Yo, dudes and dudettes: It is b-r-i-c-k in New York this morning. First stupid cold day of the winter. Good gosh. I spend the winter months bitching and moaning about the cold while Emily whines all summer about the heat. Everything evens out in the end, right?

So, according to Nick Cafardo, the bloom is off the rose for Theo Epstein up in Boston. Murray Chass reports that all may not be kosher with the way the Sox are doing business. There has been talk this week that the negotiations with D. Matsuzaka have hit some trouble, but I figure Boston will get their man when all is said and done. Our man out west, Rich Lederer likes what the Sox have done so far.

Meanwhile, closer to home, nothing to do but wait and see what’ll happen with Andy P.

For the first time in eleven years, the Yankees have claimed a player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Back in December 1995, the player they claimed from the Brewers was Marc Ronan, a then-26-year-old catcher who had caught six games for new Yankee manager Joe Torre’s Cardinals in 1993. Those six games were destined to be Ronan’s only major league appearances. With the newly acquired Joe Girardi, Jim Leyritz and a rookie named Jorge Posada in camp, Ronan was cut in spring training. This year, the Yankees’ claim is far more compelling: former Baseball Prospectus cover boy Josh Phelps.

Phelps fits the description of the right-handed power-hitting first baseman the Yankees were looking for, though whether or not he does so any more than Andy Phillips, who is still on the roster, or Craig Wilson, who may yet be resigned, is questionable. Phelps, now 28, came up with the Blue Jays as a catcher and, arriving directly from double-A, went 0 for 13 in two sips of coffee in 2000 and 2001. In 2002 he abandoned catching and split the year between triple-A Syracuse and Toronto, mashing the ball in both places as a DH/first baseman. It was at this point that Phelps became a cover boy. At age 24, he was drawing comparisons to a young Dale Murphy, another tall, lean, powerful, right-handed-hitting converted catcher. Pegged as a future star in Toronto, Phelps suffered a slight sophomore slump in 2003. When his struggles got even worse in 2004, the Blue Jays dealt him to Cleveland for never-was Eric Crozier. Phelps did better with the Indians, hitting .303/.338/.579 over the remainder of the season, but departed for Tampa Bay as a free agent that winter. In Tampa, Phelps lost his DH job to Jonny Gomes after hitting .266/.328/.424 through June 5. He hasn’t appeared in the majors since then, but he had his best season since 2002 with triple-A Toledo in the Tigers’ system last year. Coming off that .303/.370/.532 season, Phelps signed a minor league deal with the Orioles on November 15, but the O’s left him unprotected and the Yankees, against whom Phelps has hit .318/.369/.523 in 107 at-bats over his major league career, snapped him up.

The selection cost the Yankees $50,000 and the Yankees will have to offer Phelps back to Baltimore (in exchange for half of their money back) if they want to remove him from the 25-man roster at any point this season. Phelps will clearly compete directly with Andy Phillips this spring. Since Phillips is out of options, one of the two (if not both should Craig Wilson re-enter the picture) will likely be with another organization come opening day. With that, here’s a chart comparing Phelps, Phillips, Wilson, and a pair of similarly skilled lefty first basemen, Carlos Peña, who made a cameo as a Columbus Clipper in 2006 before making a briefer one in Boston at the end of the year and is once again a free agent, and Hee Seop Choi, who after all the hand wringing we did over his landing with the Red Sox, had an awful, injury-shortened year in Pawtucket and has since signed a minor league deal with the Devil Rays:

Phelps stacks up well against that competition. If anything, his continued search for a major league contract may have as much to do with his glove as his bat. It remains to be seen whether or not Phelps, who has played the field in just 31 of his 343 post-catching major league games, can be trusted at first base. With Jason Giambi locked in at DH, his defense this spring is sure to be closely watched by Joe Torre and his staff. That said, mark Phelps down next to Brian Bruney and Darrell Rasner as further evidence that Brian Cashman and company are on point in all phases of their game.

So the word from Andy Pettitte’s camp is that the southpaw still wants to pitch in the big leagues. The Yankees are clearly hot for him and are reportedly prepared to pay him $15-16 million for 2007, and perhaps even give him a two-year deal when all is said and done. Now whether Pettitte’s agents are using the Bombers simply to get a better deal from the Astros, only time will tell. According to The Houston Chronicle:

The Astros’ excitement was a bit tempered by the realization that Pettitte hasn’t decided where he will play.

“We certainly are motivated,” [GM, Tim] Purpura said. “I think certainly Andy is motivated. I can only control our part of the process. They obviously will talk to other clubs and see what financial parameters they can glean from the other clubs.

“That part of it I can’t really tell you. Certainly from our point of view, we’re ready to move forward if we can make the right deal.”

Meanwhile, Brian Cashman had dinner with Scott Boras, Mike Piazza signed with the A’s, Freddy Garcia was moved to Philly, and the Cubs landed Ted Lilly.

According to Tom Verducci, the Andy Pettitte situation is heating up:

The free-agent left-hander, who is strongly considering retirement, is said to be intrigued with the idea of returning to pinstripes and “could possibly have a deal by the end of the week” with New York, according to a baseball source familiar with the negotiations.

The Yankees are willing to wait as long as necessary for Pettitte, whose original timetable was to defer a decision on 2007 until later this month. Pettitte is the club’s No. 1 option because the former Yankee is New York-proven, is left-handed (possibly joining Johnson and Kei Igawa to give them three lefties in the rotation), does not require a lengthy term to his contract and is coming off an impressive second half of 2006.

In this market, the Yankees would do well to get Pettitte at two years and about $26 million.

I liked Pettitte when he was with the Yanks. How can any Yankee fan ever forget his performance in Game 5 of the 1996 World Serious? That said, I wasn’t sorry when he left. Though I’m generally not crazy about second-comings, I have to say, given what is out there, and the current state of the Yankees starting pitching, I wouldn’t be unhappy to see Pettitte return for a year or two, would you?

Still nuthin’ doin’ from the Yanks, though reports have it that they are still interested in Andy Pettitte. Bill Madden reports:

As one rival AL scout observed in the lobby of the Dolphin Hotel: “What’s with the Yankees? Are they even here? Everybody seems to be going crazy this winter and they’re just sitting back watching it all.”

“I’m patient,” said Cashman, “but I’ll be aggressive if it’s something that makes sense. At the same time, I’m more than willing to go into spring training with what I’ve got.”

I don’t think any of us would be surprised if the Yanks made a splashy move before the season begins (maybe a former fan lands a job in the front office, who knows?). That said, it sure is odd to see them so restrained. Time will tell if this is a good or a bad thing. A friend of mine wondered the other day whether or not the Red Sox are out-Yankeeing the Yankees. He worried that the Bombers could be left behind. But I’m not so sure. Hey, in Cashmoney, we trust, right? Muh-hu-ha-ha.

Actually, it wasn’t poor Tanyon that got so many Yankee fans hot-under-the-collar. It was the way Joe Torre used him. Anyhow, he’s an Atlanta Brave now. So long, Snoops. Thanks for the memories.

The rich seats just got more expensive at Yankee Stadium. There are slight price hikes all around, but nobody was hit harder than the rattle-your-jewelry crowd.

It’s a cool, crisp Saturday morning in the Bronx. The winter meetings are just a few days off. We’ll be able to follow them closely through a variety of sources, including Pete Abraham’s essential “Lo-Hud” blog. What do you think will shake down? Any hopes, any predictions? Whatta ya hear, whatta ya say?

Major League Baseball’s new Basic Agreement, now in effect, mercifully stripped a lot of red tape out of the free agent process. Arbitration offers are still a part of the process, however, and midnight tonight is the deadline for teams to offer salary arbitration to their declared free agents. This deadline is far less significant than it used to be, however, since players not offered arbitration will still be able to resign with their former teams (under the previous Agreement they couldn’t do so until May 1 of the following season).

There are really just two remaining factors for teams to consider when deciding whether or not to offer arbitration. The first is that teams are only eligible to receive compensation for departed free agents to whom they did offer arbitration. Of course, with the elimination of compensation for Type C free agents and the reclassification of Type A and Type B players to the top 40 percent of the field (was the top 50 percent), this applies to a much smaller group of players. For example, the only Yankee free agent who falls within that top 40 percent is Ron Villone, who is a Type B (Mike Mussina was a Type A, but having resigned, that’s moot). For those players, however, the old catch remains. If you offer a player arbitration in the hope that he’ll sign with another team and bring you a compensation draft pick, you run the risk of that player accepting salary arbitration, which guarantees him a contract with your team for the following season.

Take the case of Villone, an undistinguished aging middle reliever who pitched way over his head for the first half of 2006 before bottoming out so severely that he ended up with an ERA below his already below league average career mark (how Elias subsequently placed him in the top 40 percent of all eligible free agents remains a mystery to me, though I believe playing time is a factor, and Villone did pitch in 70 games last year). Recent rumors have had Villone close to a contract with the Cleveland Indians, which suggest the Yankees may want to offer him arbitration in order to land a supplemental round pick in next June’s amateur draft. Then again, Villone is also a New Jersey native who grew up a Yankee fan and is thus a prime candidate to accept the Yankees’ arbitration offer, thus requiring them to pay for his age-37 season. In the David Parrish and Drew Henson era, the risk of Villone accepting arbitration wouldn’t be worth the shot at a draft pick, but now that the Yankees are making the most of their draft picks, the shot at an extra pick is awfully tempting.

According to Peter Abraham, there are a few free agent deals on the table that are just waiting for tonight’s deadline to pass in order to find out if compensation will be part of the cost. Those deals must be for Type A players, as the picks given in compensation for Type B free agents are supplemental round picks only, meaning they are not picks taken away from the signing team, but additional picks added to the draft specifically for compensation purposes. Remarkably, nine Type A free agents have already been signed, guaranteeing that their old teams will offer arbitration in order to receive that compensatory pick.

While there is still hope that the Yankees will persue Craig Wilson as their second first baseman, The Post reports that Shea Hillenbrand is still in the mix. Over at the Times, Tyler Kepner writes that the Bombers are also looking at one Julio Zuleta, a 31-year old who has played in Japan for the past three seasons. The chief reason the Yanks are curious about Zuleta is that he’s faired well against D. Matsuzaka. Meanwhile, according to Newsday, Bernie Williams’ future with the Yankees is more than a little uncertain.

A quick housekeeping note. Some of you may have noticed that we’ve reordered the sections on the sidebar. Although you’ll have to scroll down a bit further to find the pitching probables during the season, we think the new order is more intuitive. I’m currently in the process of streamlining and organizing some of the more unwieldy sections, so you’ll likely notice further changes in the coming weeks. As always, the links on the sidebar are there for the benefit of our readers and we welcome feedback, either in comments or via email, regarding what is or isn’t there, or how we can make the sidebar more user friendly.

See also the Outfielders and Starting Pitchers.

C – Jorge Posada .277/.374/.492 (.305 EQA)

At an age when the bottom drops out on most catchers, Jorge Posada had one of the three or four best seasons of his career. He ranked fourth among all major league catchers in VORP, behind a trio of youngsters (Mauer, McCann and Martinez). Best of all, Posada had what was undoubtedly his best defensive season. Whereas Joe Girardi at long last taught Posada how to block the plate in 2005, Tony Pena taught him how to set his feet to throw resulting in the best caught stealing percentage of his career this past season. At age 35, Jorge Posada is still improving his defense and hitting better than most catchers do in their prime.

A

1B – Jason Giambi .253/.413/.558 (.334)

Although Giambi’s generally been regarded as a DH for years, 2006 was the first season in his career in which he played more games as a DH than he did in the field. Troublingly, despite the prolonged exposure to the non-position, his alarmingly consistent positional splits persisted. Giambi the DH hit a solid .224/.373/.531 (.301 GPA), but Giambi the first baseman hit a resounding .289/.459/.592 (.355 GPA). Unfortunately, Giambi’s defense continued to decline this past season to the point at which the idea of Giambi playing the field more than once or twice a week is untenable.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that Giambi, despite the DH-related decrease in batting average, remains one of the most productive hitters in baseball (he had the fifth best EQA in the AL in 2006 and was tied with Chipper Jones for the eleventh best mark in the majors). It seemed unthinkable in the offseason following Giambi’s scandal, injury, and illness-riddled 2004 season, but Ga-bombi’s 2005 and 2006 seasons, in which he’s hit a combined .262/.426/.547 with 69 homers and 200 RBIs, rank with his best. By both EQA and OPS+, Giambi’s best seasons, in order, are his final season with the A’s in 2001, when he wrongly lost the MVP to Ichiro Suzuki by a mere eight points, the previous year, when he properly won the award, his underappreciated first season with the Yankees in 2002, 2005 and 2006. In chart form that looks like this:

Yes, three of Jason Giambi’s five best seasons have come in pinstripes.

(more…)

It’s just been announced that the Yankees have won the right to negotiate with Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa, who was posted by the Hanshin Tigers of the Japanese Central League. The winning bid, alternately reported as $25 and $26 million, was actually $26,000,194 (the 194 being Igawa’s 2006 strikeout total). The losing bids are not announced, though word has leaked out that the Mets had bid $15 or $16 million and the Padres had also placed an eight-figure bid. The Mariners, Orioles, Giants, and World Champion Cardinals were among the other teams believed to have been interested in Igawa. The Yankees will have until midnight on December 28 to sign Igawa. Should they fail to do so, they will not have to pay the bid amount.

So who the hell is Kei Igawa? He’s a 27-year-old left-handed starting pitcher. His best pitch is said to be his curve ball, though some reports say that the pitch is actually a change-up that drops like a curve. He also has a slider in the low 80s and a 90-mile-per-hour fastball. With that repertoire he has lead the Central League in strikeouts in three of the last five years, won the Central League MVP award in 2003 (20-5, 2.80 ERA), and lead the Tigers to two Central League pennants (though Hanshin lost in the Japan Series both times). As is often the case with curveballers, however, he’s quite susceptible to the longball, surrendering a whopping 52 over the 2004 and 2005 seasons combined–this in the Central League’s short 146-game season.

According to this scouting report, however, Igawa made a major adjustment in 2006 that helped to reduce his susceptibility to the home run. Here’s the relevant passage:

He’s finally figured out that the [straight, 88-90 MPH] fastball is a gopher pitch when centered and overexposed so he’ll go to it less often (will throw it down the middle when he’s confident the hitter is unbalanced) and try to spot on the corners or miss out of the zone with it when he isn’t sure if the hitter is sitting on it. This adjustment is HUGE, as he has finally learned to pitch backwards and mix his pitches better (which he MUST do in America) in 2006 and its making him a far better bet to succeed in the transition to MLB. If Igawa were to pitch the way he pitched pre-2006 in the big leagues (aggressively with his straight 89 mph fastball), he wouldn’t have been very successful despite the great K/BB ratios. Preseason Igawa wasn’t as attractive of an option, but 2006 answered a lot of questions.

Indeed, his 2006 statistics support that analysis. In 2004 and 2005 combined, Igawa surrendered 1.26 homers per nine innings. In 2006, he allowed just 0.73 homers per nine innings. He also walked a career low 2.11 men per nine innings in 2006, which is an important sign as another knock on Igawa is that he has the sort of controlled wildness that could lead to a spike in his walk rate stateside. As for that “great K/BB ratio,” his career mark is 2.97 K/BB, which is excellent, but not quite “great” (Mike Mussina’s 3.58 career K/BB is a better example of “great”).

With those caveats, Igawa compares quite favorably to his infinitely more celebrated countryman, Daisuke Matsuzaka, as this quick tale of the tape shows:

(more…)

Our man Pete Abraham is back and has the highlights of yesterday’s Yankee action. It’ll be fun following the Baseball Winter Meetings next week via The Lo-Hud. Man, it seems as if Manny Ramirez might actually be traded this year. Go figure. With Rich Aurillia reportedly close to signing a deal with the San Francisco Giants, Andy Phillips may get another shot at backing up Giambi, after all. Elsewhere, according to the Globe and Mail, Greg Zaun will re-sign with the Blue Jays. Drag.

It’s official. Mike Mussina has signed a two-year deal to stay with the Yanks. Moose made a couple of few enemies recently, but Yankee fans should be happy to see him return. Considering the dough that’s being thrown around this winter, the Bombers got Mussina on the cheap.

One Yankeeography you are not likely to ever see is: 1974 and 1975, “The Shea Years.” On the surface those years are not remembered because the Yankees lacked real star power. Not that they didn’t have any stars–Murcer, Catfish, Bonds–but they didn’t have a lot of them. Mostly, they had grinders like White, Munson, Nettles, and Sweet Lou. It wasn’t until Billy Martin took over as skipper mid-way through the ’75 season that the Yankees got some real star power.

Still, they were both interesting seasons. Playing at Shea Stadium cost Murcer his career in New York; ironically–and for different reasons–it would eventually cost his replacement, Elliot Maddux, his career in pinstripes as well. In 1974, “The Band on the Run” Yankees made an entertaining run at the pennant. That was the year Nixon resigned as President and George Steinbrenner was convicted of making illegal campaign contributions. Sparky Lyle played virtually the entire season without having signed a new contract. He could have become Andy Messersmith but he settled on a new deal just as the leaves started to turn.

Though the team took a step back the following year when injuries just killed them, Gabe Paul kept busy building a winner, and the Yankees left the wildnerness of Queens poised for success. Dick Williams, Catfish, the Chambliss trade, oh, there were lots of compelling things about the Shea Stadium Yankees. Anyone out there remember seeing them play in Queens? If so, do tell…

The Yanks are looking for a solid back-up catcher this winter. As lovable and huggable as Sal Fasano was and is, he is likely not the man for the job. However, according to Newsday, the Bombers are interested in Gregg Zaun. We certainly know he can hit better than what the Yanks have had in recent years.

From part one of Steve Marantz’s interview with veteran newspaper columnist Bob Ryan:

You’ve got the shift in readership to the likes of Bill Simmons and all of the people on the Internet, who are a little less accountable than newspaper writers. But they’re all out there forcing us to re-evaluate where we fit in. It’s not the same and it won’t be the same – our influence is waning and eroding. Simmons is not doing what mainstream columnists do – he has no desire to speak to anyone in power – he observes and does what he does. There’s room for everybody – the access to information is staggering, imposing and intimidating. You’ve got Baseball Prospectus and all that number crunching by genius people dissecting baseball in ways mainstream writers never could – it’s very intimidating.

All you can do is use your access to bring thoughts to the public and to write as well as you can and hope that someone cares and that it matters. And how you say things is almost as important as what you’re saying. When that stops being the case we’ll be in trouble. Our business is under siege. Somebody starting out today should get to a dot.com immediately if not sooner – why spend your time in a dying industry? I’m grateful I’m much closer to the end of my career than the beginning. I’m grateful for the times I’ve lived through. I doubt the dot.comers will ever have the fun we had – because of the access and respect we got from the leagues – theirs will never be what ours was. They’ll never have the fun and the relationships we were lucky enough to have had. I can’t imagine starting out today.

…My pet peeve is a continual stream of one-sentence paragraphs. That is not writing in my book – I would reject it if I were an editor. My hero is Jay Greenberg (NY Post) because he’s the only guy who writes longer paragraphs than me. We stand alone in the lengths of our paragraphs. One-line paragraphs are not writing – it’s an easy device – it’s just illogical. Anything is okay on an occasional basis – I will lay one down at times but not 27 or 35 of them and you know there are people who do that.

Hot Stove season means I go to the movies again. I went to see “Borat” and “The Departed” over the last two days and found them both mildly enjoyable. “Borat” is a tight, well-made comedy but I didn’t love it (most everyone else in the theater seemed to enjoy it more than I did). I appreciate that it is mercifully short–shouldn’t all comedies clock in under 90 minutes?–but essentially the movie is put-on. Sacha Baron Cohen cons people, he puts one over on them and the results are supposed to show America as it really is. I’m not buying it. What I learned from this movie is that drunk frat boys can be sexist, bigoted creeps, that rednecks say the darndest redneck things and that born again Chritians are hopped-up Jesus freaks. I mean, tell me something I don’t know. There is something that is altogether too easy in all of this. The Borat character can be very funny in subtle, observational ways, but part of the comedy here is to be aggresive and hostile. It’s Reality TV-based satire, “Jackass” with subtext. Part of the thrill for audiences is seeing how far Cohen will go, how far will he push the envelope. He doesn’t disappoint, though he he clearly knows how far to go. For instance, he approaches a group of black kids in a tough neighborhood and in short time is able to disarm them. However, he isn’t rude or offensive with them as he is with easier, less threatening white targets.

Cohen is a modern version of Andy Kaufman, and his Borat displays a vulnerability and sensitivity that Kaufman rarely brought to his characters (with the exception of Latka). And it’s Borat’s vulernability that makes the movie winning–the audience let out a collective “aawwww,” when Borat was down-on-his-luck–they really liked him. “Borat” moves along at a brisk pace and it’s over before you know it. Ultimately, I just can’t get into making people look like morons (even if they are morons) for the sake of “exposing ignorance.” I think it’s mean and cheap. That’s just me, though. Cohen is convincing and he does have some fine moments. I’ll be hard-pressed to forget the naked-wrestling scene, which managed to go from hilarious to flat-out gross to daring and then hilarious again.

I expected “The Departed” to be good cheese and I wasn’t let down. I mean if Scorsese can’t make a gangster movie anymore then you know he’s really shot. He’s like The Rolling Stones in this one, the old rocker still doing his thing. In fact, the movie opens up with the Stones’ “Gimmie Shelter.” Unfortunately, Scorsese doesn’t have the same sly sense of humor that his old friend Brian DePalma used to have, and there is no joke, no irony to the use of a song that not only sounds like a song that Scorsese would use in a gangster movie but one that he has already used (“Good Fellas”). But that’s never been his strength, and otherwise, this an enjoyable ride. The movie moves by quickly and without much consequence but it is hammy fun. The young cast adds a level of self-consciousness to it all though. It’s like watching kids play cops and robbers. Marky Mark, Leonardo DiCaprio and Matt Damon grew up in a generation of American boys who idolized Scorsese’s tough guy movies. Now they get to play tough too. Marky Mark has the hammiest role of the three but I thought he was funnier than he was tough. Damon handles his role well, but I just couldn’t buy DiCaprio–who I enjoyed in “The Aviator” and “Catch Me if You Can”. Didn’t buy him as tough or tortured. Scorsese tries to add some emotional heft to the movie through DiCaprio’s character and it doesn’t stick. But the movie still clicks along so that DiCaprio doesn’t kill things. Unlike “Cape Fear,” another Hollywood turn by Scorsese, “The Departed” never becomes turgid.

The movie is too long and there is a boring subplot with a woman (in a thanklessly written role). But Nicholson is fun and his right-hand man is pretty scary. Alec Baldwin chews up some scenery too. In all, it’s like “Glengarry Glen Ross” meets “Oceans 11.” I’d say that it is one of Scorsese’s most entertaining movies in years. That said, the movie slipped out of memory quickly after I left the theater. Fun fluff but really it’s just the same old song.

Happy Holidays to everyone. Hope you and yours have a safe and satiating day of it. It’s raining, windy and cold here in New York. Still no word from the Yanks regarding Mike Mussina’s physical but that is likely just a formality. Hey, at least the Yankees aren’t going knuts spending big bucks on the likes of Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews, Jr. Good grief. Meanwhile, here is the final word on the AL MVP award, from our pal Steve Goldman.

But finally, let me leave you with this before you dig in to the bird mit all der fixings, football, and all that other soporific stuff. For me–and undoubtedly for many of you too–one thing to continue being thankful for are two of the most amazing websites of all-time: retrosheet and baseball-reference.com. Actually, they are in cohoots with each other these days, which is a beautiful thing. Here, check out the 2006 Yanks for example. You can click on Schedule, Transactions, Lineups, and Batting Orders. It’s a Nerd’s Delight, believe me. Talk about one-stop shopping. So to all the guys at B-Ref and Retrosheet, we owe you a great deal of thanks. Rock on. You’ve made the world a better place for seamheads near and far.

If there is any one man baseball players have a reason to give thanks to, that man is Marvin Miller. Murray Chass makes a case for Miller to be elected into the Hall of Fame. Color me cynical but I don’t have much faith that Miller will ever be given his due. That’s too bad, but it says more about the voters than it does about Miller or his tremendous impact on the game.