No one expected the Orioles to blow into the Bronx and take the first two games of this weekend’s three-game set, handing the Yankees just their third series loss of the second half. The O’s have done not just that, but won those two games by a combined score of 17-7. It seems the Yankee bats are in a bit of a mini-slump, with the team averaging just 3.5 runs per game over it’s last four contests, and unlike the final two games of the Rays’ series, the Yankees haven’t gotten the pitching performances they needed to make those paltry seven runs stand up.
Nonetheless, the Yanks are still 12-5 (.706) on the season against the Orioles, and 40-15 (.727) in the second half, and they have CC Sabathia going in today’s finale looking to help avoid an embarrassing sweep at the hands of Jeremy Guthrie. CC is seven starts into a dominant late-season run (5-0, 1.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.05 K/9, 5.73 K/BB, 7 1/3 IP/GS, all Yankee wins).
Guthrie has had a nice little run of his own over his last five starts (3-1, 1.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.75 K/BB, 6 2/3+ IP/GS), his one loss in that stretch coming against Andy Pettitte and the Yankees in Baltimore on the final day of August.
Oh, nice rope, Alex.
Nice rope.
The Great Cano.
I'll carry over the discussion from the last thread (a pretty fascinating discussion, by the way, Rich--thanks for indulging!).
The topic: will Robbie Cano bethe next Yankee hitter to 3000 hits (after Jeter, presumbably). Robbie currently has career 851 hits with about 20 games left in his age 26 season. I'll guestimate that he finishes the season with 875 hits.
The "average" 3000-hit guy (if such exists) finished his age 26 season with 980 hits. However, there has been a lot of variation, with some 3000-hit guys proving to be fairly late starters. Here's the list:
Name, Hits, Hits age 26
Rose, 4256, 899*
Cobb, 4189, 1600*
Aaron, 3771, 1309*
Musial, 3630, 995*
Speaker, 3514, 1151*
Yaz, 3419, 1012*
Anson, 3418, 708
Wagner, 3415, 649
Molitor, 3319, 899
Collins, 3315, 1040
Mays, 3283, 903
Murray, 3255, 997
Lajoie, 3242, 1404*
Ripken, 3184, 1079*
Brett, 3154, 1082*
Waner, 3152, 840*
Yount, 3142, 1363*
Gwynn, 3141, 770
Winfield, 3110 , 796
Biggio, 3060, 624
Henderson, 3055, 1071*
Carew, 3053, 845
Brock, 3023, 638
Palmiero, 3020, 805*
Boggs, 3010, 531
Kaline, 3007, 1390*
Clemente, 3000, 1062*
An asterisk means that the player led the league in hits at least once by his age 26 season.
Some interesting things here, I think. It looks tome like there are two paths to 3000 hits. The first is the "no doubt" path, where the player accumulates 1000+ hits by age 27, and usually leads the league in hits once or more). The question for these players is, barring catastrophic injury, how far above 3000 will they end up.
The second path is the "play until 40" route: these players may have been late starters (like Boogs, whose first season was age 24) or late bloomers (like Molitor), or they simply played a l-o-n-g time at a consistent level (Winfield). The question for these players is will they last long enough to barely make 3000 in their last season or two (usually age 40 or so). In other words, the issue is less their career arc but more the happenstance of playing forever.
Cano's estimated 875 hists by the end of this season would place him behind about 17 of the 3000-hit players, which is not too bad. He has yet to lead the league in hits or have a really big hit season Unless he happens to stay extremely healthy and linger until he's forty, he would have to start ripping off a series of very high hit seasons over the next six years or so.
My verdict: very, very slim chance that he makes it to 3000.
What say y'all?
[3] Oh, man, I don't know! I don't even know how the can opener works! (That's a line from Crimes and Misdemeanors, I think: "How the hell do I know why there were nazis, I don't even know how the can opener works!")
Seriously, I think it's way too early even to think about, simply because of the chance of injury. Barring serious injury, I'd say he's a good bet, simply on the strength of his hitting style: even if his body begins to fail, his raw batsmanship should be sustainable and count for a lot. Then again, he's not the fastest guy in the world.
OH, Melkius!!
Anyway, I'll be happy just to see a couple years of consistency from Robbie, then we can talk.
Oh, damn it.
CC's getting rocked.
[4] Yeah, Robbie needs to be consistent for me to think he'll have a shot.
[4] Of course it's too early, but fun to banter about nonetheless! All of this Jeter talk has gotten me thinking the last few days about the anatomy of 3000-hit players (and, of course, of the elusive 4000-hit players).
Oooh, beautiful hit, Derek!
That was pretty.
[7] Yes, it is fun to banter about nevertheless.
Holy fuck, what a catch!
Asshole.
Damn. Nice catch.
God, how did he not injure himself on that?
That was amazing.
[9][10][11] So was it really a great catch? Sterling had already gone into his "it is high, ..." routine and then had to backtrack. Then too, on the prior hit by Jeter he announced that "it will go for extra bases" only to be forced to backtrack, temporarily, on the play at 2B ("here is the throw, he iiiiiiiiiissssssss.......safe...a double...").
[12] Yes it was very good. I thought for sure it was going to be off the wall.
Extra laps for you tomorrow, Damon.
Gee, I have to agree with Michael Kay. This is not a bunting situation.
[12] He ran full steam, a long way, lept, hauled in the ball, and bounced off the wall. It required a great deal of finesse to make that play.
Man, Joe is in his face.
Fuck, Joe's looking a little deranged.
Gudday...
Just tuning in.
Looks like a week of shitting pitching...
and the not-to-unusual poor RISP.
Joe AND ARod thrown out for arguing balls and strikes? WTF?!?
Sox on a roll. Hope the Yankees aren't in vacation mode yet.
I wonder if the Yanks are slacking a bit, since they don't have that much to play for any more. At least until the post-season.
Well done, Hideki!
Ramiro Pena - your new cleanup batter
finally - CC gets his 1st strikeout...in the 7th inning!!!
I love Leiter. He'd make an amazing little league coach. Such enthusiasm for the game.
Stop laughing, Kay, the guy's trying to *teach* you something.
[21] Good Lord, really? That was number one?
Damn.
I was just marvelling that he's still in the game, given the roughness of the outing. It's great that even on a bad day he's still around in the seventh, and with a lead, no less.
Why did Hinske replace A-Rod for half and inning, only to give way to Peña? Why not go straight to Peña?
Boy, the Rays have really just rolled over and died.
[3] i have followed most of your Robbie/3,000 discussion and appreciate all the greats points! for the record, i don't think he'll get there, either. but here's one other aspect you might wanna think about...
how many times will Robbie come up with men on 2nd and/or 3rd, 'coz there's NO way he's getting any hits in those situations!!! ; )
Nicely turned, boys.
All around.
Nice stretch by Teix.
[25] No kidding.
[25] Ha-ha! Maybe he should bat lead-off, in that case?
ooh, that DP was huge, swinging at the 1st pitch. otherwise, Roberts was a stolen base waiting to happen.
Hughes-Mo?!
[23] CC = "quality" game! well, one of those runs was 'coz Damon's a bonehead. i don't like his 4:1 BB/K ratio today, but overall, i'll take it.
[24] yeah, the Rays are disappointing me. i really hope Texas sweeps there double dip today, but they'll have to face King Felix in one of the games...
[28] that would give him one surefire AB w/ no duckies per game. i say do it, and he's a lock for 4,000 hits! ; )
Here's my man Phil. Hey, do eighth innings guys really receive an official 'B' or blown save for coughing up the lead in the eighth? Kay just referred to Hughes' first blown save.
But that makes no sense: if the eighth inning guy can only get a 'hold' but no save, then shouldn't there be a separate stat for blown holds?
(This is all so preposterous, I agree, but as long as we have these stats, they should be applied with some semblance of rigor.)
[31] Hey, do eighth innings guys really receive an official ‘B’ or blown save for coughing up the lead in the eighth?
Yes.
Any time you enter the game in a save situation (three run lead or less, or the tying run on base) and you give up the lead, its a BS. For the Eighth Inning Guy™ and other middle relievers, that means they will collect a number of blown saves throughout the year, but will usually never get credit for any saves, since they yield to the Closer™.
A-Rod up w/ runners on the corners, nobody out. oh wait, it's Ramiro Pena... : /
God, how many times can we foul out in one game?
Hideki!
Big day for Godzilla!
Been out doing yard work, looks like I picked the right time to come back in for a refreshing beverage.
Matsui-San!!!
he's been pretty awsome! : )
[31] But that makes no sense: if the eighth inning guy can only get a ‘hold’ but no save, then shouldn’t there be a separate stat for blown holds?
But technically they CAN get a save, if they are left in for the eighth and ninth. Plus, if they blow the lead in 8th, then the closer never has a chance to get a save. Look at it this way, if one accepts the premise of a save to begin with, then (like wins) there can be only one save per game. Whoever loses the lead then gets "credit" for the blown save.
I don't believe that Holds are officially recognized stats. But in any case, a hold is the equivalent of an assist in basketball or hockey. If you make a great pass but the shooter then misses a wide open shot, you don't get credit for the assist. You can't have a blown hold without losing the lead, which thus means no save. So a blown hold IS a blown save. A hold is merely the "assist" to the save, which is really an "assist" to a win.
[36] mmm, beer! ; )
Hey, now Hughes can finish the game for a Save®, or hand the ball over to someone for no save, because it is no longer a Save Situation® !!!
[39] Beer + Lawnmower = Summer Follies!
[27] hey weeping, according to Petey's Sports Bureau:
UPDATE, 3:44 p.m.: That is the fifth time in 285 career starts CC has gone at least seven innings and struck out only one batter. It last happened in 2004
[32] Yeah, I still don't like it. If it's genuinely a save situation, then they ought to receive an S rather than an H for successful completion of their appointed task, which is, of course, to get three outs in the eighth inning without coughing up the lead.
Whatever.
Oh, and btw, a save situation only applies for the 7th-9th, right? And what about a hold? Can anyone get a hold at any time, like in the second?
You know what, the more I think about this, the more ludicrous it all becomes. Perhaps we should enlist the assistance of a Talmudic scholar.
In any event, the H is a laughing-stock of a stat, and that's all I'll say about that.
[39] Actually beer is later, drinking an Arnold Palmer
[40] true! and great points in [38]. Mo hasn't pitched since Tuesday. but i say, give the man another day. there's an important game vs. the Halos tomorrow. then again, if we need him tomorrow, he could be rusty. hmmm, what to do, what to do...
at least GI Joe's outta the game; perhaps the decision isn't his! i'm sure he'll send word from the clubhouse though...
Hey, this is fun!
[38] Yeah, yeah, I get it. I still don't like it.
Meanwhile, nice to see so many nice line drives today.
"Well, but they can bunt!"
ahhha h ha hah ah ah h!
Leiter's hilarious!
[44] nice! i got back on the beer this weekend : )
Hey, who's managing, btw?
[42] That's just great. I love a pitcher (like Andy) who can still prove valuable on a bad day. It means so, so much.
Man, the hits just keep on coming.
Score Truckin' Good Times!
Tex finally comes thru today and we've scored 8 in the "all-important" 8th!
who pitches the 9th for us? Towers? Dunn? Edwar?
[49] Good beer I hope/
[50] Score Truck driver.
[43] No, I believe anyone can get a save so long as he finishes a game for the winning pitcher. Thus, a reliever who enters the game in the sixth inning could get the save so long as he finishes the game.
Now, I am unsure of how the save rule works for games where the starter does not last five innings. In those cases, the scorer can award the win to whoever is the most effective. In theory, a starter could go one inning and get pulled with the lead, the second pitcher comes in and, say, completes the second inning., and then a reliever finishes the game (seven innings). In theory, the scorer could award the second pitcher the win, so in theory the third pitcher could get a save (finishing the game with three or more innings of relief).
In practice, the scorer would probably award the win to the guy who pitched the most (the third pitcher in my hypothetical).
OK, the game is out of hand. I hope Hughes picks up a save the old fashioned way (two innings)...but I'm going to watch the NY Giants now.
that's 20 hits today. 3 apiece for Jetes, Godzilla and future 2nd Yankee to 3,000 hits!
I asked before who's managing because I don't get why everyone's still in this game.
Why is Jorgie still playing? And Hideki?
[57] Heh heh heh he heh!
[54] always good beer! i drink Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. exclusively - i should have a freaking endorsement! ; )
hairston at 3rd. Bruney on the Bump. might be a save situation, after all... : ~
Oh, God.
Can Bruney simply not throw a strike?
of course, BB walks the leadoff man. asshole.
frankie brains in for Po (and a billion other defensive substitutions.)
2 more outs...
Bruney fucking sucks my ass.
aaaaand, another walk... : /
Barring injury...why the hell is whoever is managing making pitching changes in the ninth with a TEN RUN LEAD?
edwar coming in to give up a 3-run job...
[65] maybe he gets a cut of the commercial costs?! ; )
[65] Because see [63].
Sorry to say the only bit of this game I've see is Bruney walking a guy with 2 outs and a ten run lead before being removed by Pena. It's like watching a juggler who can't juggle. Oy!, But, just let him finish for Mo's sake!
btw. Do Girardi get tossed?
10 balls, 8 strikes for Brew-ney.
So I take it Bruney gets to go home after September.
Oh man, they're still showing the Saints - Lions game. 1:50 left to play, saints up 45-27, why inflict the rest of this game on us.
changeup, 4-seam, changeup.
good win. that's 17 for CC.
+10 run diff.
halos/chi-sox knotted at deuce...
[3, MP] Awesome stuff. I view Cano like my dog. And I mean that in the sincerest way possible. I love him to death but he drives me fu#$ing crazy at times. Plus he can be lazy and sleeps too much. But, I've seen him make some amazing plays in the yard and he's effortless. My dog can't hit, though. : D Cano is having a sick year, I know is OBP is bollocks, but I still think he's got better days ahead. He's the most interesting man in the world. lol.
Could the Rays possibly have choked more?
Not sure I'd say the Rays choked. Last year their starting was very good and their pen was better ... which covered some only so-so seasons from guys people thought (then) were heading upwards not downwards or leveling off (Pena, Upton, Crawford). This year the starting slipped and the pen slipped worse ... it'll wear on a team.
I know I've asked this before, but wouldn't it have been nice to take a flyer on someone like Pedro over the constant stream of never wases and Sidney Ponsons that have streamed through the Bronx in the last few years?
[77] You mean like taking a chance on Andy Pettitte for an extra year or two, or trying to milk an extra half-year out of Roger Clemens? Or giving an formerly effective reliever coming back from injury a shot, like Octavio Dotel?
That sort of flyer?
the Rangers had a tough task tonight in King Felix, but now face a much tougher task - a 4-game defecit for the Wild Card. i guess it's still possible, but it sure ain't lookin' good. i really hate the Shit Sox. i wish soooo hard they would miss the playoffs, but they're looking quite good right now. as difficult a time as we have playing the Halos, i can only hope they'll knock Boston outta Round 1...
Thanks, thelarmis; if it wasn't for your timely remarks tonight, I doubt I'd have known whether we even won or not >;)
[78] No, not really. Roger Clemens, 3000 years old or not, was coming off two of the better seasons of his career. Andy Pettitte, if nothing else, had just given the organization 204 innings of average-ish baseball. I don't think either one of them would be considered a scrap heap pickup or a low risk high reward signing.
And then there's Dotel, a man that demanded Tommy John Surgery against the wishes of his team and the advice of James Andrews and Lewis Yocum. That's encouraging. But you're right, it was the Yankees taking a chance on someone who could actually help the team, like trying Pedro potentially would.
But over the last five years, the Yankees have been more then content to go after awful pitchers that no one wants. Scott Erickson a full seven years after he was of any value to anyone. Brett Tomko. Sergio Mitre. Josh Towers. Jim Brower. Darrell May. Sidney Ponson. Sidney Ponson. That's not even counting bad pitchers we grabbed and never brought up, like Eric Milton and Russ Ortiz.
I think the last guy that fits my criteria of "former star fallen on hard times" that the Yankees tried was Al Leiter. And I was all for trying with him. I'd much rather watch Al Leiter fail than Alex Graman. I'd have much rather watched Pedro Martinex get bombed than Sergio Mitre do the same.