According to Tim Marchman in the New York Sun:
The selection, announced yesterday, of Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau as the American League’s Most Valuable Player is dumb and indefensible, good evidence of why no one takes baseball writers seriously.
It’s hard to be outraged when you have little faith in the voting process.
Ah, those RBI. They are the magic numbers that propelled Justin Morneau ahead of his more deserving teammates Johan Santana, and Joe Mauer–not to mention Derek Jeter–today as Minnie’s first baseman wins the AL MVP. Congrats to Morneau. Otherwise, this is a bum call.
For the uni-curious, check out a contribution of sorts I made to one of my essential daily reads, Paul Lukas’s Uni Watch Blog, but be sure to clear some time as the web site I brought to Paul’s attention could make the next few hours disappear very quickly.
I know that it is foolish to get too caught up in awards, but it would be really cool if DJ wins the AL MVP this afternoon. The only thing that would burn my ass is if they give it to Justin Morneau. If Joe Mauer or Johan Santana win it, that’s one thing as I think they are both deserving, but Morneau? That pick gets that Gas Face. Reading articles like this don’t exactly fill you with confidence in the voting process.
Robert Altman, the prolific, wildly uneven, but sometimes brilliant film director died last night at the age of 81. “McCabe and Mrs. Miller,” “M*A*S*H,” and “The Long Goodbye” are three of my favorite movies of all-time. Oh yeah, and “Nashville” was pretty formidable too, wasn’t it? Some found Altman’s inimitable style–which featured over-lapping dialogue, and meandering narratives–pretenteous, but in his best work, it was refreshing and poignant. Rest in Peace, Big Dog, and thank you for all the wonderful cinematic moments.
While we await the results of the AL MVP voting, allow me to share an idea that popped into my head while looking over yesterday’s MLB transactions, specifically these two headlines:
First of all, no, Moose’s deal still isn’t final, though pending a physical today it will be done by tomorrow. And, yes, he seems to have picked up an extra half-mil along the way.
Second, in this wild offseason that has already seen the Cubs go crazy on Alfonso Soriano ($136 million/8yrs) and the Red Sox bid $51,111,111.11 just to negotiate with Japanese import Daisuke Matsuzaka, the following deals all look mighty reasonable:
All relatively low-risk, short-term contracts that, despite the marquee names involved, are actually commensurate with the player’s level of production. What’s the common thread? The players involved range in age from Mike Mussina, who will be 38 in just a few weeks, to Jamie Moyer, who just turned 44.
There are two things I draw from this. First, the Yankees’ decision to take Mussina’s hometown discount rather than make an expensive long-term commitment to a younger league-average-at-best starter such as recent conversation pieces Ted Lilly or the execrable Gil Meche was not only wise, but has thus far been underappreciated. Second, Brian Cashman should follow his own example and go after the now-available Tom Glavine.
Glavine, who will be 41 in March, earned $7.5 million in 2006 with an additional $5.25 million deferred (restructured in May from an original $10.5 million). He also just picked up a cool $3 million via his buyout from the Mets. All of which suggests that he could easily be had for less than Mussina, say $18 to $20 million over two years, possibly with money deferred. Consider the pros to such a deal:
Now, it’s very possible that Glavine doesn’t want to leave the National League, so all of the above may be moot, but it’s certainly something that Brian Cashman should be exploring.
Meanwhile, the MVP announcement should come around 2pm EST. I don’t expect we’ll be disappointed.
Man, lil’ Soriano…can you say Jackpot? Dag, kid. Wonder how Lou will take to Sori’s penchant for Cadillacing triples into singles? Well, I guess so long as he pops 40+ jacks a year, it’s a problem he’ll just have to live with. As expected, Nomar is staying with the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Yanks are laying relatively low. Go figure.
You can find the outfielders here.
Chien-Ming Wang 3.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 1.46 K/BB, 33 GS
Although Mike Mussina actually pitched better over the course of the full season, Chien-Ming Wang emerged as the Yankees default ace in 2006, winning 19 games, and fulfilling all of the promise of his strong rookie season. Looking at Wang’s monthly splits, he decreased his ERA in each of the first four months of the season, topping out with a 3.03 mark in his five July starts and following that up with eight scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on August 2.
That August 2 start was the later part of a run of 19 consecutive scoreless innings, a streak that was broken when the White Sox scored in Wang’s 158th inning of the season. Though somewhat coincidental, that number is not insignificant. In 2005, Chien-MingWang set a career high by throwing 157 innings between triple-A, the majors, and the postseason. Over his first 157 innings of 2006, Wang posted a 3.55 ERA and allowed exactly one base hit per inning and a 1.25 WHIP. Over the remainder of his season and the postseason, Wang posted a 3.80 ERA and allowed 1.24 hits per inning and a 1.44 WHIP.
Curiously, Wang also increased his strike out rate by more than a K per game and dropped his walk rate below 2 per 9 innings after that 157th inning. But then Chien-Ming Wang’s strikeout rate is one of the more perplexing statistics in baseball at the moment. For all of his success in 2006, Wang actually experienced a decrease in his already alarmingly low strikeout rate from the year before. In fact, Wang’s rate of 3.18 K/9 was the lowest by a 19-game winner since 1980.
That year two men, the A’s Rick Langford and another Yankee sinkerballer you may have heard of named Tommy John, won 19 games while striking out 3.17 and 2.65 men per nine innings respectively. Each of these men resembles Wang differently. John was a Yankee hurler adept at inducing groundballs, getting 2.36* grounders for every fly in 1980. Langford, though also a sinkerballer, was less adept at the grounder, getting just 1.11* grounders for every fly that season and an only slightly higher ratio of ground balls in the surrounding seasons. Instead, Langford’s success in 1980 had more to do with his good fortune on balls in play (.259 BABIP).
As far as the reasons for his success, Wang is more John than Langford, as he had a fairly typical .293 BABIP in 2006, but boasted the major league’s third most extreme groundball rate (3.06 GB/FB). Rather, where Langford resembled Wang was in his relative youth (Langford was 28 in 1980, John was 37) and the sharp increase in the innings he pitched that season. In his first season as A’s manager, former Yankee skipper Billy Martin allowed Langford to throw 290 innings in 1980, an increase of nearly a third over his previous career high of 218 2/3 from the year before. Wang’s increase in 2006 was even greater, a whopping 43 percent more innings than he’d ever thrown before in a single season (including the postseason, Wang pitched 224 2/3 innings in 2006).
Langford managed to replicate his success in the strike-shortened 1981 season and suffered only a modest drop off in 1982. But despite the strike and his own less-stellar pitching saving him from cracking the 240 innings mark yet again, Langford’s elbow went under the knife after the 1982 season and he never again pitched a full season. While some might be tempted to use Wang’s extreme efficiency (only Greg Maddux and Roy Halladay threw fewer pitches per inning in 2006) to quell concerns over his workload, it won’t work. Wang was as even more efficient in 2005. Given Wang’s history of shoulder problems (labrum surgery in 2001 and his DL scare late last season), the Yankees should have been more cautious with his workload this past year.
If Wang’s shoulder remains intact in 2007, what should the Yankees expect from their young star? Consider the three other pitchers who induced more than three times as many ground balls as flies in 2006:
You know, I’ve been so consumed with work over the past month that I forgot to mention that Bronx Banter turned four years old back on November 7th. Here is a look at the first post I ever wrote here. Anyhow, I feel great going into Year Five. Cliff has been a valuable addition over the past two seasons, and I’m proud of the community of readers that keep coming back (both those who use the comments section and those who don’t). The whole pernt was to build a community in the first place so I feel as if the banter has been a success. I’ve always been more interested in starting up a dialogue than I have in necessarily being any kind of expert. While I feel that I’ve grown considerably as a blogger, I also know that I’ve learned so much from you all, and for that I am grateful.
I’ve spent much of the fall working on new writing assignments, including some freelance work for Variety, not to mention my gig with SI.com. I’m also contributing a few chapters to a forthcoming Baseball Prospectus book as well as editing a compilation of Pat Jordan’s best journalism. I’ve read over a hundred of Pat’s articles and profiles over the past six weeks, material which covers almost forty years. Picking out the best 30 or so is not easy but is a tremendous amount of fun–it’s like making a literary mix tape. In addition to selecting the pieces, I’m also contributing an introductory essay, and I’ve conducted a Q&A which will appear in some way, shape or form, at the back of the book.
Yo, when I started doing lengthy interviews with baseball writers back in 2003, Pat was one of the guys I most wanted to speak with. Now, I’m responsible for proposing, pitching and selling a project devoted to his best writing. I can’t tell you how stoaked I am about this. Yup, Bronx Banter has been a great launching pad for me, and it is still rewarding to blog about living in New York and following the Yankees with you guys.
Keep comin’ back. We’ll leave the light on.
The Yanks lost out on the Matsuzaka bidding as the Red Sox hope that they’ve landed another Pedro Martinez. However, the Bombers are this close to signing Mike Mussina to a two-year deal: reports from the Post and the News.
I would have loved to see Matsuzaka in pinstripes. Even though he’ll be pitching for Boston I still hope he does well in the majors. The Yankees did hold their own against Pedro, after all. When the Sox ink Matsuzaka he sure will make them a tougher team. That’ll give the Yankee-Sox rivalry more juice, which isn’t all bad.
According to all reports, the Red Sox have indeed posted the winning bid on one D. Matsusaka. How much they’ve spent is not official yet. I’ve read it could be anywhere between $38-$50 million.
According to Bill Madden, who loves to chide the Red Sox:
Once the number is confirmed with the official acceptance announcement tonight by Lions, it will be very interesting to hear commissioner Bud Selig’s response to his friend John Henry’s fiscal behavior in this matter. Imagine if this were the Yankees blowing open the market like this? (Sources say George Steinbrenner’s bid for Matsuzaka was around $30 million and somehow even The Boss won’t mind having lost this one considering what it would have cost him.)
In any case, Selig’s salary police are in for a rough winter. Regardless of how Boras’ negotiations with the Red Sox over Matsuzaka turn out, the first shot over the bow has been fired and starting with his other high-profile pitcher, Barry Zito, we can expect the dearth of quality starting pitching in baseball to create another wild spending spree. How quickly everyone will forget two years ago, when Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, Eric Milton and Russ Ortiz all cashed in on the coattails on the $7 million per year contract the Mets gave Kris Benson – and all proceeded to crap out.
Christina Kahrl believes that Matsusaka will be worth every penny.
Murray Chass thinks that this whole business says a lot about George Steinbrenner’s diminishing role as The Boss in the Bronx:
In the past, Steinbrenner would not have passed up an opportunity to comment caustically on what the Red Sox bid, especially with the evil empire label still in his mind. Those who have heard many of his comments can only shake our heads in sorrow and accept that an era has passed.
In Steinbrenner’s place, can we throw Lucchino’s comment back at him? Is there anything evil about what the Red Sox have done? Mind boggling perhaps, but not evil. Stunning perhaps, but not evil. Incredulous maybe, but not evil. Obscene, as an executive of another club said, but not evil.
What the Red Sox have done is forfeit their right to complain ever again about economic moves the Yankees make.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman likes the moves the Yankees have made early on:
But the tough part comes now. It begins in earnest tonight with the official announcement that the Red Sox have the winning bid to negotiate exclusively with Daisuke Matsuzaka. In addition, the Yanks strongly believe Boston is pushing hard to sign J.D. Drew to bat behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.
Thus, the Yanks could be witnessing their most bitter rival exerting its financial might with a quick 1-2, $100 million-plus statement. The Yanks’ bid on Matsuzaka was considerably lower and, privately, they feel Boston’s total outlay for the righty will be too high and could keep it from addressing other shortcomings. And – like many in the industry – the Yanks wonder if Drew, whose passion is often questioned, has the makeup for The Rivalry. Yankee GM Brian Cashman would only say, “My job is to try to attack our areas of need, period, and not worry about what is going on around us.”
Finally, on a minor note, Joe Girardi will return to the YES Broadcast booth next year.
According to the Baltimore Sun, the Yankees have traded Jaret Wright and cash to the O’s for relief pitcher Chris Britton:
Britton, a 23-year-old right-hander who was the Orioles’ eighth-round selection in the 2001 draft, was possibly the team’s second-best reliever as a rookie this past season behind closer Chris Ray . Britton was 0-2 with a 3.35 ERA and one save in 52 games.
However, team officials were concerned about Britton’s lack of command of a second pitch behind his fastball, and they also were worried about ongoing conditioning problems.
The Yanks have traded two veterans this week for young arms. This is what everyone has been asking for, right?
The Yankees have to decide today if they will pick up Jaret Wright’s option for 2007. Given the state of the Yankees’ rotation at the moment (the old and injured, the young and unproven, and Chien-Ming Wang), it seems well worth the extra $3 million to keep Wright around as insurance (the buyout on his $7 million option is $4 million). But the latest rumor is that the Yankees will do with Wright what they did with Gary Sheffield, pick up his option then flip him for prospects.
The rumored destination for Wright has been Baltimore, where he’d be reunited with Leo Mazzone much like Sheffield was reunited with Jim Leyland in Detroit. I wasn’t aware that Baltimore had any prospects (other than Nick Markakis, and the Yanks ain’t gettin’ him), but this is Jaret Wright we’re talking about after all. Credit Brian Cashman for a fantastic strategy here. With Sheffield he turned a player they were likely going to let walk away for nothing into three impressive young arms. If they do deal Wright, they’ll either have taken his $4 million buyout off the books and gotten live bodies in return for the favor, or, if they wind up sending cash with Wright, will likely wind up turning an oft-injured 30-year-old pitcher with a bad contract who averaged just a hair more than five innings per start in the third best season of his career last year into some young talent for no more than the $4 million that as of the moment is essentially a sunk cost.
In other news, the deadline for eligible players to file for free agency was yesterday, which means those players who have filed are free to negotiate with all thirty teams starting today. The Yankees who have filed are Miguel Cairo, Octavio Dotel, Tanyon Sturtze, Ron Villone, Bernie Williams, and Craig Wilson, as well as Wright and Mike Mussina, who’s $17 million option the Yankees will likely buyout for $1.5 million by Wednesday’s deadline. In addition to that group, Nick Green and Sal Fasano both elected to become free agents after being outrighted to triple-A last month. The Yankees also have a long list of six-year minor league free agents. You can find that list on the side-bar under “players.” Among the players listed are Aaron Small, Terrence Long, Ramiro Mendoza, Kris Wilson, Jorge DePaula, Ben Davis, Russ Johnson, Felix Escalona, Jesus Colome and Frank Menechino. Bubba Crosby, who was also on that list, signed a one-year major league deal with the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday. Several other sites have included Wil Nieves on that list as well, but as far as I can tell he’s still on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, and is thus ineligible for six-year minor league free agency.
Meanwhile, despite the rumors that circulated on Thursday that either the Rangers or Red Sox had come in with the top bid on Daisuke Matsuzaka, the actual results remain unannounced, as the Seibu Lions have until Tuesday to make their decision. (I feel like I should post that sentence on the sidebar until the decision is final.)
According to Jon Heyman, Sheff is headed to the Motor City.
* * *
Cliff here with some quick takes on the three pitching prospects the Yankees have obtained from the Tigers (from my comments to the previous post):
Humberto Sanchez is a big Dominican righty who went to high school in the Bronx. He’ll be 24 in May and cracked AAA for the first time late in 2006. He pitched well there in nine starts, but was shut down in late July with tenderness in his pitching elbow (a reoccuring problem as he’s made no more than 23 starts in any single season). His track record doesn’t wow you, but he has high strikeout rates and seems to have brought the wildness he suffered in the low minors under control. Last year he allowed just four homers in 123 innings over 20 starts thanks to a Chien-Ming Wang-like mid-90s sinker. Bottom line: he’s young, gets his Ks, is reducing his walks, keeps the ball in the park and on the ground, and is almost ready for the show. Assuming he passes his physical, he should be inserted right into the fifth starter equasion with Darrell Rasner and Jeffrey Karstens.
Kevin Whelan, apart from being hilarious as Mr. Subliminal back in the day, is a high-strikeout, high-walk righty reliever who was drafted by the Tigers out of Texas A&M last year. He’ll be 23 in January and flat out smoked the Florida State League (high A) this year to the point that his high walk rate almost didn’t matter. Anthony Claggett is a very similar sort, but with fewer walks, but also fewer Ks and six months younger. He didn’t allow a home run in 59 1/3 innings in the Midwest League (A-ball) in 2006. Basically these two are both like some sort of mix between Kyle Farnsworth and J. Brent Cox, with Whelan being more of the former and Claggett more of the latter. I expect both to advance quickly as long as they’re able to make some small improvements on their control.
Steve Swindal, Randy Levine, and Brian Cashman made a promotional appearance in Staten Island yesterday to announce the fact that the Yankees have bought their New York Penn League affiliate. As part of the deal, the Staten Island Yankees will host a Yankees Old Timers Game next summer and SI Yankees season ticket holders will have special access to both regular and postseason tickets in the Bronx. I’d be all over that if it weren’t for the fact that I just can’t get hyped over players in short season A-ball, no matter what their prospect status.
At any rate, the event gave reporters a chance to pepper the Yankee GM with questions, which is why you’ll read the same quotes from him in all of the papers this morning, or you could just cut to the chase and check out Peter Abraham’s handy summary.
Cashman didn’t say anything groundbreaking, though he did say that he considers Jason Giambi the team’s designated hitter and is in the market for a right-handed-hitting first baseman (the unspoken part of that being that Andy Phillips had his chance and blew it).
In the meantime, we can all continue to wear out the refresh buttons on our browsers waiting for news on Daisuke Matsuzaka or word of a Sheffield trade. Speaking of the latter, J.D. Drew just opted out of the remainder of his contract with the Dodgers, leaving L.A. with Andre Ethier as their best under-contract outfielder. Sheff tends to burn his bridges, but the Dodgers had a different manager, GM, and owner when he was last there. I’m not saying Sheffield is likely to head back to L.A., but the Dodgers could enter the discussion, further driving up his price. Which, of course, means we’ll have longer to wait before having any actual news on the Yankees’ most recent right-handed first baseman.
The next bit of news we’re likely to get will be the Yankees’ decision on Jaret Wright’s option, which must come no later than Sunday. Cashman didn’t tip his hand yesterday, but I’m in favor of the Yankees hanging on to Wright, largely because of the size of his buyout. Wright’s option is for $7 million, but the Yankees will have to pay $4 million of that to make him go away. That $4 million is a sunk cost, which means that keeping Wright really only costs the Yankees $3 million, which is a perfectly fair price for the sort of performance he turned in last year (27 starts, a roughly league-average ERA). Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, Cory Lidle, Jason Johnson, Gil Meche, and Carlos Silva are just a few of the pitchers who earned similar, but larger amounts in 2006, none of whom posted a higher ERA+ than Wright.
If you rank the pitchers the Yankees have under contract for next year by career major league starts, the fourth name on the list–after Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Chien-Ming Wang–is Kyle Farnsworth. Rank them by major league starts in 2006 and the list is Johnson, Wang, then Jeffrey Karstens with six. And Johnson just had back surgery. Yes, Mike Mussina is likely to join that group shortly, and with Karstens, Darrell Rasner, Philip Hughes, Tyler Clippard, and, heck, even Sean Henn in the queue the Yankees have a handful of rookies who could outperform Wright in 2007. But for $3 million it seems silly not to hold on to a live arm that, if nothing else, could hold a spot for Johnson’s rehab or a few warm up starts for Hughes in Scranton during April and May, then bringing a useful bench player or reliever in a trade. Heck, if the Matsuzaka deal pans out, Cashman just might get more for Sheff and Wright than Pat Gillick did for Abreu and Lidle, despite the fact that Gillick was dealing better players with more leverage.
Rest in Peace, Johnny Sain.
Baseball America lists the Yankees top ten prospects. Thanks to Steve Lombardi for the link.
It’s a slow news day in Yankeeland as we wait on all things Sheffield, Mussina and Matsuzaka.
In the meantime, I ain’t got nuthin’ for ya man, so here’s something dopey to chew on:
Pepe on Torre.
Oh, my bad, I almost forgot. In case anyone missed it, check out Brian Gunn’s fine recap of the World Serious over at THT.
I turned to Emily late last week and said, “I miss baseball.”
“Me too. Things feel so empty without it.”
I’m fortunate enough to have a woman in my life who not only tolerates my passsion with baseball but who thoroughly enjoys it herself. (Is it any wonder we’re getting hitched?) Em usually catches the first part of the game on the radio during her drive home; if I come home late, nine times out of ten, she’ll be sitting there on the couch with the game on, waiting for me. You know the old Weaver saying: “This ain’t football, we do this every day.” Baseball is a lifestyle.
But now there’s nothing, and we’re adjusting to our winter routine–cooking shows, channel surfing, Netflix. We actually watch a lot of movies in the winter, and find oursevles spending evenings watching no TV at all (perish the thought, I know). I have only a casual interest in hoops at this stage in my life and I find pro football boring (I did catch portions of the Colts, Patriots game last night, however, and around all the penalities and instant replay challenges, thought it was an exciting game). One the one hand, the break is okay. We get to catch up on other things in life. I sleep better at night when there is no game to replay over and over in my head. The other day, I thought, “Wow, there is a lack of neurotic tension in my life during the off-season.” That can’t be all bad, right? Still, that’s part of the emptiness.
How many days ’til pitchers and catchers again?
