Today’s news is powered by a vintage performance from the incomparable Dave Brubeck Quartet, appearing tonight at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan:
- Today, Will Carroll is offering a conversation with Tommy John, and the doctor responsible for saving John’s career, and thereafter the careers of numerous pitchers, Dr. Frank Jobe.
- Also at Baseball Prospectus, they examine the mortal nature of Mariano Rivera (article from last Friday):
The number in his performance so far this season that immediately jumps out is his home-run rate, which sits at 1.8 HR/9. You may think this is easily explained by his new digs, as Yankee Stadium II hasn’t exactly been on friendly terms with pitchers these past two months, but that’s not the case: Mo has three home runs allowed at home in 16 2/3 innings, and a pair on the road in about half as much work. Four of his five homers allowed have come on fly balls, though he isn’t giving up anymore of those than he usually does. Another source of worry is his BABIP, which sits at a career-high .336. It’s not necessarily the fault of the Yankees‘ defense—they are right around the league average in Defensive Efficiency. The problem might be better found in Rivera’s liner rate, which sits at 25.4 percent, nearly a double-digit increase over his career rate, and much higher than anything we have seen from him since this data was first recorded back in 2002. This also means that his ground-ball rate is at its lowest since that time, which isn’t what you want to see when the ball is leaving the yard this often.
Additional homers and plenty of line drives means that Rivera is throwing pitches that the opposition can hit, whether with his famous cutter or pitches identified as vanilla fastballs. Using published velocity data going back to 2002 up through 2008, courtesy of Fangraphs, Rivera has averaged at least 93 miles per hour on pitches described as pure fastballs and, at its lowest, 92.8 mph on those classified as cutters. However slender the real distinction between the two pitches may be, this year Rivera is at 91.6 and 91.2 mph; while it’s tough to pin an exact run value on that missing velocity, the drop does hint that those extra liners and home runs aren’t from mere luck. This also puts some context behind his falling infield fly rate, which went from last year’s impressive 24.5 percent down to his current 14.3; while many pitchers would love to get that many popups, for Rivera it contributes to why his HR/FB rate has jumped from 7.5 to nearly 24 percent.
Rivera is also throwing fewer first-pitch strikes; while 59.6 percent is still above the average, it’s below his career rate and his recent work by a few percentage points. He’s also generating fewer swings and misses—16 percent overall, and just 14 percent when he’s behind in the count. That’s a significant drop from the past two seasons, when he made opponents swing and miss on nearly one-quarter of his pitches, and even more than that while behind the hitter.
[My take: Nice to see some reasonably hard data behind what we’ve perceived with our eyes.]
- Still going with Baseball Prospectus, some minutia:
The Yankees did not lead at any time in four straight games against the Red Sox, on May 4-5 and on Tuesday and Wednesday, only the fourth time that has happened in the 107-year history of the series, and the first time since 1974.
- Brian Bruney will NOT be on Francisco Rodriguez’s holiday card list:
The friction between the players stems from Bruney’s unsolicited comments about Rodriguez on Saturday. Bruney said that he did not like the way the animated Rodriguez acts on the mound and called Rodriguez “embarrassing.”
When Rodriguez was informed of Bruney’s comments on Saturday, he blasted him and challenged Bruney to speak to him face to face.
“Don’t be sending a message to the media,” Rodriguez said. “I don’t even know who that guy is, somewhere in Double-A and not even pitching one full season. He’s always been on the D.L. That’s all I really know right now. He’d better keep his mouth shut and do his job, and not worry about somebody else.”















