"A New York Treasure" --Village Voice

What are the Chances?

Our man Jay Jaffe has a guest spot at New York magazine this week and looks to see if the 2009 Yanks have a shot at success in the playoffs

It’s all about the secret sauce, don’t ya know.

mor

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19 comments

1 Shaun P.   ~  Aug 24, 2009 1:09 pm

Before clicking through, I seem to recall the Yanks leading the world in secret sauce . . .

Yep, thought so. Though I wonder if the FRAA part of the sauce holds up, given the changes Clay Davenport made to it.

2 Jay Jaffe   ~  Aug 24, 2009 1:35 pm

The FRAA changes to which you refer are based on play-by-play defensive data. They're used in this year's BP annual, but the numbers on the site and in the article are the old version, warts and all.

3 Shaun P.   ~  Aug 24, 2009 2:02 pm

[2] Thanks for the prompt response, Jay!

So we don't know yet how the FRAA changes will affect the secret sauce, or if they will. I can live with that.

4 RIYank   ~  Aug 24, 2009 4:27 pm

This is kind of interesting:

Speaking today on the Dan Patrick radio show, a day after his surprisingly effective start for the St. Louis Cardinals, former Red Sox pitcher John Smoltz said his new Cardinals teammates told him during warmups that he was tipping his pitches and helped him correct the problem. Smoltz said fellow pitcher Chris Carpenter was the first one to notice.

"If I've been tipping them in my bullpen, I've been tipping them on the mound."

[...]

Smoltz said he did not blame his former Boston teammates for his failure, saying that he himself was trying to hard to succeed with the Red Sox, but the comments about tipping pitches are sure to raise eyebrows, and the suggestion that Boston players should have noticed the same thing.

5 OldYanksFan   ~  Aug 24, 2009 4:46 pm

In response to thoughts of Matsui's health in the future....
He can NOT play the OF at all. He can't even stay healthy, and needs regular rest, as a DH. In the OF, he would make Swisher look like Ichiro.

I don't know if this tells you anything, but the Yanks have nicknamed Matsui's knees. The left is 'Pacific' and the right is 'Atlantic''.

6 OldYanksFan   ~  Aug 24, 2009 4:48 pm

They only showed Smoltz's Ks on BBTN, but his ball had tremendous movement on it. He looked like a stud. Yeah, he faced a bad lineup, but that doesn't account for how good his pitches looked.

7 Shaun P.   ~  Aug 24, 2009 4:50 pm

[4] Oh, so that's what they call pitching against a crappy hitting team in the weaker league and in the greatest pitchers' park in MLB now?

Whatever you say, Smoltz. Whatever you say.

Brad Penny dreams about escaping the AL and face the Padres in Petco.

8 Raf   ~  Aug 24, 2009 5:18 pm

Yeah, I don't buy that "tipping pitches" excuse at all.

9 weeping for brunnhilde   ~  Aug 24, 2009 5:39 pm

Is it actually true that Mo is "frequently summoned into eighth inning jams?"

My sense is that even when he is called upon to get more than three outs, he rarely enters a game with runners on.

Or maybe I'm wrong.

10 Shaun P.   ~  Aug 24, 2009 5:58 pm

[8] Smoltz's next start will come on a full 5 days' rest, when he faces the offensive powerhouse known as the Washington Nationals - the team with the fewest road wins of any MLB team.

Then he gets to face the Pirates: 25th in MLB in R, OBP, and SLG.

Too bad the Red Sox couldn't stack their rotation to only pitch Smoltz against such crappy teamsspot that he was tipping pitches.

11 RIYank   ~  Aug 24, 2009 6:01 pm

[10] Yeah, but the Nats are fourth in the NL in runs scored. It's a real test, I'd say.

Jay, great photo in the article. (Not a bad one here, either.)

12 Diane Firstman   ~  Aug 24, 2009 6:34 pm

Across town, it just keeps spinning downward for the Mets.

Francoeur tears a ligament in his left thumb yesterday, but says he's gonna play with it.

And now ... this:
http://tinyurl.com/nwve87

Johan Santana was scratched from his next scheduled start because of discomfort in his pitching elbow, the latest injury to a star player on the depleted New York Mets.

Santana's setback is particularly alarming for the fourth-place Mets, who are counting on the two-time Cy Young Award winner to lead their rotation for years to come.

"He has not been throwing between starts for quite awhile," New York manager Jerry Manuel said Monday after his team's 6-2 loss to Philadelphia. "I would say since before the All-Star break. He has been pitching with this problem, but not with the level of discomfort he has now. ... Now, it concerns him."

Santana had been slated to pitch Tuesday night in Florida. Instead, the left-hander will be examined by Mets medical director Dr. David Altchek, and right-hander Nelson Figueroa will start against the Marlins.

13 Chyll Will   ~  Aug 24, 2009 6:51 pm

[12] I'll bet injuries on the Mets is like yawning to everyone else.

14 RIYank   ~  Aug 24, 2009 7:07 pm

PECOTA is projecting the Yankees for 101 wins.

About time Clay caught up with Williamny...

15 Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO   ~  Aug 24, 2009 8:45 pm

hey jonnystronglegs if you are out there tonight..are you based in Osaka? The High-School Tournament games start early in the morning and go no all day, people often have the tv on in the office to follow, and every coffe shop/barber/izakaya will have it on too..

16 JeremyM   ~  Aug 24, 2009 10:01 pm

[7] To be fair, most of his outs were recorded by the K, which presumably would be K's anywhere, right? Petco had nothing to do with those outs.

17 Yankster   ~  Aug 24, 2009 10:24 pm

Nice story Jaffe. No piffle.

18 Raf   ~  Aug 25, 2009 12:13 am

[16] Smoltz was striking batters out as a Red Sox too, 7+ per inning

19 Raf   ~  Aug 25, 2009 12:31 am

[18] um, that's 7+ per 9 innings...

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver