"A New York Treasure" --Village Voice

News of the Day – 12/29/08

It was 65 degrees here in NYC yesterday … they should have been playing baseball!  Here’s the news:

  • Newsday’s Kat O’Brien has an overview of the changes made by the Yankees to this point in the off-season.  Of some interest is the supposed offer the Yanks had on the table to Teixeira:

The Angels pulled their offer for Teixeira Dec. 21. That left the Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals and Orioles, though most reports had Teixeira choosing between the Red Sox and Nationals as late as Dec. 23, when he came to terms with the Yankees. The Yankees, at least publicly, were a dark horse.

Boras disputed that yesterday, as well as Newsday’s timeline of the negotiations. He said the Yankees had an offer on the table all along, though team sources say that was not the case.

  • Anthony McCarron of the News takes a position-by-position look at the Yanks roster, last year versus the current one, and likes what he sees … a lot.
  • John Sickels on MinorLeagueBall.com gives his Top 20 Yankee Prospects for 2009.  Here’s his top five:

1) Jesus Montero, C, Grade B+: I believe in the bat. Where he fits with the glove I don’t know.

2) Austin Jackson, OF, Grade B: Should be a solid player but not a star. Will that be enough in New York?
3) Dellin Betances, RHP, Grade B-: Very high ceiling, has flashed dominance, can he stay healthy?
4) Austin Romine, C, Grade B-: More likely to stick behind the plate than Montero, though not as good a hitter.
5) Zach McAllister, RHP, Grade B-: A favorite of mine heading into 2008, looks like a strong inning-eater type.

  • Andy Martino of the News has a long article detailing concerns over the pressures on Joba Chamberlain:

The pitcher’s success at 23 has come despite a family background marred by addiction and separation, and in part because of a big heart and strong work ethic.

But now some of the people closest to Chamberlain are concerned that he is changing, that his troubles are catching up with him despite his success or emerging because of it. With a worrisome pitching shoulder and DUI suddenly on his resume, Chamberlain faces a personal and professional crossroads in 2009, a year that could determine whether his legacy will be more lightning in a bottle or sustained light.

“Joba is a great person and I love him, but now he’s ventured into something that’s not so good,” says Wally Gant, a family friend who spent long afternoons on his front porch engaged in heart-to-hearts with the teenage Joba. “I heard through the grapevine that he had been drinking more. (Success) has gotten to his head a little. If he does things like this, he won’t be able to stay in the major leagues.”

  • Marty Noble of MLB.com recaps the stellar career of David Cone, but admits it most likely won’t be enough to gain him entrance into the Hall:

Not the most accomplished pitcher of his time, Cone nonetheless developed a reputation for Bob Gibson resolve and the stamina of a marathoner that set him apart from most of those with totals greater than his. How his achievements, image as a Hessian and five World Series rings will resonate with those casting Hall of Fame ballots is yet to be determined. Cone is among 10 players new to the ballot this year. But he appears to be a candidate who will elicit support out of respect and not only for his statistical achievement.

Gaining the minimum support for election — inclusion on 75 percent of the ballots distributed to more than 575 members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America — appears to be a long shot for Cone, particularly with a sure-fire candidate, Rickey Henderson, among the new 10 and three holdover candidates named on at least 60 percent of the ballots cast last year, Jim Rice (72.2 percent), Andre Dawson (65.9) and Bert Blyleven (61.0).

[My take: Here are his stats.  One can only wonder what kind of toll his arm took by having eight starts of 141 or more pitches during 1991 and 1992, including that famous 166-pitch outing in July 1992.  I think he’ll be named on 15% of ballots this year, creep up a bit over the next three or four years, then drift off the chart.]

  • Jaret Wright turns 33 today.  Wright managed to go a combined 16-12 in two seasons with the Yanks despite allowing 238 hits and 89 walks in only 204 IP.  The Yanks were nonetheless able to peddle Wright to the Orioles for Chris Britton.
  • Richie Sexson turns 34 today.  “Big Sexy” continued his impotent ways after the Yanks signed him in July of ’08.  K’ing 10 times in 28 ABs, he was released by late-August.
  • Dennis Werth, who had cups of coffee with the Yanks in ’79, ’80 and ’81, turns 56.
  • On this date in 1933, Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert refuses to release Babe Ruth from his contract, thus preventing him from becoming the manager of the Cincinnati Reds. Ruth will never receive a chance to manage a major league team.
  • On this date in 1977, Melissa Ludtke, female Sports Illustrated sports writer, files suit against MLB, the Yankees and New York City officials for denying her access to the locker room to interview players during the 1977 World Series.

Same Sad Song

This is an artistic re-creation of life as a Jets fan. charliebrownlucyfootball

Lucy is the Jets, Charlie Brown is a Jets fan.

Thud.  Is Lucy really worth hating (I vote, yes)?  Or is Charlie Brown just a schmuck?

That’s Rich

money_tree

It always cracks me up when I read columns about how buying championships, as the Yankees appear to do doing again this winter, is a losing cause. Sure, it doesn’t always work, we know that (and thank goodness, because it keeps things interesting). But facts are facts: since the start of free agency in 1977, no team has spent more money on players than the Yankees have; no team has won more pennants or more championships. So while no team can ever fool themselves that they can pre-arrange success (as George Steinbrenner was accused of believing in the Eighties), the Yankees aggresiveness in the free agency market hasn’t always back fired either.

Do you think they should bring Pettitte back? The word this past week is that it’s now unlikely that he’ll return. Would you rather go Hughes-Chamberlain or still have a veteran like Pettitte in there?

News of the Day – 12/27/08

Here’s hoping your holidays were filled with joy and baseball … and now, on to the news:

  • The Post’s Mike Puma gives us some more good reviews of Mark Teixeira:

“We all know with multiyear contracts the risk you take, but if you’re going to take one on a position player, he’s certainly one you strongly consider,” said former Yankees manager Buck Showalter, who managed Teixeira with Texas. “He’s going to stay healthy, he’s not going to embarrass you on or off the field. He’s a clean, solid citizen.” …

“I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone say a bad word about him,” said Jason Basil, a former college teammate. “He came in to Georgia Tech highly touted, and when that happens you kind of expect the guy to have a little bit of an attitude, but it never happened. I think anybody who he ever played with considers him a friend to this day.”….

“His dad was a Navy pilot, and that kind of discipline rubs off on anybody,” said former Blue Jays manager Buck Martinez, who became friends with Teixeira two years ago during the World Baseball Classic. “Just look at Mark. He looks like he could have gone to the Naval Academy with the way he takes care of himself, the close-cropped hair.”…

“Mark can do so many things with the bat and he’s a Gold Glove first baseman, but his ability to fit in with any situation is really an asset for him,” Martinez said.

“He’s not going to let you in too deep,” Showalter said. “[Because of his time at] Georgia Tech [and] a military background with his dad, he understands the professional part and the business part of the game. He’s not led around on a nose ring by [Boras]. Mark knows there is a time for business and a time for baseball.”

  • At NPR.com, Stefan Fatsis talks about the immense cash flow of the Bombers, and how it allows them to make these types of signings.
  • Over at LoHud, Pete Abe discusses the seeming lack of love the Yanks have shown to their best pitcher of late, Chien-Ming Wang:

Dave Eiland referred to Chien-Ming Wang as the No. 3 starter in a story Pete Caldera did for The Record. Labeling starters is a fruitless exercise. But it’s further evidence of how little respect the Yankees give Wang.

The Yankees took Wang to arbitration last year to avoid paying him an extra $600,000. And now Eiland is dismissing him as a No. 3 starter. Memo to Eiland: Wang is 46-15 with a 3.74 ERA since the start of the 2006 season. Burnett is 38-26, 3.94. Wang’s career ERA+ is 117. Burnett is at 111. …

In time, people will figure out that Wang’s sinker makes him the exception to the idea that a great pitcher has to strike a bunch of guys out. If the Yankees don’t, another team will once he becomes a free agent.

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I Don’t Remember the Words but I Can Hum It

Here’s some classic TV theme songs from the Seventies for you:

Sanford and Son:

Barney Miller:

The Jeffersons:

Fat Albert:

And my favorite, Taxi:

From the Button Down Mind

The Classic Routine.

Observations From Cooperstown–Lineups, Ellis, and Dave Smith

We now know that Mark Teixeira will play first base and bat third (or possibly fourth) in the Yankees’ revamped lineup, but what effect will his addition have on the rest of the lineup’s configuration? The Yankees need to find a new role for Nick “Son of Steve” Swisher, who was originally targeted to play first after being acquired for Wilson Betemit. They also need to figure out roles for Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui, while deciding who will play center field on a regular basis.

In the aftermath of the Teixeira signing, I’ve heard a number of observers suggest that the Yankees will put Swisher in center field, sandwiched between Johnny Damon in left and Nady in right. That alignment would maximize the Yankees’ offensive potential, but would also leave them with a below-average defensive center fielder, continuing an unsavory tradition that first began with Bernie Williams’ declining years.

Another potential solution would be to trade one of the following: Swisher, Nady, or Matsui, thereby alleviating the logjam in right field and DH. I’m not necessarily against that possibility, but only if the Yankees can acquire something of value for one of those players, specifically a center fielder or a backup catcher, or a useful pitcher. There should be no giveaways here; if the offers for Nady, Swisher, and Godzilla are subpar, keep them all. There’s nothing wrong with having one of these veterans on the bench each day. The Yankees have operated without a competent bench for far too long.

Here’s the alignment I’d prefer, one that would make defense and flexibility higher priorities. I’d put Swisher in right field, where he would platoon with Nady. I’d tell Nady to bring his infielder’s glove to spring training and be ready to put in work as a backup at both the hot corner and first base. Matsui would remain in the DH role, where he would give way to Jorge Posada on days in which the Yankees faced left-handers. And then I’d hand the center field reins over to Brett Gardner, who gives the Yankees the most range and speed of any of their outfielders. If Gardner, batting ninth, ends up a failure against major league pitching, then the Yankees can always try Melky Cabrera or Swisher later in the season.

Defense, flexibility, and the bench. Those should be the Yankees’ points of emphasis. Either directly or indirectly, Teixeira will help all three areas…

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Back In Black: Accounting for the 2009 Yankees

Here’s an update of the chart I posted two weeks ago comparing the Yankees’ 2008 payroll to their 2009 commitments:

Credits
Player 2008 cost 2009 cost Net
Jason Giambi 21 5 (buyout) 16
Bobby Abreu 16 16
Andy Pettitte 16 16
Mike Mussina 11 11
Carl Pavano 11 1.95 (buyout) 9.05
Ivan Rodriguez 4.3* 4.3
Kyle Farnsworth 3.7* 3.7
Total Credits 76.05
Debits
Mark Teixeira 25 (25)
CC Sabathia 23 (23)
A.J. Burnett 16.5 (16.5)
Wilson Betemit/Nick Swisher 1.165 5.3 (4.135)
Alex Rodriguez 29 33 (4)
Robinson Cano 3 6 (3)
Damaso Marte 0.667* 3.75 (3.083)
Chien-Ming Wang 4 5 (1)
Total Debits (79.718)
Total Net (3.668)

all costs in millions of dollars; *estimated prorated portion of 2008 salary

As you can see, even after signing CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees’ commitments for 2009 are still within $4 million of their 2008 payroll. That number will increase. Coming off a career year, Xavier Nady will earn a few million more via arbitration (Brian Bruney and Melky Cabrera are also arb-eligible, but unlikely to get significant raises), and there’s still a chance that the Yankees will add payroll via a one-year deal for Andy Pettitte or an alternate fifth-starter or a veteran center fielder. There are also automatic incremental raises due to the team’s pre-arbitration players based on major league playing time. Even still, the net change in team payroll will be negligible relative to the massive dollar figures connected to those three new contracts.

It’s also worth noting that Burnett and Sabathia will earn the exact same amount in each year of their contracts (for Sabathia his 2009 earnings combine a $9 million signing bonus and a $14 million salary, but his salary in every other year of the contract is an even $23 million), while Mark Teixeira will actually earn less in the subsequent years of his contract as his 2009 earnings combine a $5 million signing bonus and a $20 million salary, but he’ll earn “just” $20 million in 2010 and $22.5 million in each subsequent year of his deal.

News of the Day – 12/25/08

How on Earth did they fit CC, A.J. and Tex all under the same tree?  Anyhow … here’s the news:

  • The Times‘ Ben Shpigel introduces us to Mark Teixeira, the man:

That is who the 28-year-old Teixeira is: polite, humble, private. It would be unlike him to open up and discuss influential moments in his life that have produced his strong work ethic, his quest for order and routine, and an ability to focus and compartmentalize that is admired by peers.

When he was 15, a freshman at Mount St. Joseph’s High School outside Baltimore, he learned that his mother, Margy, had breast cancer. Weak from chemotherapy, Margy, now cancer-free, still found a way to attend her son’s baseball games.

Before his senior year, he lost one of his closest friends, Nick Liberatore, when a truck driver fell asleep and slammed into a parked car that Liberatore was sitting in along a shoulder of Interstate 95. For the next year, every Wednesday night Teixeira and his friends would eat dinner with the Liberatore family, and he has since endowed a scholarship in his friend’s name. And in 2002, Teixeira’s father, a former Navy pilot, had a benign brain tumor that caused him to lose his hearing in his left ear.

“Whatever I’ve gone through, I think it’s all allowed me to enjoy the game, but to understand the role of the game in life, too,” Teixeira told The Dallas Morning News in 2005. “If you enjoy playing the game, it’s going to be easier to focus on the game and put things in their proper place. When you are between the lines, it is a game that should be enjoyed. When you are in the clubhouse or getting ready, it’s work. And when you go home, it should stay in the clubhouse.”

[My take: I think I’m gonna like this guy … even if I dislike his agent.]

  • BP.com’s Will Carroll chimes in on the spending ways of the Yanks:

Yes, the Yankees spent a lot of money, but they didn’t suddenly spend money they didn’t have. They used money coming off the books and backloaded to work with money that’s coming off the books next year as well. I’m not defending them against charges that they’re “buying championships” but I would like to see some acknowledgement that the Yankees aren’t in some new era of spending. They’re just still spending, like they always have.

Add in some interesting ways of looking at the Marginal Revenue per Win calculations might make this make even more financial sense as the economy continues to turn down.

  • Still at BP.com, Joe Sheehan echoes Will’s sentiment, and adds some more:

… They’re leveraging not only the greater marginal revenue that can be generated by each win in New York City, but also their massive cash flow in an industry in which many, even most, teams are hoarding cash in an unsure economy. Other fans and other owners may complain, but the money is coming in; it can go into the team’s pockets, or it can be used to improve the baseball team. If the scale doesn’t work, change the scale—fix the revenue-sharing formulas to factor in market size and potential revenues, as Keith Woolner suggested forever ago—but don’t blame a team for trying to win. Ever. For all of the focus on the $420-odd million the Yankees have committed to three players, their 2009 payroll won’t be much more than the 2008 one … .

  • FOX Sports’ Dayn Perry takes a look at the new baseball landscape carved by the signings:

Sure, they’ve committed themselves to more than $400 million in guaranteed monies, but it’s been done in the service of winning the World Series. In strict on-the-field terms, the Teixeira signing was a necessary step. The consequences, though, will reach far beyond the diamond.  …

After the arbitration raises kick in and they make another addition or two (Pettitte? Mike Cameron?), their 2009 payroll still might not exceed their 2008 tab. That’s a point worth keeping in mind, even as righteous indignation is on the rise. Want something to be outraged about? There’s this: If the Yankees can fork over almost half-a-billion in player salaries in the span of a month, then it seems they should be able to pay for their own place of business without bilking taxpayers.

In other words, while the Yankees are benefitting from a system that badly needs additional revenue sharing, nothing much has changed from last off-season. If you’re among the legions of Yankee haters out there, you should draw hope from the fact that the Yankees are setting themselves up for a failure of unimaginable proportions. They’re probably going to return to the postseason in 2009. However, as recent history has taught us, that vaunted Yankee revenue stream can’t guarantee success in the postseason. It’s simply too random.

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Curtain Call

31_yankeesphotoop_lg

I was at the final game at Yankee Stadium and wrote a bonus piece for SI.com on what the night was like for Ray Negron:

It was just before one o’clock in the morning on Sept. 22, but the scoreboard clock was frozen at 12:21. The last game at Yankee Stadium was over, Sinatra had finally stopped singing New York, New York, and organist Ed Alstrom was playing Goodnight, Sweetheart. The home team had won 7-3 in a game that meant nothing in the standings but everything in a deeper, gut-felt way. The Yankees would not be going to the postseason for the first time since 1993, yet they had drawn 4.3 million fans, including another capacity-plus 54,640 on this night. And now, as the last of them drifted out of the ballpark, it felt like closing night for a hit Broadway show.

Now it was just the clean-up crew swinging into action and a select group of others clinging to the night — players and their families, reporters, radio and TV personalities, cameramen, front office workers, the grounds crew and cops, lots of cops. People hugged and slapped hands and talked and laughed. Players scooped up dirt and grass and put them in paper cups and Ziploc bags. Grown men had their pictures taken at home plate, on the mound and sliding into second. It was like Never-Never Land — everyone was a child. Why would anyone want to go home, knowing they were the last precious few to soak in the Stadium? They stayed, stuck between history and the wrecking ball, until the head of security announced that it was time to leave.

Ray Negron was out on the field, right where he belonged, with the players and sportswriters. Ray had seen them all — from DiMaggio and Mantle to Reggie and A-Rod. He was there when they came to play at the Stadium and he was still there when they left.

alg_negron

Christmas Came Early (Tex Marks The Spot)

What’s my take on the Yankees signing Mark Teixeira? Regular readers might already know:

Some samples from the above:

Teixeira was third among major league first basemen in VORP last year, behind only a pair of monster seasons by Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. Pujols is the best player in baseball, an institution in St. Louis, and signed through 2011 (if you count the club option that is all but guaranteed to be picked up). He’s also the same age as Teixeira. Berkman will be 33 on Opening Day, and is also signed through 2011 (again counting a club option for the final year). Over the past four seasons, Teixeira has averaged 55.05 VORP per season. Last year the only other first baseman to surpass that mark was Kevin Youkilis, who is 11 months older than Teixeira.

Though the Yankees are flush with pitching prospects, outside of Montero, they don’t have any coming mashers in their system. Teixeira was fifth among all hitters in baseball in VORP last year. He’s also a superb defender, and won’t turn 29 until April. Prior to this past season, PECOTA projected that Teixeira would hit .284/.384/.502 in his age-34 season in 2014. Teixeira then beat his PECOTA projection for 2008. A seven year contract that would take Teixeira through age 35 would not be a bad investment.

The Yankee system is nearly barren when it comes to everyday player prospects. Center fielder Austin Jackson is the only notable hitting prospect in the organization to have played above the Sally League, and catcher Jesus Montero is the only prospect in the system who projects as an elite run producer at the plate. . . . Whenever an elite run producer becomes available while still in his 20s, the Yankees absolutely must prioritize that player in order to compensate for their failure to properly stock the farm system with bats. When such a player becomes available at a position of existing need at the major league level, as is the case with Mark Teixeira this offseason, the Yankees have an obligation to their fans and the future of the franchise to sign that player.

It’s quite possible that none of the young pitchers listed above will mature into the sort of dominant ace that CC Sabathia has become, but then again, one might. In fact, more than one might. There is, however, no chance of any player in the Yankee farm system maturing into an all-around defensive and offensive weapon on par with Mark Teixeira. If Brian Cashman is serious about the team-building process he began in the winter of 2005, if Hal Steinbrenner is serious about allowing Cashman to execute his vision, the Yankees must immediately revamp their plans to focus on signing Teixeira.

L – Johnny Damon (LF)
R – Derek Jeter (SS)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S/R – Swisher/Nady (RF)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
L – Brett Gardner (CF)

Take Teixeira out of that lineup and it’s not a pretty picture given the 2008 performances of Posada, Matsui, Cano, and Gardner and the advancing age of Damon, Jeter, Posada, and Matsui. . . . Oh, and before I go, here’s one more lineup to consider:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Kevin Youkilis (3B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
S – Jed Lowrie (SS)
Does it really matter? (C)

That can’t be allowed to happen.

The ideal solution to the Yankees’ production problems would be Mark Teixeira, a player who fits the Yankees’ needs about as perfectly as can be given his position, youth, and defensive reputation, the last of which stands in stark contrast to the Yankees 13th place finish in defensive efficiency among AL teams in 2008. With Sabathia off the market, Teixeira is now the belle of the free agent ball, and while it would be obscene for the Yankees to land both CC and Tex, modesty didn’t stop them from giving Burnett an obscene contract.

. . .

Still, even after the Burnett signing, chasing Teixeira is not out of the question for the Yankees. With big contracts including those of Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Pavano, and the retired Mike Mussina coming off the books, the Yankees still have, by my math, $23.5 left over from their 2008 payroll, which is very close to the average annual salary Teixeira’s is likely to make under his next contract, which is likely to resemble Sabathia’s and its $23 million annual average.

Would the Yankees dare hand out another nine-figure deal after spending $242.5 million on a pair of starting pitchers? Stay tuned.

The figure in that last sentence should say $243.5 million, but throw that out; it’s now $423.5 million, nearly half-a-billion dollars, for three players. That’s obscene, but Alex addressed my liberal guilt already, so I’ll not dwell on it. The reality of the situation is that, per the figures quoted above, the Yankees’ 2009 payroll is still roughly equivalent to their 2008 payroll, only the team has redirected the money they had been spending on aging players (including the declining and defensively challenged Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, the 40-year-old Mike Mussina, and the comically fragile Carl Pavano) to a 29-year-old lefty who is arguably the best pitcher in the game, a 29-year-old switch-hitting, Gold Glove first baseman who is among the most productive hitters in the game, and, well, A.J. Burnett (can’t win ’em all). So, really, the Yankees’ spending is no more obscene than it was before they handed out these three contracts, it’s just a lot smarter (well, at least 67% smarter).

I think it’s worth pointing out that, because Teixeira has switched leagues mid-season each of the last two years, his two best seasons have been somewhat obscured. He won the Gold Glove in his last two single-league seasons (2005 and 2006), and in his last two campaigns posted these lines:

2007: .306/.400/.563 (150 OPS+), 30 HR, 105 RBI, 53.1 VORP
2008: .308/.410/.552 (151 OPS+), 33 HR, 121 RBI, 67.7 VORP

In 2008, he also drew 97 walks against 93 strikeouts. Oh, and on his career he’s slugging exactly .541 against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.

Really, the only reason not to like the Teixeira deal is the length of the contract, but Tex will still be just 36 in the eighth and final year of the deal. By comparison, Jason Giambi was 37 last year and hit .247/.373/.502. Teixeira’s ex-teammate and fellow switch-hitter Chipper Jones was 36 last year and hit .364/.470/.574.  Here’s a quick look at the age-36 seasons of the top seven players listed as most similar to Teixeira at his current age 28 on Baseball-Reference:

  • Carlos Delgado: bounced back from a league-average age-35 season to hit .271/.353/.518. Never had an OPS+ below 129 from ages 28 to 34.
  • Kent Hrbek: retired after a poor age-34 season.
  • Fred McGriff: Production fell off after age 30, but stayed comfortably above average. Hit .277/.373/.452 at age 36.
  • Jim Thome: Save for a season lost to a broken hand, mashed every year through to his .275/.410/.563 performance at age 36.
  • Will Clark: Had just one OPS+ below 123 from age 30 to 36; went out with a flourish as he retired after a .319/.418/.546 performance at age 36.
  • Jeff Bagwell: First OPS+ below 135 came in age-35 season. Hit .266/.377/.465 at age 36.
  • Willie McCovey: Often on DL after age 32, but other than his age-34 season, was still mashing when healthy. Hit .253/.416/.506 in 344 at-bats at age 36.

I’d rate those as four positive indicators (Delgado, Thome, Clark, Bagwell), one negative (Hrbek), and two middling (McGriff with McCovey only because of the injuries).

As mentioned above, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, which projects players’ future performance based on the careers of similar players throughout the history of the game, predicted prior to last season that Teixeira would stay healthy and productive through to a .284/.384/.502 performance at age-34 (the PECOTA Cards only show the ensuing seven years). Teixeira has since beaten his PECOTA projection for 2008.

You can never know what will happen in the future. All long-term contracts are risks, but it seems to me that Teixeira is among the best bets in baseball to still be healthy and productive eight years from now. As for 2009, he’s exactly the player the Yankees need. The only catch is that having landed both CC and Tex, they’ll have no excuses if they fail to win it all next year, but then, that’s the way they like it.

. . .

By the way, Alex shot me a note to let me know that Todd Drew had his surgery yesterday. All went smoothly and he is recovering nicely. The Yankees signing Teixeira is nice and all, but getting a good word on Todd was the best news of the day, and the real reason that Christmas came early here at the Banter.

News of the Day – 12/24/08

Powered by “A Charlie Brown Ad Agency“, here’s the news:

  • Unless you’ve been under a rock the past 24 hours, you already know this …. Mark Teixeira will be with the Yankees for the next eight years, at about $22.5M per year, with a full no-trade clause and no opt-out clause, as per ESPN.com, the Times, MLBTradeRumors, MLB.com, SI.com, YESNetwork (amongst many many many sites).
  • Here is MLBTradeRumors‘ collection of reactions to the signings (some of which I show down below).
  • Keith Law at ESPN.com applauds the deal from the Yanks’ perspective:

He’s probably the best defensive player relative to his position on the Yankees now, and could be one of only two or three who are above average depending on how the rest of the roster shakes out. He adds significant power to a lineup that had just two players slug over .500 this past year, and his .410 OBP in 2008 would have led the Yankees by 18 points.

Coupled with the loss of Jason Giambi, the signing of Teixeira means a net gain to the Yankees of four to five wins, considering both his bat and his defense. He also eliminates the need the Yankees had for a right-handed caddy for Giambi, since Teixeira is a true switch-hitter with power and patience from both sides of the plate. The Yanks still have to find a solution in center field, unless they decide to give Melky Cabrera the job again and live with the consequences if he continues to struggle. However, if they re-sign Andy Pettitte, they’re just about done.

  • Stephen A. Smith likes the signing too, but still thinks they need Manny.

This is about winning, folks! And I’m not talking about the stretch of seasons from 2001 to 2007 when the Yankees won a minimum of 94 games, before settling for 89 wins this past fall. I’m talking about the world championships those Red Sox captured this decade. The titles they would not have captured were it not for a few of those 274 homers Ramirez hit for them over the course of his eight seasons in Boston.

If Ramirez’s production after being traded to the Dodgers on July 31 — .396 batting average, 17 homers, 53 RBIs and .743 slugging percentage in 53 games — wasn’t enough, perhaps it’s worth paying attention to what the Yankees’ offensive output was this past season. …

Now, imagine if Ramirez and his .314 lifetime batting average were lumped into that lineup. Backing up Alex Rodriguez. Acting as a catalyst for Robinson Cano. And Hideki Matsui, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. Imagine, for a moment, the run production. The fear it would instill.

[My take: He isn’t signing with the Sox, Angels or Rays … so that’s just as good, right?  Smith should stick to wondering if LeBron will be the next guy taking a New York team’s money.]

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More Good News

I received an e-mail from Todd Drew’s wife yesterday afternoon. She said that Todd made it through surgery just fine. Talk about a Christmas present. For those who might have missed it, Todd, part of the Banter writing team, has a rare kind of stomach cancer. He’s going to be laid up in the hospital over the holidays but he appears to be doing well. I’m a head on over there later today and drop off a care package of books and articles (and today’s papers!) for when he’s ready to read again.

I know I can speak for Cliff, but I’ll be bold and speak for the entire Bronx Banter crew, in sending love and the best holiday cheer to Todd and his wife and their entire family. This is great news. I will keep you posted. Any thoughts you have, leave ’em in the comments section below and I’ll make sure to print them out and give them to Todd.

How to Stop Worrying and Learn to Love US Steel

It is cold and now dark in New York but there is plenty of heat being generated by the afternoon news that Mark Teixeira has agreed to an eight-year deal with the Yankees.  My friend Rich Lederer, an Angels fan, called me from the golf course in California.  He was not happy.  He practically yelled on the phone he was so irritated.

How can you root for a team that has such an uneven financial advantage?  How is that fun?  Where’s the competition in that? 

“I hope they lose every single game,” Pat Jordan said to me when I called with the news a few hours later.  Both men, incidentally, are Republican, but they are also both rebellious, outsiders, self-made men.  They aren’t the kind that get off rooting for US Steel.

Yet here I am, a New York Liberal, and yet US Steel, that’s my team.  I used to have guilt about it, for years it worried me.  Then I grew up.  What’s the use feeling guilty?  You have accept what is.  Professional baseball isn’t a game.  The Yankees are out to win, every year, forever.  Isn’t that why Ban Johnson created the Highlanders in the first place?  They will spend whatever it they have to spend.  They pay a big luxury tax in return.  They might offend everything you stand for.  So be it.  I get it.

I like being a Yankee fan.  If Yankee fans are cursed by anthing, it is the teams’ ruthless ambition and unyielding arrogance.  The curse for a rational-minded Yankee fan is that you are rooting for the front-runner, the bullies. And if you are overly neurotic you will question what that says about your moral fiber.  So, we listen to other fans ridicule our team as something less-than-wholesome, something corrupt. 

As far as curses go, it’s not so bad.   After all, being a Yankee fan also means knowing, feeling in your bones, that you’ll see your team win again, and probably some time soon.  Which is not to say that it will happen, but Yankee fans feel as if it should, and, inevitably, that it will happen.  Being a Yankee fan also means wishing for, and often getting, big, fat, expensive Christmas presents like a CC or a Teixeira.  Sometimes, the toy doesn’t make it out the box before it breaks–Don Gullet, Jose Contreras, Carl Pavano.    

But you can’t predict the future and for the moment, all you can say is that you feel pretty warm in a cold, hard world.

Cash Money

All I want for Christmas is…

gg

EVERYTHING.

According to Buster Olney at ESPN, Mark Teixeira is going to be a Yankee.

What’s Wang With This Picture?

Chien-Ming Wang, 2008 Topps

The Yankees have signed Chien-Ming Wang to a $5 million contract for the 2009, thereby avoiding arbitration with the first of their four arb-eligible players (Xavier Nady, Melky Cabrera, and Brian Bruney are the other three). The contract in and of itself is insignificant. Wang made $4 million last year, but missed the second half of the season with a lisfranc fracture in his foot and thus only got a $1 million raise. No big deal. I do, however, find the Yankees’ treatment of Wang’s arbitration years interesting.

Last year, Wang and Robinson Cano both became eligible for arbitration for the first time. With Cano asking for $4.55 million in 2008, the Yankees decided to buy out his arbitration years entirely with a four-year, $30 million contract. Wang, meanwhile, asked for $4.6 million and the Yankees took him to arbitration to save $600,000 and beat him.

To me, that says alot about the Yankees’ relative enthusiasm for these two players. That’s not to say that they don’t value Wang on a year-to-year basis, but Wang is 2 1/2 years older than Cano and, while its easy to forget even following his foot injury this past season, he has a less than rosy injury history.

Way back in 2001, labrum surgery cost Wang all of his second professional season, forcing him to restart at short-season Staten Island at age 22 in 2002. In his rookie season of 2005, he was shut down in mid-July with another labrum scare that, fortunately, turned out to be solved by his simply spending two months on the DL. In 2007, he started the season on the DL with a hamstring strain suffered in spring training, and last year he broke his foot running the bases in Houston, ending his season after just 15 starts. Thus, Wang has avoided the DL in just one of his four major league seasons.

Beyond those injuries, Wang is also sometimes looked upon with suspicion because of his poor strikeout rates. He has been able to succeed despite striking out just 4.02 men per nine inning on his career (against a league average of 6.48) because of his extreme ground-ball rate, but there’s a sense that that balance will not hold indefinitely. Fortunately, Wang managed to increase his strikeout rate in both 2007 and 2008, topping out at 5.12 K/9 last year thanks to the coaching of Dave Eiland, who had him working in more sliders when he needed a K. Unfortunately, Wang’s walk rates have risen as well, so that his K/BB ratio has held relatively steady near his career sub-par 1.58 mark (league average is 2.01).

On top of concerns about his fragility and effectiveness, there’s age. Wang was 25 as a rookie and will be 29 this season. That’s certainly not old, but he’s several months older than both CC Sabathia and  Josh Beckett. Wang’s arbitration years will take him to age 30, where as Cano’s contract is only guaranteed through his age-28 season. It seems to me that this is the primary reason why the Yankees are taking Wang year-by-year, but went ahead and bought out Cano’s arbitration years in bulk.

There’s another thing that strikes me about Wang’s new one-year deal. It seems unlikely that Wang’s value is going to be lower next year than it is now. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for the Yankees to try to negotiate a two-year deal and thereby preemptively suppress Wang’s 2010 salary based on his injury-shortened 2008 season? Perhaps having failed to get a multi-year deal out of the Yankees last year, Wang and his agents wouldn’t agree to such a thing. Still, I think the fact that the Yankees continue to go year-by-year with Wang supports a notion I had when the Yankees signed A.J. Burnett for five years:

The Yankees don’t intend to re-sign Chien-Ming Wang after he becomes a free agent.

Think about it. Sabathia is signed for at least three years and possibly seven. Burnett is signed for five years. Joba Chamberlain is well on his way to establishing himself in the rotation. That’s three spots in the 2011 rotation that are already spoken for. Wang will become a free agent following the 2010 season. If the Yankees can, over the next two years, develop just two more young arms (with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Zach McAllister being the top candidates), there’s no room for Wang in 2011, and no need to pay a free-agent salary to a player whose arbitration years the Yankees wouldn’t even buy out. Even if the Yankees only develop one more starter by 2011, that leaves just one empty spot in the 2011 rotation, and there’s a good chance that they will be able to find a better way to fill that last spot than to give a big-money, long-term deal to a 31-year-old Chien-Ming Wang.

Of course, when it comes to pitching anything can happen. It could be that none of the pitchers above is healthy or productive enough to claim a rotation spot in 2011. Projecting pitching even just three years into the future is a dangerous game, but the way everything looks right now, I think we’re only going to see Wang in pinstripes for two more years. Enjoy him while you can.

News of the Day – 12/23/08

Powered by a $275,000 to $400,000 watch, here’s the news:

  • ESPN.com’s Buster Olney recaps the offers made to Mark Teixeira to this point, and foresees that Tex will wind up with the BoSox at the end of all the circus acts:

Mark Teixeira told Red Sox owner John Henry the other day that he has offers higher than what the Red Sox offered, but as Boston gauges the market, it’s clear that club executives now must have serious doubts about that.

Does Teixeira really have lots of offers for more than what the Red Sox are offering? Clearly, Boston doesn’t think so. Only Boras knows for sure.

It seems that the game has played itself out, the last cards have been dealt, and now Teixeira is in position to make his decision. The read on the table here, still, is that he will sign with the Red Sox.

  • The Record’s Bob Klapisch thinks a Girardi/Manny combo won’t work:

Just how much of the Yankees’ ineptitude was the fault of the over-zealous manager, who transferred his anxiety onto his players? Girardi’s postgame death stare was legend in the clubhouse; at times he wouldn’t even speak to his players, much less look at them, as he marched back to his office after a loss.

So before they start negotiating in earnest with Scott Boras, Manny’s agent, the Yankees need to consider how Ramirez would respond to Girardi’s state trooper mentality. Here’s an early theory: He won’t.

Put it this way: How likely is it that Manny would shed his dreadlocks for Girardi, as per club policy? Ramirez did trim his hair for Torre, but only by an insignificant amount. Torre, knowing that he needed a happy and productive Manny during a three-month rental, chose not to push the issue.

  • MLB.com reports that the Yanks avoided arbitration with Chien-Ming Wang by signing him to a one-year deal worth $5 million.

[My take: Do only position players get offered deals to buy out arbitration and/or free agency years?  Given Wang’s excellent track record, his youth, and the fact that none of his injuries have been arm-related, would there be any incentive for the Yanks to wrap him up for a few years, at least in terms of vesting options based on innings pitched?  The Tribe are well-known for buying out a year or two of free agency of young position players, saving a few bucks now and down the road.  But the Yanks have only done that sort of thing with one player of recent vintage (Cano), and so far, its not a bargain for the Bombers.  Nonetheless, if I’m Wang, I’m looking at A.J. Burnett’s track record and saying “we get outs in different ways, but I’m just as effective in terms of winning games.  How about a multi-year deal for me?”]

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Card Corner–Dock Ellis

dockellis

The world of baseball lost one of its most colorfully eccentric characters on Friday, when former Yankee Dock Ellis died from liver failure. A mere 63 years of age, Ellis managed to pack more “living” (both good and bad) into those years than most of us could have done in a hundred and 63 years.

The following are excerpts from my original manuscript on the 1971 Pirates, a team that featured Ellis as one of its most central figures. We’ll miss you, Dock.

The veteran right-hander certainly possessed the repertoire of a winning pitcher: a fastball that ran away from right-handed hitters, a sinking fastball, an effective but sparingly used breaking ball and a tenacious mindset. In one of his 1970 regular season starts, Ellis had demonstrated all of his talents at their peaks. On June 12, he had forged a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres, overcoming eight walks, a hit batsman, and several bases-loaded situations. His lone post-season start also showcased his occasional brilliance. In a playoff game against the Reds, Ellis concluded his season with nine innings of shutout pitching, before falling to fatigue and giving up three runs in the 10th to lose the game—and the series.

While Ellis possessed many talents, his resume also carried several red flags. The owner of a fragile right arm, Ellis [in 1970] had missed six weeks in August and September with elbow soreness, which cast some doubt on his health heading into the new season. Ellis had also proven to be a source of controversy. He had criticized the Pirate coaching staff for a failure to detect an unnatural change in his pitching motion and had feuded off and on with Pittsburgh-area writers. More significantly, Ellis possessed a dark side that had not been fully revealed to the public; the 26-year-old pitcher was using a variety of drugs. As he would disclose many years later, he had pitched his no-hitter against the Padres under the severe influence of LSD. Ellis had also taken prescription drugs Benzedrine and Dexamyl within two hours of his masterpiece at San Diego Stadium.

***

Just a few weeks earlier, Ellis had made headlines by predicting that he would not be selected to start the All-Star Game. Ellis had reasoned that with American League manager Earl Weaver likely to select the sizzling Vida Blue as his starter, baseball’s powers-that-be would want at least one white pitcher starting the midsummer classic in Detroit. “They wouldn’t pitch two brothers against each other,” Ellis told a reporter from the New York Times. Ellis also offered a secondary reason for a possible snub. “Sparky Anderson [the National League manager] doesn’t like me.”

Much to the pitcher’s surprise, Anderson announced that Ellis would start and would indeed face Blue in Detroit. Anderson denied that Ellis’ comments had, in any way, swayed his decision. “His 14-3 record and the fact that he hasn’t pitched since last Tuesday is what forced me to choose him,” Sparky told the New York Times, while defending Ellis’ outburst against him. “I think everybody has a right to say what he wants.”

In response to his outburst, Ellis received a number of angry letters from fans, who criticized him for being so presumptuous about Anderson. Ellis also received at least one positive letter—which came from the major leagues’ first African-American player of the 20th century. “I don’t mind those [negative] letters,” Ellis told The Sporting News, “but there was one letter I was particularly pleased with. Jackie Robinson wrote me a letter of encouragement. I met him last April in New York, and then I received this letter from him.”

On Tuesday, July 13, just hours before the start of the All-Star Game, Ellis offered no apologies for his recent remarks doubting the possibility of African-American pitchers starting the national pastime’s showcase game. “When it comes to black players, baseball is backwards, everyone knows it,” Ellis told a reporter from the New York Times. “I’m sort of surprised that I am starting, but I don’t feel my statements had anything to do with it.” Ellis also seized the opportunity to complain about the lack of endorsements for black athletes, compared to the commercial opportunities given to white players. A reporter asked Ellis if he had received any endorsement offers in light of his brilliant pitching in the first half of the season. “Aw, man, c’mon,” Ellis said incredulously. “Come to me for endorsements?”

Later in the season, Ellis would complain that black players received less attention from the media and less promotion from the front office than white athletes of similar ability. Ellis brought up several examples from the Pirates’ own roster. “Bob Moose and I are the tightest,” Ellis told Phil Musick of Sport magazine, “but when he came up, he was a phenom. Richie Hebner, he was Mr. Pie Traynor. Why don’t they publicize black players like that?”

Throughout his life, Ellis had bristled at racist treatment. During his first spring training in 1964, Ellis said he had argued or fought with seven different teammates who had used ethnic slurs in conversing with him. Seven years later, such instances of face-to-face racism still bothered Ellis, but he had learned to use restraint. During the 1971 season, Ellis and a black friend visited a high school that had been affected by racial divisions. On the way to the school, a police officer called out to the two men, referring to them as “boys.” “That’s where I’ve changed,” Ellis told Sport Magazine. “Three years ago, I would’ve jumped on the cop’s chest. But all I did was to correct him.”

Ellis, who would eventually be featured on the cover of the August 21st issue of The Sporting News, had emerged as one of the National League’s most dominant pitchers—and one of its most intriguing personalities. While some black players shied away from public discourse of their own Afrocentric world views, Ellis reveled in such discussions. In an article in Sports Illustrated, Ellis explained the significance of his daughter’s Swahili name, Shangaleza Talwanga. Ellis, one of three black pitchers on the Pirates at the time, explained that it meant “everything black is beautiful.” In the Pirates’ clubhouse, Ellis enjoyed listening to loud music that he labeled “funky.” On the field, when preparing to take his at-bats during games he pitched, Ellis donned a fuzzy batting helmet, which he referred to as “velvetized.”

At times, though, Ellis’ behavior bordered on the bizarre. Two years later, in perhaps his most celebrated incident, Ellis would walk out onto the field before a game against the Cubs wearing a head full of hair curlers. “I think the big thing with him when he come out on Wrigley Field with the hair curlers,” recalls Richie Hebner, “is that when he did that, other than surprising a lot of people at Wrigley Field, it surprised a lot of guys on the Pirate team. When I saw it, I said, ‘What the hell is this?’ ” Commissioner Bowie Kuhn reportedly conveyed his unhappiness over the hair curler episode to Bill Virdon, who by now had succeeded Danny Murtaugh as the Pirates’ manager. Virdon, relaying the commissioner’s message, told Ellis to cease his practice of wearing the curlers on the field. “Look, Dock,” Virdon said, “I don’t care what you wear, but the front office doesn’t like it, the umpires don’t like it, and if you’re not careful, you’re going to get fined.”

Bob Robertson recalls his own involvement in the hair curler episode. “[The manager] comes to me and says, ‘Go out and ask Dock why he’s got those curlers in his hair?’ So I did. And I think, if I can remember correctly, Dock said, ‘That’s me. Those are my curls.’ And that was about it. So I went back and told [Virdon] and that was the end of that stuff.” Much to Virdon’s delight, Ellis would not wear the hair curlers on the field again.

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SHADOW GAMES: Baseball and Me

I went to a baseball game after my father’s funeral. I also went to one after finding out about my mother’s brain cancer.

It was selfish and heartless. I felt guilty before and embarrassed after, but for nine innings I felt only the game. That’s the way it’s always been between baseball and me.

It was my friend when I didn’t have any others. And it has always been there to talk or listen or simply to watch.

Baseball helps me forget and it makes me remember. That’s why it was exactly what I needed on the worst days of my life.

But there were no games when a doctor told me that I had cancer. The neighborhood was out of baseball on that cold November day. No one was playing at Franz Sigel Park or John Mullaly Park. And there wasn’t even a game of catch in Joyce Kilmer Park. The last game at the old Yankee Stadium was long gone and Opening Day at the new Yankee Stadium was long off.

So I went home and wished for one of those summer days when I was a kid and my mother would send me to the ballpark with a paper sack stuffed with her famous tuna-fish sandwiches. That was back when you could slip through a delivery gate with the beer kegs and watch batting practice. And it was always okay to come home late with a beat-up scorecard and popcorn stuck between your teeth.

The doctor told me that tomorrow’s surgery and chemotherapy treatment might keep me in the hospital for 10 days.

“At least it’s December,” I said. “There aren’t any ballgames to miss.”

And I will be ready to slip through a delivery gate with the beer kegs when the new Yankee Stadium opens. I’ll watch batting practice with one of my mother’s famous tuna-fish sandwiches and come home late with a beat-up scorecard and popcorn stuck between my teeth.

Cancer can’t change the way it will always be between baseball and me.

News of the Day – 12/22/08

Let’s get right to it:

  • The Post’s George King details Jays’ GM J.P. Ricciardi concerns over the marriage of Burnett and the Yanks:

“The big question is how he handles New York,” the Blue Jays’ GM said of the Little Rock native. “No one knows for sure. That’s the big test; how he handles that.”

“The first two years here (2006-07), he was a little nicked up,” Ricciardi said. “I think he was more scared than hurt. When he was healthy and right he was fine.”

“I saw a big change this past season compared to the first year,” Ricciardi said. “The first year he was trying to justify the contract (five years for $55 million). Last year it was like, ‘I have nothing to lose; it was either (Toronto) or opt out.’ He let it go.”

  • BP.com’s John Perrotto has some concerns for Sabathia in a Yankee uni:

While he is one of the best pitchers in the game, there certainly are reasons to think that he may not be cut out to pitch in New York. Sabathia has usually been awful during the postseason on baseball’s biggest stage, posting a 7.92 ERA in five starts and 25 innings. That’s not a significant sample size, but Sabathia has admitted to putting too much pressure on himself in October. His lone quality start came as a 21-year-old rookie with the Indians in the 2001 American League Division Series, when he allowed two runs in six innings to beat the 116-win Mariners. Sabathia had quality starts in 15 of his 17 outings for the Brewers last season after being acquired from the Indians in a July trade, but gave up five runs in 3 2/3 innings in losing to the Phillies in Game Two of the NLDS.

(Indians manager Eric) Wedge insists that Sabathia will be fine pitching in New York. “I think he’s going to be more than fine,” Wedge said. “Nobody puts more pressure on CC than CC. I know some people scoff at that because New York is different, but because of everything CC has been through, and because of the adjustments he’s made—mentally, physically, fundamentally, and just the leadership ability he has, the strength he has as a human being, just what he takes care of both on and off the field—he’s going to be fine. He has perspective. He has a tremendous belief system in himself and the process. …”

  • Kevin Kernan of the Post insists that the Yanks must go after Teixeira:

The Yankees have their opening. Face it, they are not going to commit nearly a quarter of a billion dollars to two pitchers and not try to upgrade their offense. Remember, this is a team that had trouble scoring runs last year….

Adding Teixeira would help in so many ways. His on-base percentage was .410. Alex Rodriguez led the Yankees with a .392 mark. Teixeira hit 33 home runs. His presence in the lineup would make A-Rod that much more valuable. This is no different than having David Ortiz and Ramirez. Ortiz has not been the same without Manny.

[My take: While I agree that Tex would do wonders for the Yanks lineup, I wouldn’t say “Ortiz has not been the same without Manny”.  First of all, its a small sample size alert.  Youkilis and Pedroia replaced Manny in the clean-up spot, and they obviously didn’t stink up the joint.  Jason Bay hit .293/.370/.527 with 9 HR and 37 RBIs after coming over to Boston.  After Manny was traded, Ortiz hit .262/.381/.519 with 9 HRs and 42 RBIs in 49 games, despite a cranky wrist.]

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver