The Yankees’ magic number for clinching a playoff berth is three. That means they could do it this weekend in Seattle, though it might require a little help from, ironically, the Angels, who are in Arlington facing the Rangers, the team whose inability to catch the Yankees would thus guarantee New York a return to the postseason. The most likely scenario would have the Yankees and Angels both taking two of three from their lesser opponents, putting the Yankees in the odd position of arriving in Anaheim on Monday with warm feelings about the Halos.
Looking at the pitching matchups in Seattle, the Yankees would seem to have the middle game, which pits CC Sabathia against the unfortunately named Doug Fister, in hand. Joba Chamberlain seems to finally be rounding back into shape after posting this combined line in his last two Rules-shortened starts: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K. That gives the Yankees more than a good chance against reclamation project Ian Snell on Sunday. One has to assume the Angels will at the very least avoid a sweep in Arlington. That’s three games. Of course, if the Yankees want to do it in style, they’ll start with an surprisingly unlikely win tonight.
A.J. Burnett has exceeded my expectations this year in exactly one way: he has made every single one of his starts. Tonight he’ll make his 30th start for just the third time in his 11-year career. That is worthy of a certain level of praise (Carl Pavano made four fewer major league starts in his four years as a Yankee combined), but the quality of those starts of late has been anything but praiseworthy. Just two of Burnett’s last five starts have been quality starts and over his last nine he’s gone 1-5 with a 6.14 ERA. Worse yet, he’s trending in the wrong direction. Four of his six starts in August were quality, but only one of his three in September has been and in those last five he’s posted a 7.67 ERA in part due to the eight home runs he has allowed in those outings.
Burnett hasn’t seen the Mariners yet this year, but shouldn’t find them much of a challenge given that they’re the second-worst offense in baseball and the only team in the junior circuit to have scored less than four runs per game on the season. What will be challenging is his mound opponent, Felix Hernandez.
Still just 23, King Felix seems to have finally become a pitcher worthy of his nickname. Despite the punchless M’s offense, Hernandez has already set a career high with 15 wins (against just five losses). More importantly, he has decreased his homer rate for the third year in a row, corrected the spike his walk rate experienced last year, and is striking out batters at a tick about his previous top rate (he’ll surpass 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career with seven more Ks). He has also benefited from the M’s improved defense, posting a BABIP below .300 for the first time since his rookie half season in 2005 and leading the league in fewest hits per nine innings. That last is a product of both his own effectiveness and the gloves behind him.
The Yankees have added first baseman Juan Miranda to the major league roster. With Jorge Posada serving a three-game suspension that finishes on Saturday, Jose Molina catches and bats ninth tonight behind the usual suspects. Melky Cabrera is in center despite Brett Gardner’s recent resurgence (six for his last 11 with two doubles).
Seattle Mariners
2009 Record: 76-71 (.517)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 68-79 (.463)
Manager: Don Wakamatsu
General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Home Ballpark (Park Factors): Safeco Field (96/97)
Who’s Replacing Whom:
- Bill Hall replaces Russell Branyan (DL)
- Randy Messenger (minors) replaces Sean White (DL)
- September additions: 1B Mike Carp, 3B Matt Tuiasosopo, C Adam Moore, RHPs Brandon Morrow, Carlos Silva (DL), LHP Jason Vargas
25-man Roster:
1B – Mike Carp (L)
2B – Jose Lopez (R)
SS – Josh Wilson (R)
3B – Adrian Beltre (R)
C – Kenji Johjima (R)
RF – Ichiro Suzuki (L)
CF – Franklin Gutierrez (R)
LF – Bill Hall (R)
DH – Ken Griffey Jr. (L)
Bench:
R – Mike Sweeney (1B)
L – Jack Hannahan (IF)
L – Michael Saunders (OF)
L – Ryan Langerhans (OF)
R – Rob Johnson (C)
R – Matt Tuiasosopo (3B)
R – Adam Moore (C)
R – Jack Wilson (IF)*
Rotation:
R – Felix Hernandez
R – Doug Fister
R – Ian Snell
L – Ryan Rowland-Smith
R – Brandon Morrow
Bullpen:
R – David Aardsma
R – Mark Lowe
R – Miguel Batista
R – Chris Jakubauskas
R – Shawn Kelley
R – Randy Messenger
L – Lucas French
L – Jason Vargas
L – Garrett Olson
R – Carlos Silva
15-day DL: 1B – Russell Branyan (herniated disk)
60-day DL: LF – Endy Chavez (ACL), LHP – Erik Bedard (shoulder surgery), R – Sean White (shoulder tendonitis), LHP Cesar Jimenez (shoulder and biceps tendonitis), LHP – Ryan Feierabend (TJ)
Typical Lineup:
L – Ichiro Suzuki (RF)
R – Franklin Gutierrez (CF)
R – Jose Lopez (2B)
L – Ken Griffey Jr. (DH)
R – Adrian Beltre (3B)
R – Bill Hall (LF)
L – Mike Carp (1B)
R – Kenji Johjima (C)
R – J. Wilson (SS)
*The ever-fragile Jack Wilson has a bruised heel and was on crutches earlier in the week.
Thanks as always for setting the stage, Cliff.
45 minutes til coffee and cheesecake (courtesy of the in-laws who arrived today) - gotta time my sugar and caffeine boost perfectly, then it's bring on the late start!
Bah, I hate the late starting west coast games. Gotta get up early tomorrow for an Aikido seminar, so it's early to bed for me.
Good night all.
and this is precisely the kind of information that petey is so good at providing; hopefully somebody else will get this too us:
[3] ugh too = to, and sounds like good news on andy, fingers are definitely crossed since to my knowledge there is no alds schedule the yanks can pick that allows for just 1 pitcher
[3] Good news. If good AJ shows up tonight maybe the panic meter will go back do Defcon 3. I missed the Petey love-fest earlier. I think there's probably someone itching to do what he does but even better.
I'd be happier to see Texas sweep the Angels, and we can clinch in LA.
Tell me whyyyy you cried. And why you liiieeed to me!
Nice hit, Derek.
Kenyy. Cone. King Felix. AJ. TGIF. Jeter on1st base, So far so good. : )
Oooh, Damon!
Quick wrists!
[9] :)
GRD. Score 'em both now.
Anyone know why Kim is pinch hitting for Waldman? Her voice is a bit tough to bare.
Damn Straight. Still need that other guy.
Alex is really hitting everything square these days.
He's really locked in.
[13] Really?
I'll have to tune in to check that out!
[13] suzyn is off for the jewish holiday
[9] yeah to coney and singleton - but boo that it is one of those darn late night games
[16] Really. It's odd. Sterling and Kim don't have the timing down yet, but given that it's still the first inning, it's understandable. Kim gave the batting average against, a stat sterling doesn't much like (or understand). There was a long pause. Can't wait to see if she tries it again tomorrow (Sterling said she would be announcing all weekend).
[17] Thanks.
I'm sorry, .353 is *never* overrated.
Maybe I'm some kind of medieval superstitious buffoon, but really, I'll take this guy to start my team any day of the week.
If Ichiro started his career in Seattle he would already have near 3000 hits. He'd be Rose's biggest threat I do believe.
Cano > Pat Kelly. : ).
[21] I mean, his talent is ridiculous. I don't understand on what planet such a player is considered overrated.
[22] :)
[24] It's all good . : D Is it me or has Jorge missed AJ's last 6 starts? Day games after nights games, Resting thumb, suspensions. etc.. etc.....
[13] [17] That's another PeteAbe nugget of info, that Waldman was out for the weekend and Jones (and Sweeny Murti) were in.
[21] Undoubtedly.
Don't look now, but Nathan is about to slam the door shut on Detroit, and pull the Twins to within 3 in the Central. It would be fun if that was a real race down the stretch.
Go Twinkies!!!
Wow. Nice.
How the heck did Tex catch Ichiro?
That wasn't so nice.
Oh, Melky.
Misplayed.
Take thatl Ichirol Over-Rated! : D Get a stick and kill it, Melky. Bollocks.
I did think he was going to get there.
Oh, damn it.
That's 3 hits in a row.
b doubel o. Shite.
[29] Caught him napping, really. I think he was thinking about going, changed his mind, and fell over his own feet.
Is this Burnett's everything falls apart inning, then he pitches a no hitter for the next 4.
[38] I hope so. Might was well get it over with early.
39 It would be good if he keeps it tied, Felix has been awfully good this year.
Texas lost
Yea Pete Abe mentioned earlier that Hideki has tied for the most HR's by Yankee DH in a season. Almost breaks it there.
Godzilla. Just missed it. Where the hell will he be in May?
41 magic number 2?
Gutierez had that the whole way too.
Nice Catch.
Seattle's D pretty good.
With that kind of D Seattle has themselves a nice CF.
Big ballpark
Damn. That's 2 smashes for zero runs. : (
Is it the park, the Yankees seemed to be hitting it pretty good there. Sounded nice of the bat.
I just told my kid about Mantle because he received number 7 for fall league.
I got all excited and told him that #7 was a special number.
Speaking of which, we have a game at 9 tomorrow morning! How uncivilized is that?
Minnesota beat Detroit tonight. That could be interesting
[53] Could be, but let's see if Pavano can beat Verlander.
Is the Yankees magic number 2 or 3?
I don't disagree with Cone. I always thought 6 IP 3 R was lame.
[55] I believe it's three.
According to Abraham (I'm going to miss saying that) Bruney is now wearing 99.
That should solve everything.
57 Isn't it 2 now that Texas lost tonite?
[59] Oops, forgot about that result :)
[59] Lorenz said three though.
61 Cliff has a link in the Post that the number was actually 3 before tonight's games because LAA and Texas play each other during the final stretch. So now that Texas lost it is 2. But that may not be recognized by the media.
Atta boy, JD!
Damon wants to make it 1.
Seattle has very good pitching and defense they just need a little more hitting. Johnny scores, Yankees lead.
Cone LOVES Fangraphs!. : O And Criteria.
Beltre is pretty........pretty good.........
King Felix thru 6 only 69 pitches, is Joba watching?
Good on Ya' AJ!
Kenny reading a promo for suites available at Yankee Stadium, anyone interested?
Good double, Swish!
No pinch hitter?
What an unpleasant commercial
73 Those NYS smoking commercials don't mess around.
Molina stinks.
As long as Cone doesn't say the words "pitcher abuse points" I'm pro StatsCone
[76] PAP were the red flag on Javy Vazquez before he came here.
AJ!
Twice in one game. Ichiro is great, but that is bad baseball.
[77] Say the phrase out loud and tell me it isn't the dorkiest thing you've ever heard.
Ichiro = dumb-ass.
Wow. Ichiro looked safe to me, but still. Wow.
I wonder when the last two times Ichiro has been picked off are, let alone twice in one night
[80] Even more than Batting Average on Balls in Play? ;)
[84] Much worse. Now, if you pronounce the acronym (BAH-PEEP) I reserve the right to reconsider.
More runs...
Nice play Arod.
Here's to good Mo Jo! And AJ.
Good game for AJ even if it was against the Mariners hitting. I'll take Hughes- Mo for the win Jack.
Quick inning.
Hughes'll do.
Hughes is superb, let's go Mo.
Hey Hanahan, you're wife's a D%$#. Slap Shot. : D
93 Nice
Men and boys
Keep punching 'em out. WORD.
Mo K # 1000!
Oh no
Mo vs Ichiro
Tonight on Syfy
Damn
Well that was a fucking disaster
Fuck you Ichiro.
FM
Well, THAT sucked.
blech.
Six games on the Red Sox. If Brian Bruney makes an appearance before they win the division, Girardi should be fired.
Great AB and approach by Ichiro!.
Not even a strike.
Buggerfuck.
who was it claiming ichiro was overrated in an earlier post? Ouch. That was gorgeous. First pitch, no doubt.
Singleton was stressing the saves streak so much that I thought he might jinx it, but when I saw the terrible hitters coming up, I thought it wouldn't matter
Mo had to blow one sometime. Got it out now before the PS.
I thought Mo threw a meatball over the plate. I still blame Molina for the DP.
107 I think that was sarcasm earlier.
Man, who would have thought it'd turn out like that after the backwards Ks
It's tough when Mo loses one, it happens so rarely.
Ah the overrated Ichiro strikes again. Rivera was pitching great too ... Second-guessing but knowing what a clever fellow Ichiro is maybe they should have started on the outside of the plate? Anyway not a terrible loss as far as walk-offs vs your team goes, at least it wan't a meatball - Ichiro just got over on Mo-lina. It happens. Too bad for Burnett - time to change player of the game, mayhap?
Well speaking of whom, I'll take the positive in Burnett's fine performance, hopefully a sign of things to come!
[111] I thought it was a response [20] to something said on tv...
Guiterez (sp) caught the same ball that the melky and damon missed in the ninth, which is too bad.
Games like this are why you should never punt games. Girardi threw out the D team after the Yankees swept the Rays, and the Yankees lost three of five to miserable ballclubs.
Now they've lost four of six and the Red Sox are charging.
[115] Swisher missed it in the 9th.
115 You're right about Gutierrez, he might've had that.
...tired...must sleep. Good night all, Yanks'll get'em tomorrow.
Crazy to think the Yanks were 9 games up on the Sox. I shut the door right there, myself. But if it weren't that, 6 up would still seem pretty damn good. Okay, five in the loss column, but not bad. As long as the Yankees can win this series and hopefully the next, we're in good shape.
This is a second guess, but Freddy Guzman probably could have played RF. He's fast, so I assume he's good defensively.
Joe Girardi strikes again. The manager had two chances to help the team win this game and in both cases he completely screwed up. With
Molina at the plate and runners on the corner, it was the perfect time to either try a squeeze or at least put Melky in motion. The chance of a Molina DP was high. So, what does Girardi do...nothing. Double play, inning over and an opportunity wasted.
Fast forward to the 9th...the tying run is on 2B and Seattle's most dangerous hitter is up. Intentional walk, right? Of course not...competence is too easy. Home run...game over. Incredibly, Girardi's excuse for falling asleep was he didn't wan't Ichiro's speed on 1B as the winning run. So, because he feared a career 91 OPS+ hitter's ability to strike a gapper, he pitches to a 117 OPS+/.333 BA hitter and risk the game tying hit. Girardi's ignorance was rewarded twofold...Ichiro didn't just get a hit...he went deep.
These are the types of games that fuel late season colapses. With Boston's schedule so easy and the Yankees so difficult, it isn't outrageous to paint the scenario wherein this lead slowly vanishes. Of course, even if you are of the mindset that the division is a lock, Girardi once again showed us what he'll do (or won't do) in a close post season game.
Everyone keeps pointing to AJ or Joba as the keys in the post season, but the team's biggest weakness by far is the incompetence of the manager. Even if they do manage to win the division and keep homefield, they'll still need to overcome Girardi's awful game management in the playoffs. How incredible and infuriating that this talented team can't be led by a quality manager.
[119] Yes, if they can win these two series, they should be fine. Of course, the Yankees are sending Joba-lite, Andy of an injury, Gaudin and AJ in the next 4 after CC. Meanwhile, the Red Sox get to feast on the Orioles and Royals.
williamnyy23 (re: 121): http://bit.ly/2qyN7O
[123] That's great. I hadn't seen that before.
[123] oh wow classic!