Cash Money on the Ones and Twos
Posted on Nov 10, 2009 8:28 am
By Alex Belth
David Waldstein, writing for the Bats blog over at the Times, is at the GM Meetings.
Here’s Yankees GM, Brian Cashman:
“Over the last few years we’ve tried to improve the way we’ve gone about our decision making, and a part of that is sample size,” said Cashman, in Chicago for the general managers meetings. “I think you look at the broader perspective of what somebody’s abilities are. Jerry Hairston, for instance, is a free agent. If he had hit .700 in the World Series doesn’t necessarily mean that he would get an A-Rod contract. We’re thankful for the guys who did what they did, and if you had a great postseason, terrific.
“What they are when they went into October, that’s what they still are, regardless of how good or how poor they played in the postseason.”
I think it would be risky to keep both Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. I figure they are going to want to give Jorge Posada a bunch of at bats at DH which makes Matsui the tougher fit. Who would you keep? Would you lose both of them and go after Chone Figgins to play left instead of Damon?
Hmmmm.
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Figgins? Good god, no! A corner outfielder with a career slugging percentage of .388 is not what any team needs.
The new wrinkle to the Matsui or Damon debate is that Damon is a Type A free agent and Matsui is unranked (proof that the Elias-based ranking system is broken), meaning signing Matsui and letting Damon sign elsewhere will get them Matsui and two draft picks, while signing Damon and letting Matsui go elsewhere will get them Damon only.
Figgins is awful…I wouldn’t trade him straight up for the Type-A compensation (the awful part is an exaggeration, but the second part isn’t).
Also, it’s easy to say that you are going to give more DH ABs to Posada, but that also means more ABs to either Molina or Cervelli. That would be unacceptable, IMHO. The Yankees either need to bring back both Damon and Matsui OR bring back one of them in addition to another outfielder, whether it be a star like Holliday or someone like Marlon Byrd or Mike Cameron.
[1] I don’t know if the compensation will really play a role because I can’t see the Yankees offering Damon arbitration. Coming off the season he had, he is likely to blow his $13mn deal out of the water.
[2] I agree on DHing Posada. The drop in offense is far too great to use DH exclusively to rest Jeter, A-Rod, and Posada.
For all this talk about DHing older guys who need “rest”, no one in the traditional media ever says that would mean giving more PAs to Cervelli/Pena. Those kids are awesome backups, but if either of those guys gets over 200 PA, something has gone horribly wrong.
[1] [2] Another good reason to keep Matsui and let Damon walk – the likelihood of draft picks! I see 4 teams who could use Damon and do not have protected first round picks: Braves (20), Rangers (22), Giants (24), Cardinals (25) (though admittedly I think Holliday will re-sign in St Louis).
[2] I think the Yankees absolutely offer Damon arbitration. Yes, he could get a much higher salary for 1 year if he accepts, but that’s not what he wants. What he ants is a 3 or 4 year contract. Coming off the crazy-good season he just had – a season he’s not likely to duplicate even if he stays with the Yanks – he’d be very foolish to sacrifice a long-term deal to pocket extra cash for just 1 year now.
Just considering offense, the best 3 hitters on the market are probably Holliday, Bay, and Matsui. Holliday is, IMHO, a no-go. He’s a Boras client and Boras is shooting for the moon with him. Let the Mets or the Giants or someone desperate for OF help, and willing to blow the cash, get him. Or St Louis, who could very much still use his bat (and keeping him might signal to Pujols they are serious about winning soon).
I think the Yanks should let Damon go, and then bring back Nady on a one-year, incentive heavy deal. Then, if they can get Bay for a reasonable number of years (no more than 4), sign him, and use him in LF 2/5ths of the time, DH him the rest, with Nady playing lF.
If Bay can’t be had for a reasonable price/years, bring back Matsui.
I would not bring back both Matsui and Damon because the team is old enough. That’s a bit risky to me.
[3] Ack, Marlon Byrd? He’s this year’s Gary Matthews Jr. Stay away.
[3] If the Yankees are out of the bidding, Damon will have no leverage, so I think he’d jump at the chance to cash in at $15-16mn in arbitration. Abreu just signed a 2-year deal at $18mn, so if Boras reads that as Damon’s market value, he’d jump at the chance to cash in for another big 1-time payday and then hope the economy has rebounded enough that more teams are spending in 2011.
As a fan, I don’t mind if Damon comes back on an inflated contract for one season, but the Yankees had better be prepared for that eventuality if they offer him arbitration (also, remember that these contracts cost the Yankees an extra 40% premium). If Cashman does have a budget, I doubt the Yankees will offer him arbitration.
[4] Ack, Nady? Man, this really is a thin free agent class, isn’t it. The Yankees poor drafting of position players is getting exposed here. Nady is a league average bat at best.
Agreed with not bringing back both Matsui and Damon, but I’d be fine with Holliday for up to five years.
[4] Nady, coming off a serious injury, would be a very risky replacement for Damon. Also, he is right handed and hasn’t played much LF. The Yankees need to have a much better plan B in place if they are going to let Damon walk.
[5] Marlon Byrd’s OPS+ over the last three seasons is 112, 121 and 106. He can also play the corners very well and even CF decently. Byrd is a much better player than Matthews, and most importantly, would be much cheaper.
The Yankees should go one of two ways (barring an off the radar deal):
Plan A: Bring back Damon and Matsui on short-term deals and add another OF’er like Cameron or Byrd for one year (they could take some playing time from Melky and also serve as insurance in case of an injury).
Plan B: Sign Holliday, bring back Damon or Matsui as DH and promote Austin Jackson.
[1] Matsui is unranked? I didn’t know that. Cashman doesn’t usually let draft pick possibilities cloud his thinking. When he doesn’t want someone, that’s pretty much it.
While I see more overall value with Damon, by virtue of actually having a pair of operational legs, Matsui offers the organization something Damon doesn’t; Japanese money. Having a Japanese superstar on this team brought in tons of revenue (between tv, ads, etc.). They would probably have to kiss a portion of that goodbye. It would be interesting to see if it factors in, perhaps not to Cashman, but to the front office.
As much as I love Matsui-san, in the end, i would pick Damon……I think.
[10] I recall a recent article suggesting that the Japanese revenue was incremental to the teams (mostly Mariners, Red Sox and Yankees), but more meaningful to MLB as a whole in the form of international TV and merchandizing rights. In other words, I doubt the business side will have any say in the matter.
Agreed on all the points about the DH rest slot. I don’t understand why most baseball journalists seem to miss this. Rotating Jorge, Jeter, and A-Rod through the DH means a much lesser aggregate bat will be getting 400 plate appearances.
[9] I don’t know why your Plan A needs another OF when your plan B has A-Jax.
I really hope it’s as simple as:
- Damon on a two year Abreu deal. Think of him as a mostly DH in year two. Boras won’t settle for less.
– Matsui on a one-year incentive laden deal.
Even if both get hurt (even as Damon never gets hurt) I’m more than okay with A-Jax and Montero getting their initial development time in.
Then next year they can choose between Werth and Hawpe for the OF. I’d love to see Adam Dunn in the new park though.
[12] Plan B has AJax because it presumes that Holliday will play every day (and at a higher level), so AJax would be slowly introduced to the bigs in more of a support role. In Plan A, I think the Yankees need a more experienced and predictable OF’er because I expect Matsui and/or Damon to miss time.
The other bit is whether they could get a decent OF bat through a trade. Cano plus the pitching are the best chips.
Would the Dodgers ever trade Kemp or Ethier? They’ve got Manny and Pierre making big money in 2010.
Figgins: He will be 32, with a career line of .291 .363 .388 .751 (OPS+ of 99). He has averaged around 45 SB yr/ with a CS% of 25.5. His primary position is 3rd (55%), has played all OF positions (30%), 2nd base. and a bit everywhere else. He makes $6m/yr.
He is a nice player that can spell ARod, Cano and our OFers, but he (alone) is certainly not a replacement for JD by any means. If the Yanks dump BOTH JD and Matsui, how can they NOT go after Holliday/Bay?
[13] So A-Jax would ride the bench? I don’t see that happening.
But if Damon gets hurt, A-Jax is nice to have in AAA.
That’s where I don’t think there’s much risk in signing both Damon and Matsui. Where in previous years we were looking at Raul Mondesi types, the one bit of depth the Yankees have is at OF/DH and that not counting Miranda either. I’d be interested to see what he could do from the left side in YS 2.0.
I’ve got nothing. I hate the offseason.
Well, here’s something (but it’s still nothing): I think the Yanks will resign Damon and Matsui. Solid lefty hitters, solid clubhouse guys, you can expect they’ll drive in and score runs. They’re the kind of guys the Yanks tend to overvalue in terms of dollars and years. Wouldn’t be surprised or disappointed to see them stick around. Don’t ask me how long/how much. I have no idea, which is why I hate the offseason.
Random thought: could Yorvit Torreabla be convinced that backing up Posada is a better job than starting for, say, the Mets?
oh, one other thing (but it’s still nothing): don’t trade Cano.
If the Yanks dump BOTH JD and Matsui, how can they NOT go after Holliday/Bay?
I honestly think it really is one or the other or some combination of both.
If they sign Bay or Holliday, I hope they also go after Rafael Soriano. He’s not worth losing a first rounder, but if you’ve already lost it then he’s worth setup money.
I woke up at 6 am this morning screaming because I had a dream we traded Tex to Detroit for Granderson and minor leaguers…I am completely serious about this.
I said it yesterday, I’m fine with offering both deals if they’re not a day over two years. If I had to pick one it would be Damon because of his versatility, but he also concerns me since I think the demands of outfield play might make him more of an injury risk than a fulltime DH like Matsui.
As far as Figgins I’d stay as far away as humanly possible, make Lackey the top FA target and look at the trade market for bats.
As much as it pains me, I’d be okay with Nady on an incentive laden deal. He’s not great but he is consistently average.
Trading Cano for a bat is nuts. Whatever hitting you got from the new bat would be lost by dropping from Cano to Whomever.
I think there’s a big problem with bringing up Jackson as a backup: you’d be starting his clock. Bringing him up to sit on the bench or get a few at bats is in effect wasting a MLB season.
The Mets are allegedly not going to try to sign Holliday. Anyway that’s what Omar says.
I also think Johnny’s role in the lineup has to be introduced to the calculus. Whether or not you agree w/ the lineup configuration, the Yanks will be looking for speed and on base skills for the 2 hole. They don’t have an in-house solution, and Figgins seems like an inferior player to Damon.
Not sure who elseis out there, but I think Damon’s stock goes up because he can hit 2nd.
As I think about it, I don’t see how any team offers Matsui two years. Vlad will be an interesting comparison if he signs first.
[12] I agree completely with those two contract proposals. I work with several die-hard Japanese baseball fans and they are very confident Matsui would accept just about any reasonable 1 year contract from the Yankees. No idea if their confidence has any merit, but it made me feel better.
[24] I don’t know about 2 years guaranteed, but I can see 1 year and a team option/buyout for the 2nd. But there is always SOME team out there dumb enough to give 2 years guaranteed, you’d really put that past (lets just say) Kansas City?
Also I don’t think Matsui to Vlad is a fair comparison, not when you consider Matsui had a fully healthy and productive year and a big postseason. Neither of which Vlad had.
(12) – Adam Dunn is a banger, but makes Abreui look slick in the OF. He’s a DH only in the American League (although he can play SOME first base on a Giambi-sort of level)
[22] I don’t know. Kemp > Melky seems enough to warrant O.Hudson or even Kevin Russo.
[23] I agree completely with you. The further problem with Cano is he should be a #2 but I’m not sure he’s there yet. Their needs are so circumscribed in terms of a lefty LF /DH to hit #2 I don’t see how they don’t come back to Damon.
Does anyone know why Matsui isn’t listed in either tier of the Elias groupings? As Cliff [1] says, it shows that the system is broken. But it’s not just wrong, it’s weird.
Maybe Matsui would accept a year contract as they prepare Montero for the Bigs. From what I hear although they are converting him to catcher, he can’t…well, catch.
[30] It’s not so much that they’re converting him to catcher as that they’re deciding whether to convert him to something else. He was drafted as a catcher.
Is it his size that’s hindering Montero?
[16] He wouldn’t ride the bench, but play gradually by taking over Gardner’s role and expanding it as merited.
As for Miranda, I would not be anxious to see him play any meaningful role.
[17] Torreabla just turned down 2 years/$4.5mn. Considering that he isn’t a very good hitter (but definitely better than Molina), I think that makes him kind of expensive.
[22] I agree that trading Cano would not make sense in all but the most extreme cases, but wouldn’t let starting AJax’ arbitration clock get in the way of improving the team. Leave that strategy for the Rays.
[23] That’s a good point…I think the Jeter-Damon combination really did boost the offense, so there would be risk in breaking it apart.
[30] Montero’s catching skills are far from bad. Everyone is projecting he will be moved because of his body type and his potent bat.
2011 MLB FA OFers (excludes 2010 players) Scott Boris
Left fielders
Eric Byrnes (35)
David DeJesus (31) – $6MM club option with a $500K buyout
Adam Dunn (31)
Willie Harris (33)
Jason Kubel (29) – $5.25MM club option with a $350K buyout
Center fielders
Alfredo Amezaga (33)
Willie Bloomquist (33,SB)
Jody Gerut (33)
Willie Harris (33)
Mark Kotsay (35)
Willy Taveras (29)
Right fielders
Willie Bloomquist (33,SB)
Jose Guillen (35)
Brad Hawpe (32) – $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gabe Kapler (35)
Magglio Ordonez (37,SB) – $15MM club option
Jayson Werth (32)
Designated hitters
Pat Burrell (34)
Jason Kubel (29) – $5.25MM club option with a $350K buyout
David Ortiz (35) – $12.5MM club option
There are a few decents picks here, but this is not a group to get excited about, or not get someone now because of.
Random thoughts:
… William is 100% correct. JD will jump at arb and 1/$15m+
… M.Byrd is not as bad as GMJr… more like Nady on Red Bull
… Jeter aginst RHP: .311 .381 .446 .827 (career)
… Pena aginst RHP: .333 .362 .456 .817 (95 PA… YES….SSS!)
NO NO NO!!!!. I am NOT suggesting Pena can replace Jeter. What I’m saying is if we rest/DH Jeter 20 games against RHP, that considering Pena’s better defense, he is NOT a TERRIBLE replacement. When you rest a regular, there is always a downgrade, but Pena is not a black hole. If the Yanks are THINKING about keeping Pena, he must get SOME playing time.
… In 2011, resting Posada from Catching may not be an option as much as an imperative. Hopefully, Montero fills in nicely, but I think you can’t expect more then 100 games Catching for Po. Further, resting him more may make him more productive. And lets not forget that if Brains spells Po 49 games in 2010, that’s a substancial defensive upgrade. (Let’s be honest… Po’s defense is literally evaporating before our eyes).
If we are truly building a dynasty, considering the FA market (2010,2011) and our total lack of OFers on the farm, is ‘overpaying’ Holliday/Bay by $4M/yr REALLY that horrible? Is Teix overpaid? I’m don’t know, but I don’t care. He helped us to the PS this year. There is NO impact OFer is the Yankees’ vision for 2 or more years.
Cano 10:$9M, 11:$10M, 12:$14M (opt), 13:$15M (opt)
This is a decent deal, but not a steal. It’s a lot for most other teams, and this will lessen his trade valsue, in terms of what we get back.
[33] yeah, he turned down basically Molina money and he’s a much better hitter, and probably at least as good defensively. how about 2 years/6.5 million?
Even if it’s not Torrealba I think the Yanks have to upgrade on Molina.
I think we got very lucky with Posada’s health this year, and of all the position players, he’s the most likely to miss time, right?
Cervelli’s a nice 3rd stringer to have around. Montero’s not ready. Mauer’s not happening. So who’s a good upgrade over Molina (who despite his bat has substantial defensive value)?
“Cano plus the pitching are the best chips. ”
An under-achieving Cano has posted a .818 career OPS at 2nd base. The very talented Kemp (2 yrs younger) has posted a .826 career OPS. But you want to give away pitching also? Are peple who don’t like Cano representing his current and future talent correctly?
I understand some people want to ‘dump’ Cano, but just about any replacement is a downgrade, and a possible black hole. There are literally TONS of players who got better at 27. Carlos Pena was in the MINORS at 27. How valuable is Posada as a Catcher? Top 3 every year? Well, so is Cano, except Cano is still youngish, has very good D (unlike Po) regardless of URZ (a flawed stat) and has a great arm and great ability with the DP… which does not show up on stats… But we have ALL seen it for years.
[35] I really don’t understand something. We know the Yanks have money, but also want to keep the payroll where it is or reduce it… so they must spend wisely. You want to spend $3m on a BACKUP player… but won’t overpay Holliday by about the same amount… an everyday impact player for a position we have nothing for?
The mere thought of trading Cano is madness.
[34] Pena’s sample size is incredibly small (he has had a BABIP of .385 against righties), so you really can’t make an informed decision based upon it. I see no reason to make playing time for him…if he makes the roster, there is no reason he can’t continue in the role of an as-needed utility infielder.
[35] Before last season, Torrealba was not that much better than Molina. I wouldn’t give him more than Molina money.
[37] it’s the years, OYF, the years. I’m talking about a 2 year deal for a backup catcher who’d make roughly a million dollars a year more than Molina..
Completely different discussion than Holliday.
[36] Right now, Cano is an all star caliber player. If he only improves incrementally, he’ll be nearing Hall of Fame level. So, no, I don’t think the Yankees should be in the market to trade Cano unless a team wants to offer a similarly talented hitter and they throw in some pitching.
I really think you’d have to be blown away to make a deal for Cano
[39]
Molina 2009
$2.125 million
155 PA .217/.292/.268
10 year career .235/.277/.332
Torrealba 2009
$3.7 million
242 PA .291/.351/..380
9 year career: 255/.315/.390
I’d say he’s a upgrade over hip hip Jose, and if Posada were to get hurt, he’d be worth the extra couple million.
“He can say whatever he wants, but that’s not what’s going to happen.”
[20] “I woke up at 6 am this morning screaming because I had a dream we traded Tex to Detroit for Granderson and minor leaguers…I am completely serious about this.”
ha hah ah ah ha ha ha ah ah !!!
That’s priceless.
Let’s hope you’re no Tiresias.
Why would we trade Cano? He hasn’t hit his prime? I know he can be lackadaisical, how much better can we do if we have to give up other players for someone superior? I don’t think it’s worth it.
I, personally don’t think that Cano would hit well in the two hole. Jeter is already a free-swinger, as is Cano. We don’t need a 1-2 punch who doesn’t even work the count. Damon was ideal in the 2 hole because he fouled off pitches one after the other, giving the big bats an opportunity to see a lot of pitches before their at-bats. Damon is also zippy.
[42] I’m ready to be blown away. After all The Great Cano is going to be “a future batting champion” and [41] has him on the way to Cooperstown!
Robbie Alomar, he ain’t nothin’ compared to The Great Cano. Watch out Joe Morgan–here he comes!
So Seatlle, how about King Felix for this future batting champion and HOFer?
[47] if Seattle says “Felix is your’s for Cano, A-Jax, and something else” well then where do I sign?
I’m not calling him “untradeable”, I’m just saying that he’s good enough where you can/should only trade him for the absolute highest level of talent.
[48] Well, for our “future batting champion” and HOF 2B, I would expect nothing less!
But you’re onto it. This is the kind of deal involving Cano that C-Money should be sniffing around for. And I think its out there.
“this used to be my playground . . . ”
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