"A New York Treasure" --Village Voice

Win it ‘n’ Split

Big football day in New York as the Yanks try to leave Seattle with a win. Time to come out slammin’, hackin, and mashin.


Bring it on, boys.

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Show/Hide Comments 1-100
1 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:01 pm

I'm glad Po is back, though i'm not pleased he still has a stiff neck, due to his stoopid fight...

Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Cabrera RF
Gardner CF

2 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:10 pm

Pete Abe: Gaudin has replaced Mitre as the 5th starter.

3 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:13 pm

[2] lucky days are here again

rich - from the last thread, has cone been saying hughes should remain in the pen permanently, or just he thought that was a good idea this year.
i would love cone to be more involved with the pitchers in any capacity, but yes, not if he thinks hughes should be in the pen permanently.

4 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:17 pm

[3] He made a comment within the last week or so to the effect that Hughes had the fastball and the mental makeup for the pen. His quote was something like (paraphrasing) "To me, that says reliever."

5 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:19 pm

I can't believe Teix didn't bunt! Now they've utterly wasted an out. Nice job, Joe.

6 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:21 pm

[4] thanks. ugh - i think i might have to pretend he didn't say that so that coney remains the man in my book.
he seems to be able to pinpoint what is wrong with the pitchers almost immediately, maybe if he had been doing these games recently it wouldn't have taken a month to spot a hitch in joba's delivery.

7 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:21 pm

does A-Rod still get the business from the Seattle crowd?

8 monkeypants   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:21 pm

[2] Boy, I don't know about that move. Mitre has been soooo unlucky. They should give him a chance to show what he can really do.

9 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:22 pm

[7] yes, very vociferously.

10 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:22 pm

[5] i can't believe there wasn't a double steal! ; )

11 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:22 pm


12 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:23 pm

I can't believe A-Rod didn't swing at that pitch!
One more pitch like that and the Yankees are disqualified from playoff contention.

13 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:24 pm

[6] Eiland should simply listen to Cone's analysis from YES and apply it. or, don't these guys see each other and talk? i mean, Cone's part of the "team" - he should have some input, even from the booth.

14 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:24 pm

I can't believe about three more things, but I'll leave them to everyone's imagination.

15 rbj   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:24 pm

Damn, I hate watching the score truck drive by.

16 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:24 pm

[8] mp - i thought you knew a lot about baseball. they are clearly moving him to the pen where he can pitch in the second most important inning in the game - that will really let him show what he can do.

that was kind of a wasted opportunity

17 monkeypants   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:26 pm

[16] Yeah, I see your point. I'm still confused, though---which is the second most important inning of the game, the ninth or the eighth?

18 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:27 pm

[17] Wouldn't it have to be the second? Why do they call it "the second inning", anyway?

19 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:29 pm

Do we know how many innings Joba is allowed this afternoon?

20 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:30 pm

[18] because there are only 2 outs in that inning and it goes by in a second. jeesh, doesn't anybody know anything about baseball around here?!

21 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:31 pm

[17] the ninth is only important during a save situation. the eighth is the most important. the seventh is the second most important.

22 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:31 pm

[19] at least 5. then again, if he sucks through 3 and throws 4,726 pitches, he'll give way to Mitre to "press his luck".

23 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:31 pm

[19] Pete Abe says at least 5.

24 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:32 pm

what's going on? everything is frozen and Matsui is still up. i'm guessing we're like in the 4th by now...?! : /

25 joe   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:32 pm

God, JD throws like a girl. Even the way he picks the ball up and moves his body as he winds up to throw looks girly.

26 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:33 pm

That's not good.

Anyone know what the Joba carnival sideshow rules are today?

27 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:33 pm

I'm guessing they told him to "attack the zone" and now he's thinking, "I attacked the zone, what the hell do they want?"

28 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:33 pm

that was a bp pitch

29 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:34 pm

[24] Back-to-back doubles for the M's with two out.

30 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:34 pm

[25] i can't see the game, but i can completely envision that. yeah, it's true - completely girly. [no offense Ms. October!!!]

31 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:35 pm

[29] ugh. so i assume it's 1-0?

32 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:35 pm

oy vey

at this rate I'm going to be trying to get myself into Steelers/Bears by the 3rd inning

33 joe   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:35 pm

[31] 2-0 now... A lot of 2 out action

34 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:36 pm

By the way, remember when we decided that we didn't have to beat the Orioles?

The Red Sox disagree.

35 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:36 pm

[31] Uh, well, it was. Now it's 2-0 after a Beltre single.
But it looks like Gameday has come unjammed, so maybe you're getting the bad news.

36 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:37 pm

[30] none taken, many girls do throw like him, and it is shameful, especially for him, but also the girls

that train always throws me off

37 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:38 pm

I guess Joba didn't get the memo about the Mariners having an awful offense? My goodness, I dred Joba starts almost as much as ones by Sergio Mitre.

Meanwhile, the Angels and Red Sox won, so if the Yankees don't wake up in this game the lead will be down to 4 games in the loss column. With 6 tough games coming up, I really hope the Yankees can flip the switch back to on. Hopefully, Girardi doesn't have to learn the hard way that you don't take your foot off the gas in early September.

38 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:39 pm

[34] The division is over though. Girardi and so many others keeping telling us that so what's the point in winning any more games?

39 joe   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:43 pm

[38] I don't think this game is on girardi yet

40 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:45 pm

[39] Teixeira didn't bunt in that crucial situation in the first.

41 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:47 pm

shit, does joba have a new hitch in his delivery?

42 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:47 pm

[39] Girardi's overwhelming incompetence has resulted in 95 wins and a 6 game lead on September 20th...it's always on him.

43 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:48 pm

To this point, the story of this game is Joba's suboptimal command.

44 BrianLevy2020   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:49 pm

[43] But what about the fact that he's facing one of the most dominant lineups in the Bigs?

45 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:49 pm

[43] Is it command, or 'stuff'? What I mean is: is he missing on location a lot, or are the pitches just very hittable because of lack of movement?

46 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:49 pm

The 95 wins has to be viewed in the context of a $65 million payroll advantage.

47 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:49 pm

[39] No, but sending out the D Team to lose three of five to the likes of Baltimore and Toronto make these games must wins.

48 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:50 pm

[45] He's missing location with his fastball. His slider doesn't have consistent tilt.

49 Emma Span   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:50 pm

Why the Mariner Moose, specifically? Does anyone know?

Anyway, I'm going for a run... please try to get Joba on track by the time I'm back. Thanks.

50 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:50 pm

[39] Girardi only looms over the game when it's close. Joba's pitching today, so he might not get the chance to have an impact.

51 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:50 pm

[37] I'd like to see what he does next year when the Yankees aren't yanking him around all year long.

52 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:51 pm

There, Mark Teixeira and Joe Girardi! That's what you do with men on first and second and nobody out!

53 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:51 pm

[47] Today's game is a "must win"?

54 joe   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:51 pm


55 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:52 pm

You have to be kidding me? He wont walk Ichiro with the game on the line, but does it in the second inning? I think that says all we need to know about Girardi's ability to manage a game. Even he has no idea what his philosophy is.

56 BrianLevy2020   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:52 pm

[52] That wasn't about moving the runners. Wilson just feels sorry for Joba.

57 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:52 pm

Wow, I don't like that move at all. I guess everyone else does, but this puts a lot of pressure on Joba.

58 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:53 pm

Okay, so not everyone else likes it either.

59 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:54 pm

Cone says that Joba looks "too strong."

60 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:54 pm

[59] Heard that. Too strong for the breaking ball.

61 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:54 pm

[55] learning from his mistakes?

62 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:55 pm

Full count.
This is why I don't like the IBB.

63 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:55 pm

[46] the context of playing in the same division of a team with a $122 million payroll and a team that was in the World Series last year? Having a payroll advantage is hardly any sort of success guarantee, see the teams with the 2nd and 3rd highest payrolls in baseball this year.

[47] If a game where your magic number to clinch the playoffs is 1 and you have a 6 game lead with 12 to play is considered "must win", then you and I just have different definitions of "must win"

64 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:55 pm

There ya go. Sometimes I hate being right.

65 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:56 pm

[53] Yes. As noted, Girardi took his foot off the pedal last week, and the team has been sputtering along ever since, losing games and series to shitty teams while the Red Sox mow people down. A loss here would make it four games in the loss column while we head to Anaheim and Boston goes to Kansas City.

If the Yankees lose again today, their fifth loss in eight games against non contenders, can you promise me that they'll be able to turn it up in time to save the division?

66 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:57 pm

What a disaster. Just bring Edwar in Joe. You know you want to.

67 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:57 pm

Joba is really trying my patience.

68 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:57 pm

so is today mitre's "lucky" day?

69 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:57 pm

[65] There's no promising in baseball, Mattpat.

70 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:58 pm

wow, this sucks. at least he's not throwing a lot of pitches. he should be able to go 5 easily. t'ya right!

71 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:58 pm

What a joke...sliders until 3-2 and then not even close with a fastball. He is facing the Mariner's house money lineup and still can't have a good outing. This is getting to the point where the Yankees would be better off just shutting him down for the year. He simply is no longer effective. That noose is starting to get tight.

72 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:59 pm

Can Kennedy go? Might as well let him throw.

73 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:59 pm

[63] Payroll size matters in the regular season.

The Tigers are still in 1st.

The Angels are in 1st.

The Phillies are in 1st.

The RS? They're good.

The Mets have been decimated by injuries.

The Cubs have also had significant injuries.

74 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:59 pm

i'm glad Gamecast is still stuck at 2-0. i'm a-gonna pretend that's the score...

75 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:59 pm

Joba is a DOG.

76 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:59 pm

Holy smoke.
All because of that IBB to Ichiro!

77 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 4:59 pm

Four games in the loss column. But no reason to panic, right?

78 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:00 pm

holy crap. : o

next week is gonna suck...

79 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:00 pm

the scary part is he had a better outing last time, then something in his deliver was fixed, and now he is absolute garbage today

80 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:00 pm

looks like Gaudin might be our FOURTH starter here pretty soon...

81 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:00 pm

Epic fail.

82 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:00 pm

[77] I strongly, strongly encourage you to panic.

83 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:00 pm

[69] That's why its a managers job to do everything he can to win games. Which Joe Girardi has largely refused to do over the last week.

84 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:01 pm

[83] No, it's his job to do everything he can to give the Yankees their best shot in the post-season.

85 rbj   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:02 pm

Wow, I've been doing chores around the house the last couple of hours. Looks like I should continue doing that.

May the Giants at least spoil the Cowboys opener.

86 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:02 pm

[75] i was thinking more like: fucking idiot moron who sucks at pitching.

but that's me... : )

87 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:02 pm

[82] If you are in the Girardi camp of "it doesn't matter if we win the division, as long as we make the playoffs" I agree, there's no reason to panic.

I don't feel that way, and as I watch the Yankees slowly piss this division away against non contenders, it drives me up a wall.

88 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:02 pm

[65] Stop being so silly. The Yankees DO NOT have to win any more games. They already have 95 so who cares if they choke away the division. Winning two road series against Anaheim and Boston is no problem at all. With Texas losing, the Yankees should shut down Sabathia and have Mitre start on 3 days rest.

89 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:02 pm

Yanks are not out of this game if the pen can hold it where it's at.

90 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:02 pm

[73] I'm not saying it doesn't matter, but when you say the wins have to be viewed in context I just contend that that context also includes the fact that they will have played 38 games vs the two teams that were in game 7 of the ALCS last year.

[77] Lose 2 of 3 in Anaheim and it's officially "panic" time...not before that, no.

91 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:02 pm

[84] Like winning the division and ensuring home field advantage?

92 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:03 pm

[87] Panic over a tiny increase in the small chance of losing the Division (but making the playoffs) is irrational, but entertaining.

93 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:03 pm

[82] martyr starter!

94 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:03 pm

[90] This reminds me of last year, when people here were saying there was no reason to panic about that disaster of a team until the all star break.

95 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:04 pm

[91] That's one factor. Is it the only factor?

96 monkeypants   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:04 pm

[83] That’s why its a managers job to do everything he can to win games.

That's flat wrong, at least as you present it. The manager's job is to try to win the most games over the season, which sometimes mean resting starters here and there, not pitching your best reliever every single game, etc. But more importantly, the manager's job--the team's job--is to position itself for the postseason.

97 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:05 pm

[90] That's fair...of course losing 2 out of 3 usually qualifies as a successful series in Anaheim, especially with Pettitte being a question mark and Gaudin going in game 2.

98 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:06 pm

[92] Right...we all forgot to consult our handy BP post season odds. What a shame they actually play these games on the field instead of in a simulation.

99 monkeypants   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:06 pm

[94] I fail to see those two situations as comparable in any meaningful way.

100 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:06 pm

[94] you're comparing a team with the best record in baseball with 12 games left to play with a team that was 6 games out of first and in 3rd place at the break last year

Show/Hide Comments 101-200
101 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:07 pm

[98] Huh?
Oh, I get it. If they actually play the games, then all statistics can be ignored.

Thank you, Joe Morgan!

102 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:07 pm

[92] If the Yankees lose two of three to the Angels and the Red Sox win two of three against the Royals, Its four games, three in the loss column with three head to head games left. How small is the chance then?

103 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:08 pm

[102] I would be glad to tell you, but I'm pretty sure you're just kidding and you actually have no interest.

104 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:10 pm

[98] Remember when it was impossible for the Mets to piss away the division?

[99] Its the same "Pay No Attention to the Man behind the Curtain" philosophy.

105 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:11 pm

[101] Maybe one day they will invent robots to play this game...maybe.

106 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:13 pm

[104] I think you're confusing the impossible with the improbable.

Is it possible the Yankees finish in 2nd place? Yeah, of course it is. Of course so did the '06 Tigers and that sure seemed to hurt them once the playoffs started.

Is it probable? By any measure it is highly, HIGHLY improbable.

107 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:13 pm

[102] You're beating your head against a wall. Some people just refuse to accept that human beings play this game and individual situations have context. The fact of the matter is the Yankees are putting themselves in a position whereby they will have to put pedal to the metal in the final week...a situation made necessary because Girardi wanted to rest his players in early September.

108 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:14 pm

[105] Why don't you explain for us why the fact that they actually play the games means that we should ignore the statistics. I assume your explanation will not apply to games played by robots.

109 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:15 pm

It's bad enough that it's 7-0 and our stud prospect is stinking up the joint again. Do we really need to be subjected to an Edwar appearance as well?

110 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:15 pm

[107] Why don't you explain to us why the fact that human beings play the game means that we should ignore the statistics.

111 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:15 pm

[106] 10 days ago, who you have believed that the Yankees would lose 5 of 8 to the non contenders they had on the schedule?

112 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:16 pm

[108] Statistics measuring things that have happened, or mythical statistics generated by computer simulations?

113 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:16 pm

[109] I don't even know why Edwar is on the team.

114 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:16 pm

[113] We can all agree on that.

115 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:18 pm

[111] I am sure the super computer wouldn't have either, but as soon as I saw Girardi start break things down, that was exactly my fear. The Yankees were a locomotive. They were steamrolling every one, but once you slow them down, it's very hard to bring them back up to speed.

116 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:18 pm

[112] Using the former to make some kind of prediction about the future, either by the latter method or some other that you think is better.

117 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:18 pm

[90] I’m not saying it doesn’t matter, but when you say the wins have to be viewed in context I just contend that that context also includes the fact that they will have played 38 games vs the two teams that were in game 7 of the ALCS last year.

How does that mitigate the payroll advantage?

118 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:20 pm

[111] No, but they also hadn't really lost 5 of 8 to anyone since mid-June...you'd have to figure it was going to happen at some point. Hell even '98 had a cold snap in September. It might as well be at a time when it is all but a mortal lock that this team is playoff bound.

119 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:21 pm

[115] william, at the risk of sounding rude, that is crazy talk. Baseball is a game of streaks that really can't be explained. The 2000 Yanks were going through the slump of all slumps heading into the playoffs and they won it all. Hell, the Twins should've beaten the Tigers today with that reasoning but they're 2 outs away from losing. I don't necessarily agree with some of the managing decisions that have been made and want to see the level of play pickup, but I don't think your theory holds water.

120 monkeypants   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:21 pm

[112] True, but past events can be used, reasonable, to predict the future, right (i.e., you CAN predict baseball)? A .320 hitter has a far better chance of getting a hit than a .250 hitter, we might predict, based on past events. So, teams with huge leads and a few games left in the season hold those leads the vast majority of the time. That's what makes, say, the 1978 Red Sox collapse so remarkable...or the 2004 Yankees playoff collapse for that matter.

121 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:24 pm

[110] The Yankees aren't playing good baseball. The manager pulled the plug on September 11, and they've had a bitch of a time trying to get back into full gear. They've punted three straight series now. Do the stats you're willing to present take into account that the Yankees can't beat bad teams right now, their chief competition is mowing everyone down, and the Yankees are going to play in a building they can't win in?

122 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:24 pm

[116] Relying on simulation methodology for a specific scenario is folly. Sim data is useful for generic observations, but when you have specific variables at hand, it is lazy to ignore them. For example, I am sure the odds of Joba pitching well were probably pretty good when you consider his whole body of work. However, when you factor in how poorly he has pitched lately and the foolish way he has been handled, it isn't a surprise that he imploded. If I was creating my own simulation based, I would have predicted he would pitch poorly. Now, you can dismiss my knowledge of the game and ability to make predictions, but that doesn't mean I am going to ignore what I see because a computer program says 95% of teams with a 6 game lead and 14 games left win the division.

Furthermore, as I stated before, if the Yankees need to pitch CC in the final weekend to hold the division, that would be very harmful. Your odds generator doesn't factor that into the equation.

123 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:25 pm

[117] I just think that when nearly a quarter of your schedule comes against the class of the league it is just as much of an indicator of a team's strength as payroll is...if not more.

124 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:27 pm

You know, no wonder no one had a word to say about the game: I was in the wrong thread!

Here you all are.


Not looking good, eh?

125 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:28 pm

[119] I am sure Mets fans thought it was crazy talk too. The 2000 Yankees were 2-time champions and the teams chasing them were not as good as the current Red Sox. The comparison fails...which is what I mean by neededing to consider the current context. The main things relevant to this situation are the current status of both teams and their schedules.

126 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:28 pm

Oh God, is Mitre warming?

127 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:29 pm

[123] If that's true, then the RS and especially TB deserve even more credit given that they must compete against the class of the league with comparative payroll constraints.

128 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:31 pm

[125] Oakland and Seattle were very good playoff teams and the Mets were good as well. The Yanks are a lock to make the playoffs, the concern would be the outcome of the playoffs and while I would certainly welcome home field advantage and the East crown, the greater concern is the playoffs. And I'm saying the idea that "letting the foot off the gas" hinders future performance holds no water. The Mets did not have the Wild Card to fall back on.

129 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:32 pm

I love how Ichiro does precisely what I keep telling my kids not to do: spinning his body around on the follow-through so as to drill a hole to China.

130 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:34 pm

[128] The Yankees weren't being chased in the division by those teams. Mediocre Boston and Jays teams were in pursuit.

Also, the reason the Mets didn't have the WC to fall back on is because they kept losing games against awful teams that every simulation probably predicted they would win. If you don't think the Yankees have been impacted by the more relaxed approach of late, I can't convince you otherwise. I just wish Girardi hadn't been of that mindset because then I don't think the Yankees would have dropped 5 games to the Orioles, Mariners and Jays. I am sorry, but I just don't accept that teams have to lose because of some kind of law of averages.

131 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:35 pm

[125] The Mets comparison fails as well, that was a team playing without a net...it was division or bust for them, which colors the whole scenario. That is just not the case here.

[127] Sure they deserve plenty of credit, until the Rays completely shit the bed and lost 11 straight they were having a playoff-caliber year in almost any other division.

The Sox...eh. I mean at that point we're basically getting into a pissing contest about who drives the bigger Rolls Royce.

132 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:36 pm

[129] it is amazing he is able to hit so well like that

133 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:38 pm

[131] The Mets did have the WC to fall back on actually. For most of their collapse, they actually had a bigger lead in the WC. The Mets collapse was so epic that they managed to blow 2 big leads. Of course, the main point is that when you get late in the year, it really does become a different ball game.

134 ms october   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:39 pm

mitre has a strange build for a pitcher

135 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:39 pm

Can we at least make this mf a ballgame? I mean, just because they scored seven doesn't mean we should score zero.

136 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:40 pm


137 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:41 pm

[133] well the X-Factor was that you had a team outside their division rampaging for the Wild Card and winning something ungodly like 28 of 30...you don't have that in play this time around. So really I don't think this is comparable to that at all.

138 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:41 pm

Joba is pitching on Sunday in Fenway. That's very scary.

139 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:43 pm

[137] If we were talking about making the playoffs, I would agree with you. From my standpoint, however, losing this division would amount to the same outcome because I don't think the Yankees can go through Anaheim and Boston to reach the World Series.

140 regnad kcin   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:44 pm

Objects in the mirror may be closer than they appear. (see: Phillies, Philadelphia - 1964)

PS. Joba is due to pitch Saturday, but not in Fenway. The series is in NY.

141 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:44 pm

Meanwhile, the Yankees don't seem to interested in their ABs against Ian Snell. Gas up the charter...California here the Yankees come.

142 monkeypants   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:44 pm

[139] That's because they can't beat the Big Boys?

143 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:45 pm

[140] Right...I meant against the Red Sox.

144 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:45 pm

[138] *wincing*

145 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:46 pm

[142] Heh heh heh heh.

146 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:46 pm

[142] Because these teams are so evenly matched that I can't see the Yankees beating both Boston and Anaheim on the road. Maybe one, but two seems very difficult.

147 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:47 pm

[122] I'd be very happy to consider your baseball knowledge and ability to make predictions. But I haven't seen any predictions, so we can't test them.
On the other hand, Baseball Prospectus makes lots and lots of predictions, and they beat the living snot out of self-styled experts who insist that they have lots of baseball knowledge.

It would be extremely stupid to overuse CC in order to win the Division, by the way. Winning the Division would be good, but it's much less important than having CC ready to go in the post-season. If Girardi does overuse CC in order to win the Division, I will be the first to criticize him. (Okay, maybe not the first, but among the loudest.)

148 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:49 pm

I don't think the comparison with the Mets is outlandish at all. The Mets' collapse really was epic, that's the key thing to remember. For every Mets Collapse there have been dozens and dozens of Division Leaders Stumbling but Holding their Lead.

149 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:50 pm

Meanwhile, can't we score a lousy run today?

Or maybe five or six?

150 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:51 pm

[148] so isn't that exactly why the comparison is a little outlandish?

151 Rich   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:52 pm

[131] Sure they deserve plenty of credit, until the Rays completely shit the bed and lost 11 straight they were having a playoff-caliber year in almost any other division.

Then the Yankees don't deserve as much credit for having to play them this season despite what they accomplished last season.

152 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:52 pm

[147] Can you cite examples of BP "beat the living snot" out of anything, much less an informed expert? Just curious because when I've read articles measuring their accuracy, it isn't much better than even some basic projection systems.

153 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 5:54 pm

[151] why wouldn't the Yankees deserve credit for playing well all year against a team that by almost any standard was having a very good year up until Labor Day?

154 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:01 pm

[150] Oh, well, maybe I'm confused about what a "comparison" means. I think the situations are comparable. The Mets collapsed. Plainly this doesn't mean we should expect the Yankees to collapse; to the contrary, since almost every team in history in the Mets' situation went on to make the post-season.

155 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:01 pm
156 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:02 pm

The reason the Yankees are losing is because Joba pitched like crap and for some reason they're not hitting Snell (but more because Jobas pitched like crap). Not because Girardi let up on the gas. Did they just arbitrarily put it together last night and then it fell apart again today?

157 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:03 pm

Looks like BP had the Indians, A's, Mets and Cubs winning their divisions, so if they think the Yankees will as well, then that makes me feel even less confident.

158 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:03 pm

[152] But I'd be quite happy with "basic prediction systems" in this case, too, by the way. I think pretty much any sane prediction system will be in close agreement on the odds of the Yanks' losing the Division or failing to make the playoffs.

159 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:04 pm

[157] What did they say were the odds that the Indians would win their Division? That's what I think is interesting. I think we all know that nobody can very confidently predict who will win a given Division.

160 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:05 pm

[156] And that, particularly Joba, is what it would make more sense to worry about, too, by the way.
Who's our fourth starter going to be? Do we have to take the stretched-out series after all, so we can make do with three starters?

161 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:06 pm

[155] That doesn't show what you stated. It suggests PECOTA is much better than the Steve Phillips of the world, but not much than a Rob Neyer, for example, who is among the few "informed experts" listed.

162 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:08 pm

can we all just agree that it was a good idea for me to start Willis McGahee today?? I mean we can all get on the same page about that, right?

163 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:08 pm

[156] I accept that Joba isn't a very good pitcher now. There is nothing that Girardi can do about that now. The reason the lead is getting thin is not because of today's game alone. It's because he feel asleep on Friday, had no interest in winning the Jeter game against the Orioles and let Mitre get torched against the Jays (again). Had the Yankees won two of those three games, they would be facing a 6 game lead, not 4.

164 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:10 pm

I'm thinking that a 1 bedroom apartment with a rooftop pool in Seattle is probably something like $500/month

165 joe   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:11 pm

YEAH! Run on the board!

166 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:11 pm

[163] Just the fact that we keep seeing Edwar Ramirez in a pennant race is alarming.

167 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:11 pm

[158] Making the playoffs is a red herring. No one is arguing they wont do that. Furthermore, for 10 days now I have been arguing that the Yankees should not be letting up because if they did, the division would come back into play. That is close to happening. Even if they still hold on, I think there will be a negative impact if that happens. You seem to think they just need to make the playoffs. I completely disagree. I hope I am not proven right.

168 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:13 pm

[161] Better than Neyer, not much better.
If Rob Neyer writes that the Yankees chance of blowing the Division is 30%, I'd take that seriously. He pays a whole lot of attention to statistics.

169 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:14 pm

[167] They don't "just need to make the playoffs". They need to do whatever will give them the best chance at winning in the playoffs.
Home field advantage is nice, but it's just one factor, in one game, in any given series. It is very silly to "panic" over the chance of losing that advantage.

170 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:14 pm

[160] If you finish with best record, you don't need a 4th starter, but still so many don't see the importance.

171 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:15 pm

[164] heh heh heh heh.

172 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:17 pm

[167] I think at this point, if/when they hold on to the division, it will be because they played strong baseball over the last 12 games, so I'm not worried about playoff implications there.

If They keep limping forward and back door their way into the playoffs, I'd be very worried.

173 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:18 pm

[169] It isn't one advantage...not only do you lose the extra home game, but you get a more difficult opponent in the ALDS and you lose the ability to pick your series format. Those are three significant factors.

174 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:18 pm

[172] I think thats fair enough, but thats really more of a conversation/panic for the last 4-5 days of the season

175 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:18 pm

[169] So you think losing a nine game lead on September 11 might not necessarily be a negative?

176 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:21 pm

[174] If its still an issue during the last four or five days of the season, then I think I think we go right back to asking why the Yankees hit the breaks on September 11 and caused a fairly serious tailspin to a team that was rolling.

177 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:22 pm

[173] True.

[175] You interpret what I wrote there to mean it wouldn't be a negative?

178 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:23 pm

[176] That 9/11 would be the turning point has some symbolism, but what I think is even more symbolic was Girardi's decision to send his players home DURING a game. I really think that day set a bad tone...the vibe after that game was basically, Jeter has the record, now we can break it down until October.

179 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:24 pm

[176] sure, but as it stands right now we're analyzing a tailspin that hasn't actually happened yet

180 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:25 pm

[177] You said it would be a silly thing to panic over.

181 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:26 pm

[179] I think we might be in the middle of it.

182 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:26 pm

[178] If this team loses in the playoffs, the fact that Joe Girardi sent players home early during a rain delay that happened a month earlier will most likely be way down on the list of reasons.

183 BrianLevy2020   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:27 pm

Anyone else want to see IPK and Z-Mac get some regular season starts?

184 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:28 pm

The Yankees seem to be in shutdown mode for this game.

185 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:29 pm

[180] So, just to clear this up:
Anything that in any way increases the chances of anything negative is something to panic over.

Got it.

186 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:30 pm

[182] It's not the specific event. It's the mindset that has the chance to author an major collapse, which in turn would make the road to the World Series that much harder. Even if the chances are reduced by 1%, it never made sense to break things down in mid-September.

187 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:30 pm

[183] Not unless the Yankees really have no interest in winning the division.

188 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:31 pm

i'm kinda in between everyone here. i really do think it's important that we win the division and have the best record for home field advantage.

this week coming up is gonna be incredibly difficult...and quite telling.

we shouldn't be punting games vs. lame offenses like Seattle's. today is on Joba though, not GI Joe.

the flip to all this is what the other teams do. who knows what Scioscia/Francona will end up doing. they might not gun for best record, be happy they're in the playoffs, and rest some regulars.

"bottom line" is this: we need to win some ball games!

189 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:33 pm

[182] I think that entire game would be the turning point. He left Marte in to die, he brought Edwar Ramirez into a close game, and then he sent everyone home. It shows that he either didn't care about the division, or he thought the lead was insurmountable.

If they lose the division and it costs them in the playoffs, that game will be the start of the collapse.

190 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:33 pm

Boy I can't wait for Joba to tell us how well he pitched and give credit to Griffey for hitting a good pitch. If Gaudin pitches well on Tuesday, I'd consider shutting Joba down or trying to see if he can salvage something in the bullpen. At this point, I don't want to see Joba in a game the Yankees need to win. His performance today was disgraceful. This Mariner lineup is a notch above brutal, as evidenced by Mitre's performance against it.

191 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:35 pm

[185] If blowing a division lead in historic fashion isn't something to panic over, what the hell is?

192 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:37 pm

It should be emphasized again that the Red Sox have 11 games against the Royals, Blue Jays and Indians. That's about as easy a schedule as you can get. The Yankees have 3 games in Anaheim and 3 games in Tampa. The wild card could be Greinke. If the Yankees face him and Boston doesn't that could be a huge two game swing.

193 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:50 pm

It's 7-1. The Yankees have almost had a 9th inning rally as big (short circuited by Girardi ignornace). What is gained by essentially quitting on this game? One defensive inning for the regulars? Girardi continues to foster a mindset that is leading this team toward a collapse.

194 regnad kcin   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:55 pm

[192] Greinke goes against Byrd on Tuesday. He won't face the Yankees.

195 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:58 pm

[191] Well, maybe a big chance of blowing the post-season.
But that's just me. I'm not telling you how to manage your panic.

196 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 6:58 pm

[194] sweet!

197 thelarmis   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:00 pm

[195] Panic Manager. i loves it! ; )

198 RIYank   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:03 pm

I am going to admit now that I hardly watched any of Sergio Mitre's pitching. Did it warrant his other-worldly line?

I guess nobody's around anymore. I'll go watch the Gridiron Sport that Shall Not be Named.

199 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:05 pm

[195] But don't you see?!?! We must panic!

Having a 5 game lead for the best record in baseball with 11 games left will be phase one in a elaborate scheme concocted by Joe Girardi, Terry Francona, Sergio Mitre, The Illuminati, ACORN, Kim Kardashian, and Chris "Mad Dog" Russo which will inevitably lead all of us into a long series of sleepless nights and having to play every single playoff game on the road with only 1 out in each inning and Teixeira and A-Rod both indefinitely suspended.

You may chose no to panic sir, but you just have your head in the sand.

200 Bellota   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:09 pm

Except for Tex and Mitre, the Yankee effort was pathetic! Joba needs to be in the bullpen at best. Or use him as trade bait in the off season.

Show/Hide Comments 201-209
201 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:11 pm

[199] heh ehhe heh heh heh heh heh heh.

1 out in each inning.

Heh hehe heh heh heh.

202 BuckFoston   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:14 pm

199 Ima let you finish but Kanye West is the best conspirator this year.

203 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:16 pm

[198] Mitre's performance was likely the result of facing an awful Mariner's lineup, which highlights the depths to which Joba has sunk.

204 JeremyM   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:26 pm

I would have to agree that I would work Joba out of the pen from here on out and see if he can't contribute from that end because he is lost as a starter right now. I don't really think it will work, but might as well try it.

205 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:30 pm

Quote from Joba, "It was ALL working"!! Is he serious? How do the Yankees allow this attitude to continue? If he thinks his performance is acceptable he needs a seriously rude awakening. Like IPK yesterday, Joba is either seriously arrogant or in serious denial.

Joba has become a serious DOG.

206 RagingTartabull   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:33 pm

[205] what did IPK say/do yesterday?

207 williamnyy23   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:37 pm

[206] I meant last season.

208 Mattpat11   ~  Sep 20, 2009 7:54 pm

[195] I agree with William. I think having to play road series against Anaheim and Boston represents a huge chance of blowing the playoffs.

209 randym77   ~  Sep 20, 2009 8:27 pm

[183.] Me. I don't want to see Joba pitching in the post-season. Let's see if Kennedy can do anything.

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver