Over at Pinstriped Bible, our man Cliff takes a look at the Yankees starting rotation:

Of the pitchers who have yet to reach the majors, there are two basic groups, a quartet of middling arms that have reached Triple-A and the three Killer Bs, the team’s top pitching prospects, none of whom has spent a full season at Double-A. The former group consists of David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, Hector Noesi, and Steve Garrison, all of whom will be 24 this season. Noesi and Garrison are on the 40-man roster. Phelps and Mitchell are not. Garrison is the lone lefty. Noesi is the only fly-ball pitcher among the bunch. Phelps is the most ready having posted a 3.17 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts last year with an outstanding 4.73 K/BB. Per a recent conversation with Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein, Garrison is the weakest of the bunch, and none of them have stuff as good as Nova’s.

The other three arms, of course, are Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Andrew Brackman. I don’t expect the Yankees to jump any of the three of them to the majors given that they have combined to make just 20 Double-A starts, but if the Yankees get desperate enough during the season, and one of the above is simply dominating in Trenton, they may have no other choice, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, which we very well might given the fact that the Yankees would have difficulty fleshing out a four-man playoff rotation right now, never mind a five-man unit that will allow them to keep up with the Red Sox over a 162-game season.

[Photo Credit: Zimbo]

Cliff: . . . what Girardi is looking for (I assume and hope) is execution of pitches, game planning, the ability to set-up hitters, work out of jams, miss bats, avoid hard contact, turn lineups over, etc. This is the one time of year when I agree with those who diminish the importance of statistics. The sample is indeed too small, thus one bad outing, due to the after-effects of the flu or fatigue toward the end of an outing in which the pitcher in question is extending his pitch count, can ruin an ERA. Also, as Girardi has said, the first couple of spring starts are really tune-ups in which starters don’t use all of their pitches and are just trying to build arm strength and get a feel for things. So for Hughes and Chamberlain, as well, the charge is to execute in a high-pressure situation, to show what they can do, but I don’t think that necessarily means the pitcher with the better ERA is going to get the job. If Joba continues to struggle but suddenly finds it in his last two spring starts and looks like the guy from 2007 again, I think the job will be, and should be, his.

Read the rest here.

That would be a lot more exciting if there wasn’t as much fan fatigue over Joba Chamberlain’s pitching role as there is over Brett Farve’s flirtations with retirement, but it’s important to note that, for all of the debates, role changes, rule changes, and innings limits, the Yankees have Chamberlain exactly where they want him this spring, coming off a season of 160 innings pitched and ready to spend a full season in the rotation without having a cap placed on his innings pitched. For that reason, I believe that the Yankees are looking at the fifth starter’s job as Chamberlain’s to lose, though they’d ever admit it. Chamberlain is nine months older that Hughes and a season ahead of Hughes in terms of his innings progress (Hughes threw 111 2/3 innings between the minors, majors, and postseason last year; Chamberlain threw 100 1/3 in 2008). If Chamberlain claims the fifth-starter job this year, and the Yankees can find Hughes 150-odd innings, Hughes can follow Chamberlain into the rotation as a full-fledged starter in 2010 on the heals of the free agency of both Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez. If that happens, the Yankees will have established both young studs in the rotation before their 25th birthdays. They’re thisclose.

There are just two problems. First, Chamberlain got his innings to the right place last year, but his head and stuff seemed to go in the opposite direction. Second, getting Hughes 150 innings this year with Chamberlain eating up close to 200 in the rotation could prove to be as challenging as limiting Chamberlain to 160 last year.

Taking the latter first, the flip-side of the fifth-starter battle is the assumption that the loser will move back in to the eighth-inning role that both young pitchers have excelled at in recent seasons. In his 50 career major league relief appearances during the regular season, Chamberlain has posted a 1.50 ERA and struck out 11.9 men per nine innings while holding opposing hitters to a .182/.255/.257 line. Hughes, in 44 regular season relief appearances, all from last year, posted a 1.40 ERA and 11.4 K/9 while opposing batters hit .172/.228/.228. That sort of late-game dominance is hard to resist (thus the endless Joba debates), but both pitchers would be more valuable throwing 200 innings a year than 60, and given the impending free agency of Pettitte and Vazquez not to mention A.J. Burnett’s injury history, the Yankees have to resist slotting the loser of this spring’s competition into that role to such a degree that they’re unwilling to stretch him back out during the season, as they were with Hughes last year. Doing so would reset the clock on that pitcher’s journey toward the rotation and thus could severely damage his career path.

Perhaps that is where last-minute signee Chan Ho Park comes in, or sophomore David Robertson, or rookie Mark Melancon. That could add an extra wrinkle to this spring’s camp as those three–as well as Alfredo Aceves and Chad Gaudin, who have some eight-inning potential of their own–fight to prove that they can handle set-up duty for the Great Rivera. Or maybe Hughes can be used as a two-inning set-up man with the odd three-inning outing and thus potential to spot-start or even fill an injury hole in the rotation in order to keep his innings up. I can only imagine the uproar that would occur on sports talk radio should neither Joba nor Hughes wind up pitching the eighth-inning, but the Yankees have impressed me with their commitment to keeping Chamberlain on track as a starter despite loud objections from the peanut gallery and the obvious growing pains Chamberlain has experienced in the role.

Speaking of which, those growing pains have been overstated. It’s certainly true that Chamberlain looked diminished as a starter last year. He nibbled, was inefficient, his stuff wasn’t as sharp, his velocity was down. Put simply, he didn’t look like the ace-in-the-making those of us who have argued for his future as a starter have suggested he could be. That’s why it’s important to remember that he was only 23 last year and was battling huge expectations, some unintentional head games from his team, personal problems (his DUI, his mother’s arrest), and those pesky limitations which he perhaps unwisely asked to be kept in the dark about. In their age-23 seasons, Tim Lincecum was a rookie with a 4.00 ERA, CC Sabathia posted a 4.12 ERA, Zack Greinke and Johan Santana were doing most of their pitching out of the bullpen, and Jon Lester spent more than half of the season in the minors and had a 4.57 ERA in the majors. I could go on. I could also point out that just about every pitcher in baseball is going to throw harder out of the pen when they’re going max effort for 10 to 30 pitches than when starting and hoping to throw upwards of 100, and that part of Chamberlain’s readjustment was learning exactly how far to dial it back and how and when to dial it back up for an important out.

Then there were Chamberlain’s actual results. In 15 starts prior to the All-Star break he posted a 3.89 ERA and a 8.1 K/9 while the Yankees went 10-5 in his starts. Yes, he only averaged 5 1/3 innings per start, but again, this is all pretty solid work for a 23 year old spending his first full season in a major league rotation. Chamberlain said he said he went home to Nebraska during the break and got his head on straight. It showed. His first three starts out of the break were outstanding as he allowed just two runs, on eight hits, one a solo homer, while striking out 19 in 21 2/3 innings. In total, Chamberlain’s first 32 major league starts from his rotation debut in 2008 through that third post-break game in 2009 produced a 10-3 record, a 3.27 ERA, and an 8.7 K/9. Double those decisions and any Yankee fan would sign up for that from Chamberlain every year.

Unfortunately, those three post-break outings pushed Joba’s season innings total past 110. The Yankees skipped his next start in an effort to suppress his innings, and Joba lost his new-found groove. After a seven-day lay-off, Chamberlain walked seven men and gave up four runs in five innings. Two more starts on regular rest were similarly sub-par, then he had eight more days off and gave up seven runs in four innings when he returned to the mound. At that point, the Yankees made a sudden change of plans, deciding that the long rest wasn’t working and opting to start Chamberlain on regular rest but to limit his innings. That was no better. All totaled, Chamberlain made seven starts after the Yankees started pulling on the reins and posted a 7.01 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings, and struck out just 6.3 men per nine in those starts. Can he really be blamed for that performance? Or should the previous 32 starts count for more? Or maybe just the previous 20 from last year when he went 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA.

So, yes, the Yankees need to see a few more ticks on Joba’s fastball, some better control, more tilt on his slider (that he nearly hit Jorge Posada in the foot with one during batting practice last week seems like a good sign given the nasty break diving down and in on lefties that the pitch had in 2007 and 2008). They need him to go after hitters rather than nibble. They need to see that he’s clear-headed and focused and be convinced that he’ll be able to hold that focus through the April 12 sentencing of his mother who pleaded no contest to a drug delivery charge that could result in up to 20 years in jail.  That last might be a tall order, but if the Yankees see what they need to see from Chamberlain on the mound, it shouldn’t matter how Phil Hughes pitches this March, never mind Gaudin, Aceves, and Sergio Mitre, who are fleshing out the field more than actively challenging the two youngsters.

Hopefully we’ll get our first look at both Chamberlain and Hughes on Friday in the 1:05 game against the Rays on YES, which I’ll be liveblogging here. However, Chamberlain was a bit under the weather on Tuesday, and if he doesn’t get a bullpen in on Wednesday he could be bumped. I’m sure both he and the Yankees want to avoid that, just as they both want to avoid having any one else be the fifth starter this year.

The big news yesterday was that Joe Girardi has set his pitching rotation for the first week and a half of the exhibition schedule. Chad Jennings has the full details, and I’ve updated our sidebar with the first week’s action. CC Sabathia will start the second game to put him on schedule for the season opener. Barring injury or setback, the regular season rotation will start with CC followed by A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and then Javier Vazquez. Pettitte won’t pitch in a spring training game until March 12, but will throw a simulated game on March 7 to get his work in and stay on schedule while Gaudin and Sergio Mitre work in the actual game.

Programing note: I’ll be doing my annual live blog on Friday, covering the third game of the spring, which will feature both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, in that order, on the mound.

Shameless self-promotion: This afternoon at 3pm I will be appearing at the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center for an extended Q&A with Steven Goldman, Jay Jaffe, Kevin Goldstein, and Christina Kahrl to promote Baseball Prospectus 2010.

Quibble with those projections however you want, but consider what they add up to: 975 innings of a 3.73 ERA. Last year the collected Yankee starters–that is every pitcher who started for the team all year, not just the top five–combined for just 898 1/3 innings and a 4.58 ERA. Meanwhile, team that got the best performance out of it’s starting pitchers in 2008 was the Toronto Blue Jays, whose starters combined for 1,012 2/3 innings of a 3.72 ERA. Given that, the Yankees could have the best rotation in baseball even with that underwhelming performance from A.J. Burnett, average performances from Pettitte and Wang, and the limit placed on Chamberlain’s innings total. The catch is that their two top rivals for baseball’s best rotation are the Rays (with David Price taking over for Edwin Jackson) and Red Sox.

Note that I expect Chamberlain, not Pettitte, to be the Yankees’ fifth starter because of the limit the Yankees will need to place on his innings. Chamberlain threw 100 1/3 innings last year. Tom Verducci’s Rule of 30 would suggest a cap of 130 innings this year, but I expect the Yankees’ cap to be around 150 frames, and for Chamberlain to surpass that slighly due to a solid performance. The one remaining flaw in Chamberlain’s game is an inefficiency stemming from his being both a strikeout pitcher and one who walked 3.5 men per nine innings last year. That inneficiency will likely limit him to an average of six innings per start (which is exactly what he averaged in the nine starts prior to his shoulder injury last year). At that rate, he could make 26 starts this year and still have thrown just 156 innings. If the Yankees keep him in the fifth spot and use the odd off-day to skip his turn, he should come in right on target.

Meanwhile, with Pettitte having now rounded out the rotation, Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves become replacement starters rather than potential fifth-starters. That’s good news for the Yankees as there’s a decent chance that at least one of the pitchers in the chart above will wind up throwing as many as 100 innings less than I’ve projected for him due to injury. Aceves is a classic sixth starter, a crafty, junkballing righty who relies heavily on his defense and staying one pitch ahead of the hitter. In scout speak, Aceves has great pitchability, but not much stuff. He’s not far removed from the pitcher he’s replacing in the organization, Darrell Rasner, and is thus better suited as a replacement than one of the organization’s top five starters.

Hughes, of course, is still a top prospect, but even before Pettitte signed, I felt that Hughes needed to start the year in Triple-A and spend a couple of months just getting his legs under him and his confidence up so that he could return to the majors with some momentum rather than start the year trying once again to prove he deserved to break camp with the big club. Remember, Hughes has made just two major league starts since last April, and while he was excellent in the second of those two, essentially beating A.J. Burnett head-to-head (though Jose Veras wound up with the win), it came in late September against a long-since eliminated Blue Jays team. Hughes developed a strong cut fastball while rehabbing his broken rib last year and pitched well, if inconsistently, in the Arizona Fall League. With Pettitte in place, Phil can now build on those two developments at Triple-A in the hope of becoming a mid-season injury replacement (I didn’t write “for Burnett,” but I thought it) and forcing Joe Girardi to make a tough decision in the second half. Remember, Hughes won’t be 23 until last June. He still has plenty of time to make the transition from Triple-A to the majors.

While I’m on the topic, I might as well address Ian Kennedy. I don’t think Kennedy, who is a year and a half Hughes’ senior, was ever going to be in the picture for the big league rotation this spring. He did enough to discourage Girardi and the team last year that he wasn’t even brought back as a September call-up. Kennedy needs to spend the year at Scranton letting his pitching do the talking and hoping for a chance to make his case for the 2010 rotation in September. The good news on Kennedy is that he supposedly found a new way to throw his curve after working with Scranton pitching coach Rafael Chaves last year and dominated the Puerto Rican winter league with the pitch. Kennedy’s big problem last year was his refusal/inability to use his curve in his major league stints, making him a very hittable two-pitch fastball/changeup pitcher without much heat on his heater and a resulting tendency to shy away from contact. If the improvement in his curve proves sustainable, he may well revive his prospect status, making the A.J. Burnett contract all the more regrettable for expensively clogging up the rotation.

Still, taking the short-term view, it’s hard to complain about the Yankees’ top five starters entering the season. The Yankees haven’t had an Opening Day rotation this strong since they were making annual trips to the World Series. They’ve paid a lot for the priviledge, but it just might pay off.

To begin with, I want to rerun my chart of the returning 2008 starters, but I’m going to add one name to it. With Mike Mussina’s retirement confirmed (though not yet official), the Yankees are all but guaranteed to bring Andy Pettitte back on a one-year deal. Though Pettitte had a poor year in 2008, I support this move for two reasons. The first is that a one-year deal essentially serves as a stop-gap as the Yankees’ pitching prospects continue to mature. Joba Chamberlain is ready to start the 2009 season in the Yankee rotation, but though the Yankees have nine intriguing starting prospects in their system, none of the other eight is fully ready just yet. Even Phil Hughes would benefit from starting the season at Triple-A. A one-year deal for Pettitte gives Hughes (or Kennedy, or even George Kontos) time to refine his skills, then gets Pettitte out of the way for that pitcher to join the rotation in 2010.

Second, Pettitte’s poor 2008 season wasn’t all that poor and was weighed down by an ugly second half that Pettitte blamed on his failure to follow his usual offseason conditioning program due to a desire to stay out of sight in the wake of the Mitchell Report’s December 2007 release. Even still, Pettitte threw 204 innings, won 14 games, and posted an ERA just a tick below league average. After 22 starts, Pettitte was 12-7 with a 3.76 ERA. He then went 2-7 with a 6.23 the rest of the way. Over his entire career, Pettitte’s second-half ERA has been nearly a half run lower than his first-half mark. I’m willing to give Pettitte the benefit of the doubt given both his durability (four straight seasons of 200-plus innings) and the roster flexibility his one-year deal would provide following the 2009 season.

And so, our starting point for this discussion is this:

*on Opening Day 2009

Given the above list of “in-house” pitchers (pending Pettitte’s signing, of course), if the Yankees were to land CC Sabathia, which would be a no-brainer addition should Sabathia accept the team’s offer, the 2009 rotation would look like this:

I’d be content to stop there, with Aceves available to start the season in Hughes’ place and to compensate for Chamberlain’s 150-innings limit once Hughes (or Kennedy, etc.) arrives to take over the fifth spot. But what if Sabathia decides that returning to his home state and getting the opportunity to become one of the game’s best-hitting pitchers is more valuable to him than Yankee dollars? And is there a way for the Yankees to provide some more insurance in that fifth spot that might allow them to leave Hughes in Scranton for a larger portion of the season and hold Aceves in reserve in case of an injury to one of the top four?

There are roughly 50 major league starting pitchers on the free agent market right now, with only Ryan Dempster having signed, re-upping with the Cubs for $52 million over four years. I won’t bother you with all 50, as at least half of them are sub-Ponson level dreck (i.e. Horatio Ramirez and Jason Johnson, both of whom pitched primarily in relief last year), perpetually injured (Mark Prior, Matt Clement), or as in the case of future Hall of Famers Mussina and Greg Maddux, retired. Tom Glavine and John Smoltz will only pitch for the Braves if they return, and are also both 40-somethings coming off injury. Randy Johnson is another 40-something who, despite having a solid 2008 season, simply will not return to New York. Curt Schilling, yet another 40-something coming off injury and like Glavine and Smoltz a retirement candidate, has said he would not follow Johnny Damon’s lead by turning traitor on the Red Sox. Carving all of those pitchers out of the list and stopping before we get down to Ponson and his ilk, we get this list (all stats from 2008):

*as of Opening Day 2009

This is hardly the most exciting list of alternatives, and in an of itself justifies the Yankees’ seemingly outlandish offer to CC Sabathia (which, I should point out, I’m in favor of, even if I think the team should make Mark Teixeira an even higher priority). Still, there’s a chance Sabathia will sign elsewhere, and if he does, Lowe is cleary the next best option. I say that despite the similarity of his line above to that of Ben Sheets because of the disparate injury histories of the two pitchers. Lowe has made 32 or more starts in each of the last seven seasons. Sheets–who finished the 2008 season on the DL with elbow trouble and was unable to take the ball in the NLDS or as the Brewers’ Wild Card chase came down to the season’s final weekend–had not made more than 24 starts in any of the three years leading up to his walk year this year.

It will be interesting to see just how far Sheets’ stock drops as a result of this most recent elbow injury. Given his recent history, anything more than an incentive-based two-year deal would be too much. However, the word is that a two-year deal is about all Sheets is likely to be offered. Supposedly there is no structural damage in Sheets’ elbow. Given the choice between a five-year deal for A.J. Burnett, who has made more than 25 starts in a season just twice in the last six years, and a two-year deal for Sheets, I’d take my chances on Sheets.

To me, the most surprising name on the above list, and thus the biggest sleeper in the group, is former Mets closer Braden Looper. Just compare his line above to that of Burnett, who currently stands as one of the Yankees’ top targets. A career-long reliever who had last started as a 22-year-old minor leaguer in 1997, Looper was moved into the rotation prior to the 2007 season by a desperate Cardinals team and pitched well enough that year to remain in the role. He was even better in 2008, regaining most of the losses he suffered in his strikeout and groundball rates in 2007, and thus putting most of his rates as a starter in 2008 in line with the career marks he compiled out of the bullpen. Looper’s nothing more than a league average innings-eater, but he’s likely undervalued given his short track record as a starter, and he has a record of durability having made either 60 relief appearances or 30 starts in each of the last ten years.

The three lefties on the above list all come with their own individual warnings. Odalis Perez only averaged 5 1/3 innings per start in 2008, which was his first season with more than 140 innings pitched since 2005 and his first season with an ERA+ in the triple-digits since 2004. Prior to making 33 starts last year, Wolf hadn’t made more than 23 since 2003 due to a variety of injuries. Again, Sheets is a far more desirable option among these pitchers with spotty attendance given the fact that he brings a high-reward with his high level of risk.

Oliver Perez is a very different case. Just 27, he’s made 30 or more starts in four of the last five seasons, but two years ago ten of those starts came in the minors due to his poor performace in the majors. His poor K/BB rate is entirely the fault of his alarming walk rates (105 walks or 4.87 BB/9IP in 2008), which is a big red flag. Perez is a frustratingly inconsistent pitcher, who could easily pull a Jeff Weaver in the Bronx (or become the Yankees’ answer to Daniel Cabrera), though he does have the advantage of having already endured two and a half seasons in New York, including two late-season collapses by the Mets. Still, the Yankees are already up to their eyeballs in young, raw pitching talent. What they need is someone to hold down a spot in the major league rotation until that talent is ready, not another project pitcher who needs on-the-job training.

That brings us down to Paul Byrd, an aging junkballer who is good for some league average innings-eating, but will get absolutely torched every so often and is an inferior alternative to Looper, and Jon Garland, whose youth, World Series ring, and pair of recent 18-win seasons have made him overvalued (he made $12 million in 2008), though he does earn points for durability (32 or more starts seven years running). The big warning flag on Garland is the fact that his strikeout and walk rates have been converging over the past couple of seasons. Indeed, his K/BB above is the worst on the list, save for Penny, who was injured last year.

Penny is an interesting case and straddles the line between the viable candidates above and another group of veterans coming off injuries. In 2006, Penny started the All-Star Game. In 2007, he was third in the NL Cy Young voting, posting a 151 ERA+, and compiling 7.3 SNLVAR, though with a still-underwhelming 1.85 K/BB. This year, he was derailed by shoulder problems, and it’s telling that the Dodgers declined his $9.25 million option earlier this month. Penny is one of the sextet of pitchers who started for the Marlins earlier this decade and has since been plagued by injuries. The others include Burnett, Dempster, our pal Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, and Josh Beckett.

Penny brings to mind Freddy Garcia, who had the great misfortune of needing surgery on his labrum and rotator cuff just as he was becoming a free agent a year ago. Garcia spent most of the year unsigned while rehabbing his arm and finally caught on with the Tigers at the end of the year, making three middling starts for Detroit. Now 33, Garcia has made just 14 starts over the past two seasons and was only slightly above league average in 2006. Other notable pitchers who returned from injury in 2008, though with underwhelming results, include Pavano, Mike Hampton, Bartolo Colon, and Pedro Martinez, none of whom deserve anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. Certainly it’s possible that some team will look brilliant for signing one of these reclamation projects to an incentive-laden deal, but I wouldn’t want to count on any one of them for anything. After that bunch we get into the Ponsons and Livan Hernandez’s of the world, or start speculating about the effectiveness of a 39-year-old Jon Lieber who spent most of 2008 pitching in relief.

As far as the free-agent market goes, that’s all there is. Given that, I think the Yankees should limit themselves to Pettitte plus a maximum of two pitchers from among Sabathia and those listed in the table above. Assuming the Yankees sign either Sabathia or Lowe to be the big addition to the rotation, but not both, I’d recommend either a two-year deal for Ben Sheets, whose ace potential is worth a short-term gamble, or a low-cost offer to Braden Looper to eat innings at the back of the rotation with the understanding that he could always move back into the bullpen once the kids are ready. What the Yankees shouldn’t do, is sign multiple starters to long-term deals, thereby blocking their in-house talent at the major league level, and most of all, they should stay the hell away from the overrated and chronically infirm A.J. Burnett.

2008 Yankee Starting Pitchers

*Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Against Replacement: a Baseball Prospectus statistic based on win expectancy and adjusted for run support and the strength of opposing lineups that essentially measures wins above replacement level.

Removing the free agents, Rasner, who was sold to Japan, and Bruney, whose lone start was actually a preemptive relief appearance as Joe Girardi attempted to out-smart an early-season rain storm in Kansas City, the 2008 starters still in the organization are:

*on Opening Day 2009

Even in that group, Giese is a career reliever, who successfully experimented with starting in triple-A last year, but is more likely to return to the bullpen, and Igawa is a three-time loser in pinstripes who is unlikely to get another chance without first having a breakthrough in the minors. Given the struggles of Kennedy and Hughes last year, the innings limits on Hughes and Chamberlain (both of whom will likely be capped at 150 frames in 2009), and questions about Hughes’ durability, it’s clear that the Yankees need outside help in the rotation for next year.

That said, in stark contrast to the first base depth chart I posted the other day, the Yankees do have pitching on the way in the minor leagues. To begin with, the only pitchers on the above list who will be in their 30s by this time next year are Giese and Igawa. Wang and Chamberlain, despite making just 15 and 12 starts respectively, were among the Yankees most valuable starters in 2008, with Chamberlain tying Andy Pettitte in SNLVAR despite making 21 fewer starts. Hughes remains the youngest pitcher on the list, and at 22 is just a year younger than top 2008 draft pick and former Stanford star Jeremy Bleich.

Hughes added a very effective cutter to his resume after returning from his rib injury last year and finished the season with a very strong eight-inning start for the big club. Still, he has been inconsistent in the Arizona Fall League (though he’s really there just to increase his innings for 2008) and the Yankees would be justified in starting him in Triple-A again in 2009 given his struggles this year and his still very young age. Still, he should ultimately make a significant number of starts for the Yankees in 2009 and be an important part of the 2010 rotation along with Wang and Chamberlain.

That already leaves just two more spots in the 2010 rotation, with many more arms on the way. Kennedy, a lesser prospect to begin with, was worse than Hughes in the majors this year, but better than him in Triple-A. Kennedy may need at least a half season if not more in Triple-A to regain both his game and the team’s confidence in his abilities, but he remains a potential mid-rotation starter, and pitched well for the Yankees in three starts at the end of the 2007 season. There’s a very real chance that he could be an important part of the 2010 rotation as well, leaving just one spot.

Enter Alfredo Aceves, a Mexican League product who raced through the Yankees system last year and profiles as a back-of-the rotation starter. Like Jorge Campillo, another Mexican League product who emerged as a reliable starter for the Braves this year, Aceves has no dominant pitch, doesn’t throw especially hard, and is unlikely to ever really dominate anyone, but throws strikes, does an excellent job of mixing his wide variety of pitches, and can keep opponents off balance. At worst, he’s an improvement on the Sidney Ponsons of the world. At best, he could be a solid number four or a very strong number five in a rotation led by Chamberlain, Wang, Hughes, and Kennedy and/or one of this winter’s free agents.

And that’s just the guys who have already made major league starts for the team. In Tampa last year, Zach McAllister, the Yankees’ third round pick behind Chamberlain and Hughes in 2006, posted a 1.83 ERA while walking just 13 men in 88 2/3 innings. McAllistar, a big righty drafted out of an Illinois high school, posted those numbers in High-A as a 20-year-old in his first year of full-season ball after similarly dominating the Sally League in the first half of the season. Given 2009 in Double-A and 2010 in Triple-A, McAllister could join the Yankee rotation in 2011 without being rushed.

Behind him is yet another 2006 draftee, towering Brooklyn native Dellin Betances. Also 20, also in his first year of full-season ball, Betances started the 2008 season very raw after having thrown just 25 innings for short-season Staten Island in 2007, but by the end of the year he appeared to have put it all together. In his final 11 Sally League starts, Betances struck out 71 men in 60 1/3 innings while walking just 19 (a 3.74 K/BB) and allowing just one home run. He might be a year behind McAllister, but given his talent, he could catch up quickly.

Suddenly, we’re looking at a 2011 Yankee rotation that has the potential to be overstuffed from homegrown talent alone: Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy, McAllister, Betances. Even if Betances doesn’t arrive until 2012, signing just one free agent to a four-year deal squeezes two of those pitchers out of the 2012 rotation. Wang will have reached free agency by then himself, and surely at least one of these pitchers won’t pan out, but even if Wang leaves and one of the kids flops, signing just one starter to a long-term contract this winter books the 2012 rotation solid and gives the team a surplus of viable starters as soon as 2010.

And there’s still more talent in the system. Eighteen-year-old Dominican righty Jairo Heredia struck out 95 in 102 1/3 innings while posting a 3.25 ERA as Betances’s teammate in Charleston this year. Again, that’s an 18-year-old having success in A-ball, and, I should add, sporting a strong groundball rate. Top 2007 pick Andrew Brackman, the 6-foot-11 righty out of North Carolina State, is shaking off the rust from his Tommy John surgery in the Hawaiian winter league as you read this. The rust is evident, but he has struck out 36 men in 34 innings and has held righties to a .176 average. He’s about to turn 23 and could wind up in the bullpen, but as a former college hurler, he could also continue to start and move quickly once he gets back up to strength.

Speaking of college hurlers, top 2008 pick Jeremy Bleich, a lefty out of Stanford who idolizes Andy Pettitte and profiles like a left-handed Ian Kennedy with more of a bulldog attitude, has been dominating in Hawaii, going 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 31 strikeouts against nine walks and a lone homer in 30 2/3 innings. Bleich should start the 2009 season in full-season ball, and, like fellow college arms Chamberlain and Kennedy, could move quickly toward the Yankee rotation.

Here, then, is a list of the Yankees’ top pitching talent under the age of 25, a list that doesn’t include such names as Alan Horne (who will be 26 in January and had a disastrous, injury-riddled 2008 season), Chase Wright (a lefty who will be 26 in February, but is coming off a solid year split between Double- and Triple-A after an unfortunate stint in the majors in 2007), Erick Hacker (the latest addition to the 40-man roster, he’ll be 26 in March and is coming off a strong Double-A season), Jason Jones (who turns 26 tomorrow, also looked good in Double-A Trenton last year and had two solid starts for Triple-A Scranton as well), Phil Coke (another 26-year-old who had a good year in Trenton last year then dominated in the major leagues in September after being moved into the bullpen), or Christian Garcia (a 23-year-old righty who can’t stay healthy, but spent last year with Tampa and pitched very well when he did):

*as starter only

The one name on that list that I haven’t mentioned yet is George Kontos, another 2006 draft pick (fifth round) and a Northwestern product like current Yankee manager Joe Girardi. Kontos seems more on par with the Jason Joneses and Phil Cokes of the world, but he’s still just 23, has a 3.16 K/BB ratio in two and a half minor league seasons, and is within shouting distance of the major leagues. He bears watching, even if, on raw talent alone, he’s the least of the nine pitchers listed above.

Nine pitchers. Maybe Brackman winds up in the pen. Maybe Kontos is nothings special. Maybe one of the others flops or is derailed by injury. Maybe Jairo Heredia doesn’t mature the way one might hope. That still leaves five top-flight pitching prospects in the system, a full rotation’s worth, and that doesn’t count the five 26 year olds I mentioned above, Aceves, or Chien-Ming Wang.

Though things look sparse at the major league level right now, the Yankees are simply awash in pitching from an organizational perspective. An overenthusiastic effort to sign several big-money free agent starters to long-term contracts this winter will serve only to stifle the cheap, team-controlled talent set to arrive in the near future. In contrast, the Yankee system is nearly barren when it comes to everyday player prospects. Center fielder Austin Jackson is the only notable hitting prospect in the organization to have played above the Sally League, and catcher Jesus Montero is the only prospect in the system who projects as an elite run producer at the plate.

Given that stark discrepancy, the Yankees free agent focus should not be on pitching, but on hitting. Whenever an elite run producer becomes available while still in his 20s, the Yankees absolutely must prioritize that player in order to compensate for their failure to properly stock the farm system with bats. When such a player becomes available at a position of existing need at the major league level, as is the case with Mark Teixeira this offseason, the Yankees have an obligation to their fans and the future of the franchise to sign that player.

It’s quite possible that none of the young pitchers listed above will mature into the sort of dominant ace that CC Sabathia has become, but then again, one might. In fact, more than one might. There is, however, no chance of any player in the Yankee farm system maturing into an all-around defensive and offensive weapon on par with Mark Teixeira. If Brian Cashman is serious about the team-building process he began in the winter of 2005, if Hal Steinbrenner is serious about allowing Cashman to execute his vision, the Yankees must immediately revamp their plans to focus on signing Teixeira.