Despite the departures of John Lackey and Chone Figgins, the Angels were my pre-season pick to win the American League West, but with the Rangers’ 4.5-game lead and recent acquisition of Cliff Lee, I can’t see the second place halos catching up. Obviously, I didn’t anticipate Kendry Morales’ suffering a season-ending broken leg during a walk-off celebration at home plate on May 29. Nor did I expect that third baseman Brandon Wood would be such a total bust at the plate (.168/.185/.225). The Angels appeared to solve their hot corner problem with former Giants second base prospect Kevin Frandsen, but Frandsen has hit just .136/.200/.162 since June 30 and is a far inferior fielder to Wood.

I expected better things from ex-Yankees Hideki Matsui, who is making the Bombers look bright for letting him go by hitting just .249/.329/.393 and slugging just .359 since the end of April, and Bobby Abreu, who’s .259/.351/.412 is his worst across the board since he was a rookie with the Astros last century.

I also expected better things from the Anaheim rotation, which I repeatedly described as “five deep.” Jeff Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Joel Piñeiro seemed like a solid quintet in April, but Kazmir has been awful (6.92 ERA, 1.22 K/BB) and just hit the disabled list with a bum shoulder, and Saunders has been erratic (4.83 ERA, 1.32 K/BB).

As a team, the Angels have been below average in both runs scored and runs allowed this season and, despite their 50-45 record entering this series, they have been out-scored on the season. That’s a large part of the reason that I think the AL West race is over: the Rangers are the only team in the division with a positive run differential and they just got better with the addition of Lee.

Sean O’Sullivan takes Kazmir’s spot in the rotation tonight. A 22-year-0ld righty, O’Sullivan posted a 5.92 ERA in ten starts and two relief appearances  as a rookie last year. This year, he’s made just four relief appearances in the majors (albeit with good results), and had a 4.76 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts.

O’Sullivan will face Phil Hughes, who last pitched at Angel Stadium, taking the loss in the All-Star game by giving up singles to two of the three batters he faced. Hughes ended the first half with a strong outing against the punchless Mariners (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K), but had just one quality start in his previous four outings (7.03 ERA). With Andy Pettitte heading to the DL with a groin injury that will keep him out until the end of August, the Yankees need Hughes to get back on track.

Pettitte officially goes on the DL tonight. Expect Jonathan Albaladejo, who has been dominating out of the Scranton pen, to take his spot for now, with another move being made Saturday to allow Sergio Mitre to be activated to take Pettitte’s place in the rotation (though I’d rather see Mitre return to the bullpen and Ivan Nova get that chance).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2010 Record: 50-45 (.526)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 46-49 (.484)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark: Angel Stadium

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-104, LH HR-94
RH Avg-102, RH HR-107

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Jeff Mathis (DL) has replaced Kendry Morales (DL)
• Kevin Frandsen has replaced Brandon Wood at third base and Robb Quinlan (minors) on the roster
• Cory Aldridge is currently the 26th man on the roster
• Sean O’Sullivan (minors) has replaced Scott Kazmir (DL)
• Trevor Bell (minors) has replaced Matt Palmer (DL)
• Francisco Rodriguez and Rich Thompson (both minors) have replaced Jason Bulger and Brian Stokes (both DL)

25-man roster:

1B – Mike Napoli (R)
2B – Howie Kendrick (S)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Kevin Frandsen (R)
C – Jeff Mathis (R)
RF – Bobby Abreu (L)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
R – Brandon Wood (IF)
L – Cory Aldridge (OF)
R – Bobby Wilson (C)

Rotation:

R – Jered Weaver
L – Joe Saunders
R – Ervin Santana
R- Trevor Bell or Sean O’Sullivan
R – Joel Piñeiro

Bullpen:

L – Brian Fuentes
R – Fernando Rodney
R – Scot Shields
R – Kevin Jepsen
R – Francisco Rodriguez
R – Rich Thompson

15-day DL:

1B – Kendry Morales (broken left leg)
LHP – Scott Kazmir (strained left shoulder)
RHP – Matt Palmer (right shoulder sprain)
RHP – Jason Bulger (strained right shoulder)
RHP – Brian Stokes (right shoulder fatigue)
RHP – Anthony Ortega (triceps tendonitis)

60-day DL:

OF – Chris Pettit (labrum surgery)

Lineup:

S – Erick Aybar (SS)
R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
L – Bobby Abreu (RF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
R – Juan Rivera (LF)
R – Mike Napoli (1B)
R – Kevin Frandsen (3B)
R – Jeff Mathis (C)

Tonight erratic stuff-misers A.J. Burnett and Ervin Santana face off. Burnett has gotten better in each of his starts in the early going and is coming off seven impressive shutout innings against Texas on Saturday. Santana lost his first two starts–one of which came in the Bronx and saw him give up five runs on five walks and eight hits (including solo homers by Nick Johnson and Derek Jeter)–but is coming off a sharp, 106-pitch complete game win against Toronto in which he walked none while allowing just one run on another solo homer (by Adam Lind). I’ll be impressed if either can manage a second straight dominant outing tonight.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2010 Record: 8-9 (.471)
2010 Pythagorean Record: 7-10 (.412)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark: Angel Stadium

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-104, LH HR-94
RH Avg-102, RH HR-107

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Robb Quinlan (minors) has replaced Jeff Mathis (DL)
• Reggie Willits (DL) has replaced Terry Evans (minors)
• Scott Kazimir (DL) has replaced Bobby Cassevah (minors) by pushing Matt Palmer to the bullpen

25-man roster:

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Howie Kendrick (S)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Brandon Wood (R)
C – Mike Napoli (R)
RF – Bobby Abreu (L)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
R – Robb Quinlan (4C)
R – Bobby Wilson (C)

Rotation:

R – Jered Weaver
L – Joe Saunders
R – Ervin Santana
R – Joel Piñeiro
L – Scott Kazmir

Bullpen:

L – Brian Fuentes
R – Scot Shields
R – Fernando Rodney
R – Kevin Jepsen
R – Jason Bulger
R – Brian Stokes
R – Matt Palmer

Lineup:

S – Erick Aybar (SS)
L – Bobby Abreu (RF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Juan Rivera (LF)
R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
R – Mike Napoli (C)
R – Brandon Wood (3B)

15-day DL:

C – Jeff Mathis (fractured wrist)
OF – Chris Pettit (labrum surgery)
RHP – Anthony Ortega (triceps tendonitis)

Here’s the thing. I still think the Angels are going to repeat as division champions this year. For one thing, though they didn’t resign Guerrero, they did sign Hideki Matsui for a mere $6 million, and to my eyes, that’s an upgrade. Matsui’s actually eight months older than Guerrero, and both have a lot of mileage on their bodies and have struggled with injuries in recent years, but Guerrero, who signed for $6.5 million plus an option with division rival Texas, just looked used-up last year, playing in just 100 games and failing to reach 20 homers or walks. After leading the league in intentional walks in each of the previous four years, Guerrero was passed intentionally just three times in 2009, damning evidence that the Impaler’s blade has dulled significantly.

Matsui, meanwhile, arrives in L.A. coming off one of his best seasons. Both seem capable of replicating Matsui’s career line of .292/.370/.483 if healthy, but I think Guerrero will need the help of his new park to get there, while Matsui can do it on his own. The catch is that Mike Scioscia has already given Matsui a start in left field. If he continues to do that every so often, the chances of Matsui staying healthy are significantly reduced (not to mention the effect of his two bad knees on the Angels’ defense).

As for Lackey, the Angels replaced him last July when they acquired Scott Kazmir from the Rays for three prospects including Sean Rodriguez. Kazmir is ably filling Lackey’s shoes by starting the season on the disabled list, which Lackey did each of the last two seasons. When he returns, Kazmir will give the Halos a young, hard-throwing lefty to complete a five-deep rotation that also includes Jered Weaver, lefty Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and free agent addition Joel Pineiro, the last of whom is the only of the five Angels starters to have reached his thirties. None of those guys is an ace, but Weaver and Kazmir can be number-twos, Saunders and the groundballing Pineiro slot in well at three and four, and the erratic Santana has front-end potential as evidenced by his strong 2008 campaign which earned him his first All-Star selection and even a few Cy Young votes. Hidden in Santana’s 2009 numbers is the 3.18 ERA he posted over his last 11 starts, much in the same way that Kazmir’s unimpressive 2009 figures mask a strong second half in which he posted a 3.27 ERA and a 1.73 mark after becoming an Angel.

The depth of that rotation is a large part of the reason that I believe the Angels are going to repeat, but their lineup is still solid as well. Only the Yankees scored more runs than the Angels in 2009, and with Matsui replacing Guerrero, the only real change is the loss of Figgins. It remains to be seen if Erick Aybar will be an out machine while taking Figgins’ place atop the order, but things are solid behind him, with Abreu getting on base in the two-hole and Torii Hunter, Matsui, and Kendry Morales lining up to drive him in. If Aybar can hit for enough average to prop up his OBP, and Brandon Wood, who replaces Figgins at third base and opens the season batting eighth, can deliver on his considerable power potential (the 25-year-old slugged .541 in the minors and averaged just shy of 29 homers a year over his last five minor league seasons), the Angels should actually be better without Figgins than they were with him. Those are big “if”s, of course, but the Angels have room for error given their production last year.

That’s another big part of the reason that I like the Angels to repeat as AL West Champions. Last year, they won the division by ten games over the Rangers and 12 games over what I believe was an over-achieving Mariners team (one that allowed the fewest runs in the league but was still outscored on the season). Despite all of the noise they made in the offseason, I don’t believe that the Mariners are meaningfully better, and I have my doubts about the Rangers as well (the Yankees open a series against Texas on Friday, so I’ll save my thoughts on them for then). Even if one or both of those teams did manage to improve by a couple of games and the Angels are a couple of games worse, the Angels still come out on top. Worried about the fact that the Angels beat their Pythagorean record by five games last year? Well the Rangers beat theirs by two and the Mariners beat theirs by ten. Using the Pythagorean standings, the Angels still won the AL West by eight games last year. I just don’t think any of the other three teams can close that gap.

The 2010 Angels are not a 97-win team headed for the American League Championship Series, but to my eyes they’re clearly the best of an underwhelming lot in their undersized division. They’re unspectacular, but they’re solid throughout. Their bullpen should benefit from the return of veteran set-up ace Scot Shields, who missed most of 2009 due to knee surgery, and though they lack major stars, both their rotation and lineup are deep (on days that Mike Napoli catches, the Angels have seven hitters capable of exceeding 20 home runs in a season and a different group of seven that had on-base percentages of .350 or above in 2009). These aren’t the Angels that gave the Yankees fits in the just-completed decade. This is a slower, more conventional team, but it’s still a good one.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2009 Record: 97-65 (.599)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (.568)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark: Angel Stadium

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-104, LH HR-94
RH Avg-102, RH HR-107

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Hideki Matsui replaces Vladimir Guerrero
• Brandon Wood inherits Chone Figgins’ playing time
• Terry Evans inherits Gary Matthews Jr.’s playing time
• Scott Kazmir replaces John Lackey
• Joel Pineiro replaces the starts of Sean O’Sullivan (minors), Shane Loux, Trevor Bell (minors), Dustin Moseley, and others including Matt Palmer, who is currently filling in for Kazmir (DL)
• Scot Shields reclaims Darren Oliver’s innings
• Fernando Rodney replaces Jose Arredondo
• Brian Stokes replaces Justin Speier
• Bobby Cassevah replaces Robb Quinlan

25-man roster:

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Howie Kendrick (S)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Brandon Wood (R)
C – Jeff Mathis (R)
RF – Bobby Abreu (L)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Napoli (C)
S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
R – Terry Evans (OF)
R – Bobby Wilson (C)

Rotation:

R – Jered Weaver
L – Joe Saunders
R – Ervin Santana
R – Joel Pineiro
R – Matt Palmer

Bullpen:

L – Brian Fuentes
R – Scot Shields
R – Fernando Rodney
R – Kevin Jepsen
R – Jason Bulger
R – Brian Stokes
R – Bobby Cassevah

Lineup:

S – Erick Aybar (SS)
L – Bobby Abreu (RF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Juan Rivera (LF)
R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
R – Brandon Wood (3B)
R – Jeff Mathis (C)

15-day DL:

LHP – Scott Kazmir (right hamstring)
RHP – Anthony Ortega (triceps tendonitis)
OF – Reggie Willits (right hamstring)
OF – Chris Pettit (labrum surgery)

When the decade began, the idea of a Yankees-Angels rivalry seemed laughable. The Yankees were on their way to their fourth world championship in five years and the Angels hadn’t made the postseason since 1986. Then came 2002. Having come two outs from a fifth title in 2001, the Yankees won the AL East for the fifth year in a row and were matched up against a surprising 99-win Wild Card team from Anaheim in the first round. The Yankees were the clear favorites, but after pulling out a come-from-behind win in Game One thanks to an eighth-inning homer by Bernie Williams, they were swept in the next three games by the relentless Angels, who went on to win the franchise’s first pennant and world championship.

A losing season in 2003 seemed to paint the Halos as a fluke, but they came storming back in 2004 and won their division. Since then, the Angels have won the AL West in five of the last six years, went 30-18 against the Yankees from 2004 to 2008, and beat the Yankees in the ALDS again in 2005 in a nerve-wracking series that saw the Yankees blow fifth-inning leads in Games Two and Three and lose Game Five in large part because of an outfield collision between Gary Sheffield and Bubba Crosby that allowed two runs to score.

It was also that series that, to many minds, sealed Alex Rodriguez’s reputation as a post-season choker. Rodriguez hit .133 in the series and, representing the tying run in the ninth inning of Game Five, followed a Derek Jeter leadoff single with a back-breaking double-play. The trick was that the Angels gave Rodriguez nothing to hit, walking him six times and hitting him twice. As with that double play, Alex got himself into trouble by expanding his zone and swinging at the junk he was being offered, but he still posted a .435 on-base percentage on the series. That devilish and effective strategy came from the mind of manager Mike Scioscia, who took over the Angels in 2000 and has presided over what has been by far the franchise’s most successful decade.

The Angels seemed to have the Yankees’ number again this year when they swept them in Anaheim just before the All-Star break to take a 4-2 lead in the season series, but the Yankees, as they did to the entire league, stormed back in the second half to even the series, thus avoiding losing the season set to the Halos for the first time since 2003.

Both teams swept their way to this year’s ALCS, though the Angels did it in more convincing fashion against a superior opponent, the Red Sox, while the Yankees needed a pair of comebacks to beat the lowly Twins. For the Angels, it is their first ALCS appearance since they beat the Yankees to get there in 2005. For the Yankees, it’s their first since they were victims of the Red Sox’s groundbreaking comeback from a 0-3 deficit in games in 2004. Though both teams are postseason staples, making five of the last six, neither has reached the World Series since the Yankees out-lasted the Red Sox in the epic 2003 ALCS.

The blood isn’t nearly as bad in this matchup, but the Yankees find themselves on an unfamiliar side of this one-sided rivalry. It’s the Bombers who always come up short in this pairing. Having finally escaped the perilous best-of-five format of the Division Series, this rivalry will literally reach the next level over the next week. Though the Yankees are clearly the better team by objective measure, I expect the series will be hard-fought and heart-stopping. My official prediction is Yankees in seven, and I expect nothing less.

Lineup:

Derek Jeter (.334/.406/.465, 30 SB @ 86%)
Chone Figgins (.298/.395/.393, 42 SB @ 71%)

When broadcasters and baseball scribes talk about the Angels learning patience from Bobby Abreu, they’re primarily talking about Figgins. Chone’s previous career high was 65 walks, but this year he led the AL (besting even Abreu himself) with 101, posting a career-best .395 on-base percentage as a result. That spike in his walk rate is the only reason he even sniffs Jeter here. Derek has far more power, and Figgins, despite his speed and impressive gross stolen base total, makes too many outs on the bases (he led the majors in times caught stealing this year with 17). Another strike against Figgins is that he went hitless in the ALDS (the only other starter to go hitless in this year’s LDS was Colorado’s Clint Barmes), while Jeter crushed. Figgins did draw a walk, though.

Johnny Damon (.282/.365/.489, 24 HR, 12 SB @ 100%)
Bobby Abreu (.293/.390/.435, 15 HR, 30 SB @ 79%)

Abreu hit third for the Angels for most of the regular season, but in the LDS, Mike Scioscia moved him into what is really the most appropriate lineup spot for him, the two-hole. Bobby shed some power in 2009, but he got on base more often and stole more bases at a higher percentage this year than he did in either of his two full seasons as a Yankee and did it for a fraction of the price. Damon’s power, meanwhile, was largely a product of the new Yankee Stadium as he hit a more pedestrian .284/.349/.446 on the road. Damon’s perfect record on the bases is impressive, but he gave back a lot of those outs in the field, while Abreu improved over his dismal performance in right field for the Yankees in 2008. Also, in an inversion of the Jeter-Figgins comparison, Abreu crushed in the LDS, while Damon’s only noticeable act was his pointless dive for Brendan Harris’s triple in Game Two.

This is one of just two wins for the Angels, and suggests that the Yankees would be better off bringing back Abreu, who is four months Damon’s junior, and letting Damon walk should they be unable to land Jason Bay or Matt Holliday for left field at an acceptable price this winter. But that’s for another post . . .

Mark Teixeira (.292/.383/.565, 39 HR, 122 RBI)
Kendry Morales (.306/.355/.569, 34 HR, 108 RBI)

I juggled the middle three spots in the lineup to produce the closest comparisons. Putting Teixeira up against his replacement, Kendry Morales, was an obvious choice. Cuban defector Morales hit just .249/.302/.408 with 12 homers in 377 major league at-bats prior to 2009, but crushed in the minors, hitting .335/.374/.518 at triple-A over the last three seasons. He finally brought that production to the Show this year at age 26, but he still falls short of Teixeira, who is just three years older if Morales’s official age is accurate, due to his his deficit in on-base percentage. Also, Scioscia hits Morales fifth, giving him fewer opportunities than Teixeira has in the Yankees three-hole. With numbers this close, that matters.

Alex Rodriguez (.286/.402/.532, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 14 SB @ 88%)
Torii Hunter (.299/.366/.508, 22 HR, 90 RBI, 18 SB @ 82%)

Hunter and Rodriguez match up because both missed roughly a month due to a leg injury. Hunter played in 119 games, making 506 plate appearances; Rodriguez played in 124 getting 535. Coincidentally, both were born in July 1975. Their work on the basepaths is a wash, otherwise Rodriguez wins this one easy, as you’d expect. Also, though Torii had a big homer in Game One, Alex had a far better ALDS, which isn’t terribly predictive, but feels nice to say.

Hideki Matsui (.274/.367/.509, 28 HR, 90 RBI)
Vladimir Guerrero (.295/.334/.460, 15 HR, 50 RBI)

Another apt comparison in terms of age (Vlad is eight months younger, but seems older) and condition (both have been reduced to DH duties by a series of immobilizing injuries). However, full-time DH duty was enough to keep Matsui healthy this year as he racked up 526 plate appearances, while Guerrero still broke down, managing just 407 PA.

Despite his recent decline, Guerrero has still been worth a good ten wins more than the right fielders the Yankees have played in his place since George Steinbrenner opted to sign the 35-year-old Gary Sheffield instead of the 29-year-old Vlad prior to the 2004 season:

Despite his poor regular season, Guerrero had a good ALDS, albeit without an extra-base hit. Matsui went just 2-for-9 against the Twins, but had a home run and three walks for a superior OPS. Given that Vlad doesn’t walk much, his vanishing power gives Godzilla the edge over even a healthy Impaler.

Jorge Posada (.285/.363/.522, 22 HR, 81 RBI)
Juan Rivera (.287/.332/.478, 25 HR, 88 RBI)

Getting back to the actual Angels batting order, we have a pair of Yankee farmhands with similar triple-crown stats, though the full slash stats show Posada’s obvious superiority, ditto the fact that Posada put up his counting stats in about 150 fewer plate appearances. That said, Rivera, who seemed like a throw-in when the Yankees dealt Nick Johnson to Montreal for Javy Vazquez, has far exceeded my expectations for him. Coincidentally, both Rivera and Johnson lost most (in Nick’s case, all) of 2007 to a broken leg.

Robinson Cano (.320/.352/.520, 25 HR, 85 RBI)
Maicer Izturis (vs. RHP .290/.344/.428; 13 SB @ 72%)/Howie Kendrick (vs. LHP .313/.331/.500; 11 SB @ 73%)

None of these seventh-place hitters hit a lick in the LDS, but prior to that, Cano out-hit even the combined splits of the Angels’ second-base platoon. That said, Hendrick, demoted in mid-June while hitting .231/.281/.355, thereby opening the door for Izturis to take over the bulk of the keystone duties, hit .351/.387/.532 after returning. With the Yankees giving a potential five starts to lefties CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, Kendrick will get the majority of the at-bats at the position in this series. Kendrick is 8-for-12 career against Sabathia, a small sample, but a convincing one, which tilts this spot back toward the Angels. Still, Kendrick can’t match Cano’s power, is even less likely to draw a walk, and Cano beats Izturis easy.

Note: Izturis was better against lefties in ’09, but that was a small-sample fluke that ran counter to his career history.

Nick Swisher (.249/.371/.498, 29 HR, 82 RBI)
Jeff Mathis (.211/.288/.308)/Mike Napoli (.272/.350/.492, 20 HR, 56 RBI)

It’s not surprising that, having been one, Mike Scioscia has a weakness for defense-first catchers, but his habit of starting Mathis over Napoli defies explanation. It’s nearly equivalent to starting Jose Molina over Jorge Posada. There’s very little in their defensive stats to back up Scioscia’s preference. Mathis isn’t markedly better at throwing out runners. Napoli has hit .273/.359/.527 with 40 homers and 105 RBIs in 609 at-bats over the past two seasons, but he only plays half the time because . . . why? Edge: Swisher.

Melky Cabrera (.274/.336/.416, 10 SB @ 83%)
Erick Aybar (.312/.353/.423, 14 SB @ 67%)

The difference between the Twins and Angels is stark at the bottom of the order. The Twins ran out a bunch of over-extended bench players and minor leaguers. The Angels have real-life hitters down here (at least when Napoli starts). Aybar gives up too many outs on the bases and his slash stats are buoyed by his batting average, but Melky’s foundation feels no more firm, giving the Angels the edge here.

Bench:

Save for Jose Molina’s lone at-bat as a starter in Game Two, no Yankee other than the typical starting nine came to the plate for the Bombers in the ALDS against the Twins. Of course, that was a three-game sweep, and the ALCS is likely to last at least twice as many games. Nonetheless, the Yankees have made one change to their playoff roster, dropping Eric Hinske to add pinch-runner Freddy Guzman. That effectively leaves them with a speed and defense bench devoid of a legitimate pinch-hitting option. So Brett Gardner or Guzman could pinch-run for, say, Jorge Posada or Hideki Matsui, but if that spot in the order should come around again, Jerry Hairston Jr. would be the most attractive pinch-hitting option. That seems like bad planning. Guzman is redundant with Gardner not getting starts, but with Melky Cabrera having struggled in the Division Series (2-for-12 with 5 Ks), Girardi has implied that Gardner just might draw some starts in center in this series, as well he should. Thus Guzman takes Gardner’s place on the bench and Melky takes Hinske’s for those games.

The Angels’ bench is actually similarly constructed. Both teams are carrying three catchers, one who can rake, one who is likely to draw undeserving starts, and a rookie to back up the position should pinch-running be required. Both have a speedy white outfielder (the Angels’ is Reggie Willits, who is actually a closer match to Guzman than Gardner). Both have an athletic, but generally punchless Junior (L.A.’s is Gary Matthews). The Angels will have good bats on the bench when Jeff Mathis and Maicer Izturis are starting, but they’ll pay for it in the starting lineup. The Halos have an extra man in corner infielder Robb Quinlan, who’s rendered largely irrelevant by the fact that the starting corner infielders are productive switch-hitters, as well as by his own futility this season. Call it a draw.

Rotation:

Though Joe Girardi hasn’t made an official announcement, the  Yankees are expected to take advantage of the off-day between Games Four and Five and go with a three-man rotation, barring the very unlikely event that they find themselves up 3-0 heading into Game Four. Such a rotation would find CC Sabathia starting on short rest in Game Four, but would still allow every other game to be started by a pitcher on full rest, including Sabathia in a potential Game Seven. Having Sabathia pitch three times in the series, including in Game Seven, is absolutely the right thing to do, but the plan could be washed out by the rain in the forecast for this weekend. For that reason, the matchups beyond Game Three will likely remain a mystery until this series moves to the West Coast.

LHP CC Sabathia (3.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 34 GS, 21 QS)
RHP John Lackey (3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.96 K/BB, 27 GS, 16 QS)

Sabathia is the best pitcher on either team, but the Angels beat him both times they faced him this year, both times scoring five runs in 6 2/3 innings. However, both games came prior to the All-Star break, and Sabathia found another gear in August, going 8-0 with a 1.62 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 4.21 K/BB in the ten-starts prior to his regular-season closing stinker. CC proved that final start a fluke in Game One against the admittedly weaker-hitting Twins, sloughing off his recent postseason struggles in the process. John Lackey beat CC on July 12, but that was then. Of greater concern was Lackey’s strong performance against the Red Sox in Game One of the ALDS. Edge: Yankees, in part because this one could go down to the bullpens.

RHP A.J. Burnett (4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.01 K/BB, 33 GS, 21 QS)
LHP Joe Saunders (4.60 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 1.58 K/BB, 31 GS, 13 QS)

Saunders draws the Game Two start to keep Jered Weaver at home, where his ERA was nearly two runs better. Scott Kazmir got beat up on the road in the ALDS, so Saunders. The catch is that Saunders’ road ERA was a run worse than his home mark and, as the fourth-starter in the Halos LDS sweep, hasn’t pitched since the regular season. Saunders did finish the season strong (7-0, 2.55 ERA in eight starts), but if that was so impressive, why didn’t Saunders draw an earlier start against the Bosox? Saunders started against the Yankees twice this season, both times in Anaheim, the first bad, the second, part of that season-ending run, good. Burnett was typical A.J. in two starts against the Angels on the season, going seven but allowing four runs in California in April, and striking out 11, but failing to complete six innings in the Bronx in September. This game could go in any direction, but Burnett’s the superior starter.

LHP Andy Pettitte (4.16 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB, 32 GS, 17 QS)
RHP Jered Weaver (3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB, 33 GS, 20 QS)

As I alluded to above, Weaver’s ERA at home this season was 2.90 compared to a 4.78 road mark, and he dominated the Red Sox at home in the LDS (7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K). Andy Pettitte was better on the road, but not that much better (3.71 to 4.59). Weaver gets the edge here, but if the series goes long, his second start (be it Game 6 on full rest or Game 7 in rotation) will come in the Bronx. Ditto Pettitte, though Andy seemed to conquer the new stadium in the season’s final two months.

RHP Chad Gaudin (4.76 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.79 K/BB, 25 GS, 11 QS)
LHP Scott Kazmir (4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB, 26 GS, 14 QS)

Sabathia will start against Kazmir in Game Four, but I wanted to show how well Gaudin actually matches up here based on the full regular season. Of course, Kazmir straightened himself out over his final nine starts (a common theme here), going 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 2.94 K/BB over his last eight starts. In fact, Kamzir’s Game Three start in Boston in the ALDS was his worst outing since August 9, which apparently was enough to convince Scioscia to start Saunders over Kaz in Game Two. Kazmir’s performance in Game Four will likely determine whether he, on normal rest, or Weaver on an extra day, starts a potential Game Seven, the choice being between a second start for Saunders, in Game Six, or Kazmir in Game Seven.

Closer:

Mariano Rivera (1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 6.00 K/BB, 44 SV, 2 BS, 6.032 WXRL)
Brian Fuentes (3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.92 K/BB, 48 SV, 7 BS, 2.434 WXRL)

Fuentes has the edge in saves, but he converted just 87 percent of his opportunities (among his blown saves was one against the Yankees on May 1 in which he faced four batters and failed to get an out) and was a mere 39th in WXRL. Rivera, who converted 96 percent and led the majors in WXRL. To make matters worse, Scioscia has developed a habit of starting the ninth inning with a different pitcher, using Fuentes almost as a ninth-inning LOOGY, while Rivera will often enter in the eighth, particularly in the postseason. This isn’t even close.

Behind Rivera the Yankees’ bullpen is clearly superior to the Angels’, only in part because the Yankee bullpen was the best in baseball (per WXRL) during the regular season. However, Phil Hughes wasn’t terribly sharp in the Division Series against the Twins, and Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, and Damaso Marte have only recently been restored to the pen. Thus, Joe Girardi’s willingness and effectiveness in juggling rolls according to performance will be key to the Yankee bullpen’s success for the remainder of the postseason. As for Scioscia, he’ll take what he can get and hope his starters pitch efficiently and go deep into games.

Defense:

The Yankees beat the Angels soundly in terms of both defensive efficiency and caught-stealing percentage and the two teams made almost exactly the same number of errors. The Yankees’ defense is the most underrated aspect of what is truly a championship-caliber team.

Baserunning:

The Angels stole 37 more bases than the Yankees during the regular season, but were caught 35 more times. That makes the Yankees the better basestealing team having swiped at an 80 percent success rate as a team to the Angels’ 70 percent. As I just mentioned, the Yankees were also better at throwing out runners, with Jorge Posada and Jose Molina both catching 28 percent of attempting opponents. So don’t believe they hype about the Angels’ running game. All the running they do might actually benefit the Yankees as they’ll run into some extra outs.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2009 Record: 97-65 (.599)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (.568)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium (103/102)

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Maicer Izturis (S)/Howie Kendrick (R)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli (R)
RF – Bobby Abreu (L)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Vlad Guerrero (R)

Bench:

R – Howie Kendrick (2B)/S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
S – Gary Matthews Jr. (OF)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
R – Robb Quinlan (1B/3B)
R – Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis (C)
R – Bobby Wilson (C)

Rotation:

R – John Lackey
R – Jered Weaver
L – Scott Kazmir
L – Joe Saunders

Bullpen:

L -Brian Fuentes
R – Kevin Jepsen
L – Darren Oliver
R – Jason Bulger
R – Ervin Santana
R – Matt Palmer

Key injuries:

RHP – Scot Shields (knee surgery)
RHP – Kelvim Escobar (shoulder tenderness)
RHP – Dustin Moseley (forearm surgery – nerve condition)

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
L – Bobby Abreu (RF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
R – Vlad Guerrero (DH)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Juan Rivera (LF)
S – Maicer Izturis/R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
R – Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli (C)
S – Erick Aybar (SS)

* * *

New York Yankees

2009 Record: 103-59 (.636)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (.586)

Manager: Joe Girardi
General Manager: Brian Cashman

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Yankee Stadium 2.0 (103/103)

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Nick Swisher (S)
CF – Melky Cabrera (S)
LF – Johnny Damon (L)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

L – Brett Gardner (CF)
S – Jerry Hairston Jr. (UT)
S – Freddy Guzman (OF)
R – Jose Molina (C)
R – Francisco Cervelli (C)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Phil Hughes
L – Phil Coke
R – Joba Chamberlain
R – Alfredo Aceves
L – Damaso Marte
R – David Robertson
R – Chad Gaudin

Key injuries:

RHP – Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder surgery)
OF – Xavier Nady (Tommy John surgery)

Typical Lineup:

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Johnny Damon (LF)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
L – Melky Cabrera (CF)

That clinching win will come. In the meantime, the Yankees have to make sure that, when they get to the postseason, their important players are healthy and rested. Getting A.J. Burnett and Joba Chamberlain straightened out are priorities that met with differing results in Seattle. Tonight Andy Pettitte, whose last start was skipped due to some soreness in his pitching shoulder, takes the ball. Getting him and David Robertson healthy and effective again are also priorities.

Brett Gardner seems to have gotten his swing back, but he’ll sit tonight against the left-handed Joe Saunders. The Yankees will get a look at possible Joba-replacement Chad Guadin tomorrow and Burnett again on Wednesday against newest Angel Scott Kazmir. Somewhere along they way, they’ll clinch a playoff berth.

The Angels’ roster is the same as it was last time these teams met. The Yankees are 3-1 against the Angels in the Bronx this year, but 0-3 in Anaheim, but whether or not that latter mark is corrected or reinforced this week will have little bearing on how the Yanks are likely to perform in Disneyland in October.

Unless something wild happens (and I’m not saying it won’t), the Yankees will host the Tigers in the ALDS, and the Angels will host the Red Sox. If the Yankees advance, they’ll then have homefield advantage over their ALCS opponent, which given the recent playoff history between the two teams (the Angels have won just one game in three ALDS series against Boston since 2004), is more likely to be the Red Sox than the Angels. It’s thus very possible that tonight’s make-up game, and the three games the Yankees will play in Anaheim next week, are in fact a preview of nothing, and could have no significance for the postseason at all as the Yankees would automatically have home field advantage against the Wild Card Red Sox.

Still, an ALCS matchup with the Angels remains a distinct possibility, and the Angels team that arrives in the Bronx tonight is a much better one than the one that swept the Yankees in the final series before the All-Star break. In that last series, Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter were on the DL and Scott Kazmir was a Tampa Bay Ray. All three of those players are on the Angels active roster now, and while the Yankees will face Jered Weaver, not Kazmir tonight, they make the Angels a far more dangerous team. The Angels have been winning at a .661 clip since the break, just four-games behind the Yankees’ remarkable pace.

The Yankees would do well to remember that they took two of three from the Angels in the Bronx in May, and that they’ve had some modest success against Weaver this year, scoring eight runs against him in 12 innings and connecting for three home runs (by Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and Eric Hinske).

Joba Chamberlain takes the hill for the Yankees tonight. After a rough beginning to his last outing, Chamberlain settled down and retired the last eight men he faced in order. He’ll move up to four innings tonight, hoping to build off that performance.

Yankees added journeyman minor league utility man Freddy Guzman to the 40-man roster. Guzman is on his fourth organization this year and will serve as a pinch-runner, defensive replacement, then vanish back into the ether from whence he came. Standard lineup tonight against the Halos.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2009 Record: 86-56 (.606)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 86-56 (.563)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium (103/102)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter (both DL) have replaced Gary Matthews Jr. and half of the catching platoon in the starting lineup
• Scott Kazmir has replaced Matt Palmer in the starting rotation
• Trevor Bell (minors) has replaced Justin Speier
• September call-ups: IFs Brandon Wood & Freddy Sandoval, OFs Reggie Willits, Terry Evans & Chris Pettit, Cs Bobby Wilson & Ryan Budde, RHPs Sean O’Sullivan, Rafael Rodriguez & Rich Thompson

25-man Roster:

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Maicer Izturis (S)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis (R)
RF – Bobby Abreu (L)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Vladimir Guerrero (R)

Bench:

R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
S – Gary Matthews Jr. (OF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
R – Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli (R)
R – Brandon Wood (IF)
R – Freddy Sandoval (IF)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
R – Terry Evans (OF)
R – Chris Pettit (OF)
R – Bobby Wilson (C)
R – Ryan Budde (C)

Rotation:

R – Jered Weaver
R – John Lackey
L – Joe Saunders
R – Ervin Santana
L – Scott Kazmir

Bullpen:

L – Brian Fuentes
L – Darren Oliver
R – Jason Bulger
R – Kevin Jepsen
R – Jose Arredondo
R – Trevor Bell
R – Matt Palmer
R – Rich Thompson
R – Sean O’Sullivan
R – Rich Rodriguez

60-day DL: RHP – Scot Shields (knee surgery), RHP – Kelvim Escobar (shoulder tendonitis), RHP – Dustin Moseley (nerve condition in forearm)

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
S – Cesar Izturis (2B)
L – Bobby Abreu (RF)
R – Vlad Guerrero (DH)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Juan Rivera (LF)
R – Mike Napoli (C)
S – Erick Aybar (SS)

Notes: Kendrick and Izturis are in a strict left/right platoon at second base. Mathis and Napoli are splitting the catching duties evenly, though Mathis bats ninth behind Aybar when he plays. Rivera will bat sixth ahead of Morales against lefties.

Only two Angels starters have made their full slate of starts this year. Of those two, Jered Weaver, who starts Saturday’s game on FOX, has been excellent, but Joe Sanders, who starts tonight, has been no better than average, adding a run to his ERA of a year ago, seeing his walks and strikeouts converge, and allowing a league-leading 20 homers in just 17 starts.

After starting the season on the DL, John Lackey, who starts Sunday, has gone 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in 11 starts. His poor performance can be traced to a .353 opponents’ average on balls in play, which would seem to be attributable to that poor team defense. Ervin Santana has been on and off the DL all year and has a dismal 1-5 record to go with his alarming 7.81 ERA. Again, one looks to the defense as Santana sports an absurd .385 BABIP.

So who are the culprits in the field? That’s hard to figure. Going position-by-position, the Angels are rarely more than a tick below average anywhere on the field. Torii Hunter’s not as good as he used to be, but Bobby Abreu’s not nearly as bad as he was for the Yankees last year. Juan Rivera, another former Yankee, who has rebounded from nearly two seasons lost to a broken leg with a strong showing at the plate, has actually been a significant plus in the pastures. The middle infield grades out to about average, and better than that when Howie Kendrick plays, and the corners have been solid.

Gary Matthews Jr. has been awful on both sides of the ball, but most of his playing time came in the outifeld before Lackey and Santana returned from their initial DL stays; it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he alone could be blamed for their struggles. So maybe it’s not team defense that is the problem. Maybe Lackey and Santana are just all kinds of hittable right now. Either way, it’s bad news for the Halos, who are struggling to stay atop their division and enter this final series before the All-Star break a half-game behind the Rangers in the AL West and four-games out of the Wild Card race.

More bad news hit Anaheim today as both Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero hit the DL. Guerrero, who might be the oldest 34-year-old in baseball, is on the shelf for the second time this season. Meanwhile, Hunter’s replacement in center will be none other than Matthews, the team’s $50 million mistake.

Tonight the Yankees face lefty Joe Saunders, who has allowed 14 runs in nine innings over his last two starts. Saunders has really been hit or miss all season, with his two worst starts coming against the Rangers in Arlington (seven of the 20 home runs he’s allowed came in those two starts). At home, he’s posted a 3.43 ERA, though he was touched up by the Orioles at home his last time out. In addition to the Rangers, Saunders has been particularly susceptible to right-handed hitters, who are slugging .505 against him. That’s good news for the heart of the Yankee order.

He’ll face Joba Chamberlain, who got an ego check his last time out when he allowed eight runs in 3 2/3 innings. Joba’s been a bit obstinate about his performances thus far this season, often giving too much credit to the opposing lineup as well as to his own ability to make good pitches, when in reality he’s been inefficient, nibbly, and his velocity has lacked consistency. He’s still been valuable, but his lack of progress is becoming disturbing. Part of me almost wants him to get his ass handed to him tonight so he has to ugly outings staring him in the face through the All-Star break. The hope being that might put a crack in some of his delusions.

Mark Melancon rejoins the bullpen tonight with Jonathan Albaladejo getting optioned out despite his fine work in yesterday’s game. Derek Jeter gets a half-day off at DH with Cody Ransom, who drove in a pair of runs yesterday, playing shortstop against the lefty Saunders. Nick Swisher bats fifth ahead of Robinson Cano. Melky’s in center, and Jose Molina makes his first appearance since being activated, catching Chamberlain and giving us a chance to see just how much Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Peña really are going to be missed in the short term.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2009 Record: 46-37 (.554)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 43-40 (.518)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium (103/102)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Reggie Willits (minors) has replaced Rafael Rodriguez (minors)
• Bobby Wilson (minors) has replaced Torii Hunter (DL)
• John Lackey (DL) has replaced Shane Loux (DL)
• Ervin Santana (DL) has replaced Anthony Ortega (minors)
• Darren Oliver (DL) has replaced Scot Shields (DL)
• Kevin Jepsen (DL) has replaced Jose Arredondo (minors)
• Rich Thompson (minors) has replaced Fernando Rodriguez (minors)

25-man Roster:

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Howie Kendrick (R)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Jeff Mathis (R)
RF – Bobby Abreu (L)
CF – Gary Matthews Jr. (S)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Mike Napoli (R)

Bench:

S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
R – Brandon Wood (IF)
R – Bobby Wilson (C)

Rotation:

R – John Lackey
R – Ervin Santana
L – Joe Saunders
R – Jered Weaver
R – Matt Palmer

Bullpen:

L – Brian Fuentes
R – Justin Speier
L – Darren Olivers
R – Jason Bulger
R – Kevin Jepsen
R – Rich Thompson

15-day DL: DH – Vladimir Guerrero (knee/hamstring), CF – Torii Hunter (adductor strain), RHP – Kelvim Escobar (shoulder tendonitis), RHP – Shane Loux (shoulder inflammation)

60-day DL: RHP – Scot Shields (knee surgery), RHP – Dustin Moseley (nerve condition in forearm)

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
S – Gary Matthews Jr. (CF)
L – Bobby Abreu (RF)
R – Juan Rivera (LF)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Mike Napoli (DH)
R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
R – Jeff Mathis (C)
S – Erick Aybar (SS)

Notes: Kendrick has largely lost his second base job to Maicer Izturis. Napoli and Jeff Mathis split the catching duties evenly.

2008 Record: 100-62
2008 Pythagorean Record: 88-74

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium (103/102)

Who’s Replaced Whom:

• Kendry Morales replaces Casey Kotchman and Mark Teixeira
• Bobby Abreu replaces Garret Anderson
• Brian Fuentes replaces Francisco Rodriguez
• Shane Loux, Anthony Ortega, and Matt Palmer are filling in for John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Dustin Mosely (all on DL)
• Rafael Rodriguez and Fernando Rodriguez are filling in for Darren Oliver and Kevin Jepsen (both on DL)

25-man Roster:

1B – Kendry Morales (S)
2B – Howie Kendrick (R)
SS – Erick Aybar (S)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Mike Napoli (R)
RF – Gary Matthews Jr. (S)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Bobby Abreu (L)
DH – Juan Rivera (R)

Bench:

R – Jeff Mathis (C)
S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
R – Brandon Wood (IF)

Rotation:

L – Joe Saunders
R – Shane Loux
R – Anthony Ortega
R – Jered Weaver
R – Matt Palmer

Bullpen:

L – Brian Fuentes
R – Jose Arredondo
R – Scot Shields
R – Justin Speier
R – Jason Bulger
R – Rafael Rodriguez
R – Fernando Rodriguez

15-day DL:

RF – Vladimir Guerrero (torn pectoral)
RHP – John Lackey (forearm tightness)
RHP – Ervin Santana (elbow strain)
RHP – Dustin Moseley (elbow tightness)
LHP – Darren Oliver (shoulder stiffness)
RHP – Kevin Jepsen (back spasms)

60-day DL:

RHP – Kelvim Escobar (shoulder inflammation)

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
S – Gary Matthews Jr. (RF)
L – Bobby Abreu (LF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)
R – Mike Napoli (C)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
S – Erick Aybar (SS)

See that 88-74 Pythagorean record from 2008? That’s why the A’s traded for Matt Holliday. The Angels are vulnerable. They greatly overachieved last year. Their offense is more rumor than fact having ranked 11th in the American League last year and having since lost Mark Teixeira, who was worth three wins for them over the final two months. None of their younger hitters has a particularly high ceiling save for Howie Kendrick, who thus far hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy or draw a walk. Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter are starting to show their age, particularly in the field, and while Bobby Abreu represents an upgrade on Garret Anderson, he doesn’t make the team any younger or any more likely to convert balls in play into outs.

Entering the season, the Angels’ hopes of a third-straight AL West title rested on their pitching and the weakness of the rest of their division. The latter seems to be unaltered by the A’s efforts, particularly given the recent injuries to Mark Ellis, Eric Chavez, and Nomar Garciaparra, but the Angels pitching isn’t holding up it’s end of the bargain. Certainly the Halos had to expect some regression from Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana following their breakout seasons last year, but a full season of John Lackey was supposed to help counteract that. Instead both Lackey and Santana started the season the DL and have yet to throw a regular season pitch. Both are throwing extended spring training innings now and looking toward returning in mid-May, but they’ll return to pitch in front of what has thus-far been the second-worst defense in the majors according to defensive efficiency.

Of course, the real tragedy (to use that word appropriately for a change), that struck the Angels pitching staff was the death of top prospect Nick Adenhart in a traffic accident following his first start of the year. That loss is immeasurable and unspeakable, but to deal with it coldly in baseball terms, Adenhart was supposed to replace Jon Garland as the team’s fifth starter, at least until Kelvim Escobar proved able to return from a year and a half on the DL. The team’s alternate plan was Dustin Moseley, but he’s also on the DL, as is lefty Darren Oliver, who was used for a spot start, his first in the majors since 2004, before (and possibly resulting in) hitting the DL with shoulder stiffness. With just two of their Opening Day starters still in the rotation, the Angels are tenth in the AL in pitching per runs allowed per game and arrive in the Bronx tonight with a 9-11 record.

I say that the impact of a of the death of a teammate is immeasurable, and it is, but given how rare an occurrence it is, I thought it might be informative to see how other teams have played in the weak of such a tragedy. With the help of my pal Steven Goldman I was able to come up with just seven teams that suffered a player depth mid-season (thus leaving out the 1978 Angels, who lost Lyman Bostock in late September). Those teams were the 2007 Cardinals (Josh Hancock), 2002 Cardinals (Darryl Kile), 1979 Yankees (Thurmon Munson), 1955 Red Sox (Harry Agganis), 1940 Reds (Willard Hershberger), 1920 Indians (Ray Chapman), and 1903 Senators (Ed Delahanty). Of those seven teams, all but two had higher winning percentages after the death of their teammate than before. The two exeptions, the 1940 Reds and 1920 Indians, went on to win the World Series. I’m not sure one can call that an encouraging fact, but perhaps it’s something around which the Angels can rally this season in their attempt to win their weak division.

Tonight, the Angels send 23-year-old Venezuelan Anthony Ortega to the mound. Ortega pitched well in Double- and Triple-A last year, but his weak strikout rate doesn’t portend big-league success. He faced the Mariners in his last and thus far only major league start and gave up five runs in five innings on five hits a walk and two homers. The Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett, who is looking to reverse the downward course he’s been on over his last two starts (combined: 11 1/3 IP, 11 H, 11 R, 4 HR, 10 BB, 5 K).

If Angels fans want a cause to get behind, they should lobby their team to add a bat so that Fuentes, Arredondo and company actually have some leads to protect. By signing Fuentes, the Angels have filled their cart, but they’re still in need of a horse.

Johnny Damon led off the third with a walk, but got picked off ahead of a single by Derek Jeter, who was subsequently stranded at first base. A one-out single by Xavier Nady in the fourth was erased by a 3-6-3 double play off Hideki Matsui’s bat. Then in the fifth, Pettitte fell apart. Singles by Gary Matthews Jr., Anderson, and Guerrero loaded the bases with none out. Pettitte then rallied to strike out Rivera and Kendry Morales, and got ahead of Robb Quinlan 1-2, but Quinlan battled back to a full count before delivering a two-RBI single that gave the Angels the lead which was inflated to 4-2 when Guerrero scored on Nady’s subsequent throwing error.

And that was that. Pettite walked the next batter and got the hook. Jose Veras, Phil Coke, and Joba Chamberlain stopped the scoring there, but so did Moseley and relievers Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields, passing the game to Francisco Rodriguez. Down to their last out, The Yankees mounted a threat with a walk by Giambi and a single by Xavier Nady that put pinch runners on the corners, but Rodriguez got Hideki Matsui looking to earn his 56th save of the year and move into second place on the single-season saves list. He’ll pass Bobby Thigpen soon enough.

At that point attention turned to the Rangers-Mariners game, which was broadcast for the remaining fans on the Angel Stadium scoreboard. The M’s had an early 4-0 lead, but the Rangers tied it up with a pair of two-run homers off M’s starter Jared Wells in the fifth. Seattle got back out ahead with two runs off Kevin Millwood in the fifth, but another two-run homer tied the game back up at 6-6 in the sixth. The M’s took the lead again with a run in the bottom of the sixth and added another in the bottom of the seventh. That was enough to survive a Chris Davis solo homer off Miguel Batista in the eighth and when J.J. Putz struck out Michael Young to wrap up Seattle’s 8-7 win, the Angels clinched the AL West for the fourth time in five years.

As things stand now, the Angels will face the Wild Card team in the ALDS. As of this writing, the Rays had a 1.5 game lead on the Red Sox and the two teams were tied 1-1 in the 12th inning at Fenway. The Angels have faced the Red Sox in the postseason three times, but have lost all three series. In recent years, they’ve been swept twice in the ALDS by Boston and haven’t won a postseason game against the Sox since they held a 3-1 in the 1986 ALCS. The fifth game of that series was the game in which Dave Henderson homered off Donnie Moore in the ninth inning to prevent the Angels from reaching their first World Series. So, you think the Halos are hoping they wind up facing the Rays?

In this week’s three-game series in Anaheim, the Yankees could be the jobber against whom the Angels clinch the AL West. Our own Bobby “The Brain” Timmermann believes that could make the Halos the first team to clinch a division against the Yankees since the Blue Jays did so in 1985 (though, unlike those Jays, the Angels won’t be eliminating the Yankees in the process). The Angels magic number entering this series is three. Any combination of Angels wins or Rangers loses totaling three will give the Angels their fourth AL West title in the last five years.

The Yankees could also be the jobber against whom Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez ties or even breaks Bobby Thigpen’s 18-year-old single-season saves record. Thigpen saved 57 games for the White Sox in 1990. Rodriguez has 55 saves so far this year. Heck, it’s entirely possible that Rodriguez could tie the record and clinch the division all at once against the Yankees. That’s pretty special. It’s a good thing MLB sent one of their most talented jobbers to take the fall.

The Yankees remain mildly interesting because of their starting pitchers. Carl Pavano will make his fourth consecutive start tonight facing Jon Garland. Hot prospect Alfredo Aceves will make his first major league start tomorrow against Jered Weaver, who was pushed back a day after accidentally cutting his hand in on the bench in the visitors dugout at Comerica Park last Tuesday. Wednesday will find Andy Pettitte, whose Yankee career could be winding down, back on the bump against Ervin Santana.

The Yankees’ primary interest, however, will likely be in scouting pending free agents Garland, first baseman Mark Teixeira, and perhaps even left fielder and former Yankee Juan Rivera. I don’t expect the Yankees to show much interest in Garland, though he could be useful as a league-average innings eater if Pettitte doesn’t return, or Rivera, who is yet another former Yankee farmhand whose reluctance to draw walks undermines his other talents, but they’ll certainly be in the mix on Teixeira, a Gold Glove defender and switch-hitter who has hit .360/.441/.610 since being acquired from Atlanta. Of course, given those credentials, his $12.5 million salary this year, and his agent, Scott Boras, the Yankees may have to take out a second mortgage on the new Stadium to meet Teixeira’s price.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2008 Record: 86-56 (.606)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 77-65 (.544)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium

Who’s Replaced Whom:

Sean Rodriguez (minors) has replaced Howie Kendrick (DL)
Brandon Wood (minors) has replaced Maicer Izturis (DL)
Darren O’Day (minors) has replaced Shane Loux (DL)

25-man Roster:

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Sean Rodriguez (R)
SS – Brandon Wood (R)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Mike Napoli (R)
RF – Vladimir Guerrero (R)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Juan Rivera (R)
DH – Garret Anderson (L)

Bench:

S – Gary Matthews Jr. (OF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
S – Erick Aybar (IF)
R – Jeff Mathis (C)
S – Kendry Morales (1B)*
R – Ryan Budde (C)*

Rotation:

R – John Lackey
L – Joe Saunders
R – Jon Garland
R – Ervin Santana
R – Jered Weaver

Bullpen:

R – Francisco Rodriguez
R – Scot Shields
R – Jose Arredondo
R – Justin Speier
L – Darren Oliver
R – Darren O’Day
R – Moseley, Dustin*
R – Jason Bulger*
R – Kevin Jepsen*

15-day DL: R – Howie Kendrick (2B), S – Maicer Izturis (IF), R – Shane Loux
60-day DL: R – Kelvim Escobar

*September call-up

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
R – Mike Napoli (C)
R – Brandon Wood (SS)
R – Sean Rodriguez (2B)

Facing a three-game set in Anaheim this weekend, the Yankees don’t have the option of a split. For all of the Angels’ success on the road, the Halos still have a .600 winning percentage at home and are 11-3 in Anaheim since July 1. The Yankees righted their ship against the Angels last weekend by dropping a six-spot on Jered Weaver, who starts again tonight, but Weaver’s home ERA is more than a run lower than his road mark and his home run and walk rates are way down in his home park.

This series will be a real test for the Yankees, but the biggest test will be for tonight’s starter, Ian Kennedy. Kennedy’s already been tested quite a bit this season, by his manager, who challenged the young righty to throw strikes during his early season struggles, by the organization, which farmed him out to triple-A in early May when he failed to meet Girardi’s challenge (7.61 BB/9 in his first six games), and by the team doctors after he left his third start following his recall with what proved to be an oblique strain.

Kennedy returned to action at the end of June with a pair of dominant rehab outings in the low minors and has since made seven appearances (six starts) for triple-A Scranton, posting a 2.60 ERA and walking just 3.08 men per nine innings, an exact match of his minor league walk rate last year. In his last four starts for Scranton he has compiled this line: 27 IP, 14 H, 4 R, 5 BB, 20 K, 3-0, 1.33 ERA, 0.70 WHIP.

Given his struggles in the majors at the start of the year and his 0-3 record on the season, it’s easy to forget that Kennedy did turn in two quality starts in his seven opportunities, both games the Yankees went on to win after his departure. Still, the gap between Kennedy’s minor league dominance (career: 17-5, 1.90 ERA, 214 K in 203 1/3 IP) and his pitching in the majors earlier this year was wide and more than a little bothersome.

After straining his oblique at the end of May, Kennedy was replaced in the rotation by Joba Chamberlain. With Chamberlain on the DL due to rotator cuff tendonitis, Kennedy is being given his third chance to establish himself in the Yankee rotation. Beating Weaver and the Angels tonight while keeping his walks down would be a huge victory, not only for the team, but for Kennedy, who needs to stand atop major league mounds with the same confidence and command he’s shown throughout his brief minor league career.

The Angels’ roster is largely unchanged. Darren O’Day has been farmed out in favor of retread righty Shane Loux, last seen pitching for the Tigers in 2003 when he was Kennedy’s age. They’re also expected to activate catcher Mike Napoli before tonight’s game. If they do, third-stringer Ryan Budde will be optioned to make room. Napoli is an upgrade over Jeff Mathis at the plate as he’s something of a Three-True-Outcome guy. In 757 major league plate appearances, Napoli has 38 homers, 104 walks, and 199 strikeouts, giving him a career line of .229/.345/.455.

Melky Cabrera returns to center field tonight as Bobby Abreu gets a turn at DH and Xavier Nady shifts over to right field. Jose Molina will catch Kennedy with Ivan Rodriguez still nursing his knee. Chris Britton, of course, was optioned to Scranton to make room for Kennedy on the roster.