Last week, After Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez became the first pitchers in a decade to toss consecutive complete games against the Yankees, I pointed out the following about their recent performance.

In their last six combined starts, Lee and Hernandez have gone 5-0 with five complete games. In the sixth game, Hernandez allowed just one run in nine innings, but the Mariners lost in 13.

Both pitchers have made one start since then. Lee beat the Tigers, holding them to one run over eight innings, striking out 11 against one walk. Hernandez allowed a whopping two runs in seven innings to the Royals in a game the Mariners’ bullpen blew immediately in the eighth.

The Yankees will have to run the Lee/Hernandez gauntlet again this weekend in the middle two games of a four-game set against the Mariners that will conclude the first half for both teams. That puts the onus on them to make hay against bookend starters Jason Vargas and Ryan Rowland-Smith, the latter of whom held the Yanks to two runs over six innings in the finale of last week’s series only to be out-dueled by CC Sabathia. Rowland-Smith has posted a 4.15 ERA in seven starts since returning to the rotation from a May stint in the bullpen, but he has walked four more men than he has struck out and allowed seven home runs, including one to Robinson Cano, in those seven starts.

Tonight, the Yankees and All-Star Andy Pettitte (10-2, 2.82 ERA) take on Jason Vargas, the former Marlin and Met lefty who came to Seattle in the massive J.J. Putz trade. Vargas, now 27, has proven to be a perfect Mariners pitcher in that he throws strikes (2.3 BB/9) and lets his defense and ballpark take care of the rest. Opponents are hitting .263 on balls in play against Vargas, and the lefty has gone 5-1 with a 2.30 ERA at home (against 1-3, 4.50 on the road), though to his credit he’s also just flat-out nails against lefty batters, holding them to a .173/.204/.288 line this season with 18 strikeouts against just three walks.

Despite Vargas’s dominance of lefthanders, Curtis Granderson starts in center (after sitting to start Wednesday night’s game). Robinson Cano returns to the lineup after a 24-hour Derbyitis bug. Alex Rodriguez will be the DH with Ramiro Peña filling in at third base. Brett Gardner drops to eighth against the lefty, hitting between Gardner and Peña.

Oh, and Nick Swisher won his popularity contest.

(more…)

Okay, so I just wrote one of the longest previews I’ve ever written getting some stuff off my chest that’s been there since November and shoved aside some other important work to do it. But it all got erased. So while I try not to lose my mind, here’s the roster of the Mariners, who have scored just 3.4 runs per game this year, but are running out one of the league’s best pitchers tonight.

(more…)

The Yankees’ magic number for clinching a playoff berth is three. That means they could do it this weekend in Seattle, though it might require a little help from, ironically, the Angels, who are in Arlington facing the Rangers, the team whose inability to catch the Yankees would thus guarantee New York a return to the postseason. The most likely scenario would have the Yankees and Angels both taking two of three from their lesser opponents, putting the Yankees in the odd position of arriving in Anaheim on Monday with warm feelings about the Halos.

Looking at the pitching matchups in Seattle, the Yankees would seem to have the middle game, which pits CC Sabathia against the unfortunately named Doug Fister, in hand. Joba Chamberlain seems to finally be rounding back into shape after posting this combined line in his last two Rules-shortened starts: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K. That gives the Yankees more than a good chance against reclamation project Ian Snell on Sunday. One has to assume the Angels will at the very least avoid a sweep in Arlington. That’s three games. Of course, if the Yankees want to do it in style, they’ll start with an surprisingly unlikely win tonight.

A.J. Burnett has exceeded my expectations this year in exactly one way: he has made every single one of his starts. Tonight he’ll make his 30th start for just the third time in his 11-year career. That is worthy of a certain level of praise (Carl Pavano made four fewer major league starts in his four years as a Yankee combined), but the quality of those starts of late has been anything but praiseworthy. Just two of Burnett’s last five starts have been quality starts and over his last nine he’s gone 1-5 with a 6.14 ERA. Worse yet, he’s trending in the wrong direction. Four of his six starts in August were quality, but only one of his three in September has been and in those last five he’s posted a 7.67 ERA in part due to the eight home runs he has allowed in those outings.

Burnett hasn’t seen the Mariners yet this year, but shouldn’t find them much of a challenge given that they’re the second-worst offense in baseball and the only team in the junior circuit to have scored less than four runs per game on the season. What will be challenging is his mound opponent, Felix Hernandez.

Still just 23, King Felix seems to have finally become a pitcher worthy of his nickname. Despite the punchless M’s offense, Hernandez has already set a career high with 15 wins (against just five losses). More importantly, he has decreased his homer rate for the third year in a row, corrected the spike his walk rate experienced last year, and is striking out batters at a tick about his previous top rate (he’ll surpass 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career with seven more Ks). He has also benefited from the M’s improved defense, posting a BABIP below .300 for the first time since his rookie half season in 2005 and leading the league in fewest hits per nine innings. That last is a product of both his own effectiveness and the gloves behind him.

The Yankees have added first baseman Juan Miranda to the major league roster. With Jorge Posada serving a three-game suspension that finishes on Saturday, Jose Molina catches and bats ninth tonight behind the usual suspects. Melky Cabrera is in center despite Brett Gardner’s recent resurgence (six for his last 11 with two doubles).

(more…)

The Yankees avoided a post-Red Sox let-down by taking two of three from the Blue Jays, but they needed eleven innings to take the rubber game and a late-game comeback to win Game 2. Now they’re coming off a cross-country flight with Derek Jeter (foot), Alex Rodriguez (elbow), and Jorge Posada (middle finger on throwing hand) all smarting from being hit by the ball in Wednesday afternoon’s nearly-four-hour marathon.

The good news is they’re playing the Mariners. The Yankees took two of three from the M’s in the Bronx as June turned into July and the M’s are 9-10 over their last six series. Like the Yankees, the Mariners are also coming off a nearly-four-hour extra-inning win (1-0 in 14 frames over the White Sox) that saw their shortstop, the newly acquired Jack Wilson, leave with an injury (hamstring).

The Mariners are also a bad team that is wildly outperforming its Pythagorean record thanks to the league’s best defense and correspondingly strong pitching. Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and Jarrod Washburn have combined to pitch 374 1/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA for the Mariners. Fortunately for the Yankees, Washburn is now a Detroit Tiger, Bedard is about on the disabled list headed for season-ending shoulder surgery, and Hernandez pitched yesterday and will miss this four-game set.

Which leaves what exactly? A team with the worst offense in baseball, a negative run differential, a replacement-level rotation, and a few spectacular glove men (Beltre, Gutierrez, Suzuki, and Wilson, who, like Jeter, is back in the lineup tonight).

Tonight, the M’s offer Ian Snell, a 27-year-old righty who has fallen hard from his breakout 2006 season and was toiling away in Triple-A for the Pirates, who were all too happy to unload him on the M’s in the Jack Wilson trade. The Mariners are banking on the moody Snell, who had fallen out with Pirates management, benefiting from a change of scenery that involves a pitchers park and a strong defense. It worked for one start, ironically in the Rangers’ launching pad. In his second Mariner outing, and first at Safeco, he walked six men in 1 1/3 innings before getting the hook.

I ridiculed the Wilson-Snell deal on SI.com. True, I took the short-view, analyzing the trade as the M’s attempt to thrust themselves into the Wild Card race (this was before they traded Washburn), but even looking at Wilson as a multi-year solution at shortstop on a defense-first team (a sketchy premise given the 31-year-old’s fragility and below-average bat, even for a shortstop), I find the trade uninspiring at best.

Snell faces CC Sabathia, who is coming off his biggest Yankee start (7 2/3 scoreless frames of two-hit ball in which he struck out nine Red Sox). CC actually struggled against the Mariners in July, allowing six runs on ten hits in 5 2/3 innings, and he’s been up and down since, often battling through a lack of command. Still, he’s 5-2 since that loss to the M’s, and that last start was a a beauty.

Alex Rodriguez, as previously scheduled, and Jorge Posada get the night off. Derek Jeter is in the lineup, of course. Jerry Hairston Jr. plays third and bats eighth. Jose Molina catches and bats ninth. The rest of the regulars are above them.

(more…)

Seattle Mariners

2009 Record: 39-36 (.520)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 36-39 (.480)

2008 Record: 61-101 (.377)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (.414)

Manager: Don Wakamatsu
General Manager: Jack Zduriencik

Home Ballpark (Park Factors): Safeco Field (96/97)

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Russell Branyan replaces Raul Ibañez
• Ken Griffey Jr. replaces Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro
• Franklin Gutierrez replaces Jeremy Reed and Willie Bloomquist
• Rob Johnson (minors) replaces Jeff Clement (minors)
• Chris Woodward is filling in for Adrian Beltre (DL)
• Ronny Cedeño is filling in for Yuniesky Betancourt (DL)
• Mike Sweeney replaces Bryan LaHair (minors)
• Josh Wilson replaces Miguel Cairo
• Mike Carp replaces Willie Bloomquist
• Ryan Langerhans replaces Brad Wilkerson and others
• Garrett Olson is filling in for Erik Bedard (DL)
• Jason Vargas is filling in for Carlos Silva (DL)
• Brandon Morrow is taking over the starts of Ryan Feierabend (DL) and R.A. Dickey
• David Aardsma replaces J.J. Putz
• Sean White replaces Sean Green
• Chris Jakubauskas replaces Rowland-Smith’s relief innings

25-man Roster:

1B – Russell Branyan (L)
2B – Jose Lopez (R)
SS – Ronny Cedeño (R)
3B – Chris Woodward (R)
C – Kenji Johjima (R)
RF – Ichiro Suzuki (L)
CF – Franklin Gutierrez (R)
LF – Wladimir Balentien (R)
DH – Ken Griffey Jr. (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Sweeney (1B)
R – Josh Wilson (IF)
L – Mike Carp (1B/OF)
L – Ryan Langerhans (OF)
R – Rob Johnson (C)

Rotation:

R – Felix Hernandez
L – Garrett Olson
R – Brandon Morrow
L – Jarrod Washburn
L – Jason Vargas

Bullpen:

R – David Aardsma
R – Mark Lowe
R – Miguel Batista
R – Sean White
R – Chris Jakubauskas
R – Roy Corcoran

15-day DL: 3B – Adrian Beltre (bone spurs in shoulder), SS – Yuniesky Betancourt (hamstring), LHP – Erik Bedard (shoulder inflammation), RHP – Shawn Kelley (oblique strain)

60-day DL: LF – Endy Chavez (ACL), RHP – Carlos Silva (labrum, rotator cuff), LHP Cesar Jimenez (shoulder and biceps tendonitis), LHP – Ryan Feierabend (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Ichiro Suzuki (RF)
L – Russell Branyan (1B)
L – Ken Griffey Jr. (DH)
R – Jose Lopez (2B)
R – Franklin Gutierrez (CF)
R – Kenji Johjima (C)
R – Wladimir Balentein (LF)
R – Ronny Cedeño (SS)
R – Chris Woodward (3B)

(more…)

It was nice to see the Yankees take two of three from the division leading Rays. It was nice to see them score 33 runs in their last four games. Unfortunately, neither really means much. They Rays still have a double-digit lead on Bombers, and the Red Sox are still 7.5 games ahead of them in the Wild Card chase, now with just 22 games left in the regular season.

Tonight, after a 3,000-mile flight, the Yanks take on the only team in the league that has been mathematically eliminated, the 54-85 Seattle Mariners. The M’s are back in spring training mode, using their meaningless September to audition some of their minor leaguers and try some others out in new roles. The big story tonight is 23-year-old fireballer Brandon Morrow, who will make his first major league start after having made 100 relief appearances for the M’s over the last two seasons. Morrow posted a 1.47 ERA in relief this year, has struck out 10.17 men per nine innings in his big league career, and supposedly has a six-pitch repertoire.

If that sounds like a recipe for a frustrating night of Yankee baseball, focus on the fact that the Yankees are also auditioning a starter tonight. Andy Pettitte is pitching on a one-year deal, so the Yankees will likely be watching his last few starts for signs that it would be worth offering him another one-year deal for 2009. Last year, Pettitte’s strong second half helped propel the Yankees into the playoffs, but this year, the veteran lefty has posted a 5.54 ERA since the All-Star break, a 7.04 ERA in three season starts against the Red Sox, and his ERA+ on the season is below league average for the first time in his 14-year career. In his last two starts, Pettitte has been roughed up for 12 runs in 11 innings.

Pettitte’s value this season has been largely tied up in his ability to take the ball every five days and pitch deep into games. He and Mike Mussina are the only Yankees not to have missed a start this season, and the 36-year-old Pettitte is averaging more innings per start (just less than 6 1/3 innings per turn) than the 39-year-old Mussina. Given that, the solution to the Pettitte question ultimately has more to do with how the rest of the 2009 rotation shapes up than how Pettitte himself performs this September. If the Yankees can fill up the five rotation spots without him, they should probably do so, but if they’re going to need an innings-eater to take one spot, bringing back fan favorite Pettitte on a discounted one-year deal would be the smartest and safest option.

The other options for next year’s rotation include Chien-Ming Wang (who will be returning from the foot injury that ended his season in June), roughly 150 innings of Joba Chamberlain (minus any that might be used in another workload-limiting stint in the bullpen), the 40-year-old Mussina (who looks likely to re-sign), a big-ticket free agent the team might not land, and a group of youngsters and minor league vets led by Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves. Given that, having Pettitte on hand to eat up 200 innings would likely be worth the one-year investment, particularly as a backup plan to that big-ticket free agent, but if Andy’s unable to pull out of his current slump, it will force the Yankees to think much harder about whether or not they really want him occupying a rotation spot that a prospect could emerge to fill and Darrell Rasner or his like could fill in the interim.

(more…)