Well, here we are again. One year later and the Yanks are in the post-season once more. Before the game starts, I just want to express how grateful I am that our team is back in the playoffs. It’s something that’s simply not to be taken for granted, cause it ain’t going to last forever. Moreover, I want to let you guys know how much Cliff and I appreciate the fact that you keep coming back to chill at the Banter. You make blogging a true pleasure.

As per usual, Cliff did a bang-up job of previewing the series this morning. Here is what Jay Jaffe thinks (Oh, and while you are at it,dig this piece on Alex Rodriguez by Steven Goldman).

I think that Sabathia is going to overwhelm the Yanks tonight. I hope I’m wrong, of course. It’s on our boy Chien-Ming to match Cleveland’s big fella. I know he can, but will he? Will the Yanks’ left-handed hitters be able to do anything against CC? Will the Yankees’ fielding hold-up for Wang?

I’ll feel good about the Bombers’ chances so long as they can take one of two games in Cleveland, won’t you?

Yo, I’m amped for the game. I’ll be blogging the entire series over at SI.com (just as Cliff is blogging the Phillies-Rockies series). While you are making the rounds, sure to check for Emma’s blog over at Newsday.

Now, damn the torpedos, full speed ahead.

Let’s Go Yan-Kees!

The position-by-position comparison is a tired old trope, but it’s fun as hell, and it’s actually a decent way to compare two teams. Or it almost is. Rather than compare two teams by position on the field, I prefer to compare them by position in the lineup. This corrects for teams that have, for example, power-hitting shortstops that hit in the middle of the order and banjo hitting first basemen who hit at the bottom. Rather than compare the apples and oranges of, say Alex Rodriguez and Casey Blake, I’ll compare Rodriguez to the Indians cleanup hitter and Blake to Doug Mientkiewicz. I reserve the right to fudge the lineups just a smidge to produce better comparisons, though in this case I only need to swap Hideki Matsui back up to the fifth spot, where he hit often enough this year anyway. Also included below are comparisons of the pitching staffs. The Yankee lineup (save for the flop of Matsui and Posada in the order) and roster below reflect those announced by the team. The Indians have yet to announce their roster, so the below is my best guess.

This one is closer than the stats might have you believe. Johnny Damon struggled through the first half of the season with a variety of injuries, compounding his problems by resisting (and ultimately avoiding) his first ever trip to the disabled list. Looking like a very old 33, Damon lost the center field job to Melky Carbrera by June 1, and by July 20, he was hitting just .234/.338/.322. It was then that Joe Torre finally decided that starting Damon at DH wasn’t sufficient, that he needed full days off as well. Damon did not start the first game of the Yankees’ double-header against the Devil Rays on July 21 and, almost as if the lack of rest was wearing him down mentally as well as physically, Damon flipped the switch in the nightcap and hit .319/.369/.493 over the remainder of the season. Looking at his monthly splits, Damon has improved every month since June as he’s slowly healed up from his rough first half. I’ll still give the edge to Sizemore, who, at 24, is still making improvements in his game that are not health related (he drew nearly twice as many walks this year as he did in his rookie season in 2005, and is no longer a liability against lefty pitching), but with Damon back at full strength and performing like he in his first year as a Yankee, it’s very close, especially when you consider that, despite Damon’s early struggles, Sizemore struck out nearly twice as many times as Johnny this season.

This one is the mismatch the last appeared to be on first glance. Cabrerra didn’t become the Tribe’s starting second sacker until mid-August, when the team finally realized that they could no longer both fight for the division and wait for offseason acquisition Josh Barfield to break out. Cabrera, who was acquired from the Mariners last June for Eduardo Perez, spent most of the 2007 season playing shortstop for double-A Akron while posting a hitting line not unlike Jeter’s above. Of course that was at double-A, and Cabrera had never hit like that before in his life save for a short stint at A-ball in 2005. Nonetheless, the Indians figured anything was worth a try, and were pleasantly surprised when the 21-year-old Venezuelan thrived at second base, hitting .308/.361/.477 over his first month in the big leagues. He cooled off over the final two weeks, of course, so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll perform in the postseason with just 159 major league at-bats under his belt, but it’s safe to say he’s unlikely to out-perform Jeter. The Yankee captain was hobbled in the second-half of the season, suffering from a nagging knee injury that sapped his power, but he rallied in September to hit .311/.363/.495 and finished the season with a 15-game hitting streak during which he hit .386/.397/.653. What’s more, Jeter’s poor success rate on the bases was largely a first-half phenomenon. Jeter was a mere 7 for 14 on the bases in the first half, but stole 8 of 9 successfully in the second half. Perhaps his sore knee forced him to steal with smarts rather than with speed.

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In any other year, the Yankees would be starting their Division Series with the inappropriately-logoed team from Cleveland today, or even yesterday. But by virtue of MLB’s insane methodology to let TV further dictate start dates under the guise of giving the team with the best league record "an advantage," we must wait until Thursday.

But we won’t have to wait too long. With early starts to all the games in the Yankees-Indians series — Games 1 and 2 start at 6:30 and 5 p.m., respectively, Sunday’s Game 3 start is scheduled for 6:30, Game 4 is next Monday at 6 and Game 5 next Wednesday at 5 — we have at least a week before we see the annual "playoff games should start earlier so kids on the East Coast can stay up to watch it" column from Post Sports TV critic Phil Mushnick. I’m looking forward to that one, because he always cuts through the B.S., and provides me with a good laugh.

At any rate, since we do have some extra time, let’s quickly reflect on the 2007 regular season coverage and look ahead to the playoffs. Feel free to agree or disagree with your comments below.

Disclaimer: The opinions presented are not reflective of the proprietors of Baseball Toaster or my esteemed colleagues here at Bronx Banter, who allow me to put my warped thoughts in this space.

MOST THOROUGH NEWSPAPER COVERAGE
• NY Daily News. No paper sends more writers to more places, and gets as many different angles. The Times may break more stories and have more words to work with, but the Daily News fills space and gets straight to the point.

BEST NEWSPAPER BLOG/BLOGGER
• LoHud, Peter Abraham. He understands the in-game blog function and doesn’t try to be something he’s not. The NY Times’ "Bats" item, with Tyler Kepner, Ben Shpigel, Jack Curry et al, is a close second.

BEST BEAT WRITER
• Tie between Tyler Kepner (NY Times) and George King (NY Post). I would likely choose these two even if I had not seen them in action and know how they go about their business. One is a by-the-book, work the phones guy who looks for angles and stories where others may not; the other is a clubhouse schmoozer who has sources pretty much everywhere. They are both extremely effective reporters in their way, and good writers. I have a tremendous amount of respect for all the beat guys, because it’s a thankless grind of a gig, but Kepner and King consistently churn out high-quality work.

Honorable mention: Dom Amore, Hartford Courant. A veteran beat man who’s witnessed plenty of Yankee history. I’m continually amazed at the accuracy of his quotes, given that he barely jots down notes or uses a recorder. His brain capacity is incredible. I’ve seen him in action. It’s uncanny; because many of us aren’t directly exposed to him due to his Hartford base, he doesn’t get the credit he deserves.

BEST COLUMNIST
• Bob Klapisch — The Record/ESPN.com. I chose Klapisch over Joel Sherman for the following reason: Klapisch, who pitched at Columbia and still plays some semipro ball, thinks like a player and brings a knowledge of the game that pierces his stories.

BEST YANKEECENTRIC BLOG
• Being wholly unbiased, Bronx Banter. Although I must say, now that I’ve had a chance to read more of the blogs listed on the right side of the screen, there’s a lot of strong information outside the mainstream, which has restored my faith in the intelligence of Yankee fans. After five years of eyeing and moderating the YES boards, reading your comments here and viewing the other communities has been educational.

BEST YANKEES BLOGGER • There are many talented Yankee wordsmiths. For consistency in tone, fairness, humor, etc., Steven Goldman is the best.

BEST YANKEES TV COMBINATION
• Tie between the following: Kay, Singleton, Flaherty Kay, Girardi, Leiter

We saw it at the tail end of last year; there’s no way to replace Jim Kaat. With so many permutations of people to match with primary play-by-play men Michael Kay and Kenny Singleton, YES’s two-man setup suffered a bit because Kaat transitioned so well between the analyst role with Kay and the dual role with Singleton.

With that said, I was very impressed with some of the three-man arrangements, particularly the ones noted above. If Joe Girardi doesn’t take a managerial job next year, I look for his workload in the booth to increase to 75 games or so. Same with John Flaherty.

Flaherty and Girardi prove one of the unwritten rules of baseball coverage: if you want to gain information on the team and learn more about game strategy or what makes opposing players tick, the backup catcher is the best resource.

BEST YANKEES STUDIO ANALYST
• David Justice. He’s fair, he’s complete, and he’s honest in his assessment.

Now to the general on-field stories…

STORY OF THE YEAR I
• Alex Rodriguez. If his batting average was 50 points higher, we’d be talking Triple Crown. Easily one of the top five composite offensive seasons ever by a Yankees right-handed batter, what’s interesting about his performance was how all the tabloid stories stopped once he decided to shut up, say "F— it" and focus on baseball.

STORY OF THE YEAR II
• Joba Chamberlain and the cult following he’s gained. A couple of weeks ago, Times columnist Harvey Araton echoed sentiments presented in this space by this author — make Joba the Shut (down reliever) Mariano Rivera’s heir apparent. He’s got a ringing endorsement from another hallowed Yankees stopper: Goose Gossage.

BIGGEST SURPRISE
• Andy Pettitte. Not that he won 14 games, but if the bullpen came through for him in the first six weeks of the season, he might have had a shot at 20.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
• 3-way tie between Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, and any reliever not named Joba Chamberlain (yes, that includes Mariano Rivera). I don’t know about you, but I’m surprised the criticism of the aforementioned players wasn’t more pronounced. Winning has a way of masking cynicism among the scribes.

WEIRDEST MEDIA-RELATED DRAMA
• Joe Torre boycotting the Daily News writers in Boston following the publication of the bonehead headline "Torre to A-Rod: Shut Up." I’ve seen Torre verbally pants writers without raising his voice when asked a question that he considered to have crossed the line of professionalism. This, however, was undeserved, since the actual reports have no control over the headlines associated with their stories.

STAT THAT RAISED MY EYEBROWS
• Of all the ridiculous offensive numbers and ZIP code level ERAs posted by the pitching staff at various points of the year, Bob Abreu’s 123 runs scored stood out as the quietest, most unassuming gaudy number among the starting nine. Through all the derision and prolonged slumps he endured, I was stunned to find that Abreu’s run total was second in the AL only to A-Rod’s absurd 143.

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To review, I thought the composite coverage during the regular season was solid. There are always going to be some kinks, but over the course of an eight-month grind, mistakes will be made and quotes, columns and stories will be misinterpreted.

We’re all wondering whether guys like A-Rod, Abreu, Clemens and Mussina will raise their games against the Indians. (The "pressure’s on A-Rod" stories were published in full force Tuesday, and Mike Greenberg issued a "cut him some slack" missive on Wednesday’s ESPN Radio show.) I’ve found that the writers are at their best in the postseason also. Do you agree? Do Playoff Pullout sections of the local papers enhance coverage or is it a bit gluttonous? Overall, what improvements do you think should be made from the mainstream coverage? If you were on the beat or were being paid to lend your opinion to the postseason Yankees coverage, how would you make your coverage stand out in the various media platforms, given the various constraints that may be placed upon you by your employer? How would you juggle staying at a press conference to get a quote with going to the clubhouse to get something that may be more useful? These are all considerations that must be made on the fly, as the entire coverage process becomes more standardized and teams relinquish control of information flow and player availability to MLB.

Next week … a review of TBS’s TV coverage and YES’s pre and postgames.

Is everyone sick of the Alex Rodriguez playoff storyline yet? I know many people are, but it’ll be hard to avoid until Rodriguez has that one or two big offensive games for the Yanks. In the meantime, Pete Abe has some interesting audio from Rodriguez, and Howard Bryant has a nice, long piece on the potential King of New York. I like this quote from Kevin Millar:

“When is he just going to say, ‘I’m the baddest [dude] out there?’ ” Orioles first baseman Kevin Millar says. ” ‘I hit .320 with 40 and 130 RBIs, every [stupid] year, and what about it?’ What is anyone going to say to that? Nobody can challenge him in this game because nobody else is that good. He spent a lot of time trying to be liked. I just want him to say, ‘Don’t [mess] with me, because none of you [guys] can do what I do.’ That’s all he has to do, ’cause he’s a straight-up gangster.”

…All you heard was Papa don’t hit me no more!

Man, it feels strange having to wait another couple of days for the Yankees playoff season to start, doesn’t it? I’m already getting hyped-up and there’s a long time to go before first pitch, Thursday night. (Wonder how Alex Rodriguez feels? No pressure, big dog.) Meanwhile, the Yanks are “hopeful” that Roger Clemens will start Game 3.

We’ve got time to kibbitz. What do you make of the non-prime time schedule? What about Shelley Duncanstein possibly getting the Game One nod over Hideki Matsui? Yo peoples, whatta ya hear, whatta ya say?

With Jorge Posada playing manager, the Yankees wrapped up their season with a 10-4 win over the Orioles, taking 2 of 3 in Baltimore and finishing the year with 94 wins and a wild card berth to the playoffs.

The game was a light-hearted affair, with Bobby Abreu getting his 100th RBI (he got two to finish at 101), Joba Chamberlain facing one batter (a groundout to end the seventh), and getting the starters out of the game before anyone got hurt being the primary concerns. All were accomplished in good order.

Sean Henn started and turned in three solid innings allowing just a Kevin Millar home run. Chase Wright followed with two frames and picked up the win. Ross Ohlendorf pitched the sixth and the seventh prior to Joba’s appearance, giving up a run on two hits and a walk and striking out one. Chris Britton pitched a perfect eighth. Kyle Farnsworth allowed a two-out homer to J.R. House in the ninth in a four-batter inning. I’ll take a solo homer with a seven run lead over a walk in the same situation any day. There was a moment of concern when Farnsworth knelt down after delivering a pitch having felt a twinge in his hip, but he turned out to be fine and finished the inning.

On offense, of the 12 Yankees who came to the plate, only Alberto Gonzalez failed to reach base. Wilson Betemit had a good day (2 for 5 with a double and 3 RBIs), which was important. Bronson Sardinha, who could make the postseason roster as a pinch-runner, singled and walked in two trips while playing third base in relief of Alex Rodriguez (Sardinha was drafted as a shortstop and was moved to third before finally settling in the outfield, where he has played all three positions, but most often right field). Rodriguez himself went 2 for 2 with a walk and an RBI to push his final line to .314-54-156. Doug Mientkiewicz went 2 for 4 with a double and a walk to keep his hot streak going. Jose Molina went 3 for 5.

The real action of the day, of course, took place in Queens, Philly, Milwaukee, and Denver.

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Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon all had the night off, but that didn’t stop the Yankees from out-sluggin the Orioles, 11-10. Andy Pettitte was clobbered–he allowed eight earned runs over five inning–but still got the win.

Kei Igawa gets the start today. The regular season began with Carl Pavano and is closing with Igawa (there’s a joke in there somewhere).

Rodriguez is in the line-up today, gunning for homer #55 and RBI #156. I like the sound of a double-nickel, don’t you? Posada will serve as manager, Mike Mussina will be the pitching coach.

I watched most of the game last night but count me as almost completely distracted by the happenings in the NL East. We’ve got more than enough time to talk about the Tribe in the coming days. Today gives dying time for the Phils or Mets, unless it doesn’t and they are forced to play a playoff game tomorrow. Aw, man, imagine if it comes to that? On Friday, the Mets played scared and yesterday it looked as if the Phils were ascared. How will it all end? I’m just glad I don’t have a direct emotional investment. I’d be ready to throw-up if I rooted for either team right about now.

It’s absolutely gorgeous in New York today. Slightly overcast but still sunny, cool and crisp. A great day for playoff baseball. I still say the Mets win the division–the Phillies will find a way to lose, right?–but ya never know.

Let’s Go Base-Ball!

When playing out the string on the way to the playoffs, the last thing you want is to have a hapless team rally from a multi-run deficit against your closer to force extra innings, then go on to win. You want to coast in. Lose a low scoring game because you’re resting your big bats. Lose a high scoring game because you gave a spot start to a rookie or a retread. Lose a blowout for both reasons, but you don’t want to go extra innings, and you never want to see your closer melt down against a 90-loss team.

The game was never pretty last night. Neither starter pitched well and the Yankees, who had leads of 4-1 and 7-2, were clinging to a slim 7-6 lead after five, all of those runs being charged to Jon Leicester and Mike Mussina, respectively. The Yanks padded their lead to 9-6 against Victor Zambrano and Rob Bell while getting a scoreless inning of relief each from Ross Ohlendorf, Kyle Farnsworth, and Luis Vizcaino.

Then came the bottom of the ninth. With the crowd at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox had defeated the Twins 5-2 behind an outstanding outing by Daisuke Matsuzaka, watching on the scoreboard, Mariano Rivera took the mound with a three-run lead.

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Look, the Yanks have clinched. The O’s have given up. There’s no point to breaking down a terrible team that I’ve already analyzed five times this season, and that the Yankees just played last week. The O’s roster hasn’t changed since last week. There’s nothing to see here.

That said, the division is still in play. If the Yanks sweep and the Red Sox, who lost to the Twins last night, only win one of their remaining three against Minnesota, the Yanks will win the East via the tiebreaker of having won the season series against Boston. That said, neither team is going to fight for it. The Yanks are going to rest their regulars (though Melky’s the only regular who will rest tonight), continue the bullpen tryouts, limit Andy Pettitte to 60 pitches tomorrow, and go with a spot-starter in the season finale on Sunday.

Tonight they’ll let Mike Mussina throw his usual 100-or-so pitches. In three starts since returning to the rotation, Moose has gone 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and has not allowed a home run. Two starts ago he faced the O’s in the Bronx and turned in his best start of the year. Sure, he’s faced Baltimore once and the depleted Toronto lineup twice, but the prospect of Mussina as the fourth playoff starter (or even the third if Clemens can’t answer the bell) is not as scary as it was just a few weeks ago.

The O’s send Jon Leicester, who has alternated good and bad starts since joining the rotation at the beginning of the month. The Yanks caught him two starts ago and rocked him for six runs in four innings. Tonight would be bad-start night for Leicester if he continues the pattern.

Offense: Twenty-one runs in three games, and it might have been more if they hadn’t clinched in the middle game allowing Joe Torre to rest Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, and Jorge Posada in the finale.

Studs:

Johnny Damon 10 for 15, 2 2B, RBI, 4 R, 3 SB, 2 K
Derek Jeter 5 for 10, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 3 K
Robinson Cano 6 for 13, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 2 R, BB, 3 K, GIDP, CS
Doug Mientkiewicz 4 for 7, 2 2B, RBI, R, BB, 2 K
Jorge Posada 4 for 10, 2B, 3 RBI, R, GIDP

Duds:

Melky Cabrera 0 for 8, RBI, BB, 3 K, GIDP
Hideki Matsui 0 for 7, 2 BB, 3 K
Wilson Betemit 0 for 5, 3 K
Jason Giambi 1 for 6, 3 K
Bobby Abreu 1 for 8, RBI, 4 R, 3 BB

Bronson Sardinha and Alberto Gonzalez both picked up their first major league hits, both singles, in the finale, which also saw them make their first major league starts (in right field and short stop respectively). Sardinha’s came in his first at-bat, but he went 0 for 2 the rest of the night and saw just eight pitches in his three trips. Gonzalez singled in his second at-bat and was plated by a Johnny Damon double. His last time up he walked and was promptly caught stealing.

Rotation: Even with Kei Igawa subbing for Roger Clemens and his hamstring, the three starters did great, allowing just three runs in 18 innings combined. Igawa pitched around five walks and a pair of singles for five scoreless frames. Chien-Ming Wang wasn’t at his best, but he struck out six in six innings while allowing just two runs. Finally, Phil Hughes had his best start since out-dueling Fausto Carmona in Cleveland in early August, allowing just one run on the requisite Carlos Peña home run (one of Wang’s two runs allowed was also a Peña homer) over seven strong, allowing just seven baserunners (Peña, three singles, two walks, and a hit-batsman). Of course, the Yankees are still hoping Roger Clemens can start the third game of the ALDS, so his absence from this series is of significant concern. Meanwhile, the only man here who is likely to start in the postseason is Wang, who was good, but not great.

Bullpen: Joe Torre’s postseason auditions led directly to a loss in the opener. That’s not a cause for concern, however, as the Yankees didn’t need to win that game, and the whole point was to figure out who could be trusted in October. Here are the results:

The Good:

Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain, of course. Mo picked up a ten-pitch save in the clincher. Joba pitched on back-to-back days for the first time in his life and turned in a pair of scoreless innings striking out three. That said, he got help from a ridiculous wall-crashing catch in center by Melky Cabrera in his first game, which he followed by giving up a single to rookie Justin Ruggiano and uncorking a wild pitch, and gave up a double to Raul Casanova in his second. True, that shot to center was off the bat of that man Carlos Peña, but ace relievers have to get everyone out. That said, Joba lowered his ERA to 0.38, so who am I kidding? Jose Veras pitched two shutout innings, working around a single and getting three ground ball outs to earn the save in the finale. Kyle Farnsworth, working from the windup, pitched a perfect eighth in the opener, striking out two and throwing ten of 13 pitches for strikes. Ron Villone got Peña to groundout to stop the bleeding in the sixth inning of the opener, then retired two of three batters in the seventh also on groundouts (the other walked). Chris Britton struck out Jonny Gomes to end that inning.

The Bad:

Edwar Ramirez and Brian Bruney each faced four men in the sixth inning of the oppener. Six of the eight scored. Staked to a 5-0 lead, Edwar walked the leadoff man, gave up a one-out double to plate that walk, then issued another walk. On came Bruney, who walked his first man to load the bases, struck out the next, then walked a run in and gave up a grand slam to 32-year-old minor league journeyman Jorge Velandia. It was Velandia’s first major league home run. Jeff Karstens gave up a game-winning home run to the only batter he faced in the tenth inning of that game. Luis Vizcaino gave up a double and a home run to the first two batters he faced in the eighth inning of the middle game, then gave up two more singles before finally getting out of the inning.

Conclusion: Farnsworth, Villone, and Veras look to be on their way to the postseason. Edwar, whom Torre said had a spot on the postseason roster, may have pitched his way off of it. That makes Vizcaino’s 11.57 ERA in September even more troubling. Torre’s doing the right thing in resting his regulars (Melky sat last night as well) and getting more at-bats for Giambi, Duncan, and Betemit. The rotation is what it is. Moose will start tonight. Pettitte will go tomorrow, but with a limit of 50 to 60 pitches. If the Yankees’ ALDS series opens on Wednesday, that would mean Pettitte would be on three days rest, but coming off a short outing, suggesting Wang as the Game One starter. If they wind up in the series that opens on Thursday, Pettitte would be on regular rest while Wang would have had seven days off. The biggest concerns heading into the post season, however, are Vizcaino and Clemens, and we’re unlikely to learn much about them from the season-ending three-game set that opens tonight in Baltimore.

Scott Kazmir was good last night, but Phil Hughes was better. Joba Chamberlain pitched the eighth–including an emphatic strikout of BJ Upton–and Jose Veras earned the save as the Yankees won their 92nd game of the year, 3-1. It is looking more and more like the Yanks will face the Indians in the first round of the playoffs. You can throw the Yankees 6-0 record vs the Tribe out of the window–the Bombers only faced Fausto Carmona once this year, and didn’t see C.C. at all. But heck, the American League playoff teams–“the fantastic four,” as Brian Cashman called them the other night–are all tough. If the Yanks are to be champs, they’ve got to beat the best, ’nuff said.

Anyhow, I didn’t watch much of the game at all. I watched the Mets instead. Man, can you believe what is happening out in Queens? I have to say that I don’t derive a lot pleasure from watching a team fall apart like the Mets have over the past couple of days and weeks. I’m no fan of the Metropolitans, but I’ve got a lot of close friends who are. So while I don’t root for them to win, dude, I just can’t get into wanting them to lose like this. Think of the winter-long hangover they’d have to live with. Nah, that’s too much to wish on anyone other than a Red Sox fan.

Still, it ain’t over yet. So here’s the question of the day, if you don’t mind me shifting the conversation to the National League for a minute. Who will suck more (or less) this weekend: The Mets or the Phillies? The Mets are playing scared right now, though they said put up a brave front after the game, while the Phils are streaking. But these are the Phillies we’re talking about. If history tells us anything, it will be Philadelphia who folds. So if I had to take a pick, I’d say the Mets recover and make the playoffs, despite how awful they’ve looked this week.

But I’m rooting for a tie and a one-game playoff on Monday.

Some quick hits as we prep for the home stretch and hope like hell the Yankees don’t have to deal with Vlad Guerrero, Chone Figgins, Garret Anderson, Howie Kendrick and Orlando Cabrera, at least not yet:

• The Yankees will be making their 13^th straight October appearance. Never mind that they’d have clinched earlier had Joe Torre not mismanaged the bullpen Tuesday night at the Trop (more on that below.)

(It’d be 14 straight had it not been for the ’94 Strike, and Donnie Baseball would have a World Series ring following a five-game dispatch of the Expos. Tony Gwynn would have hit .400, too, but now I’m in Tangentville.)

For all the Yankee haters who relished at the thought of a regular-season failure, and Met fans who currently have no comeback for the line, “Well, at least we know we’re playing in October,” let’s reminisce, shall we? July 2007: 1050 ESPN Radio jock Don LaGreca’s sardonic soliloquy to fans on the last weekend of play before the All-Star break, where he said the Yankees would be interesting and would win games but it wouldn’t be enough. They had too many games to make up. Too many teams to hurdle. I’ll admit, the rant was pretty funny. Anyone else want to join me in submitting recipes for crow?

If any of you reading this happened to tune in to that particular segment of the Saturday show, what made LaGreca’s bit even funnier were the “Ta-dow, how you like me now?” calls from Met fans thinking their team had finally assumed the spotlight. Nope. This is still a Yankees town.

That fact is evident in the way the breadth of coverage the teams have shared lately (except in Newsday, where Mets stories have outnumbered Yankees stories due to a heavy Mets fan base on Long Island). The presentation has been mostly doom-and-gloom for the Queens franchise that borrowed elements from the three previously existing New York baseball teams so it’ll forever have an identity crisis. (It’s never good when the New York Times dedicates includes the Mets’ current nosedive in a special Metro Section bulletin featuring “Greatest New York Collapses.”) Yankees depictions have been mixed, depending on game results. I’ve found for the most part that the articles have reflected the mood of the players who made the news.

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I realized tonight: it’s a little strange that I have, literally, dozens of happy memories associated with watching a 60-something year old man weep openly on national television. That man, of course, is Joe Torre, and the occasion tonight was the Yankees’ 12-4 win and newly clinched playoff spot – in a year where, as you may have heard, they were at one point just a teensy bit back in the standings. You may hate Joe Torre’s managing style, you may think he should be fired at the end of the season, but it’s still hard to be unmoved by such a great example of a classic American type: the crusty, tough old outer-borough New Yorker with a sentimental streak a mile wide. Nobody in sports cries like Joe Torre.

Under the circumstances, you couldn’t ask for a much better hand of cards than Chien-Ming Wang vs. J.P. Howell at the Trop. In the days since they’ve dropped the “Devil” from their logo and uniforms, the Rays have attracted an enormous and enthusiastic crowd of devoted Christian fans, who — … okay, not really. The place was maybe half full, and by the sound of it, the crowd was at least 80% pro-Yankee.

Wang wasn’t at his best tonight, and struggled a bit with his control, but he kept the damage to a minimum. Despite allowing seven hits and three walks in six innings, he only allowed two runs. Meanwhile, the Yankees couldn’t do much against Howell their first time through the order (if they lost I was going to say the offense was a “Howelling abyss”, so be grateful they pulled this one out), but in the fourth inning they took a 2-1 lead on a Jeter solo shot and an error, walk, and series of groundouts. In the fifth, Howell lost it completely, and his bullpen relief didn’t do much better: the Yankees batted around and scored seven runs, with the big blows a bases-loaded Jorge Posada single, and Robinson Cano’s subsequent three-run home run.

For all intents and purposes the game was over, though New York did tack on three more in the next inning against Jeff Ridgway, proud owner of a 189.00 ERA. (But did I mention that they’ve removed the “Devil” from their uniforms? Come on down!). I don’t think anyone was paying much attention to the last four innings, including, judging by their defense, the Rays. And Jorge Posada was apparently so surprised to see Jay Witasick still alive and pitching in the majors that he did a violent double-take, and appeared to tweak his neck (that’s my theory, anyway), but stayed in the game. Joba Chamberlain got through a scoreless inning with help from an excellent Melky Cabrera catch; Jose Vizcaino ran into trouble in the eighth and gave up two runs; Mariano Rivera came on for the ninth, not because he was needed, but because Torre wanted his stalwarts in the game when they clinched.

Which they did, finally, when Greg Norton popped out to Robinson Cano. Torre, as he has so many times before under similar circumstances, had already begun to tear up when the ball hit the mitt. It was a relatively subdued celebration on the mound – lots of smiles and warm hugs, a little jumping around, but not too much craziness. That didn’t last once the team reached the clubhouse, however: most of the bullpen ganged up on Roger Clemens, who was at the receiving end of at least five spraying bottles at once, and was so blinded Jorge Posada had to lead him to safety. Mariano Rivera got it just as bad. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, stayed mostly dry – “I know where to hide,” he explained later, when it was safe (I don’t think Jeter really starts celebrating until the ALCS).

A sopping wet Joba Chamberlain was asked by Kim Jones if he even feels nervous on the mound anymore: “I play it off pretty good, don’t I?” he asked with a grin. "With the playoffs coming we’ve got a chance to do some special things and THAT’S REALLY COLD,” he added, as Edwar Ramirez doused him in beer. (You’ve gotta love the part of the celebration where they run out of champagne and just switch to Bud). Later, a tag team of Ramirez, Cano and Chamberlain succeeded in completely and utterly distracting Abreu from his YES interview, leaving him laughing helplessly in the middle of a lost thought, as Ramirez gently toweled him off.

The emotional highlight, though, was as always Joe Torre. He was already looking dangerously sniffly when the interview began; when Cano and Cabrera dumped two entire bottles of champagne on his head, he choked up. “You love them,” he said. “I mean, I can’t help it.” When Kim Jones told him the vets had been praising his leadership and resilience, the real waterworks began.

Torre’s status for next year is up in the air, and if the Yankees go down in the Division Series again, this could very well be his last emotional, booze-soaked moment of triumph with the Yankees. He took a lot of criticism this year, some of it very valid, but there’s no doubt he’ll be missed when he’s gone; maybe he can manage a bullpen better or maybe not, but will Joe Girardi ever be as moved by a couple of giddy kids bouncing around with champagne?

The Yanks have only one more team left to eliminate in order to clinch the Wild Card. If the Yanks win, or the Tigers lose, they’re in. Chien-Ming Wang takes the hill, looking for more support than he got last time out, when Roy Halliday shut down the Yanks, wasting a strong outing by Wang. Jay Ken Thurston J.P. (as in James Phillip) Howell takes the mound to try to stop them. Howell went 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA in eight starts in June and July. He’s made one start since being recalled with expanded rosters, turning in a strong outing in Anaheim (6 IP, 2 R, 8 K), but took a hard luck loss as the Rays only managed one run against Ervin Santana and company.

Shelley Duncan gets the call at DH as Matsui gets a rest. Duncan hits seventh, pushing Cano and Posada up. The rest is the usual.

Cliff and I both contributed chapters to the new BP book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book. Tonight, I’ll be up at Columbia U with some of the authors, including Steven Goldman, Jay Jaffe, Kevin Baker and Allen Barra. The chat starts at 7:00 at Alfred Lerner Hall (lower level), 2922 Broadway. If you are around the neighborhood, swing by, it’d be great to see you. In the meantime, dig this chapter from the book, written expertly by Goldman. I think you will really enjoy it.

Book Excerpt

How to Break Up the Yankees

BY STEVEN GOLDMAN

From the mid-1930s through the mid-1960s, baseball struggled with how to “break up the Yankees,” at one point even adopting a rule forbidding teams from trading with the previous year’s pennant winner—which was always the Yankees. The rule lasted but one winter, that of 1939 to 1940. New York didn’t win in 1940, Detroit did. The rule hadn’t been intended to harm the Tigers, so it was quickly rescinded.

The no-trade rule had little chance of hurting the Yankees anyway, because so much of their talent was homegrown. When Branch Rickey’s farm system began transforming the way major league talent was developed, Yankees general manager Ed Barrow, something of a reactionary, had been resistant to the new methods. In 1932, team owner Jacob Ruppert overruled him, buying the Newark Bears of the International League and hiring independent minor league operator George Weiss to build a complete farm system. An injection of New York revenues turned Rickey’s farm into a factory. Of the key players on the champion 1939 Yankees, none of the position players were acquired via trade, and just a handful of the pitchers were acquired this way.

The factory system fed the Yankees dynasty, which was only occasionally interrupted between 1936 and 1964. Not until 1965, with the advent of the amateur draft and with ownership’s cutbacks in player development on the eve of selling out to CBS (the Yankees had never been generous with bonuses anyway), did the factory shut down. The Yankees stopped producing young players, and shortly thereafter, the team stopped winning.

Over the more than 40 years since, the Yankees have resisted getting back in the habit of producing youngsters. During its brief ownership, CBS didn’t know how. George Steinbrenner, who bought the team from the Tiffany Network, didn’t care to. For all Steinbrenner’s financial largesse, the posture damaged the club almost from the first moment of the regime. The first test was offered by Otto Velez in 1974. The club failed it and, as a direct result, lost the division title to the Baltimore Orioles.

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The Indians beat the Mariners 4-3 in 12 innings last night, eliminating Seattle from the playoffs. That was as close as the Yankees would get to a clincher, however, as the Tigers stomped the Twins 8-0 and the Yanks lost another extra inning contest.

Kei Igawa pitched as well as could have been reasonably expected, holding the Devil Rays scoreless over five innings. It wasn’t pretty, Igawa walked five and had to get out of a second-and-third one-out jam in the first (he did so by striking out B.J. Upton and Delmon Young, Kei’s only two Ks of the night), and two-out bases loaded jam in the third, but he only allowed two hits, both singles.

The Yanks got on the board right away against Jason Hammel with a Johnny Damon single, stolen base, and a Derek Jeter double. Alex Rodriguez then padded the lead with a grand slam in the third, which pushed him past 150 RBIs on the season. Edwar Ramirez and Brian Bruney gave it all back plus one in the sixth, however, as Ramirez walked Upton, gave up an RBI double to Dioner Navarro, then walked Jonny Gomes. Bruney then entered with one out, walked Greg Norton to load the bases, and struck out Josh Wilson on three pitches. With two out and the bags packed with the tying runs, Bruney walked Akinori Iwamura on five pitches to push the second Tampa run across, then gave up a batting practice grand slam to that man I warned you all about, 32-year-old minor league lifer Jorge Velandia. Velandia, who is on his seventh cup of coffee, had never hit a home run in the major leagues before.

Ron Villone and Chris Britton held things down from there as the Yankees plated a leadoff double by Jorge Posada in the eighth to tie the game at 6-6. Then Joe Torre started a parade of scary relievers. Kyle Farnsworth, working from the windup for the second straight appearance, aced the eighth. Jose Veras, showing a nifty curve, pitched around a walk in the ninth. Jeff Karstens . . . not so much. Karstens first two pitches to tenth-inning leadoff hitter Dioner Navarro were balls. The third was a meatball. Home run to right. Rays win 7-6.

The Yankees dropped two of three to the Devil Rays at the beginning of the month, but the Rays had won six of seven coming into that series and went on to win five of their next seven after leaving the Bronx. In other words, the Rays were hot. Entering this penultimate series of the season, the Rays have won just three of their last twelve. They’re also playing without Carl Crawford, who hasn’t played in two weeks due to some muscle strains in his legs, and James Sheilds, who would have started tomorrow, but won’t because he’s reached his innings limit for the season (he’s thrown 215 innings this year after throwing 185 2/3 innings between triple-A and the majors as a rookie last year). Both are breaks for the Yanks as Shields had emerged as a strong number two in the Tampa rotation and, in an otherwise disappointing season, Crawford has hit .380/.436/.500 against the Yankees this year.

The Rays are also without second baseman Brendan Harris (shoulder), which is news less because of his absence than because of the player who has replaced him, 32-year-old minor league lifer Jorge Velandia, who is with his fifth organization in as many years. Velandia is a career .247/.304/.356 hitter in the minors and last sniffed the majors with the Mets in 2003, but he returned with a rage last week and went 10 for 18 with four doubles and four walks over his first six games as the Rays’ starting second baseman. He’s 1 for 8 with four Ks over his last two games, however, so perhaps the Yankees be fortunate enough to see the real Jorge Velandia at the plate over the next three days.

They better hope so, as Kei Igawa is starting tonight in place of Roger Clemens, who has been scratched once again due to his tweaky left hamstring. Clemens will not appear in this series, but the Yankees are still expecting him to pitch against Baltimore and answer the bell for the postseason. Much like they are with Ian Kennedy, the Yankees are being overly cautious with Clemens now in the hope of getting more out of him in October. Here’s hoping it works out that way, at least in Clemens’ case (with Kennedy ticketed for the long relief role, something will have to go wrong for him to see much if any postseason action).

Igawa made seven starts since his last demotion to triple-A Columbus, posting the following line:

43 2/3 IP, 45 H, 20 ER, 8 BB, 44 K, 1.21 WHIP, 4.12 ERA, 3-2

Four of those seven starts were quality starts, including his final three. Igawa’s only faced one batter since August 31. That came on Saturday and the batter, Toronto’s Hector Luna, hit an RBI single.

Opposing Igawa will be Jason Hammel. Hammel was supposed emerge in the rotation along with Shields, but stumbled badly in his last four starts last year, starting with a stinker against the Yanks at the Stadium. He then failed to make the Rays out of camp, arrive in mid-June to post a 6.11 ERA out of the bullpen, then increased that to 7.44 over his first eight starts (the first of which saw him allow two runs in four innings in the Bronx). However, Hammel has posted a 2.35 ERA over his last four starts, allowing just one home run and striking out 17 against just four walks in 23 innings. That streak also started in the Bronx–Hammel threw five innings of one-run ball striking out seven and walking none the last time these two teams met–and has continued with games against the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Angels.

Hammel will face the same lineup the Yanks ran out there yesterday, though Damon will play in the field and Matsui will DH.

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Offense: The Yanks scored an average of six runs per game over four games against a team that has allowed 4.3 runs per game on the season, so that’s good. In an unusual twist, however, all four games were decided more by the Yankee offense than by the team’s pitching. That credits the bats with two wins, but also two loses. The Yanks won the middle two games of the series by scoring 19 runs and simply out-hitting the failures of the bullpen, but they lost the opener by failing to take advantage of five scoreless innings by the pen, and lost the finale by simply failing to hit Jesse Litsch.

Studs:

Alex Rodriguez 7 for 17, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 4 R, 4 BB, 2 K, CS
Derek Jeter 7 for 21, 2 2B, RBI, 2 R, SB, 4 K
Doug Mientkiewicz 4 for 10, 2 2B, RBI, R, 2 BB, HBP, K
Jose Molina 3 for 6, 2B, 3 RBI, R, K

Duds:

Jason Giambi 1 for 10, RBI, IBB, 4 K
Wilson Betemit 0 for 3, 2 K

Shelley Duncan appeared as a defensive replacement in the opener, but did not come to bat. Bronson Sardinha scored the tying run in the ninth inning of the second game as a pinch runner. Alberto Gonzalez did not appear in the series.

Rotation: A good showing by 4/5 of the Yankee rotation, especially considering that Hughes and Pettitte, especially, were given short notice (though full rest) prior to their starts as a result of the injuries to Ian Kennedy (who, it seems, will be shut down for the season) and Roger Clemens (who, as of this writing, is still scheduled to pitch tonight in Tampa). Chien-Ming Wang was the best, matching Roy Halladay for six innings in the opener before finally coughing up two runs (one unearned) in the seventh. Mike Mussina was second best, allowing three runs in his only bad inning out of seven on Sunday. Andy Pettitte recovered from a rough second inning and an unearned run in the third to eek out a quality start in the finale (6 IP, 3 ER). Phil Hughes fell an inning short on Saturday due to inefficiency (5 IP, 99 pitches), but otherwise pitched fairly well (3 R, only one walk, no homers, 69 percent strikes).

Bullpen: The Yankee pen had to work 17 innings in this four game series, which is the sort of workload (nearly 4 1/3 innings per game) that killed the pen back in April. The good news is that the Yankees have a 16-man thanks to expanded rosters, so even with that high work load, four Yankee relievers didn’t pitch at all (Matt DeSalvo, Ty Clippard, Chase Wright, and Sean Henn). Those who did had a wide variety of results, but altogether allowed 13 runs and 25 base runners in those 17 frames, a dismal collective performance.

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Quickly now, who led the 1987 Yankees in home runs? Don Mattingly, the team’s best hitter? No. Was it Hall of Famer Dave Winfield? Sorry, that’s incorrect. How about future Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson? That’s wrong, too. Maybe Jack "The Ripper" Clark? Nope, that’s the wrong year; Clark was a Yankee in 1988, before evolving into Lance McCullers, Jimmy Jones, and Stanley Jefferson.

The correct answer, for those who haven’t noticed the baseball card image just yet, is Mike Pagliarulo. Or "Pags," as he was called, despite the silent "G" in his name. That’s the same Pagliarulo who was no better than the fourth best position player on the ’87 Yankees, or perhaps only the fifth best, if we put him behind the perennially underrated Willie Randolph. In what amounted to a career year, the 27-year-old Pagliarulo belted 32 home runs that season, as he did his best Graig Nettles impression during a failed run at the American League East title that saw the Yankees finish a respectable fourth—with 89 wins—in a stacked division.

Pagliarulo also slugged a career-high in 1987 (.479), and reached his best single-season mark in RBI’s with 87 RBIs. He never came close to those numbers again, but in a way, that shouldn’t matter at all. Here’s a guy who wasn’t supposed to have a major league career at all. Dubbed a non-prospect early in his professional career, Pagliarulo was never expected to make an assault at a major league roster spot. Fortunately for him, and all of the other young third basemen in the organization at the time, the Yankees traded Graig Nettles to the Padres in the spring of 1984, opening up third base for veterans Toby Harrah and Roy Smalley. That was the plan, but the 35-year-old Harrah had already seen his best days, while Smalley struggled in making the conversion from shortstop to third base, fielding the hot corner at a horrid .905 clip. There was then a failed experiment with Dale Berra, who was saddled with drug problems and the high expectations created by his last name. With no one else in the pipeline, the Yankees turned to Pagliarulo only by default in 1984 and ’85.

Almost from the day he arrived in the majors, I heard that Pagliarulo couldn’t play. Oh, he had some power from the left side, but that was about his only discernibly good habit. He would never hit consistently enough to keep himself in the lineup, didn’t have much range at third base, and had absolutely no footspeed. In other words, he appeared to be a placeholder—someone who would fill a spot on the left side of the infield until a better prospect came along in a few years. That prophecy appeared mostly accurate when Pags made a lackluster pinstriped debut in 1984, batting an inconsequential .239 with merely seven home runs in just over 200 at-bats. Forget about Graig Nettles, this guy looked more like a left-handed version of Celerino Sanchez.

Pagliarulo might have gone completely by the wayside in 1985, and back to Triple-A Columbus, but instead he went to work. Adopting a philosophy that seemed to be borrowed from the relentless Don Mattingly, Pagliarulo registered excruciatingly long hours in the batting cage, refining his swing, sharpening his timing, and improving his ability to recognize pitches. Pags also made efforts to upgrade his fielding, through the sheer repetition of handling hundreds of pre-game ground balls. (If anything, Pagliarulo worked too hard, sometimes exhausting himself by the time that September rolled around.) Not satisfied with merely taking up space in The Baseball Encyclopedia, a determined Pagliarulo became hell-bent on having an impact as a major leaguer. He also became my favorite Yankee, at a time when most fans preferred following the cult of Mattingly, or Winfield, or Henderson, or even Randolph.

Emerging as the Yankees’ third baseman against right-handed pitching, the pull-hitting Pagliarulo clubbed 19 home runs in 380 at-bats during the 1985 season. The following year, he played almost every day, against right-handers and left-handers, compiling 28 home runs and a .464 slugging percentage. Heck, this guy was no Celerino Sanchez, or Rich McKinney, or Jerry Kenney. He had evolved into a slightly poor man’s version of Nettles, and on a team with stars like Henderson and Mattingly, that was plenty good enough.

Pagliarulo’s status as an overachiever, coupled with a rare toughness, made him a winner in the Markusen household. The antithesis of soft players like the Giants’ Chris Brown, Pagliarulo displayed the kind of grit that was beginning to fade on the major league scene during the 1980s. After being hit in the face by a pitch during the 1986 season, Pags missed only one game, then immediately returned to the lineup. Showing no signs of fear, Pagliarulo proceeded to hit home runs in three consecutive games. Forget about Nettles, this was Clint Eastwood in pinstripes.

I also liked Pagliarulo because of his willingness to speak out against what he considered to be wrong—specifically a member of the Hollywood elite. While I generally like to write about politics as much I like to opine about brain surgery, it fits the storyline here. Back in the mid-1980s, as the Yankees prepared to play a game at the Stadium, Pagliarulo noticed that actress Jane Fonda was on the premises. When asked about Fonda, one of the most reprehensible figures in American pop culture (and a highly overrated actress, to boot), Pagliarulo made no effort at hiding his contempt. Citing Fonda’s anti-American stance during the Vietnam War, Pagliarulo delivered his uppercut swing (verbally, of course) at "Hanoi Jane." I loved it.

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The Yankees finished second to the Blue Jays in yesterday’s makeup game, which doubled as their regular season home finale. Thus, the half game in the AL East standings was rounded up, and the Red Sox hold a two-game lead with just six games left. The good news is that the Tigers came in second to the Twins, so the Yanks clinched a tie for the Wild Card, and can clinch outright with a win over the Devil Rays or a Tiger loss tonight.

As for the game it self, A.J. Burnett was supposed to start for the Jays, but had to head home for personal reasons. Instead, the Yankees faced Jessie Litsch, who beat the Sox his last time out. Yesterday, Litsch seemed to do one of two things, get groundballs right at his fielders, or give up doubles. Unfortunately for the Yankees, he did a lot more of the former. Of the 30 Yankees Litsch faced over 7 2/3 innings, eighteen hit a grounder right at an infielder and four doubled.

The first double was hit by Doug Mientkiewicz with one out (a ground out, of course) in the third. He moved to third when Curtis Thigpen booted a grounder by Melky Cabrera (the only Blue Jay error of the day), held when Johnny Damon hit a week grounder down the first base line, and was stranded by a rare fly out hit by Derek Jeter. The second double was hit by Hideki Matsui with two out (both ground outs, of course) in the fourth. Jorge Posada jutted his right knee into a pitch to reach base, then Robinson Cano grounded out to end the inning. Derek Jeter hit the third double leading off the sixth, moved to third on an Abreu grounder, and scored on a grounder by Alex Rodriguez for what would be the only Yankee run of the day. The last double was hit by Bobby Abreu with two outs (both ground outs, of course) in the eighth. It finally drove Litsch from the game after just 99 pitches, but Casey Janssen got the final out to strand Abreu, then picked up the save in the ninth.

Andy Pettitte, meanwhile, had a rough second inning, allowing three runs on a walk and three hits, including doubles by Thigpen and John McDonald. The Jays added a run in the third when Alex Rios doubled with one out, moved to third on a fly out to right, and scored when Derek Jeter booted the third out. Andy faced the minimum over the next three innings, but, with Litsch cruising, the damage was done. Final score 4-1 Jays.

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