the stands will care much about the guy’s flaws, whatever they might be. If he doesn’t, though, Boston is not a place where it takes very long for things to get ugly.

Anyway, Oney Guillen’s rant was clearly unprofessional and inappropriate, but in these days of corporate-speak, careful PR men, and dull canned quotes, I’ve gotta say I’m glad somebody is still able to go off the reservation like that.

—

Photo via Chicago Now

According to Peter Gammons, our unfriendly neighbors to the north are close to re-signing Jason Varitek to a two million dollar, one-year deal. Good news for the base stealers of the AL East.

Of course, yesterday Gammons tweeted “Cp L”. Still, this is about the easiest thing in the world to believe. The day the Red Sox don’t offer Jason Varitek a contract is the day we all peer anxiously towards the east to make sure the sun will still be rising there.

***

*Alternate title: Grand Moff Varitek To Re-Sign With Death Star. Yeah. My nerdiness is running amok today. By way of apology, here’s a photo of Jason Varitek and a dolphin.

Don't ask me.

That’s the only word that will do. The Yanks are playing like horsesh**. Jon Lester is a stud and he was in peak form on Saturday, true. Give him credit. But listen, the Yankees have lost four games in a row at home and are doing their best to make us squirm. Final score this afternoon: Red Sox 7, Yanks 3.

They’ve got Dustin Moseley pitching against Clay Buchholz tomorrow night. Anyone inspired with a sudden burst of confidence? Okay, so let’s say they get swept. There will be six games left, Magic Number stuck on stupid at three. You’ve still got to love their chances to make it to October, which looks like it’ll start in Minnie against that sombitch Pavano (the Rays already have a 4-0 first inning lead tonight).

But c’mon now, enough is enough already. The sky isn’t falling yet, of course, but that doesn’t mean we’ve got to be happy about this horsesh**, either.

You might have heard that the Red Sox have been dealing with some injuries this season. Prior to returning Wednesday night, Jacoby Ellsbury had played just nine games all year due to various problems related to broken ribs suffered in an April collision with Adrian Beltre. He’s back, but he might have been the worst hitter in their opening day lineup and was moved to left field this spring because the Red Sox had major concerns about his defense in center. However, Mike Cameron, his intended replacement in center, is back on the DL for the second time this season with an abdominal strain, making Ellsbury the team’s center fielder and leadoff hitter, which may or may not be any better than having Ellsbury back on the DL. That also leaves J.D. Drew, who routinely misses games with a strained this and a sore that, as the only Boston outfielder having a “healthy” season.

Among those who have joined Ellsbury on the DL this season were Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek (both still out with broken feet), Victor Martinez (recently returned), Kevin Youkilis (more than countering Martinez’s return by hitting the DL the day before Cameron with a thumb injury that will require season-ending surgery), Daisuke Matsuzaka (of course), Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz (both recently returned), and Manny Delcarmen (returned, but to low-leverage innings). Did I miss anyone? Boof Bonser doesn’t count, and I’m not sure Mike Lowell does either, though he’s suddenly become a very important player in the wake of Youkilis’s injury.

The good news for Boston fans is that, assuming Jon Lester’s Wednesday night leg cramp isn’t anything, the rotation is back at full strength. Buchholz and Beckett, who start tonight and Sunday, respectively, each enter this series coming off a pair of quality starts. Less encouraging has been the fact that Lester, who pitches Monday, has been off his game for four straight outings, and John Lackey, who faces CC Sabathia on Saturday, has been little more than a league-average-innings eater in his first season with the team. The Sox’s bullpen has been as problematic as the Yankees’, and the pitching staff as a whole, which has surely been undermined by the drop in the quality of team defense resulting from the many injuries to the starting lineup, something unlikely to be helped by Ellsbury’s return, has been below average in keeping runs off the board.

Whatever winning the Red Sox have been doing this season has been due to a few stretches of sharp starting pitching and their lineup, which has been buoyed by David Ortiz’s rejuvination and by a fantastic season by Adrian Beltre, but Youkilis has been the team’s best hitter, and Pedroia was in the top four, and without those two bats, this is a very different ballclub.

The best-case scenario for the Red Sox this weekend is to sweep a four game set in the Bronx and pull within two games of the Yankees for the Wild Card. I don’t see that happening, though the Yankees would be advised to win at least one of the first two as the pitching matchups become more favorable for Boston as the series progresses. The Sox will have 50 games left after this series, enough to overcome any deficit, but if the Yankees simply split, they will have robbed the Sox of a prime opportunity to make up ground and will take control of their rival’s fate by having a six-game lead over the Sox with just six head-to-head games left to play. All of that may take the edge of this series, but it’s worth noting that beating the Rays does the Yankees little good as both teams are likely to make the postseason. It’s burying the second place team in the Wild Card chase that will secure the Yankees’ playoff berth, and that second-place team is the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox

2010 Record: 61-47 (.565)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 60-48 (.556)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark: Fenway Park

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-108, LH HR-85
RH Avg-107, RH HR-95

Who has replaced whom:

• Ryan Kalish (minors) has replaced Kevin Youkilis (DL)
• Jed Lowrie (DL) has replaced Dustin Pedroia (DL)
• Jacoby Ellsbury (DL) has replaced Jeremy Hermida
• Eric Patterson has replaced Jonathan Van Every (minors)
• Kevin Cash has replaced Jason Varitek (DL)
• Scott Atchison and Dustin Richardson (both minors) have replaced Ramon S. Ramirez and Scott Schoeneweis

25-man Roster:

1B – Mike Lowell (R)
2B – Jed Lowrie (S)
SS – Marco Scutaro (R)
3B – Adrian Beltre (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF – Ryan Kalish (L)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Bill Hall (UT)
R – Darnell McDonald (CF)
L – Eric Patterson (OF)
R – Kevin Cash (C)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
L – Jon Lester
R – Daisuke Matsuzaka
R – Clay Buchholz
R – John Lackey

Bullpen:

R – Jon Papelbon
R – Daniel Bard
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Manny Delcarmen
L- Dustin Richardson
R – Scott Atchison
R – Tim Wakefield

15-day DL:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (right thumb)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (broken left foot)
CF – Mike Cameron (abdominal strain)
C – Jason Varitek (broken right foot)

60-day DL:

RHP – Junichi Tazawa (Tommy John surgery)

Typical Lineup:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Marco Scutaro (SS)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Adrian Beltre (3B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
R – Mike Lowell (1B)
L – Ryan Kalish (LF)
S – Jed Lowrie (S)

The lead-up to this quickie two-game set between the Yankees and the Red Sox featured several back stories:

1) The Red Sox were not a threat. They entered Monday night’s action in fourth place, three and a half games behind the Blue Jays, the starting pitching reduced to mediocrity, the bullpen reduced to tatters, and riddled by the combined struggles of David Ortiz and Victor Martinez, and injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury.

“The Red Sox don’t scare me,” so said 1050′s Seth Everett on Sunday. “They’re not a threat. David Ortiz doesn’t scare me. Not even now that he’s started to hit a little bit.”

“It’s not a rivalry right now,” said Mike Francesa. “It’s not a rivalry until the standings dictate that it’s a rivalry.”

To paraphrase Buster Olney, who subbed on “Mike and Mike in the Morning”: “By the end of May, Theo Epstein will evaluate and look at this team and restructure with 2011 in mind.”

Thank you, Cliff Corcoran, for bringing some sanity to the matter and giving the “Sox are dead” sayers a nice punch to the stomach. The Red Sox don’t suck and they proved it. (More on this later.)

2) Because Mariano Rivera hadn’t given up a run to date and was inhumanly infallible at Age 40, the fact that he yielded his first grand slam at home since 1995 and first grand slam since Bill Selby in July of 2002 to blow the save Sunday meant that something was wrong and the end was near. The likes of Olney, Craig Carton, and Mike Francesa all thankfully decried this notion. Olney said Rivera was allowed to have a bad day, Carton pointed to Teixeira’s drop of a line drive that would have ended the inning, and Francesa downplayed the importance of a Sunday game in May against a team the Yankees have owned in recent years.

3) Javier Vazquez is incapable of starting against the Red Sox, regardless of location. Monday morning, stories appeared stating that manager Joe Girardi planned on using Vazquez in the bullpen this week against the Sox and Rays to supplement a start. He struck out Kevin Youkilis on four pitches in the ninth inning — and was the winning pitcher — but even with that appearance, there’s a chance he may not start against the Mets at Citi Field Friday, in favor of the inimitable Sergio Meat Tray. If Vazquez is not good enough as a starter to get the Mets lineup out, in a National League ballpark, then why trot him out to the mound at all? That might be the kind of situation to get his confidence back.

In his postgame presser, Girardi got testy when the words “Javy Vazquez,” “skipped,” and “because of the Red Sox” were used in the same sentence.

“Absolutely not,” Girardi said. “I want to make this clear, OK?” His voice was stern and he was waving his hand in a karate chop motion. “He was not skipped because of that situation. Our bullpen is a mess. I needed a long guy today. We could not activate Chan Ho Park if you didn’t have a long man.”

Fine, but he was still skipped a second time during a Red Sox series. The reporter was right to ask the question. Girardi, to his credit, added that he didn’t want to use Vazquez because he still wanted to be able to start Vazquez on Friday, but with Joba Chamberlain unavailable after getting up twice to warm up on Saturday, and David Robertson unavailable, he had few options. After throwing just four pitches, Vazquez can still go Friday.

4) Nick Johnson will have wrist surgery tomorrow. It’ll be 4-6 weeks before he can pick up a bat, which means he’s likely not going to be back in the lineup until August. August of what year has yet to be determined, but August sounds about right.

_______________________

Raise your hand if after the Yankees sprinted to a 5-0 first-inning lead, which became 5-1 and then 6-1 and then 6-2 following a towering homer by Big Papi, you were comfortable. Really? Me neither.

You were probably less comfortable, then, when Marco Scutaro singled after a seven-pitch at-bat, Dustin Pedroia doubled to cap a 10-pitch at-bat, and J.D. Drew clocked a three-run homer off Phil Hughes to make it 6-5. Me, I felt a sinking feeling when Boone Logan was brought in to face Victor Martinez to start the sixth inning. After Martinez’s first at-bat, Ken Singleton, an accomplished switch hitter in his day, discussed the off splits in Martinez’s switch-hitting line. He was a .165 hitter from the left side and .389 from the right. Somehow, Joe Girardi didn’t get this memo. Martinez was 0-for-2 against Hughes. Batting right-handed against Logan, the inevitable happened. Solo home run, 7-6 Yankees.

When Mark Teixeira popped out to kill the insurance rally in the bottom of the sixth, I received the following e-mail from our esteemed host, Alex Belth: “They need some insurance, here. Sox don’t have great hitters but enough good ones to do better than they’ve done.”

My response: “Chan Ho Park. Jesus Christ…” I thought Girardi was managing like he had no inclination to win the game. It was the seventh inning of a rivalry game, on the verge of blowing a huge lead; not exactly the time to unleash the Chan Ho Experiment.

Somehow, Park got out of the seventh inning unscathed. Prior to the eighth, Alex sent this: “Joba and Mo, take two.” Only Park emerged to pitch the eighth. A note pinged my inbox before I could reply. It was Alex.

“So I guess no Joba. It’ll be a miracle if they get out of the eighth with a lead.” (NOTE: This was before we knew which Yankee relievers were unavailable.)

Less than five minutes later, Kevin Youkilis hit a two-run home run to put the Sox on top, and Victor Martinez followed with another solo home run — this one from the left side, so apparently he can still hit as a lefty — to provide some padding. This left us both dispirited.

From Alex: “Last year, the Yanks had a ton of comeback wins. Another one tonight would be sweet but I’m not feeling it.”

I wasn’t, either. Then Gardner got on with the double. There was a chance. Teixeira made a loud out. Then A-Rod. So much for him not being clutch. And again against Papelbon. Huge home run to left-center. I immediately typed a note to Alex:

“A. F—ING. ROD.”

“Sweet Georgia Brown. They have to win now,” was the reply.

Then Cervelli gets plunked and we all could feel it. Then Michael Kay put on the prophet hat as Marcus Thames dug into the batter’s box:

“Marcus Thames can turn on a fastball, and he’ll be sitting dead red here.”

First pitch, 93-mph heat. Roped over the left-field wall. Jubilation.

Tomorrow, CC vs. Beckett. Beanball war, anyone?

KARMA
Something must be in the air at Yankee Stadium on May 17. Consider … In 1998, it was David Wells’ perfect game. In 2002, it was Jason Giambi’s game-winning grand slam in the 14th inning to cap a 13-12 win. Prior to the bottom of the 14th, as Mike Trombley made his warm-up tosses, Jim Kaat said off-air, “I bet the first three guys get on and Bernie (Williams) hits a grand slam to win it.” Shane Spencer singled, Alfonso Soriano flied out, then Jeter singled and Williams walked, leading up to the Giambi home run.

And now this victory, which will likely be re-aired as a Yankees Classic in two weeks.

DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
Marcus Thames got the first A.J. Burnett Shaving Cream Pie of the season. On June 10, 2002, the night of his Major League debut, in his first Major League at-bat, on the first pitch he saw, he homered off Randy Johnson. He received a pie in the face during his postgame interview that night also.

FRANKIE BRAINS BRINGS THE PAIN…TO OPPOSING PITCHERS
Courtesy of his RBI single in the first inning, Francisco Cervelli is batting .786 (11-for-14) with runners in scoring position this season. Overall, he’s batting an even .400 with an OPS of .988.

GARDY TO LEADOFF?
Brett Gardner got on base three more times in five plate appearances. I’ve taken my fair share of potshots at Gardner and his wet noodle swing, but the guy is a sparkplug and the kind of player I really enjoy watching. With his OBP now hovering closer to the .400 mark and Derek Jeter struggling, Girardi has to consider shaking up the top of the order to get Gardner on base.

BOONE’S BANE
Not only is it a cool obscure instrumental tune from Rush, it aptly describes the LOOGY Logan. “Relief” isn’t the operative word when describing Logan as a relief pitcher. Entering Monday’s game, Logan had walked six — he also struck out six — and had a WHIP of 1.80. He did little to improve those numbers, throwing three straight balls to open the at-bat to Martinez.

Logan retired the next three hitters and was credited with a hold. He threw first-pitch strikes to only one of the four batters he faced.

STRANGE BUT TRUE
Jeremy Hermida was the only starter on either team to go hitless and not reach base.

The big news in Boston is that Big Papi is back, hitting .387/.412/.710 over his last eight games and having launched five home runs already in May with the month just half over. The big news in the Bronx is that Phil Hughes is the best pitcher in the American League right now. Hughes takes on Daisuke Matsuzaka tonight, which sounds like a mismatch except Matsuzaka just twirled a gem against the Blue Jays in his last start (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K). CC Sabathia takes on an achy Josh Beckett tomorrow. The Yankees should sweep this quick two-game set, but even if the do, the Red Sox still don’t suck.

The Sox’s roster remains the same as it was when they last met the Yankees, but here it is again anyway:

Boston Red Sox

2010 Record: 15-14 (.517)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 15-14 (.517)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark: Fenway Park

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-108, LH HR-85
RH Avg-107, RH HR-95

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Marco Scutaro (R)
3B – Adrian Beltre (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Darnell McDonald (R)
LF – Jeremy Hermida (L)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Lowell (3B/1B)
L – Jonathan Van Every (OF)
R – Bill Hall (UT)
S – Jason Varitek (C)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
R – Clay Buchholz
L – Jon Lester
R – John Lackey
R – Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen:

R – Jon Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Daniel Bard
S – Ramon S. Ramirez
R – Manny Delcarmen
L – Scott Schoeneweis
R – Tim Wakefield

Lineup:

R – Marco Scutaro (SS)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Adrian Beltre (3B)
L – Jeremy Hermida (LF)
R – Darnell McDonald

15-day DL:

CF – Mike Cameron (sports hernia)
LF – Jacoby Ellsbury (fractured ribs)
RHP – Boof Bonser (groin)
SS – Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis)
RHP – Junichi Tazawa (Tommy John surgery)

Yet, over their last 15 games, the Red Sox are 10-5, the exact same record as the Yankees over their last 15, and if you push it to 16 games, the Sox are 11-5 to the Yankees’ 10-6. Setting aside the fluky Baltimore series, in which two of the O’s wins were one-run victories in extra innings, the Sox have lost just three other series all year, to the Yankees, Rays, and Twins, the cream of the American League who enter today’s action with a combined .702 winning percentage. The Sox followed up their embarrassment in Baltimore by sweeping a four game set at home against the Angels, which pushed their record over .500 for the first time since the second day of the season, and prior to their trip to Baltimore, the Sox had won seven of their last nine games. Oh, and they’re doing all of that with two thirds of their outfield on the disabled list.

Yes, the Sox got off to a bad start, but they’re not a bad team, and the Yankees and the rest of baseball would be foolish to write them off this early. Remember when everyone was wondering what was wrong with Jon Lester? Well he’s a perennial slow starter (5.40 ERA through six starts in 2008, 6.07 ERA through ten starts last year). After three duds, he has put up the following line over his last three starts: 3-0, 0.44 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 20 2/3 IP, 10 H, 1R, 8 BB, 23 K, 0 HR. He faces A.J. Burnett on Sunday.

Josh Beckett, who starts against Phil Hughes tonight, got off to an even worst start, but his last time out he held the O’s to two runs over seven innings, striking out six against no walks or homers. Twenty-five-year-old Clay Buchholz, who starts Saturday against CC Sabathia, has been very good for a fourth starter, posting a 2.97 ERA with solid peripherals. The Yankees are going to miss John Lackey in this series, but five of his six starts this season have been quaility, and if you take out his one dud against the Rays, his ERA drops to 2.14.

At the plate, J.D. Drew got off to a miserable start, but has hit .352/.422/.667 over his last 14 games. David Ortiz homered just once in April, but has three jacks already in May and is finally being platooned with Mike Lowell (a move I had been expecting all winter). Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia remain among the most productive players at their positions (Robinson Cano has nine homers and 21 RBIs, Pedroia has seven taters and has driven in 21 as well). Adrian Beltre is hitting .343, and Jason Varitek has found new life coming off the bench (11-for-34 with five homers), which is important as Victor Martinez is one of the few Boston hitters still scuffling (though he did go 6-for-17 with two doubles and a homer in the Angels series).

Mike Cameron, out with a sports hernia, and Jacoby Ellsbury, out with broken ribs, have both resumed baseball activities, and though he hasn’t pitched well in two starts, Daisuke Matsuzaka has returned from the disabled list, pushing Tim Wakefield to the bullpen and assorted detritus (Scott Atchison, Fabio Castro, Alan Embree) off the roster. The Red Sox are righting their ship. Given that they’ve been keeping pace with the Yankees for more than half of the season despite the struggles of various individual players, that’s a legitimate concern.

The Yankees enter this weekend’s series in Boston with a five-game lead on the Sox, but there are 135 games left on the Yankees’ schedule. Certainly those five games give the Yankees some margin for error, but with injuries cascading through the roster, they just might need it. Meanwhile, with the Rays off to a blinding start (in addition to their major league best 21-7 record and .750 winning percentage, they have tied the 1984 Tigers with the best run differential after 28 games by any team since 1961 [hat tip: @lonestarball]), the three-way battle in the AL East that we expected each of the last two years but didn’t get due to the shortcomings of the Yankees and Rays, respectively, looks like it will be a reality this year.

I still like the Yankees’ chances of taking this series, because of the starters they have lined up and because of how well they’ve been playing all year, but any thoughts of being able to kick Boston while they’re down are misguided. The Red Sox are good. You heard it here first.

As for the Yankees, they’re going to skip Andy Pettitte’s next start to be extra careful about his elbow and have thus pushed back Javy Vazquez back a day to his regular spot in the rotation on Tuesday and scheduled Sergio Mitre for Monday against the Tigers. So as not to be without a long man in the pen (and to free Alfredo Aceves up for high-leverage work), they’ve demoted Greg Golson (who made just one appearance as a defensive replacement) in favor of Romulo Sanchez. Sanchez, the hard-thrower received from the Pirates for Eric Hacker, has a 6.48 ERA after five starts for Scranton this year, but that number drops to 3.18 if you take out his one monster stinker against Syracuse, the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate. Still, don’t expect to see him except in a blowout.

Mariano Rivera is available to night, but Jorge Posada needed one more day. Linup after Cano: Nick Swisher (RF), Brett Gardner (CF), Francisco Cervelli (C), Randy Winn (LF).

As for the Red Sox roster . . .

Boston Red Sox

2010 Record: 15-14 (.517)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 15-14 (.517)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark: Fenway Park

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-108, LH HR-85
RH Avg-107, RH HR-95

Who Has Replaced Whom:

• Darnell McDonald (minors) has replaced Jacoby Ellsbury (DL)
• Jonathan Van Every as replaced Mike Cameron (DL) on the roster, with Jeremy Hermida taking Cameron’s place in the lineup.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL) has replaced Tim Wakefield in the rotation, who has replaced Scott Atchison (minors) in the bullpen
  

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Marco Scutaro (R)
3B – Adrian Beltre (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Darnell McDonald (R)
LF – Jeremy Hermida (L)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Lowell (3B/1B)
L – Jonathan Van Every (OF)
R – Bill Hall (UT)
S – Jason Varitek (C)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
R – Clay Buchholz
L – Jon Lester
R – John Lackey
R – Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen:

R – Jon Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Daniel Bard
S – Ramon S. Ramirez
R – Manny Delcarmen
L – Scott Schoeneweis
R – Tim Wakefield

Lineup:

R – Marco Scutaro (SS)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Adrian Beltre (3B)
L – Jeremy Hermida (LF)
R – Darnell McDonald

15-day DL:

CF – Mike Cameron (sports hernia)
LF – Jacoby Ellsbury (fractured ribs)
RHP – Boof Bonser (groin)
SS – Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis)
RHP – Junichi Tazawa (Tommy John surgery)

Given that I expect the battle between the Yankees and Red Sox to define this season, ideally climaxing in an American League Championship Series battle that will send the eventual world champion to the World Series, this gives me a great opportunity to whip out that hoary-yet-eternally-enjoyable tale-of-the-tape standby, the position-by-position comparison.

As is my usual style, I handle the everyday players by position in the lineup rather than position in the field, making some small swaps where a better match can be made, and comparing only offense, reserving fielding for a separate team-wide category.

Also, this is bound to be a long post, so I’ve put the two Opening Day Night rosters in the previous post.

And awaaaay we go . . .

Lineup:

Derek Jeter
2009: .334/.406/.465, .310 EqA; career: .317/.388/.459, .293 EqA
Dustin Pedroia
2009: .296/.371/.447, .280; career: .307/.370/.455, .283

Already fudging the lineups, I start my comparison with the Red Sox’s second-place hitter and the Yankee lead-off man who used to hit second because they’re such similar offensive players. Both hit for average, get on base, have modest pop, and will swipe a fair number of bases at a roughly 80 percent success rate (over the last two years, Jeter has stolen 41 of 51, Pedrioa 40 of 49). Both also hit into a fair amount of double plays, though Jeter is far more likely to strike out.

Pedroia has had a significant home/road split in his career, and it was downright severe in 2009 as he hit .318/.388/.514 at Fenway but just .273/.355/.381 on the road, but then Jeter lost nearly 60 points of slugging away from the New Yankee Stadium last year.

The big difference between Pedroia’s 2008 American League Most Valuable Player season and his still-solid 2009 campaign was his performance against left-handed pitching. In 2008, he hit .313/.376/.528 against lefties. In 2009, he hit just .277/.366/.399 against them. Given that he’s a right-handed hitter, I’d expect some rebound from Pedroia there. Combine that with some expected regression from Jeter coming off one of his most productive seasons and factor in the relative age of the two players (Pedroia is 26, Jeter will be 36 in June), and this one is closer than it might appear from the rate stats above, all of which give Jeter the edge.

Nick Johnson
2009: .291/.426/.405, .293*; career: .273/.402/.447, .299
Jacoby Ellsbury
2009: .301/.355/.415, .276; career: .297/.350/.414, .274

Jeter and Pedroia are so well matched that it’s disappointing to see this mismatch result from putting them together. Johnson and Ellsbury are completely different types of players. Ellsbury is a hitter who lacks secondary skills (power, patience) and gets a lot of his value from his legs (120 steals at 84 percent over the last two years). Johnson is a hitter whose primary value is his patience and ability to get on base. Johnson’s on-base percentage is more valuable than Ellsbury’s speed and makes Johnson a more reliable offensive performer (if Ellsbury’s singles don’t find holes one year, his production will collapse, and he won’t get many chances to steal). The catch is that Johnson is unreliable in his own way due to his inability to stay healthy. When both are in the lineup, the Yankees have the clear advantage, and one that could be even larger if Kevin Long’s work with Johnson does indeed result in increased power production. The big question is whether or not the Yankees can maintain that advantage with Johnson’s replacements when Nick hits the DL. If you add Ellsbury’s net steals to his total bases and subtract his times caught stealing from his hits, he “hit” .282/.334/.508 last year.

Mark Teixeira
2009: .292/.383/.565, .318; career: .290/.378/.545, .304
Kevin Youkilis
2009: .305/.413/.548, .317; career: .292/.391/.487, .296

One of the main arguments against Mark Teixeira’s MVP candidacy last year was that his production wasn’t unique for an American League first baseman in 2009. In addition to Youkilis, there was Miguel Cabrera (.311 EqA), and a tick below those top three Kendry Morales and Carlos Peña (both .298). Youkilis was an especially appropriate comparison because both he and Teixeira are superlative defensive first basemen, but Youkilis adds even more value by being able to play third with some regularity and even spot in the outfield.

Limited to their offensive games, Youkilis is an on-base threat who hits for power and Teixeira is a power hitter who gets on base, the differences largely coming out in the wash. Teixeira switch hits, but the righty-swinging Youkilis actually hits his fellow right-handers as well or better than he hits lefties, so that’s largely moot as well. Both got a nice slugging boost from their home parks last year, with Teixeira seeming to have benefited from his home parks more over the course of his career than Youkilis, but as per those park-adjusted career EqAs above, that too comes out in the wash.

What we have here are two of the top offensive threats in the league. If there is any meaningful difference between the two, it’s in career trajectory. Youkilis was a late bloomer who didn’t earn a starting job until his age-27 season and didn’t slug above .453 until his age-29 season in 2008 but has hit .309/.401/.559 over the last two seasons combined. Teixeira was a first-round draft pick who was in the Rangers’ starting lineup as a 23-year-old rookie and has  been remarkably consistent ever since. That means that Teixeira, who turns 30 a week from today, has had six years of production at his current level, while Youkilis, who is almost exactly a year older, has had just two. That is unlikely to mean much this season, but a few years down the road, when Youkilis suffers an Ortiz-like collapse and Teixeira is slugging his way into a Hall of Fame argument, the Yankees’ advantage will become clear.

Alex Rodriguez
2009: .286/.402/.532, .320; career: .305/.390/.576, .314
Victor Martinez
2009: .303/.381/.480, .291; career: .299/.372/.465, .289

A lot of words have been spilled (among them mine) over how much of the gap between Mike Cameron’s bat and Jason Bay’s bat will be made up by the upgrade from Bay’s fielding to Cameron’s, but looking at the Red Sox by batting order rather than defensive position, we see that it’s actually Victor Martinez who is replacing Bay, while Cameron is replacing four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Martinez. Taken that way we get these comparisons:

• Bay 2009: .267/.384/.537; Martinez career: .299/.372/.465
• Varitek+Martinez ’09: .251/.344/.426; Cameron career: .250/.340/.448

Toss out Martinez’s injury-plagued 2008, and in five of the last six years he has hit .302/.377/.483. Add in those extra 20 points of slugging from Cameron, and things get awfully close, close enough that a Fenway boost to Cameron’s power could close the gap before you even factor in what’s likely to be a huge defensive upgrade at two outfield positions with Cameron in center and Ellsbury in Fenway’s tiny left field.

None of that brings Martinez into Alex Rodriguez’s league, however. They’re similar players in that both are past their primes and injury concerns (Martinez as a 31-year-old catcher, Rodriguez as a 34-year-old coming off a major hip injury), but at their best, Rodriguez is far better, and there are more reasons to be concerned about Martinez heading into the 2010 season.

Martinez caught just 140 games over the last two years and, with Adrian Beltre at third keeping Youkilis at first, will be asked to catch a full load this year, which could wear on him. Even catching just 85 games last year, he hit just .281/.363/.420 at the position compared to .329/.405/.537 in 70 games at first base (small sample warnings apply, but given the demands of the positions, this seems like a legitimate split).

Swiping Martinez from the Indians last year was a coup for the Red Sox. It filled a gaping hole in their lineup, mercifully pushing Jason Varitek (who hit a combined .222/.316/.382 in three of the last four years) to the bench and gave them a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter to replace Bay. However,measuring him against Alex Rodriguez, who with a supposedly healthy hip could have another monster season and at the very least should appear in roughly 20 more games than he did last year, is unfair.

Jorge Posada
2009: .285/.363/.522, .301; career: .277/.379/.480, .291
David Ortiz
2009: .238/.332/.462, .266; career: .282/.377/.545, .299

Here are the two big collapse candidates in each lineup. Both hitters were propped up by their home parks last year (Posada hit .245/.327/.432 on the road, Ortiz .213/.315/.388, which looks worse, but is actually less of a drop from his overall production). Posada is a 38-year-old catcher who will turn 39 in August and is hoping to prove that his nearly unprecedented 2009 season wasn’t a last gasp. Ortiz is a big-bodied late bloomer who, entering his age-34 season, has seen his isolated power drop in each of the last three as his slugging percentage has fallen from .636 in 2006 to .462 last year. Ortiz is hoping to prove that his .264/.356/.548 performance over the final four months of the 2009 season was the “real” Big Papi, but even that was a shadow of his 2003-to-2007 peak, and looking at his 2008 line (.264/.369/.507) and his 2010 PECOTA (.259/.368/.479) that .548 slugging percentage seems out of reach.

If the Red Sox are smart and use Mike Lowell to spell Ortiz against lefties (Ortiz hit .212/.298/.418 against southpaws last year and .221/.308/.433 against them in ’08) this spot in the lineup should easily out-produce Posada, who is all but guaranteed to see some regression even if he does avoid a total collapse, but a straight-up battle between Posada and Ortiz could go either way.

Robinson Cano
2009: .320/.352/.520, .293; career: .306/.339/.480, .277
J.D. Drew
2009: .279/.392/.522, .299; career: .283/.392/.504, .302

If the Red Sox took J.D. Drew seriously and hit him fourth, where he should be as the second-best hitter in their lineup and a slugging lefty who could bat behind right-handed on-base machine Youkilis, the gap between these two lineups would be reduced, but their decision to continue burying Drew behind Ortiz undermines his production and is a large reason why he hasn’t driven in 70 runs in any of his three seasons in Boston. Conversely, the Yankees are moving Cano up in the order, hitting him fifth behind Alex Rodriguez in the hope that the challenge will improve his performance with runners in scoring position (he hit .207/.242/.332 in those situations last year and hitting coach Kevin Long’s personal stat-keeping revealed that Cano had more swings at pitches outside of the strike zone in those situations). Cano hit .376/.407/.609 in 361 plate appearances with the bases empty last year, has the bat to rival Drew on contact, is entering his age-27 season, and will likely play at least 20 more games than the injury-prone right fielder, all of which should help make up the patience gap, but the simple fact is that the contact-hitting Cano makes many more outs on both a cumulative and per-game basis, giving Drew a clear edge here.

Curtis Granderson
2009: .249/.327/.453, .266; career: .272/.344/.484, .281
Adrian Beltre
2009: .265/.304/.379, .246; career: .270/.325/.453, .270

Here we have a pair of compelling new additions who join the rivalry coming off down years. Yes, Curtis Granderson hit 30 home runs for the first time in 2009, but according to VORP, he was less than half as productive as he was in his breakout 2007 season, when he hit seven fewer homers, but 30 more doubles and triples for 52 more total bases on top of another 53 points of batting average. The Yankees are hoping that escaping lefty-killing Comerica Park (Bill James’ 2009 Indexes for left-handed hitters at Comerica: Average-91, Home Runs-85, with 100 being neutral) and arriving in the homer-happy new Yankee Stadium will help him, a belief aided by Granderson’s career .284/.353/.516 line on the road, but the Yankees’ new ballpark is death to doubles and triples (Bill James Indexes of 81 and 50, respectively), so they could just get more of the same.

Beltre is also escaping a ballpark that was built to torture him (Safeco’s James Index for left-handed homers last year was 77) for one built to his favor (Fenway’s ’09 Indexes for right-handed average and homers were both 105). Throw out Beltre’s injury plagued 2009 season, when his power was sapped by shoulder surgery, and look at his road splits as a Mariner over the previous four seasons: .276/.326/.485. Granderson’s career line still beats that due to his willingness to take a walk, but if Granderson isn’t getting his inside-the-park extra-base hits and Beltre is getting a Fenway boost, this could be closer than Yankee fans want to admit.

Nick Swisher
2009: .249/.371/.498, .300; career: .245/.357/.460, .283
Mike Cameron
2009: .250/.342/.452, .286; career: .250/.340/.448, .277

Given Swisher’s ability to work deep counts and reputation as a Moneyball draftee known for drawing walks, it’s surprising to be reminded that his career on-base percentage is just .357. That’s due to his low batting averages (his career OBP is still 112 points above his career average, a gap confirming his fine-tuned batting eye), and Swisher and Kevin Long have targeted exactly those low averages in an off-season revamping of his swing. I’ll believe it when I see it, but there’s reason to expect that Swisher’s career-best 2009 season, complete with .249 average, can be repeated. Swisher slugged just .394 with just eight taters in homer-happy Yankee Stadium last year, so one imagines that the likely regression in his 2009 road slugging (.585, 21 homers) can be made up with some correction in his performance at home. Also, Swisher was just 28 last year, which suggests that after a poor 2008 campaign in which he was undermined by his White Sox manager, primarily by being played out of position in center field, he might have established his proper level in a make-up peak season in 2009.

Cameron is a similar three-true-outcome type, though one with a bigger strikeout slice and a smaller walk slice. He’s also something of an older Beltre with walks. Cameron has spent most of his career struggling against pitchers parks (specifically Safeco, Shea, and Petco) and is coming off of two years in Milwaukee where Miller Park had a 97 James Index for right-handed home runs over the past three years. There’s hope for a surge there, but it’s undermined by the fact that Cameron is a 37-year-old who plays a challenging defensive position. Some of the best center fielders of his generation (Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams) were more or less cooked by their age 37 seasons (though the first two are still at it anyway), so there’s considerable risk of collapse here, which increases Swisher’s edge.

Incidentally, Swisher and Cameron are the number-eight hitters for their teams. These lineups are insanely deep. No other lineup in baseball can compete with these two, not even the Phillies’.

Brett Gardner
2009: .270/.345/.379, .272; career: .256/.325/.352, .259
Marco Scutaro
2009: .282/.379/.409, .286; career: .265/.337/.384, .258

Gardner and Scutaro are again a good match. Each is clearly the weakest hitter in his team’s lineup, and neither has a particularly long track record as a major league starter on which we can base our comparison. Last year was the first of Scutaro’s career in which he was given a starting job on Opening Day and kept it all year without the benefit of a teammate’s injury. Scutaro thrived given the opportunity, posting career highs in all three slash stats and spiking his walk rate. Had he done that in his late twenties, I’d be more confident of a repeat, but he’ll be 34 this year and will have to prove that last year was more than just a well-timed fluke, though given the lineup around him, I’m betting against a major regression.

Gardner has only played parts of two major league seasons and has yet to convince anyone that he can hold his own at the plate in the major leagues. Still, his 2009 line compares favorably to Scutaro’s career line, and given his youth (he’s 26), major league learning curve, and exploitable speed (this spring he was working on adding bunt base hits to his arsenal and if you factor in his 39 steals at an 86 percent success rate as I did with Ellsbury above, he has “slugged” a respectable .440 in his brief major league career), there’s reason to believe that the best from Gardner is yet to come. At the same time, Scutaro has appeared in 100 or more games for six straight seasons and is unlikely to significantly underperform his career line, whereas Gardner’s grip on the major leagues is still tentative enough that he could punt his starting job altogether leaving Randy Winn or some sort of platoon or replacement-level fix in his wake.

*because Johnson and Martinez split their 2009 seasons between two teams, I had to use GPA rather than EqA here. Though EqA is far more involved, adjusted for league and park, and includes basrunning, I find GPA does a good short-cut job of estimating it.

Bench:

Right-handed bench bat/potential short-side platoon partner:

Marcus Thames: 2009: .252/.323/.453; career: .243/.306/.491
Mike Lowell: 2009: .290/.337/.474; career: .280/.343/.468

Thames has more pop, but Lowell is the better all-around hitter and can be a statue at infield corners, while Thames can only be a statue in the outfield corners. Lowell is also a better fit for the Sox starter most likely to need his platoon partnering: DH David Ortiz (Thames and Curtis Granderson are an odd-fit that requires a complex platoon). The Red Sox seem eager to trade Lowell, who is due $12 million this year, but I think he’s a good fit for their team as a bench bat and a better fit as a platoon DH.

Fourth outfielder:

Randy Winn: 2009: .262/.318/.353; career: .286/.344/.418
Jeremy Hermida: 2009: .259/.348/.392; career: .265/.344/.425

Hermida is another player escaping an unfavorable ballpark (the Marlins’ ballpark has a three-year James Index of 94 for left-handed home runs) for friendly Fenway. Hermida isn’t much in the field or on the bases, but he has hit .276/.359/.456 on the road in his career and is entering his age-27 season. Winn will turn 36 this year and seems to be approaching replacement level at the plate, but he’s an excellent defender in the corners, can bide time in center, and was 56-for-63 on the bases (88 percent) over the last three years. If one of your starters gets hurt, you want Hermida, but on a game-to-game basis as a fourth outfielder behind a set, deep lineup, Winn’s abilities as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner might be more valuable, provided they’re not overused.

Utility Man:

Ramiro Peña: 2009: .287/.317/.383; mL career: .231/.310/.327
Bill Hall: 2009: .201/.258/.338; career: .251/.309/.441

Peña is a strong fielder at short, second, and third, but his hit-lucky rookie showing at the plate is unlikely to be repeated as he’s a .231/.310/.327 career hitter in the minors. Bill Hall was the Brewers’ starting shortstop, center fielder, and third baseman over the course of three seasons. He’s still just 30 and remains a defensive asset in the outfield as well as the infield, but at this point he’s no better at the plate than Peña (last three seasons: .229/.291/.391). I’m not sure there’s a winner here.

Backup catcher:

Francisco Cervelli: 2009: .298/.309/.372; mL career: .273/.367/.380
Jason Varitek: 2009: .209/.313/.390; career: .259/.344/.435

Cervelli is a superlative defender who should rediscover his batting eye in the majors now that he has some job security, but will never be a significant asset at the plate. Varitek will be 38 next week and didn’t find Posada’s fountain of youth. He has hit .222/.316/.382 in three of the last four seasons combined and threw out just 13 percent of runners last year. He still has some pop against left-handers, but he’s otherwise useless except as a coach and museum piece.

Rotation:

CC Sabathia
2009: 3.37 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.94 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP
career: 3.63 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.69 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP

Jon Lester
2009: 3.41 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.53 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP
career: 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.39 K/BB, 1.33 WHIP

I know Josh Beckett will be starting against Sabathia tonight, but Lester is the proper comp as he’s Boston’s ace. Lester and Sabathia aren’t just aces, they’re Cy Young candidates (I was just one of four SI.com “experts” to project Lester for the award last week; last year I picked CC). They’re also both hard-throwing lefties who tend to struggle in April. Last year, Lester went 12-3 with a 2.31 ERA over his last 22 starts (19 quality), while Sabathia went 18-5 with a 3.06 ERA over his last 28 starts (also 19 quality). Lester came into his own in 2008, spiked his strikeout rate in 2009, and at age-26 is set up to have a huge 2010. Sabathia won the AL Cy Young award in his age-26 season and has been an absolute horse ever since.

There’s some lingering concern about the 779 1/3 innings Sabathia has thrown (including the postseason) over the last three years (an average of nearly 260 IP per season), particularly given the fact that his K/BB has dropped each of the last two years largely due to a subtle increase in walks. I don’t share that concern, but I am entertained by the manner in which his ability to endure all of those innings has changed the perception of his bulk from the result of a problematic lack of conditioning to a beneficial source of strength and endurance. The Yankees actually backed off CC last year, asking him to finish just two games after he had completed 20 over the previous three seasons and thus requiring him to throw “just” 230 innings in the regular season, a total that was happily enlarged by five postseason starts. CC is built to bear that load and is now conditioned to bear it as well, and he’s been a top-5 Cy Young finisher in each of the last three seasons. Lester has never received a Cy Young vote, but that should change this year.

A.J. Burnett
2009: 4.04 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 2.01 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP
career: 3.84 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.22 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP

Josh Beckett
2009: 3.86 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.62 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP
career: 3.79 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.12 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP

Former Marlins rotation mates, Beckett and Burnett both tend to suffer from nagging aches and pains which dilute their effectiveness and or reduce their availability. When fully healthy, as both were last year, the primary difference between the two, other than the fact that Beckett is three years younger, is Burnett’s wildness. Burnett led the AL in walks and the majors in wild pitches last year, but he also came up with a quality start roughly as often as Beckett (21 in 33 starts to Beckett’s 20 in 32). Otherwise, both have similar strikeout and home run rates, a surly, unlikeable demeanor on the mound, have been known to throw at batters, and have shown past preferences for unproductive personal catchers, preferences both were encouraged to abandon this spring. Beckett’s relative youth and control make him the better bet, as does the fact that he’s entering a walk year, but there are more similarities here than there are differences.

Javier Vazquez
2009: 2.87 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 5.41 K/BB, 1.03 WHIP
career: 4.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.48 K/BB, 1.25 WHIP

John Lackey
2009: 3.83 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 2.96 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP
career: 3.81 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.72 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP

The differences hear are classic Javy Vazquez. He has clearly superior career peripherals, but the higher career ERA and lower rate of quality starts (55 percent to Lackey’s 59). Vazquez ceased to frustrate last year with an outstanding career year for the Braves and looked sharp in camp. Though he’s sure to come down from that high, concerns about his move back to the “tougher league” are overblown, and concerns about his seeming inability to handle New York in 2004 were eliminated by the revelation that, after making the All-Star game that year, he developed a shoulder injury that he never revealed to the Yankees. Often overlooked is the fact that Vazquez has the longest active streak of 30-start seasons in baseball, having started in 30-plus games (and thrown 198 or more innings) in each of the last ten seasons.

Lackey, on the other hand, hasn’t made 30 starts or reached 180 innings since 2007, though he seems to have avoided the spring training injury bug this year. Both of these pitchers were, save for Vazquez last year and Lackey in 2007, overextended as aces in the past, but inserted into this rivalry are now overqualified as number-threes. Like Lester and Beckett, Lackey has the advantage of relative youth (he’s almost two years Vazquez’s junior), but Vazquez’s reliability, particularly this deep in the rotation, counts for a lot.

Andy Pettitte
2009: 4.16 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.95 K/BB, 1.38 WHIP
career: 3.91 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.33 K/BB, 1.36 WHIP

Daisuke Matsuzaka/Tim Wakefield
Matsuzaka career: 4.00 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP
Wakefield career: 4.33 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.75 K/BB, 1.35 WHIP

Here’s where faith starts to become important. Andy Pettitte, a man of faith himself, has settled in as a veteran innings-eater who, save for 2008, becomes something more than that in the second half of the season. That’s a great pitcher to have in the four-hole (though Pettitte will actually take the third turn ahead of Vazquez in the Yankee rotation), but Andy also turns 38 in June and has had elbow concerns in the past. His Brett Favre routine every fall reminds us that he’s pitching on borrowed time at this point.

Matzusaka, meanwhile, has gone from hero to zero in a hurry as a series of injuries and conditioning-related conflicts with the Red Sox limited him to a dozen starts last year (only three of them quality, all in the season’s final weeks) and have him back on the DL with back and neck issues to start this season. When he does return to action, there’s no telling what to expect, particularly given all of the red flags from his 18-win 2008 season when he had a .258 BABIP, averaged less than six innings per start (and 4.05 pitches per plate appearance), and was overly reliant on pitching out of jams. Company man Tim Wakefield, now 43, will take Matsuzaka’s place for now. Forty-three isn’t necessarily old for a knuckleballer, but a 43-year-old knuckleballer wouldn’t be many team’s first choice for their fourth starter, either. I’m sure Red Sox fans have faith that Matsuzaka will return in late April and pitch like the front-end starter he’s never really resembled in the States. Me, I’ll place my faith in another 200 innings from Pettitte and hope he has enough left for another big second-half push.

Phil Hughes
2009 (7 GS): 5.45 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB, 1.50 WHIP
career: 4.20 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.46 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP

Clay Buchholz
2009 (16 GS): 4.21 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.89 K/BB, 1.38 WHIP
career: 4.91 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.86 K/BB, 1.50 WHIP

Phil Hughes was a first-round pick out of high school in 2004. Clay Buchholz was a first supplemental round pick out of college in 2005 (taken with the compensation pick received when the Mets signed Pedro Martinez). Both quickly rose to the top of the prospect lists and made their major league debuts in 2007. In Hughes’ second major league start, he threw 6 1/3 hitless innings against the Rangers before pulling a hamstring and being forced to leave the game. In Buchholz’s second major league start, he completed a no-hitter against the Orioles. Big things were expected from both as they opened the 2008 seasons in their teams’ respective rotations, but Hughes got hurt again (stress fracture of a rib), and Buchholz was given surprisingly little rope, being demoted after a pair of poor starts in May. Both finished 2008 with ERAs over 6.00 and opened 2009 in the minors. Both would finish the season back in their team’s good graces.

Hughes came up at the end of April to fill Chien-Ming Wang’s vacated rotation spot, and though he didn’t excel, he pitched well enough to stay in the majors when Wang returned. Hughes slid into the bullpen and began to dominate, posting a 1.40 ERA and striking out 65 men in 51 1/3 innings against just two homers and 13 walks over the remainder of the season. Buchholz came up after the All-Star break and in ten starts from August 8 to September 24 posted a 2.37 ERA, turning in nine quality start in those ten outings while the Red Sox went 8-2 in his games. That earned him the third spot in Boston’s postseason rotation.

With those successes under their belts, the oxymoronic veteran prospects once again open the season in their teams’ rotations hoping to finally live up to their prospect hype. Buchholz is now 25. Hughes won’t be 24 until June. Hughes’ career line above looks more impressive, but if you limit those numbers to his starts only, they look a lot more like Buchholz’s: 5.22 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.90 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP. Anything could happen with these two. They could dominate or lose their rotation spot before the end of May. Hughes could get hurt again. If one goes one way and the other the other, this spot in the rotation could very well decide the division, and if either pitcher finally puts it all together, he will instantly become a key player in this rivalry for the first half of the new decade.

Bullpen:

This doesn’t need a detailed breakdown. Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon are both automatic and, with Joe Nathan out for the year, only Kansas City’s Joakim Soria can be fairly listed as their equal. Over the last two seasons, Rivera has converted 83 of 86 saves (96.5 percent), while Papelbon has saved 79 of 87 (90.8 percent). Last year, they finished 1 and 2 in the majors in WXRL, with Rivera’s edge being partially due to his leverage index being a smidge higher. If you had to pick one, you’d pick Rivera, but he’s 40 now and though he’s been as good as ever the last two years, there’s a lingering worry now about when the end will finally arrive.

Behind those two, however, the Yankees clearly have a deeper corps. Hideki Okajima has proven to be a reliable full-inning lefty set-up man over the last three years, and Daniel Bard is an exciting young arm, but Okajima benefited from abnormally low opponents batting averages on balls in play his first two years and was less dominant when some correction occurred last year, and Bard could as easily turn into Kyle Farnsworth as Billy Wagner. Things get significantly shakier from there. Ramon S. Ramirez (the former Yankee farmhand) got away with a lot of bad pitching last year thanks to a .262 BABIP and an ability to bear down with runners on base. He won’t survive another year of a 1.63 K/BB and opponents hitting .285/.363/.477 against him at home. Manny Delcarmen was awful in the second half last year, hurt his back in a car accident in October, and revealed to the team this spring that he hid some shoulder fatigue from them last year, which put him on more of a rehab track in camp. Scott Schoeneweis is a generic journeyman LOOGY with a career 1.43 K/BB and .294/.367/.469 split against right-handed batters. Scott Achison is a 34-year-old with 68 major league innings to his credit who spent the last two years as a swing-man in Japan.

Against that the  Yankees throw Joba Chamberlain, who is looking to return to his eighth-inning dominance (his career relief split includes a 1.50 ERA and 11.9 K/BB). Chan Ho Park, who was dominant out of the pen for the NL Champion Phillies last year, dominated in camp, and seems to have revived his career by moving to the bullpen. David Robertson has struck out 99 men in 74 major league innings. The top two from that group of three should best Okajima and Bard, and the remaining reliever, whomever he his, will be a better bet than Ramirez. The health of Damaso Marte‘s shoulder seems to be a constant issue, but he avoided the disabled list to start the season, and Delcarmen is in a similar place. No mere LOOGY, Marte is a significant asset when his arm is right, as he was in the postseason last year. Alfredo Aceves gives the Yankees a legitimate utility pitcher, something the Red Sox lack save perhaps for Achison who last pitched in the majors in 2007, and a wily junkballer who serves as a significant change of pace from the hard-throwers already named. Finally, Sergio Mitre may not have much of a track record, but two years removed from Tommy John surgery, he has impressed in camp with an excellent 4.75 K/BB ratio and, like Park and Chamberlain and Phil Hughes last year, he’s a hard-throwing starter who should benefit from being able to come in and throw his best pitches at max effort for an inning or two without having to turn the opposing lineup over.

Defense:

Adrian Beltre is perhaps the best defensive third baseman in the majors. Alex Rodriguez post-hip-surgery is sub-par. Robinson Cano often looks like he could be one of the better defensive second basemen in baseball, but Dustin Pedroia legitimately is. Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira are, again, a wash. Marco Scutaro has Derek Jeter beat. That’s edge: Red Sox in the infield. The Yankees’ catching corps are vastly superior in gunning out runners. Though Jorge Posada‘s receiving and pitch-blocking leave a lot to be desired, Francisco Cervelli is superb, so the Yankees get the edge there. As long as Curtis Granderson is in center and until Cameron’s legs give out, Mike Cameron will be the better center fielder. Brett Gardner, a legitimately supurb center fielder playing in a huge left field, beats out Jacoby Ellsbury, a poor enough defensive center fielder that he was moved into Fenway’s tiny left field for the team’s benefit rather than Cameron’s. Nick Swisher is better in right field than he looks, but J.D. Drew is far better than that. Edge: Red Sox in the outfield and at five of the eight non-pitching positions with a sixth being a draw.

Manager:

Terry Francona‘s only significant flaw is that he thinks too highly of Jason Varitek and is a threat to give him too much playing time. Joe Girardi was greatly improved in his second season as Yankee manager and is an expert handler of pitchers, particularly bullpens. I see more Yankee games than Red Sox games, so Francona’s idiosyncrasies don’t reveal themselves to me as easily, but Girardi does have tendency to overmanage when games get tight and, despite his overall flexibility with bullpen roles, can be a bit too quick with his hook in those situations, most infamously taking David Robertson out of Game 3 of the ALCS last year after Robertson had retired the only two batters he faced in the 11th. Francona, like Philadelphia’s Charlie Manuel, knows that with a loaded team a manager’s best move is to let his players play. Girardi is learning that, but Francona still has the edge in experience and world championships . . . for now.

Conclusion:

The Yankees have the stronger lineup and bullpen and a slight edge in the rotation due to the uncertainty and unreliability of Matsuzaka. The Red Sox have the better defense and a manager less likely to undermine their efforts. I picked the Red Sox to win the division, in part because I felt that, after everything came up heads last year, something has to go wrong for the Yankees this year. The differences between these two teams are small enough for that to make the difference, but I picked the Yankees to turn the tables on the Sox in the ALCS and repeat as World Series champions because, ultimately, and at full-strength, the Yankees are the better team. I picked the Red Sox to win the division last year as well, and to beat the Yankees in the ALCS. I was happily wrong about that. This year I’ll be happy to be wrong again, but only about the division.

2009 Record: 103-59 (.636)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (.586)

Manager: Joe Girardi
General Manager: Brian Cashman

Home Ballpark: Yankee Stadium 2.1

Bill James Park Indexes (2009):
LH Avg-99, LH HR-120
RH Avg-99, RH HR-133

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Curtis Granderson replaces Johnny Damon
• Nick Johnson replaces Hideki Matsui
• Randy Winn replaces Melky Cabrera
• Marcus Thames replaces Eric Hinske
• Francisco Cervelli inherits Jose Molina’s playing time
• Javier Vazquez replaces Chein-Ming Wang, Chad Gaudin, and the 17 starts made by Sergio Mitre, Aflredo Aceves, and Phil Hughes
• Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain swap roles
• Chan Ho Park replaces Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, and Edwar Ramirez
• Damaso Marte reclaims Phil Coke’s innings

25-man Roster:

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Nick Swisher (S)
CF – Curtis Granderson (L)
LF – Brett Gardner (L)
DH – Nick Johnson (L)

Bench:

R – Marcus Thames (OF)
S – Randy Winn (OF)
S – Ramiro Pena (IF)
R – Francisco Cervelli (C)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte
R – Javier Vazquez
R – Phil Hughes

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Chan Ho Park
R – Joba Chamberlain
L – Damaso Marte
R – David Robertson
R – Alfredo Aceves
R – Sergio Mitre

Lineup:

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Nick Johnson (DH)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Curtis Granderson (CF)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
L – Brett Gardner (LF)

*   *   *

Boston Red Sox

2009 Record: 95-67 (.586)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (.574)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark: Fenway Park

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-108, LH HR-85
RH Avg-107, RH HR-95

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Mike Cameron replaces Jason Bay
• Adrian Beltre takes most of Mike Lowell’s playing time
• Mike Lowell picks up the at-bats of Casey Kotchman and Jeff Bailey
• Victor Martinez takes most of Jason Varitek’s playing time
• Jason Varitek picks up George Kottaras’s playing time
• Marco Scutaro replaces Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, and Julio Lugo
• Jeremy Hermida replaces Rocco Baldelli
• Bill Hall replaces Mark Kotsay
• John Lackey replaces Brad Penny and John Smoltz
• Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka will compete to take starts from Tim Wakefield
• Scott Schoeneweis replaces Takashi Saito
• Scott Atchison replaces Justin Masterson

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Marco Scutaro (R)
3B – Adrian Beltre (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Mike Cameron (R)
LF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Lowell (3B/1B)
L – Jeremy Hermida (OF)
R – Bill Hall (UT)
S – Jason Varitek (C)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
L – Jon Lester
R – John Lackey
R – Tim Wakefield
R – Clay Buchholz

Bullpen:

R – Jon Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Daniel Bard
S – Ramon S. Ramirez
R – Manny Delcarmen
L – Scott Schoeneweis
R – Scott Atchison

Lineup:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (LF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Adrian Beltre (3B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
R – Mike Cameron (CF)
R – Marco Scutaro (SS)

15-day DL:

RHP – Daisuke Matsuzaka (back)
RHP – Boof Bonser (groin)
SS – Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis)
RHP – Junichi Tazawa (Tommy John surgery)

The Yankees clinched a playoff berth in Anaheim and enter this weekend’s series against the Red Sox leading Boston by five-games in the loss column with just just nine games left on the schedule. That puts their magic number at 5 and sets the Yanks up to clinch the division with a weekend sweep. Not that I expect that to happen. Still, just one win in this series would reduce the magic number to 3 and a series win would drop it to 1. Meanwhile, even if the Red Sox sweep the series, the Yankees could clinch by simply splitting their remaining games if the Sox lose just twice in their remaining seven games against the admittedly weak Blue Jays and Indians.

So, once again, the Yankees’ goals in this series are to keep everyone healthy and sort out the final few spots on the postseason roster. Speaking of which, the Red Sox’s current roster is at the end of this post, but below the jump I’ll take a stab at projecting their likely postseason roster.

Let’s start the Red Sox’s postseason roster with the sure things:

The starting nine:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Alex Gonzalez (R)
3B – Mike Lowell (R)
C – Victor Martinez (R)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF – Jason Bay (R)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Key bench players:

S – Jason Varitek (C)
L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
R – Rocco Baldelli (OF)

Guaranteed rotation members:

R – Josh Beckett
L – Jon Lester
R – Clay Buchholz

And top bullpen arms:

R – Jonathan Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Dan Bard
L – Billy Wagner
R – Takashi Saito
R – Ramon Ramirez

That’s 21 men. The remaining four will include an infielder (either Jed Lowrie or Nick Green), a fourth starter (either Daisuke Matsuzaka or Tim Wakefield), the rejected starter as a long-man in the bullpen, and either a 12th pitcher Manny Delcarmen, third catcher George Kottaras, or the other infielder. With only pitchers on the disabled list, the Sox can’t loophole speedy outfielder Joey Gathright onto the roster as a pinch-runner as Gathright wasn’t called up until September 1.

As for who the Sox are bringing to the Bronx this weekend . . .

Boston Red Sox

2009 Record: 91-61 (.599)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 90-62 (.592)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Fenway Park (108/106)

Changes:

• Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jed Lowrie, Rocco Baldelli, and George Kottaras activated from DL
• IF Chris Woodward, OFs Joey Gathright and Josh Reddick, C Dusty Brown, and LHP Hunter Jones called-up
• Billy Wagner acquired from Mets
• Junichi Tazawa placed on 60-day DL
• Brad Penny released

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Alex Gonzalez (R)
3B – Mike Lowell (R)
C – Victor Martinez (R)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF – Jason Bay (R)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

S – Jason Varitek (C)
L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
S – Jed Lowrie (SS)
R – Nick Green (SS)
R – Rocco Baldelli (OF)
R – Brian Anderson (OF)
L – Josh Reddick (OF)
L – Joey Gathright (OF)
R – Chris Woodward (UT)
L – George Kottaras (C)
R – Dusty Brown (C)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
R – Clay Buchholz
L – Jon Lester
R – Daisuke Matsuzaka
R – Tim Wakefield
R – Paul Byrd

Bullpen:

R – Jonathan Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Dan Bard
L – Billy Wagner
R – Manny Delcarmen
R – Takashi Saito
R – Ramon Ramirez
R – Michael Bowden
L – Hunter Jones

60-day DL: RHP – Junichi Tazawa (groin), RHP – Miguel Gonzalez (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Victor Martinez (1B/C)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B/3B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
R – Mike Lowell (3B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
R – Alex Gonzalez (SS)

The Yankees, flush with the new stadium revenue, spent wildly this past winter, but I still thought they’d have to settle for the Wild Card given the strength and depth of the Red Sox’s roster. Indeed, the Red Sox held a slim one-game lead over the Bombers on Memorial Day having already won the first five head-to-head games between the two teams to that point. Two weeks later, the Sox would take three more from the Yankees in Fenway Park, suggesting that, no matter how well the Yankees played against everyone else, the Red Sox were still the better team.

Then came the four-game set in the Bronx two weeks ago, when the Yankees not only got of the schnide against their division rivals, but beat them in every way possible (13-6 laugher; 15-inning scoreless duel; clean, well-pitched 5-0 win; and dramatic late-inning comeback). When the dust cleared, the Yankees held a convincing 6.5 game lead, a lead they’ve maintained heading into this weekend’s three-game set in Boston.

Both teams have gone 7-3 in the interim. The Yankees won series against the second-division Blue Jays and A’s as well as the should-be second-division Mariners. The Red Sox took a four-game set from the AL Central-leading Tigers, but dropped two of three to the Wild Card rival Rangers, only to rebound by sweeping the Jays, outscoring them 14-2 in their last two games.

The Yankees now arrive at Fenway to do the one thing they haven’t managed to do all season: beat the Red Sox in Boston. The Sox are a .679 team at home, where they score 5.66 runs per game and allow just 4.05. The Yankees, however, are no chumps on the road. Coming off a 5-2 west coast swing, they’re playing .565 ball away from home, scoring 5.44 runs and allowing 4.58 away from their homer-happy home park. Only the Angels and Phillies have had more road success than the Yankees in all of baseball.

Once again, the mission for the Yankees is to prove it when it counts. Their four-game sweep of the Red Sox in the Bronx didn’t ice the division, but if they can take two of three from Boston this weekend, doing it to them in their own park and leaving town with a 7.5-game lead with just three head-to-head games in the Bronx remaining, that very well could do the trick.

The pitching matchups favor the Yankees as they’ll have their top three (Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, and CC Sabathia) going while avoiding Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the latter of whom has turned in three straight quality starts dating back to his six innings of two-run ball against the Yankees on August 8. If the two teams split the first two games, Sunday night’s ESPN matchup of Josh Beckett and the red-hot CC Sabathia will be must-see TV for baseball fans of all stripes.

Brad Penny goes tonight. Relative to the performance of John Smoltz and the health of Rocco Baldelli, Penny has been a successful gamble. In a rotation that has been surprisingly thin due to Daisuke Matsuzaka’s disaster season, Tim Wakefield’s back injury, Smoltz’s failure, and the departure of Justin Masterson in the Victor Martinez deal, Penny hasn’t missed a turn, delivering 23 starts, 11 of them quality. Sure, his 5.22 ERA is ugly, but he was never supposed to be more than a fifth starter, and he’s been very much that. He’s been a bit too hitable (opponents hitting .291/.345/.482), but he gets out there and battles. He also shut out the Yankees at Fenway for six innings back on June 11.

Penny’s mound opponent tonight is Andy Pettitte, who has been flat awesome since the All-Star break with five quality starts in six tries, posting a 2.04 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 4.3 K/BB, 9.73 K/9, and allowing just one home run in 39 2/3 innings. That run includes seven shutout innings against the Red Sox in the Bronx on August 9.

Adding to that disadvantage, the Red Sox are without Jason Varitek tonight for the fifth straight game due to a sore neck and have now resorted to reacquiring Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop. Gonzalez is hitting .214/.258/.298 on the season and has never had another defensive season like he had for the Red Sox in 2006. He’s also just one year removed from knee surgery. The Sox might actually be better off without their captain in the lineup, but Gonzalez represents a hole in the Boston order that just doesn’t exist for the Bombers.

Damaso Marte has been activated and joins the Yankee bullpen tonight, bumping Ramiro Peña back to Triple-A. Marte has been on the disabled list for most of the season with shoulder problems, last appearing for the Yankees on April 25. He pitched 13 innings on his rehab assigment, 11 of them coming in Triple-A. In those 11, he struck out nine against four walks and gave up three runs on ten hits, two of them homers. That all works out to a 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with solid strikeout and walk rates, but the PawSox (whom he faced twice) and the Red Sox are two different monsters.

Boston Red Sox

2009 Record: 69-51 (.575)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 69-51 (.575)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Fenway Park (108/106)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Alex Gonzalez has replaced Jed Lowrie (DL)
• Brian Anderson (minors) has replaced Josh Reddick (minors)
• Michael Bowden (minors) has replaced TBA

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Alex Gonzalez (R)
3B – Mike Lowell (R)
C – Victor Martinez (R)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF – Jason Bay (R)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

S – Jason Varitek (C)
L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
R – Nick Green (SS)
R – Brian Anderson (OF)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
R – Clay Buchholz
L – Jon Lester
R – Brad Penny
R – Junichi Tazawa

Bullpen:

R – Jonathan Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Manny Delcarmen
R – Ramon Ramirez
R – Takashi Saito
R – Dan Bard
R – Michael Bowden

15-day DL:

RHP – Tim Wakefield (back)
OF – Rocco Baldelli (ankle)
SS – Jed Lowrie (wrist)
1B – Jeff Bailey (ankle)
C – George Kottaras (back)

60-day DL:

RHP – Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder)
RHP – Miguel Gonzalez (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Victor Martinez (1B/C)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B/3B)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Mike Lowell (3B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
R – Alex Gonzalez (SS)

The Yankees and Red Sox have ten head-to-head games remaining this season. Four of them will be played at the new Yankee Stadium tonight through Sunday. The remaining six are split between the Bronx and Boston. Coming into this series, the Yankees hold a 2.5-game lead over Boston in the AL East while Boston holds a three-game lead over Texas and Tampa Bay in the Wild Card race. The Yankees have played one more game than the Red Sox and have two fewer losses.

Of course, the story of the season for both teams thus far has been that the Red Sox have won all eight previous head-to-head games between the two teams this season. Take away those eight games and here’s how the two have done against against the rest of the majors:

NYY 65-34 (.657) -
BOS 54-44 (.551) 9.5

Since their last meeting, a three-game Red Sox sweep at Fenway Park in early June, the Yankees have gone 31-16 (.660) while the Red Sox have gone 26-20 (.565).

Given the Yankees’ dominance of third-party competition, it’s tempting to contemplate all sorts of “if only” scenarios (“if only they had split those eight games with Boston . . . if only they’d just won two of them . . .”), but those eight games count, and they just might reveal something about the relative strengths of the two teams and whether or not we can expect a different result this weekend.

With that in mind, here’s a quick look back at the first eight games of the season series:

April 24 @ BOS: Yankees hand a 4-2 lead to Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the ninth, but Mo gives up a Kevin Youkilis single and two-run Jason Bay home-run that tie the game. Youkilis later wins it with a solo homer off Damaso Marte in the bottom of the 11th.

April 25 @ BOS: The Yanks take a 6-0 lead on Josh Beckett, but A.J. Burnett gives up eight runs in the fourth and fifth innings combined. The lead changes hands four more times as the two teams combined to score another 13 runs in the six, seventh, and eighth. Jose Veras, Phil Coke, Jonathan Albaladejo (who gets the loss), Edwar Ramirez, and David Robertson combine to allow eight runs in three innings and when the smoke clears, the Red Sox are the victors by a 16-11 final.

April 26 @ BOS: The Red Sox win a 4-1 game when they score three runs in the fifth off Andy Pettitte. The three runners that score all reach base on walks (one intentional), and all three score with two outs, including Jacoby Ellsbury, who steals home. The Yankees go 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position against Justin Masterson and Takashi Saito and fail to put a runner on base against Hunter Jones or Michael Bowden.

May 4 @ NY: The Red Sox score one run in each of starter Phil Hughes’ four innings. Alfredo Aceves is dominant in relief, but serves up a two-run homer to Bay in the seventh that proves to be the difference. Jon Lester holds the Yankees to a three-run fifth later supplemented by a Mark Teixeira solo homer off Ramon Ramirez (Tex’s second solo homer of the game). Sox win 6-4.

May 5 @ NY: Joba Chamberlain allows four runs in the first only to settle down and strike out 12, but those four are enough as Beckett, Hideki Okajima, and Saito limit the Yankees to a three-run dinger by Damon in the sixth. The Sox get some insurance off Albaladejo, Mark Melancon, and Robertson in the final two innings to win 7-3.

June 9 @ BOS: Josh Beckett allows just one hit in six innings and Manny Delcarmen, Ramirez, and Daniel Bard allow just one more in the final three. Meanwhile, Burnett is bounced in the third and the Sox cruise to a 7-0 win.

June 10 @ BOS: In just his second start since April, Chien-Ming Wang matches Burnett by lasting just 2 2/3 innings. Phil Hughes struggles in long relief and the Sox are up 6-2 after four. The Yankees scrape out three more runs against Tim Wakefield and Ramirez, but fall short, losing 6-5 after going 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position.

June 11 @ BOS: Trailing 1-0 for most of the game due to a second-inning solo shot by David Ortiz, the Yankees break open a pitchers duel between CC Sabathia and Brad Penny with three off Ramirez in the seventh keyed by doubles by Francisco Cervelli and Alex Rodriguez. On his way to throwing 123 pitches, CC Sabathia gives one run back in the top of the eighth. Aceves then comes in with the tying and winning runs on base and lets them both in as the Yanks fall 4-3.

Boston offense: .287/.406/.515, 13 HR, 10-for-13 SB, 6.88 R/G
Yankee offense: .267/.347/.420, 10 HR, 9-for-9 SB, 3.88 R/G

Notable performances:

Jason Bay (.448/.568/.897, 3 HR)
Kevin Youkilis (.375/.531/.667)
David Ortiz (.321/.432/.679)
Jacoby Ellsbury (.400/.455/.650, 6 SB)
Mark Teixeira (.290/.436/.645, 3 HR)
Hideki Matsui (.450/.500/.550)
Jorge Posada (.350/.500/.500)
. . .
Alex Rodriguez (.100/.308/.200, 1-for-10)
Jason Varitek (.074/.188/.185, 2-for-27)

Boston pitching: 3.53 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8.15 K/9, 4.01 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.03 K/BB
Yankee pitching: 6.06 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 8.56 K/9, 6.32 BB/9, 1.7 HR/9, 1.35 K/BB

Notable performances:

Takashi Saito (4 1/3 IP, 0 R, 0.69 WHIP)
Phil Coke (4 1/3 IP, 0 R, 0.69 WHIP)
Jonathan Papelbon (5 2/3 IP, 0 R, 3 SV)
. . .
A.J. Burnett (2 GS, 12.91 ERA, 2.74 WHIP)
Ramon Ramirez (3 1/3 IP, 8.10 ERA, 2.70 WHIP, 3 HR)
Hideki Okajima (4 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP)
Manny Delcarmen (4 2/3 IP, 5.79 ERA, 2.14 WHIP)

What’s the take away here? You can blame the Yankee bullpen for the first two losses and the last (or Joe Girardi for going too long with his starter in the second and last games), and blame the offense for the third, but the Red Sox were the better team in every way for the other four. Meanwhile, the aggregate stats show that the Yankee hurlers have been walking too many men and giving up too many home runs, while the Yankee bats have performed poorly with runners on base given the Red Sox’s weak WHIP but strong ERA.

The good news is that the Yankees won’t be throwing their fifth starter in this series, and Jason Bay, the best hitter in the series to this point, is out for at least the first two games with a sore hamstring. Then again, if Terry Francona wants to get really creative, he could use Kevin Youkilis in the outfield (where he’s played 20 errorless games in his career) and Victor Martinez at first base to make up for the loss of Bay. Martinez has started three of four games at first base since joining the Sox, with Youkilis shifting to third on those occasions and Martinez catching in the one exception. Martinez is 10-for-21 with two doubles and a homer as a Red Sock. You can read my thoughts on the Martinez deal and the other players it impacts (Youkilis, Lowell, Ortiz, and Varitek) here.

Finally, before I get to the Red Sox roster, here’s how the Yankees have changed since last leaving Boston on June 11:

• Eric Hinske has replaced Brett Gardner (DL)
• Jerry Hairston Jr. has replaced Angel Berroa
• Jose Molina (DL) has replaced Francisco Cervelli (minors)
• Anthony Claggett (minors) has replaced Ramiro Peña (minors) unless Peña is brought back before game time tonight
• Brian Bruney (DL) has replaced Jose Veras
• Sergio Mitre (minors) has replaced Chien-Ming Wang (DL)
• Mark Melancon (minors) has replaced Brett Tomko

Boston Red Sox

2009 Record: 62-44 (.585)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 62-44 (.585)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Fenway Park (108/106)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Victor Martinez has replaced George Kottaras (DL)
• Jed Lowrie (DL) has replaced Julio Lugo
• Casey Kotchman has replaced Mark Kotsay
• John Smoltz (DL) has replaced Tim Wakefield (DL)
• Clay Buchholz (minors) has replaced Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL)
• Billy Traber (minors) has replaced Justin Masterson

25-man Roster:

1B – Victor Martinez (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Jed Lowrie (S)
3B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
C – Jason Varitek (C)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF – Jason Bay (R)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Lowell (3B)
R – Nick Green (SS)
R – Rocco Baldelli (OF)
L – Casey Kotchman (1B)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
R – Clay Buchholz
L – Jon Lester
R – Brad Penny
R – John Smoltz

Bullpen:

R – Jonathan Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Manny Delcarmen
R – Ramon Ramirez
R – Takashi Saito
R – Dan Bard
L – Billy Traber

15-day DL:

RHP – Tim Wakefield (old)
1B – Jeff Bailey
C – George Kottaras

60-day DL:

RHP – Daisuke Matsuzaka (suck)
RHP – Miguel Gonzalez (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Victor Martinez (1B/C)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B/3B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
S – Jason Varitek (C)
S – Jed Lowrie (SS)

As for tonight’s pitching matchup, Joba Chamberlain has been nails since the All-Star break, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA and just eight hits in 21 2/3 innings. I still think he’s been a bit hit-lucky, but you can’t argue with success. It was Joba who was in line for the win in the first game of this series before Mo blew the save, and his last 4 2/3 innings against Boston produced this line: 4 2/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K. On his career, Joba is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in four relief appearances and four starts against the Red Sox. He’s as good a choice as anyone to help break the spell tonight.

Opposing Joba is a pitcher 18-years his senior, John Smoltz. The 42-year-old Smoltz’s Red Sox career has thus far had the feel of Joe Namath on the Rams, or in baseball terms, Warren Spahn on the Mets. He has yet to turn in a quality start in seven tries and the Red Sox are 2-5 in games he has started. Over his last three starts, two of which came against the Orioles, he’s posted a 9.18 ERA and allowed six home runs. Opponents are hitting .323/.356/.535 against him on the season. He’s not walking anyone, and he’s still getting his strikeouts, but he’s also throwing a whole lot of hittable pitches that his opponents aren’t missing. It could be that Smoltz has been a bit hit-unlucky. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see the future Hall of Famer and legendary big-game stud (15-4, 2.65 ERA, 194 Ks in 207 postseason innings) find his old form against the Yankees tonight, but that would be a decided divergence from his performance to this point.

Usual suspects in the Yankee lineup tonight. Francona has indeed put Youkilis in left field, but Martinez is catching with fellow deadline addition Casey Kotchman playing first base. Varitek rides pine.

I’ve been traveling a bunch over the past couple of weeks, doing a lot of driving. Naturally, since radio stinks and I don’t feel like listening to the same CDs on a loop, I fall into the sports talk radio trap. All I wanted to do yesterday on my drive to Pennsylvania was get into some Yankees-Red Sox chatter and analysis, since Aug. 6 has been marked on the calendar since the two teams were tied atop the AL East at the All-Star break.

Instead, I got drivel from Craig Carton about how last night’s game was a “look-ahead” or trap game, that it was irrelevant in the grand scheme. This, we all know, is ridiculous, because the victory combined with the Sox’ loss gives a 2 1/2 game cushion heading into the weekend. On ESPN Radio, I got next to nothing on Yankees-Red Sox ALL DAY. It was so bad that for two hours during the afternoon drive, Don LaGreca and Ian O’Connor, who were pinch-hitting for Michael Kay, were discussing why Eli Manning is not a beloved quarterback in New York and comparing his numbers to Joe Namath. Yes, for two hours.

(I don’t know about you, but as a fan I can’t really get into football until the Yankees are done. Let the Met-Jet fans get excited about football season now. They’ve got nothing else to root for. At this point, I don’t care about Manning’s contract or where he ranks among other NFL quarterbacks or debating the merits of his contract. It’s all about Yankees-Red Sox, dammit. Where are the priorities?)

Thank you to WFAN’s Evan Roberts and Joe Benigno for getting me through a crawling jam on the Belt Parkway during afternoon rush hour. They didn’t spend a lot of time on Yankees-Sox, but Roberts made a point to mention that this weekend is all about CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. One caller asked to compare the Yankees’ record during their starts to the Red Sox’ record when Josh Beckett and John Lester have started. The Sox have a four-game edge — 30-13 to 26-18. In terms of the pitchers’ records, Beckett and Lester are a combined 22-11, while Sabathia and Burnett are a combined 21-12, an even one-game difference.

Roberts, who I covered many games with and for whom I have a great deal of respect, opined that neither Sabathia nor Burnett have performed to the “ace” level at which they’re being paid to perform. I will grant that based on the aforementioned records that may be true. All but Beckett are considered to be having off-years. Roberts went on to say that Sabathia and Burnett haven’t been “lockdown guys;” that if you polled Yankee fans if they have confidence the Yankees will win when Sabathia or Burnett are pitching, they’d say no.

I disagree on both counts.

First, let’s address the “ace” comment. I raised an eyebrow at this one because superficially, it seemed that the argument was solely based on wins and losses. We as an intelligent fan base know that straight W-L record is not the best way to deem a pitcher’s effectiveness. Is Sabathia’s ERA outstanding? At 3.95, I’d say no. The fact that he’s averaged 7 innings per start this season gives me reason to think he’s been the workhorse he was advertised to be. He’s been involved in many close games where the offense has faltered. In all but four games he’s been good enough to put the team in position to win. Last Sunday’s start at Chicago was particularly impressive, not for the stats, but that he gutted out a victory when he didn’t have his best stuff. Being an “ace” is based as much on mentality as it is physical prowess and talent.

With Burnett, it all depends on his control. The concern is can he hold a lead? He blew the 5-run lead at Fenway earlier this year, in one of the many games the Yankees should have won against Boston. Does that mean he can’t beat the Red Sox? Hardly. He’s 5-1 against them in his career. He’ll have a couple more chances to beat them this year.

To say that Sabathia hasn’t beaten the Sox this year is accurate, but he’s only had one chance. Not everyone is going to do what Randy Johnson did in 2005 — go 5-0 against Boston (and he did not pitch well in some of those games). Burnett’s debacle in Chicago last Saturday broke a string of eight consecutive quality starts. Combined, he and Sabathia have 24 quality starts. Even aces aren’t going to be great every time out.

Of course, the entire discussion was based on the Yankees’ 0-8 record against the Red Sox this season. The Red Sox supposedly “have their number.” Again, to that I call B.S. Three losses were by one run — including one in extra innings — and they held leads in at least half of those games. The failure was by the team as a whole.

Here’s the set-up: Chamberlain, Burnett, Sabathia, and Pettitte. Throwing the 0-8 aside, I like the Yankees’ chances. They have the rotation aligned perfectly to increase the gap between them and the Red Sox. Now, it’s a matter of executing.

I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait to see how it unfolds.

April 6 to May 7

Red Sox 18-11 (.621)
Yankees 13-15 (.464)

May 8 to June 8

Yankees 21-8 (.724)
Red Sox 15-13 (.536)

Take out their five head-to-head games, and the Yankees outplayed the Sox against neutral opponents during the season’s first month as well (13-10 to 13-11). Having taken series from all of the league’s other winning teams (the Rays, Jays, Rangers, Tigers, and Angels), all the Yankees have left to prove in the first half of this season is that they can beat the Red Sox head-to-head.

Not that it is likely to matter in the short run. As I wrote in my initial Red Sox preview in April, since the implementation of the unbalanced schedule in 2001, the season series between these two teams hasn’t put one team in the playoffs while keeping the other out, and all signs point to both making it to the postseason again this year. Still, bragging rights are fun, and despite the Yankees’ dominance of the league over the past month, the Red Sox still hold them.

The big news in Boston is that David Ortiz seems to have gone from hero to zero for realsies, forcing Terry Francona to drop him to sixth in the order. Ortiz actually enters this series on a six-game hitting streak and hit his second homer of the year on Saturday, but he’s still hitting just .197/.288/.308 on the season. I had figured Ortiz for a quick decline following his wrist injury last year, but I never thought he’d just vanish like this, which probably means he’ll pull out of it. Just look at Jason Varitek. The Red Sox’s catcher looked washed up last year when he hit .220/.313/.359 at age 36, but he has rebounded this year, hitting a solid .247/.337/.519 with ten homers.

Despite Ortiz’s vanishing act, what the Sox have done well this season is hit (fourth in the majors in runs scored per game) and pitch out of the bullpen (major league best 2.76 pen ERA). What they have not done well is field (second-worst defensive efficiency in the AL) and start games (fifth-worst starters ERA in baseball at 5.02).

Tonight’s starter, Josh Beckett, leads the Sox rotation with a 4.09 ERA and is the only Boston start to have an ERA below league average. Beckett had a terrible April, including allowing eight runs in five innings to the Yankees at Fenway on April 25, but he’s been awesome in May, going 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA in six starts and posting a 0.40 ERA across 22 2/3 innings over his last three starts.

A.J. Burnett, who helped turned that April Beckett blow-up into a Red Sox win by also allowing eight runs in five innings, again starts against his former Marlins rotationmate. In his six starts from that first match-up against Beckett through his return to Toronto on May 12, Burnett went 0-2 with a 6.34 ERA, but he rebounded nicely in his last two starts, both wins over Texas. In those two games, he posted a combined line of 13 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 5 BB, 15 K. Some more of that would help get the Yankees’ reboot off this series off on the right foot.

Boston Red Sox

2009 Record: 33-24 (.579)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 33-24 (.579)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Fenway Park (108/106)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Mark Kotsay (DL) replaces Jeff Bailey (minors)
• Rocco Baldelli (DL) replaces Jonathan Van every (minors)
• Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL) replaces Hunter Jones (minors)
• Dan Bard (minors) replaces Javier Lopez (minors)

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Julio Lugo (R)
3B – Mike Lowell (R)
C – Jason Varitek (C)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF – Jason Bay (R)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Rocco Baldelli (OF)
L – Mark Kotsay (OF/1B)
R – Nick Green (IF)
L – George Kottaras (C)

Rotation:

L – Jon Lester
R – Josh Beckett
R – Tim Wakefield
R – Brad Penny
R – Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bullpen:

R – Jonathan Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Manny Delcarmen
R – Justin Masterson
R – Ramon Ramirez
R – Takashi Saito
R – Dan Bard

15-day DL:

SS – Jed Lowrie (wrist surgery)
RHP – John Smoltz (shoulder surgery)

60-day DL:

RHP – Miguel Gonzalez (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
R – Mike Lowell (3B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
S – Jason Varitek (C)
L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Nick Green (SS)

• The Yankees slashed prices for the primo seats, an altruistic move that still leaves many of us thinking, “You know, you have your own network, and it’s on my cable system. I’ll contribute to your bottom line that way and I won’t feel like I got stabbed in the wallet.”

• Alex Rodriguez did everything necessary in extended spring training and returned to the lineup Friday. He punctuated the return with a home run on the first pitch he saw, thus fulfilling his job as the media-anointed savior of the team’s season. He proceeded to go 1-for-10 with two strikeouts in the remainder of the series, and perhaps fearing aggravating the hip injury, didn’t hustle down the line to run out a ground ball, thus reclaiming his role as the team’s most prominent punching bag.

• The Yankees lost two straight to the Red Sox at home and have lost the first five meetings of the season. (Sound the alarms! Head for the hills! There’s no way the Yankees can win the division without beating the Red Sox! Except that they can, and they have. In 2004, the Yankees went 1-6 in their first seven games against the BoSox, ended up losing the season series 8-11 and still finished 101-61 to win the American League East by three games.)

• Joba Chamberlain 1: His mother was arrested for allegedly selling crystal meth to an undercover officer. Following Chamberlain’s own brushes with the law during the offseason, it stood to reason that the tabloids attacked this story like starving coyotes. It’s remarkable that he was able to pitch at all given the negative attention he received.

• Joba Chamberlain 2: Flash back to Aug. 13, 2007. Chamberlain struck out Orioles first baseman Aubrey Huff in a crucial late-inning at-bat to end the inning and in the heat of the moment pumped his fist in exultation. Yesterday, following a three-run home run in the first inning that gave the O’s a 3-1 lead, Huff mocked Chamberlain’s emotional outburst with his own fist pump, first while rounding first base, and again when crossing home plate. Apparently, Mr. Huff holds grudges. Thanks to the New York Daily News’s headline, “MOCKING BIRD” with a photo of the home-plate celebration, this story will have wings when Baltimore comes to the Bronx next week. Even better, as it currently stands, Chamberlain is due to start in the series finale on Thursday the 21st. Get ready for a rash of redux stories leading up to that game.

• Mariano Rivera surrendered back-to-back home runs for the first time in his career last Wednesday night, a clear signal that something is wrong. Maybe.

• The team as a whole. The Yankees are 15-16 through 31 games, and some rabid fans (the “Spoiled Set,” as Michael Kay likes to call them; the group of fans between ages 18-30 that only knows first-place finishes for the Yankees) are calling for Joe Girardi’s head. As in the above note on the Red Sox, some context is required. The Yankees’ records through 31 games this decade:

2000: 22-9 (finished 87-74, won AL East)
2001: 18-13 (finished 95-65, won AL East)
2002: 18-13 (finished 103-58, won AL East)
2003: 23-8 (finished 101-61, won AL East)
2004: 18-13 (finished 101-61, won AL East)
2005: 12-19 (finished 95-67, won AL East)
2006: 19-12 (finished 97-65, won AL East)
2007: 15-16 (finished 94-68, won AL Wild Card)
2008: 15-16 (finished 89-73, missed playoffs)
2009: 15-16 (finish TBD)

No one is going to make excuses for the team with the billion dollar stadium and the highest payroll, least of all your trusted scribes here at the Banter. Looking at the last three years — including 2009 — it should be noted that similar issues of injury, age, and woes throughout the pitching staff have befallen the Yankees.

But in the same way announcers like to tout the “baseball card theory” with players who get off to slow starts and end up reaching or eclipsing their career averages, it stands to reason that the Yankees will reach at least 90 wins despite their slow start and myriad problems. A closer examination of the above list reveals that the Yankees averaged 92.7 wins per season in the three years they reached the 31-game threshold at or below .500. That is a testament to the overall talent of the players, and to the manager. It may not have made a difference if Joe Girardi, Joe Torre, Don Mattingly, Larry Bowa or Lou Piniella was managing this team. Given everything, a 15-16 record might be the best this team could have achieved to this point. As Joe Auriemma wrote on YESNetwork.com last week, you are what your record says you are.

• The release date for Selena Roberts’ biography on Alex Rodriguez was jumped to last Monday, May 4. The local broadcasters had a field day with the reviews (more on this below).

The combination of all those stories led to information and sensory overload. The dead horse couldn’t have been beaten any more, on any story. The question I tried to answer in examining all of this was: Which story was covered the best?

The winner: the Selena Roberts A-Rod book fallout. Taking a panoramic view — I can’t examine this with a magnifying glass since I haven’t read the book yet — the analysis not only of the book but of Roberts’ journalism was excellent. It got me thinking that the New York media are at their best when they attempt to discredit someone.

An invasive round of questioning regarded the issue of pitch tipping. To wit: On his interview with Roberts, SNY’s Gary Apple rightly asked who her sources were regarding incidents she documented during A-Rod’s time in Texas. Roberts answered, “They’re people who would know. Obviously I can’t tell you who they were. … They were people (with the Rangers) who saw him every day.” Apple followed by asking if she was as confident in the pitch tipping story as she was in A-Rod’s steroid usage. She said, “Absolutely.” Apple asked the tough questions and Roberts volleyed them right back, a theme throughout her New York junket.

Perhaps the most contentious interview came last Monday on WFAN, when Boomer Esiason and Craig Carton questioned Roberts’ overall credibility based on her coverage of the Duke Lacrosse case when she was a New York Times columnist. The morning duo agreed that Roberts covered the Duke case in a one-sided manner (DISCLAIMER: That is not my opinion; I am recounting the Boomer and Carton opinion), but while Esiason couldn’t get past that, Carton believed Roberts was the authority on A-Rod’s steroid usage, based on her February report in Sports Illustrated.

The additional details of the book angered the hosts. Esiason asked about the purpose of the book, and Carton asked her if she had “an axe to grind” with Rodriguez and was seeking to get wealthy based on the book’s salacious contents. Both grilled Roberts on the pitch tipping and asked if the other acts — wearing a Yankee hat into a strip club and tipping 15% at Hooter’s — were worth inclusion. All were valid questions, and Roberts, to her credit, defended herself without getting defensive. She even took the high road, giving Esiason and Carton credit for making good points, when the hosts weren’t necessarily as willing to give her points. Esiason, his words dripping with sarcasm, remarked, “Maybe Alex Rodriguez will read this book and take something out of it to turn his life around.” Roberts’ response: “You know, that’s a great point.” Esiason cut her off before she could finish the sentence and said, “Let’s not get crazy there, Selena.” Was the condescension necessary?

On the national front, Allen Barra’s review at Salon.com, which Diane Firstman excerpted in this space on Saturday, was spot-on in terms of his analysis of her knowledge base of PEDs, advanced stats, and standard operating procedure of the players’ union. All are subjects which Roberts should have researched in depth, especially if they enhanced the message she was trying to send through the book.

The Bob Costas MLB Network interview did little but leave one to wonder why MLB would devote an hour program to a book that, on the surface, destroys the legacy of one of its greatest players (prior to his steroid usage).

Roberts’ SI colleague Tom Verducci, himself the author of a controversial Yankee book that took Alex Rodriguez to task, predictably defended her protection of anonymous sources.

There was one hole for me in all the coverage: there was, in some cases, an overt gender bias in the analysis. In particular, the Esiason-Carton interview at times reeked of a “she’s a woman and shouldn’t be allowed in the locker room” tone. If we’re looking to get answers and call out your interview subject’s credibility, presenting your own agenda during the process does nothing to enhance your own credibility.

And why did no reporter, writer, or talkie comment on Girardi’s statement of “I don’t understand why anyone would write a book like that?” Girardi has an engineering degree from Northwestern. He played arguably the most intellectual position on the baseball field during his career. He is a smart man, yet he made himself sound like a simpleton. Worse, Girardi painted Roberts in a dark light without having read the book or talking to Roberts to get the full story.

Do you agree or disagree with the assessments above? Which story was the preeminent story of the past two weeks? Are you tired of all of it? Which was covered the best and why? Your feedback is respected and appreciated.

Until next week …