Then on August 22 against Boston, Burnett allowed 9 R in 5 IP. This was somehow determined to be Posada’s fault. And the conclusion is he “doesn’t know how to call a game” or something else detached from reality.

This isn’t even a case of correlation being mistaken for causation. This is simply nonsense.

Of course it seems like the pitcher and catcher are “working well together” when a pitcher has a good game. How could it feel otherwise. And of course it seems that they’re “out of sync” when the pitcher has a bad game. The fact of the matter is that it’s all about the pitcher. That’s why good pitcher are good pitchers from year to year and team to team, regardless of the guy behind the plate, and the not so good pitchers are not so good.

Taking Posada’s bat out of the lineup is a bad decision made by a manager who was a poor hitting catcher and overvalues his own contribution. Of course it worked out really well the one other time since 2000 this decision was made, with Randy Johnson pitching to Flaherty in 2005 in game 3 against LAA.

Ain’t no justice, no how!

But I completely agree with RI’s last line … not much here, move on team. This is a manager’s call and we can differ on it, but it is NOT something that normally will amount to a whole lot. 3 at-bats, keep saying that. Balance with single malt and better D + likelihood of better P.

What worries me now? The craziness of the media and attention will put MORE pressure on AJ. Just what he needs. Gives up a single in first, and walk, the craziness accelerates.

Isn’t there some quick and dirty conversion (like a single is “worth” .10 Runs on average, or some such)? That might be one way to look at how valuable three plate appearances are in general.

I don’t like this decision, but I can understand it. The pressure is certainly on Burnett to produce. And if he doesn’t in Game 2 all bets better be off in Game 5.

I keep sane knowing that we’re talking about maybe 3 plate appearances for Molina. Then with the Yankee bullpen they could bring in Posada as early as the sixth inning.

Monkeypants, I can try to think through the numbers. But I think, off the top of my head, that we’re talking about a very small decline in run expectancy.

These two batters do have an enormous difference in their OPS — it would be hard to find a realistic pair of starter/sub with a bigger one. But say over two games we see five PA with Molina instead of Posada. The expected difference is one single. That’s it. 400 points of OPS over five PA amounts to one single instead of a pop fly. Over two games. So, if Molina comes up with RISP every time, we’re looking at a run lost.

Sure, that could be the difference in a game, but not likely. Now account for (i) the improved defense, (ii) a little rest for Posada, (iii) even a slight improvement in Burnett’s performance, and I think this is not something to fret about much.

Presuming that the quality of opposition is the same, we have a K rate of 18.2% with Posada and 26.7% with Molina. Figure an average of 350 PA. Burnett has a career K rate of 21.9%. One standard deviation, given 21.9% as the true rate and 350 sample PA is .022 K per PA. That puts Posada and Molina at roughly 2 SD from the mean (each going the other way, obviously). (The real numbers are 1.9 SD for Posada, and 2.4 for Molina.)

Girardi claiming he made the decision w/o consulting Burnett…

Michael Kay is going to have a field day with this. Impossible to count how many times he flatly said “You do NOT take Posada’s bat out of the lineup in the playoffs. Burnett has to figure it out.”

While not on the level of batting Enrique Wilson leadoff, or Alex Rodriguez 8th, it’s still a dumb move… Maybe it is on the level of batting Wilson leadoff in the 03 ALCS.

But that’s my point … short sample, sport is random, all you do is play the odds as best you can with the cards you have. How do you have an ‘expectation materialize’ with certainty in sport, monkey? Think about what you guys are saying, in the context of the game we all know (and Girardi and his coaches and Cashman know too, a bit).

Further, if AJ stinks out the joint that much, we lose anyhow to Verlander, right?

I’m also not so sure Po is so good vs Verlander. May be wrong, but have a nagging hunch he ain’t. I say maximize your odds with your pitcher and defense, surrender 3 at-bats worth of improved batting odds. I guess we do have to disagree. But my main point is, it is typical apocalyptic Yankee fandom to say ‘Girardi’s job is on the line!’ or ‘AJ better dominate or else!’

They are playing odds and angles. You and I might disagree as to the right play, but it doesn’t become wrong if AJ gives up 6, and it doesn’t become right if Molina gets 2 doubles or even if AJ goes 7 for 1. Because he might have done it with Jorge, too!

I also think Girardi & Co also know more than we do about the dynamics here.

I think that Girardi, Cashman and who ever made this decision are fools.

I’m pretty certain this is how things will continue to play out in the playoffs. As such, I have a hard time believing that Molina’s ability to take away a SB here or there will come close to compensating for his sub-.600 OPS.

It all comes down to how AJ pitches. If he is lights out, then this is a genius decision. If not, there is some ‘splainin’ to do.

My wrath will be on the decision makers. This otherwise obviously foolish enterprise is predicated entirely on AJ pitching better–significantly better–to Molina than to Jorge. That is the only justification for replacing Jorge’s bat with Molina’s anemia. If that expectation does not materialize and it costs the team, the decision makers should have to answer to it on some level.