Good nite all.

This season alone, Maddon has bunted home two winning runs. Girardi would never do that. Heck, if you were really committed to the bunt, why not use Pena to hit for Miranda and then have him try the squeeze?

Every time I watch the Rays, he seems to make a positive difference. Girardi’s impact, however, is usually negative. I really think if he each man was managign the other team, the positions in the standing would be reversed.

If that’s the case then his best case is that a Winn hit wins the game.

And I think most people feel that Cano scoring clocks in at a much lower probability than you seem to think it does.

All Paplebon had to do was deliver the ball to home plate without throwing the ball above, below or past Martinez.

If you want to believe that the chance of that was less than the chance of Winn getting a hit (subsequently) then, well, we’re just going to have to agree to disagree, won’t we?

However, in my scenario, the worst case is the Yankees still need a hit from Winn to tie the game. In your scenario, that’s the best case. That’s where common sense comes into the equation, from my point of view.

Also, if it is a bother to have your opinion challenged, then by all means don’t engage. I wont feel left out, I promise.

Sometimes you stay on a 14 when the dealer shows a 16 and you win, sometimes you stay and the dealer hits and you lose
.
The outcome changes, the math that drives your decision doesn’t*.

The chance of Cano beating that ground ball back to the pitcher to the plate is less than the chance of Winn getting a hit, *that’s* my argument. We each know how we evaluate that equation, all that’s left is for everyone else to make their own calculation after watching the video.

It ain’t like I’ve got any interest in bothering to argue with *you*, I’ve spent too much time at Banter to bother with that …

*specific card calculations being the same.

The only horse being beaten is you trying to convince me that I am wrong without offering anything more than sarcasism, which is usually a refuge when a compelling argument is lacking.

Again, this is no surprise, it’s nothing new.

And, to belabor the point, it wasn’t that the play was “automatic” it was that the odds of an out at home were far worse than the odds of Winn coming through with a hit … but when you’ve got a dead horse to flog, those sorta things don’t matter, do they?

Btw, was Tex’s foot still on the bag? It sure as hell looked like it, but they never seemed to give us the perfect replay.

Because as a 1B myself, I sure thought he was still on.

But the biggest sin is that Joba punked out.